Solving the Dynamic Correlation Problem of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model on Networks.

The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations coming from that if one node is infected, then its neighbors are likely to be infected. By combining two theoretical approaches-the heterogeneous mean-field theory and the effective degree method-we are able to include these correlations in an analytical solution of the SIS model. We derive accurate expressions for the average prevalence (fraction of infected) and epidemic threshold. We also discuss how to generalize the approach to a larger class of stochastic population models.

Effect of vaccination strategies on the dynamic behavior of epidemic spreading and vaccine coverage.

The transmission of infectious, yet vaccine-preventable, diseases is a typical complex social phenomenon, where the increasing level of vaccine update in the population helps to inhibit the epidemic spreading, which in turn, however, discourages more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, due to the "externality effect" raised by vaccination. We herein study the impact of vaccination strategies, pure, continuous (rather than adopt vaccination definitely, the individuals choose to taking vaccine with some probabilities), or continuous with randomly mutation, on the vaccination dynamics with a spatial susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemiological model. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that there is a crossover behavior of the final vaccine coverage between the pure-strategy case and the continuous-strategy case, and remarkably, both the final vaccination level and epidemic size in the continuous-strategy case are less than them in the pure-strategy case when vaccination is cheap. We explain this phenomenon by analyzing the organization process of the individuals in the continuous-strategy case in the equilibrium. Our results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on other spatial networks, like the Erdos-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks.

Multistage onset of epidemics in heterogeneous networks.

We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in scale-free networks. This phenomenon is characterized by multiple peaks in the susceptibility as a function of the infection rate. It can be explained by that, even under the global epidemic threshold, a hub can sustain the epidemics for an extended period. Moreover, our approach improves theoretical calculations of prevalence close to the threshold in heterogeneous networks and also can predict the average risk of infection for neighbors of nodes with different degree and state on uncorrelated static networks.

Analytical solution of epidemic threshold for coupled information-epidemic dynamics on multiplex networks with alterable heterogeneity.

The phase transition of epidemic spreading model on networks is one of the most important concerns of physicists to theoretical epidemiology. In this paper, we present an analytical expression of epidemic threshold for interplay between epidemic spreading and human behavior on multiplex networks. The threshold formula proposed in this paper reveals the relation between the threshold on single-layer networks and that on multiplex networks, which means that the theoretical conclusions of single-layer networks can be used to improve the threshold accuracy of multiplex networks. To verify how well our formula works in different networks, we build a network model with constant total number of edges but gradually changing the heterogeneity of the network, from scale-free network to Erdos-Rényi random network. By use of theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find that the heterogeneity of information layer behaves as a "double-edged sword" on the epidemic threshold: The strong heterogeneity can effectively improve the epidemic threshold (which means the disease outbreak requires a higher infection probability) when the awareness probability α is low, while the opposite effect takes place for high α. Meanwhile, the weak heterogeneity of the information layer is effective in suppressing the epidemic prevalence when the awareness probability is neither too high nor too low.

Analytical treatment for cyclic three-state dynamics on static networks.

Whenever a dynamical process unfolds on static networks, the dynamical state of any focal individual will be exclusively influenced by directly connected neighbors, rather than by those unconnected ones, hence the arising of the dynamical correlation problem, where mean-field-based methods fail to capture the scenario. The dynamic correlation coupling problem has always been an important and difficult problem in the theoretical field of physics. The explicit analytical expressions and the decoupling methods often play a key role in the development of corresponding field. In this paper, we study the cyclic three-state dynamics on static networks, which include a wide class of dynamical processes, for example, the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, the directed migration model, the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model, and the predator-prey with empty sites model. We derive the explicit analytical solutions of the propagating size and the threshold curve surface for the four different dynamics. We compare the results on static networks with those on annealed networks and made an interesting discovery: for the symmetrical dynamical model (the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model and the directed migration model, where the three states are of rotational symmetry), the macroscopic behaviors of the dynamical processes on static networks are the same as those on annealed networks; while the outcomes of the dynamical processes on static networks are different with, and more complicated than, those on annealed networks for asymmetric dynamical model (the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model and the predator-prey with empty sites model). We also compare the results forecasted by our theoretical method with those by Monte Carlo simulations and find good agreement between the results obtained by the two methods.

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

Behavior of susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered epidemics with diversity in the infection rate of individuals.

We study a susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity in infection rate can either impede or accelerate the epidemic spreading, which depends on the amount of vaccinated individuals introduced in the population as well as the contact pattern among the individuals. Remarkably, as long as the individuals with different capability of acquiring the disease interact with unequal frequency, there always exist a cross point for the fraction of vaccinated, below which the diversity of infection rate hinders the epidemic spreading and above which expedites it. The overall results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on different population models; the possible applications of the results are discussed.