Enhanced tuberculosis diagnosis with computer-aided chest X-ray and urine LAM in adults with HIV admitted to hospital (CASTLE study): A cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PHIV) admitted to hospital have high mortality, with tuberculosis (TB) being the major cause of death. Systematic use of new TB diagnostics could improve TB diagnosis and might improve outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a cluster randomised trial among adult PHIV admitted to Zomba Central Hospital, Malawi. Admission-days were randomly assigned to: enhanced TB diagnostics using urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) antigen tests (SILVAMP-LAM, Fujifilm, Japan and Determine-LAM, Alere/Abbot, USA), digital chest X-ray with computer aided diagnosis (dCXR-CAD, CAD4TBv6, Delft, Netherlands), plus usual care ("enhanced TB diagnostics"); or usual care alone ("usual care"). The primary outcome was TB treatment initiation during admission. Secondary outcomes were 56-day mortality, TB diagnosis within 24-hours, and undiagnosed TB at discharge, ascertained by culture of one admission sputum sample. FINDINGS: Between 2 September 2020 and 15 February 2022, we recruited 419 people. Four people were excluded post-recruitment, leaving 415 adults recruited during 207 randomly assigned admission-days in modified intention-to-treat analysis. At admission, 90.8% (377/415) were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) with median (IQR) CD4 cell count 240 cells/mm3. In the enhanced diagnostic arm, median CAD4TBv6 score was 60 (IQR: 51-71), 4.4% (9/207) had SILVAMP-LAM-positive and 14.4% (29/201) had Determine-LAM positive urine with three samples positive by both urine tests. TB treatment was initiated in 46/208 (22%) in enhanced TB diagnostics arm and 24/207 (12%) in usual care arm (risk ratio [RR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.20-3.08). There was no difference in mortality by 56 days (enhanced TB diagnosis: 54/208, 26%; usual care: 52/207, 25%; hazard ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.72-1.53); TB treatment initiation within 24 hours (enhanced TB diagnosis: 8/207, 3.9%; usual care: 5/208, 2.4%; RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.53-4.71); or undiagnosed microbiological-confirmed TB at discharge (enhanced TB diagnosis, 0/207 (0.0%), usual care arm 2/208 (1.0%) (p = 0.50). INTERPRETATION: Urine SILVAMP-LAM/Determine-LAM plus dCXR-CAD diagnostics identified more hospitalised PHIV with TB than usual care. The increase in TB treatment appeared mainly due to greater use of Determine-LAM, rather than SILVAMP-LAM or dCXR-CAD. Poor concordance between Determine-LAM and SILVAMP-LAM urine tests requires further investigation. Inpatient mortality for adults with HIV remains unacceptability high.

Impact of Community-Wide Tuberculosis Active Case Finding and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing on Tuberculosis Trends in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis case-finding interventions are critical to meeting World Health Organization End TB strategy goals. We investigated the impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case finding (ACF) alongside scale-up of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and care on trends in adult tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: Five rounds of ACF for tuberculosis (1-2 weeks of leafleting, door-to-door enquiry for cough and sputum microscopy) were delivered to neighborhoods ("ACF areas") in North-West Blantyre between April 2011 and August 2014. Many of these neighborhoods also had concurrent HIV testing interventions. The remaining neighborhoods in Blantyre City ("non-ACF areas") provided a non-randomized comparator. We analyzed TB CNRs from January 2009 until December 2018. We used interrupted time series analysis to compare tuberculosis CNRs before ACF and after ACF, and between ACF and non-ACF areas. RESULTS: Tuberculosis CNRs increased in Blantyre concurrently with start of ACF for tuberculosis in both ACF and non-ACF areas, with a larger magnitude in ACF areas. Compared to a counterfactual where pre-ACF CNR trends continued during ACF period, we estimated there were an additional 101 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42 to 160) microbiologically confirmed (Bac+) tuberculosis diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the ACF areas in 3 and a half years of ACF. Compared to a counterfactual where trends in ACF area were the same as trends in non-ACF areas, we estimated an additional 63 (95% CI 38 to 90) Bac + diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis ACF was associated with a rapid increase in people diagnosed with tuberculosis in Blantyre.

Demand creation for HIV testing services: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing services (HTS) are the first steps in reaching the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals to achieve and maintain low HIV incidence. Evaluating the effectiveness of different demand creation interventions to increase uptake of efficient and effective HTS is useful to prioritize limited programmatic resources. This review was undertaken to inform World Health Organization (WHO) 2019 HIV testing guidelines and assessed the research question, "Which demand creation strategies are effective for enhancing uptake of HTS?" focused on populations globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The following electronic databases were searched through September 28, 2021: PubMed, PsycInfo, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL Complete, Web of Science Core Collection, EMBASE, and Global Health Database; we searched IAS and AIDS conferences. We systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared any demand creation intervention (incentives, mobilization, counseling, tailoring, and digital interventions) to either a control or other demand creation intervention and reported HTS uptake. We pooled trials to evaluate categories of demand creation interventions using random-effects models for meta-analysis and assessed study quality with Cochrane's risk of bias 1 tool. This study was funded by the WHO and registered in Prospero with ID CRD42022296947. We screened 10,583 records and 507 conference abstracts, reviewed 952 full texts, and included 124 RCTs for data extraction. The majority of studies were from the African (N = 53) and Americas (N = 54) regions. We found that mobilization (relative risk [RR]: 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.30, 3.09], p < 0.05; risk difference [RD]: 0.29, 95% CI [0.16, 0.43], p < 0.05, N = 4 RCTs), couple-oriented counseling (RR: 1.98, 95% CI [1.02, 3.86], p < 0.05; RD: 0.12, 95% CI [0.03, 0.21], p < 0.05, N = 4 RCTs), peer-led interventions (RR: 1.57, 95% CI [1.15, 2.15], p < 0.05; RD: 0.18, 95% CI [0.06, 0.31], p < 0.05, N = 10 RCTs), motivation-oriented counseling (RR: 1.53, 95% CI [1.07, 2.20], p < 0.05; RD: 0.17, 95% CI [0.00, 0.34], p < 0.05, N = 4 RCTs), short message service (SMS) (RR: 1.53, 95% CI [1.09, 2.16], p < 0.05; RD: 0.11, 95% CI [0.03, 0.19], p < 0.05, N = 5 RCTs), and conditional fixed value incentives (RR: 1.52, 95% CI [1.21, 1.91], p < 0.05; RD: 0.15, 95% CI [0.07, 0.22], p < 0.05, N = 11 RCTs) all significantly and importantly (≥50% relative increase) increased HTS uptake and had medium risk of bias. Lottery-based incentives and audio-based interventions less importantly (25% to 49% increase) but not significantly increased HTS uptake (medium risk of bias). Personal invitation letters and personalized message content significantly but not importantly (<25% increase) increased HTS uptake (medium risk of bias). Reduced duration counseling had comparable performance to standard duration counseling (low risk of bias) and video-based interventions were comparable or better than in-person counseling (medium risk of bias). Heterogeneity of effect among pooled studies was high. This study was limited in that we restricted to randomized trials, which may be systematically less readily available for key populations; additionally, we compare only pooled estimates for interventions with multiple studies rather than single study estimates, and there was evidence of publication bias for several interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Mobilization, couple- and motivation-oriented counseling, peer-led interventions, conditional fixed value incentives, and SMS are high-impact demand creation interventions and should be prioritized for programmatic consideration. Reduced duration counseling and video-based interventions are an efficient and effective alternative to address staffing shortages. Investment in demand creation activities should prioritize those with undiagnosed HIV or ongoing HIV exposure. Selection of demand creation interventions must consider risks and benefits, context-specific factors, feasibility and sustainability, country ownership, and universal health coverage across disease areas.

Inequalities in the impact of COVID-19-associated disruptions on tuberculosis diagnosis by age and sex in 45 high TB burden countries.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a major public health priority and is the second leading cause of mortality from infectious disease worldwide. TB case detection rates are unacceptably low for men, the elderly and children. Disruptions in TB services due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated these and other inequalities. METHODS: We modelled trends in age- and sex- disaggregated case notifications for all forms of new and relapse TB reported to the World Health Organization for 45 high TB, TB/HIV and MDR-TB burden countries from 2013 to 2019. We compared trend predicted notifications to observed notifications in 2020 to estimate the number of people with TB likely to have missed or delayed diagnosis. We estimated the risk ratio (RR) of missed or delayed TB diagnosis for children (aged < 15 years) or the elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) compared to adults (aged 15-64 years) and women compared to men (both aged ≥ 15 years) using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: An estimated 195,449 children (95% confidence interval, CI: 189,673-201,562, 37.8% of an expected 517,168), 1,126,133 adults (CI: 1,107,146-1,145,704, 21.8% of an expected 5,170,592) and 235,402 elderly (CI: 228,108-243,202, 28.5% of an expected 826,563) had a missed or delayed TB diagnosis in 2020. This included 511,546 women (CI: 499,623-523,869, 22.7%, of an expected 2,250,097) and 863,916 men (CI: 847,591-880,515, 23.0% of an expected 3,763,363). There was no evidence globally that the risk of having TB diagnosis missed or delayed was different for children and adults (RR: 1.09, CI: 0.41-2.91), the elderly and adults (RR: 1.40, CI: 0.62-3.16) or men and women (RR: 0.59, CI: 0.25-1.42). However, there was evidence of disparities in risk by age and/or sex in some WHO regions and in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence at an aggregate global level of any difference by age or sex in the risk of disruption to TB diagnosis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in many countries, disruptions in TB services have been greater for some groups than others. It is important to recognise these context-specific inequalities when prioritising key populations for catch-up campaigns.

Same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation for people living with HIV who have tuberculosis symptoms: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis symptoms are very common among people living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), are not specific for tuberculosis disease and may result in delayed ART start. The risks and benefits of same-day ART initiation in PLHIV with tuberculosis symptoms are unknown. METHODS: We systematically reviewed nine databases on 12 March 2020 to identify studies that investigated same-day ART initiation among PLHIV with tuberculosis symptoms and reported both their approach to TB screening and clinical outcomes. We extracted and summarized data about TB screening, numbers of people starting same-day ART and outcomes. RESULTS: We included four studies. Two studies deferred ART for everyone with any tuberculosis symptoms (one or more of cough, fever, night sweats or weight loss) and substantial numbers of people had deferred ART start (28% and 39% did not start same-day ART). Two studies permitted some people with tuberculosis symptoms to start same-day ART, and fewer people deferred ART (2% and 16% did not start same-day). Two of the four studies were conducted sequentially; proven viral load suppression at 8 months was 31% when everyone with tuberculosis symptoms had ART deferred, and 44% when the algorithm was changed so that some people with tuberculosis symptoms could start same-day ART. CONCLUSIONS: Although tuberculosis symptoms are very common in people starting ART, there is insufficient evidence about whether presence of tuberculosis symptoms should lead to ART start being deferred or not. Research to inform clear guidelines would help to maximise the benefits of same-day ART.

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications, Malawi.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.

Computer-aided X-ray screening for tuberculosis and HIV testing among adults with cough in Malawi (the PROSPECT study): A randomised trial and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal tuberculosis (TB) diagnostics and HIV contribute to the high global burden of TB. We investigated costs and yield from systematic HIV-TB screening, including computer-aided digital chest X-ray (DCXR-CAD). METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this open, three-arm randomised trial, adults (≥18 years) with cough attending acute primary services in Malawi were randomised (1:1:1) to standard of care (SOC); oral HIV testing (HIV screening) and linkage to care; or HIV testing and linkage to care plus DCXR-CAD with sputum Xpert for high CAD4TBv5 scores (HIV-TB screening). Participants and study staff were not blinded to intervention allocation, but investigator blinding was maintained until final analysis. The primary outcome was time to TB treatment. Secondary outcomes included proportion with same-day TB treatment; prevalence of undiagnosed/untreated bacteriologically confirmed TB on day 56; and undiagnosed/untreated HIV. Analysis was done on an intention-to-treat basis. Cost-effectiveness analysis used a health-provider perspective. Between 15 November 2018 and 27 November 2019, 8,236 were screened for eligibility, with 473, 492, and 497 randomly allocated to SOC, HIV, and HIV-TB screening arms; 53 (11%), 52 (9%), and 47 (9%) were lost to follow-up, respectively. At 56 days, TB treatment had been started in 5 (1.1%) SOC, 8 (1.6%) HIV screening, and 15 (3.0%) HIV-TB screening participants. Median (IQR) time to TB treatment was 11 (6.5 to 38), 6 (1 to 22), and 1 (0 to 3) days (hazard ratio for HIV-TB versus SOC: 2.86, 1.04 to 7.87), with same-day treatment of 0/5 (0%) SOC, 1/8 (12.5%) HIV, and 6/15 (40.0%) HIV-TB screening arm TB patients (p = 0.03). At day 56, 2 SOC (0.5%), 4 HIV (1.0%), and 2 HIV-TB (0.5%) participants had undiagnosed microbiologically confirmed TB. HIV screening reduced the proportion with undiagnosed or untreated HIV from 10 (2.7%) in the SOC arm to 2 (0.5%) in the HIV screening arm (risk ratio [RR]: 0.18, 0.04 to 0.83), and 1 (0.2%) in the HIV-TB screening arm (RR: 0.09, 0.01 to 0.71). Incremental costs were US$3.58 and US$19.92 per participant screened for HIV and HIV-TB; the probability of cost-effectiveness at a US$1,200/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold was 83.9% and 0%. Main limitations were the lower than anticipated prevalence of TB and short participant follow-up period; cost and quality of life benefits of this screening approach may accrue over a longer time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: DCXR-CAD with universal HIV screening significantly increased the timeliness and completeness of HIV and TB diagnosis. If implemented at scale, this has potential to rapidly and efficiently improve TB and HIV diagnosis and treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03519425.

Reasons for disengagement from antiretroviral care in the era of "Treat All" in low- or middle-income countries: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Disengagement from antiretroviral therapy (ART) care is an important reason why people living with HIV do not achieve viral load suppression become unwell. METHODS: We searched two databases and conference abstracts from January 2015 to December 2022 for studies which reported reasons for disengagement from ART care. We included quantitative (mainly surveys) and qualitative (in-depth interviews or focus groups) studies conducted after "treat all" or "Option B+" policy adoption. We used an inductive approach to categorize reasons: we report how often reasons were reported in studies and developed a conceptual framework for reasons. RESULTS: We identified 21 studies which reported reasons for disengaging from ART care in the "Treat All" era, mostly in African countries: six studies in the general population of persons living with HIV, nine in pregnant or postpartum women and six in selected populations (one each in people who use drugs, isolated indigenous communities, men, women, adolescents and men who have sex with men). Reasons reported were: side effects or other antiretroviral tablet issues (15 studies); lack of perceived benefit of ART (13 studies); psychological, mental health or drug use (13 studies); concerns about stigma or confidentiality (14 studies); lack of social or family support (12 studies); socio-economic reasons (16 studies); health facility-related reasons (11 studies); and acute proximal events such as unexpected mobility (12 studies). The most common reasons for disengagement were unexpected events, socio-economic reasons, ART side effects or lack of perceived benefit of ART. Conceptually, studies described underlying vulnerability factors (individual, interpersonal, structural and healthcare) but that often unexpected proximal events (e.g. unanticipated mobility) acted as the trigger for disengagement to occur. DISCUSSION: People disengage from ART care for individual, interpersonal, structural and healthcare reasons, and these reasons overlap and interact with each other. While HIV programmes cannot predict and address all events that may lead to disengagement, an approach that recognizes that such shocks will happen could help. CONCLUSIONS: Health services should focus on ways to encourage clients to engage with care by making ART services welcoming, person-centred and more flexible alongside offering adherence interventions, such as counselling and peer support.

Treatment preferences among people at risk of developing tuberculosis: A discrete choice experiment.

Diagnosing and treating people with bacteriologically-negative but radiologically-apparent tuberculosis (TB) may contribute to more effective TB care and reduce transmission. However, optimal treatment approaches for this group are unknown. It is important to understand peoples' preferences of treatment options for effective programmatic implementation of people-centred treatment approaches. We designed and implemented a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to solicit treatment preferences among adults (≥18 years) with TB symptoms attending a primary health clinic in Blantyre, Malawi. Treatment attributes included in the DCE were as follows: duration of treatment; number of tablets per dose; reduction in the risk of being unwell with TB disease; likelihood of infecting others; adverse effects from the treatment; frequency of follow up; and the annual travel cost to access care. Quantitative choice modelling with multinomial logit models estimated through frequentist and Bayesian approaches investigated preferences for the management of bacteriologically-negative, but radiographically-apparent TB. 128 participants were recruited (57% male, 43.8% HIV-positive, 8.6% previously treated for TB). Participants preferred to take any treatment compared to not taking treatment (odds ratio [OR] 5.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.40, 13.90). Treatments that reduced the relative risk of developing TB disease by 80% were preferred (OR: 2.97; 95% CI: 2.09, 4.21) compared to treatments that lead to a lower reduction in risk of 50%. However, there was no evidence for treatments that are 95% effective being preferred over those that are 80% effective. Participants strongly favoured the treatments that could completely stop transmission (OR: 7.87, 95% CI: 5.71, 10.84), and prioritised avoiding side effects (OR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.29). There was no evidence of an interaction between perceived TB disease risk and treatment preferences. In summary, participants were primarily concerned with the effectiveness of TB treatments and strongly preferred treatments that removed the risk of onward transmission. Person-centred approaches of preferences for treatment should be considered when designing new treatment strategies. Understanding treatment preferences will ensure that any recommended treatment for probable early TB disease is well accepted and utilized by the public.

Interventions to reduce deaths in people living with HIV admitted to hospital in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy with terms for HIV, hospitals, and clinical trials, we searched for reports published between 1 Jan 2003 and 23 August 2021. Studies of interventions among adult HIV positive inpatients in LMICs were included if there was a comparator group and death was an outcome. We excluded studies restricted only to inpatients with a specific diagnosis (e.g. cryptococcal meningitis). Of 19,970 unique studies identified in search, ten were eligible for inclusion with 7,531 participants in total: nine randomised trials, and one before-after study. Three trials investigated systematic screening for tuberculosis; two showed survival benefit for urine TB screening vs. no urine screening, and one which compared Xpert MTB/RIF versus smear microscopy showed no difference in survival. One before-after study implemented 2007 WHO guidelines to improve management of smear negative tuberculosis in severely ill PLHIV, and showed survival benefit but with high risk of bias. Two trials evaluated complex interventions aimed at overcoming barriers to ART initiation in newly diagnosed PLHIV, one of which showed survival benefit and the other no difference. Two small trials evaluated early inpatient ART start, with no difference in survival. Two trials investigated protocol-driven fluid resuscitation for emergency-room attendees meeting case-definitions for sepsis, and showed increased mortality with use of a protocol for fluid administration. In conclusion, ten studies published since 2003 investigated interventions that aimed to reduce mortality in hospitalised adults with HIV, and weren't restricted to people with a defined disease diagnosis. Inpatient trials of diagnostics, therapeutics or a package of interventions to reduce mortality should be a research priority. Trial registration: PROSPERO Number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019150341.

Accuracy of upper respiratory tract samples to diagnose Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be challenging to diagnose when sputum samples cannot be obtained, which is especially problematic in children and older people. We systematically appraised the performance characteristics and diagnostic accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling for diagnosing active pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Cinahl, Web of Science, Global Health, and Global Health Archive databases for studies published between database inception and Dec 6, 2022 that reported on the accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling for tuberculosis diagnosis compared with microbiological testing of sputum or gastric aspirate reference standard. We included studies that evaluated the accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling (laryngeal swabs, nasopharyngeal aspirate, oral swabs, saliva, mouth wash, nasal swabs, plaque samples, and nasopharyngeal swabs) to be tested for microbiological diagnosis of tuberculous (by culture and nucleic acid amplification tests) compared with a reference standard using either sputum or gastric lavage for a microbiological test. We included cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, and randomised controlled studies that recruited participants from any community or clinical setting. We excluded post-mortem studies. We used a random-effects meta-analysis with a bivariate hierarchical model to estimate pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostics odds ratio (DOR; odds of a positive test with disease relative to without), stratified by sampling method. We assessed bias using QUADAS-2 criteria. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021262392). FINDINGS: We screened 10 159 titles for inclusion, reviewed 274 full texts, and included 71, comprising 119 test comparisons published between May 13, 1933, and Dec 19, 2022, in the systematic review (53 in the meta-analysis). For laryngeal swabs, pooled sensitivity was 57·8% (95% CI 50·5-65·0), specificity was 93·8% (88·4-96·8), and DOR was 20·7 (11·1-38·8). Nasopharyngeal aspirate sensitivity was 65·2% (52·0-76·4), specificity was 97·9% (96·0-99·0), and DOR was 91·0 (37·8-218·8). Oral swabs sensitivity was 56·7% (44·3-68·2), specificity was 91·3% (CI 81·0-96·3), and DOR was 13·8 (5·6-34·0). Substantial heterogeneity in diagnostic accuracy was found, probably due to differences in reference and index standards. INTERPRETATION: Upper respiratory tract sampling holds promise to expand access to tuberculosis diagnosis. Exploring historical methods using modern microbiological techniques might further increase options for alternative sample types. Prospective studies are needed to optimise accuracy and utility of sampling methods in clinical practice. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome, and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Ending AIDS deaths requires improvements in clinical care for people with advanced HIV disease who are seriously ill.

Over 4 million adults are living with advanced HIV disease with approximately 650 000 fatalities from HIV reported in 2021. People with advanced HIV disease have low immunity and can present to health services in two ways: those who are well but at high risk of developing severe disease, and those who are severely ill. These two groups require specific management approaches that place different demands on the health system. The first group can generally be supported in primary care settings but require differentiated care to meet their needs. The second group are at high risk of death and need focused diagnostics and clinical care, and possibly hospitalisation. Investments in high-quality clinical management of patients with advanced HIV disease who are seriously ill at primary care or hospital level (often only for a brief period of time during their acute illness) improves the likelihood that their condition will stabilise and that they will recover. Providing high-quality and safe clinical care that is accessible to these groups of people living with HIV who are at risk of severe illness and death is a key priority for reaching the global target of zero AIDS deaths.

Prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in urban Blantyre, Malawi 2019-20: Substantial decline compared to 2013-14 national survey.

Recent evidence shows rapidly changing tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in Southern and Eastern Africa, with need for subdistrict prevalence estimates to guide targeted interventions. We conducted a pulmonary TB prevalence survey to estimate current TB burden in Blantyre city, Malawi. From May 2019 to March 2020, 115 households in middle/high-density residential Blantyre, were randomly-selected from each of 72 clusters. Consenting eligible participants (household residents ≥ 18 years) were interviewed, including for cough (any duration), and offered HIV testing and chest X-ray; participants with cough and/or abnormal X-ray provided two sputum samples for microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and mycobacterial culture. TB disease prevalence and risk factors for prevalent TB were calculated using complete-case analysis, multiple imputation, and inverse probability weighting. Of 20,899 eligible adults, 15,897 (76%) were interviewed, 13,490/15,897 (85%) had X-ray, and 1,120/1,394 (80%) sputum-eligible participants produced at least one specimen, giving 15,318 complete cases (5,895, 38% men). 29/15,318 had bacteriologically-confirmed TB (189 per 100,000 complete-case (cc) / 150 per 100,000 with inverse weighting (iw)). Men had higher burden (cc: 305 [95% CI:144-645] per 100,000) than women (cc: 117 [95% CI:65-211] per 100,000): cc adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.70 (1.26-5.78). Other significant risk factors for prevalent TB on complete-case analysis were working age (25-49 years) and previous TB treatment, but not HIV status. Multivariable analysis of imputed data was limited by small numbers, but previous TB and age group 25-49 years remained significantly associated with higher TB prevalence. Pulmonary TB prevalence for Blantyre was considerably lower than the 1,014 per 100,000 for urban Malawi in the 2013-14 national survey, at 150-189 per 100,000 adults, but some groups, notably men, remain disproportionately affected. TB case-finding is still needed for TB elimination in Blantyre, and similar urban centres, but should focus on reaching the highest risk groups, such as older men.

Design and protocol for a cluster randomised trial of enhanced diagnostics for tuberculosis screening among people living with HIV in hospital in Malawi (CASTLE study).

BACKGROUND: People living with HIV (PLHIV) have a high risk of death if hospitalised in low-income countries. Tuberculosis has long been the leading cause of admission and death, in part due to suboptimal diagnostics. Two promising new diagnostic tools are digital chest Xray with computer-aided diagnosis (DCXR-CAD) and urine testing with Fujifilm SILVAMP LAM (FujiLAM). Neither test has been rigorously evaluated among inpatients. Test characteristics may be complementary, with FujiLAM especially sensitive for disseminated tuberculosis and DCXR-CAD especially sensitive for pulmonary tuberculosis, making combined interventions of interest. DESIGN AND METHODS: An exploratory unblinded, single site, two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, with day of admission as the unit of randomisation. A third, smaller, integrated cohort arm (4:4:1 random allocation) contributes to understanding case-mix, but not trial outcomes. Participants are adults living with HIV not currently on TB treatment. The intervention (DCXR-CAD plus urine FujiLAM plus usual care) is compared to usual care alone. The primary outcome is proportion of participants started on tuberculosis treatment by day 56, with secondary outcomes of mortality (time to event) measured to to 56 days from enrolment, proportions with undiagnosed tuberculosis at death or hospital discharge and comparing proportions with enrolment-day tuberculosis treatment initiation. DISCUSSION: Both DCXR-CAD and FujiLAM have potential clinical utility and may have complementary diagnostic performance. To our knowledge, this is the first randomised trial to evaluate these tests among hospitalised PLHIV.

Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi.

Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015-19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015-19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98-11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective targeting of intensified TB and HIV case-finding interventions aiming to accelerate elimination of urban TB.

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi. DESIGN: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data. METHODS: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission. CONCLUSION: Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH.

What is the optimum time to start antiretroviral therapy in people with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV and tuberculosis are frequently diagnosed concurrently. In March 2021, World Health Organization recommended that antiretroviral therapy (ART) should be started within two weeks of tuberculosis treatment start, at any CD4 count. We assessed whether earlier ART improved outcomes in people with newly diagnosed HIV and tuberculosis. METHODS: We did a systematic review by searching nine databases for trials that compared earlier ART to later ART initiation in people with HIV and tuberculosis. We included studies published from database inception to 12 March 2021. We compared ART within four weeks versus ART more than four weeks after TB treatment, and ART within two weeks versus ART between two and eight weeks, and stratified analysis by CD4 count. The main outcome was death; secondary outcomes included IRIS and AIDS-defining events. We pooled effect estimates using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We screened 2468 abstracts, and identified nine trials. Among people with all CD4 counts, there was no difference in mortality by earlier ART (≤4 week) versus later ART (>4 week) (risk difference [RD] 0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2% to +1%). Among people with CD4 count ≤50 cells/mm3 , earlier ART (≤4 weeks) reduced risk of death (RD -6%, -10% to -1%). Among people with all CD4 counts earlier ART (≤4 weeks) increased the risk of IRIS (RD +6%, 95% CI +2% to +10%) and reduced the incidence of AIDS-defining events (RD -2%, 95% CI -4% to 0%). Results were similar when trials were restricted to the four trials which permitted comparison of ART within two weeks to ART between two and eight weeks. Trials were conducted between 2004 and 2014, before recommendations to treat HIV at any CD4 count or to rapidly start ART in people without TB. No trials included children or pregnant women. No trials included integrase inhibitors in ART regimens. DISCUSSION: Earlier ART did not alter risk of death overall among people living with HIV who had TB disease. For logistical and patient preference reasons, earlier ART initiation for everyone with TB and HIV may be preferred to later ART.

Tuberculosis case notifications in Malawi have strong seasonal and weather-related trends.

Seasonal trends in tuberculosis (TB) notifications have been observed in several countries but are poorly understood. Explanatory factors may include weather, indoor crowding, seasonal respiratory infections and migration. Using enhanced citywide TB surveillance data collected over nine years in Blantyre, Malawi, we set out to investigate how weather and seasonality affect temporal trends in TB case notification rates (CNRs) across different demographic groups. We used data from prospective enhanced surveillance between April 2011 and December 2018, which systematically collected age, HIV status, sex and case notification dates for all registering TB cases in Blantyre. We retrieved temperature and rainfall data from the Global Surface Summary of the Day weather station database. We calculated weekly trends in TB CNRs, rainfall and temperature, and calculated 10-week moving averages. To investigate the associations between rainfall, temperature and TB CNRs, we fitted generalized linear models using a distributed lag nonlinear framework. The estimated Blantyre population increased from 1,068,151 in April 2011 to 1,264,304 in December 2018, with 15,908 TB cases recorded. Overall annual TB CNRs declined from 222 to 145 per 100,000 between 2012 and 2018, with the largest declines seen in HIV-positive people and adults aged over 20 years old. TB CNRs peaks occurred with increasing temperature in September and October before the onset of increased rainfall, and later in the rainy season during January-March, after sustained rainfall. When lag between a change in weather and TB case notifications was accounted for, higher average rainfall was associated with an equivalent six weeks of relatively lower TB notification rates, whereas there were no changes in TB CNR associated with change in average temperatures. TB CNRs in Blantyre have a seasonal pattern of two cyclical peaks per year, coinciding with the start and end of the rainy season. These trends may be explained by increased transmission at certain times of the year, by limited healthcare access, by patterns of seasonal respiratory infections precipitating cough and care-seeking, or by migratory patterns related to planting and harvesting during the rainy season.