RESUMO
Background: A sex-based evaluation of prognosis in heart failure (HF) is lacking. Methods and results: We analyzed the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score registry, which includes HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients. A cross-validation procedure was performed to estimate weights separately for men and women of all MECKI score parameters: left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), hemoglobin, kidney function assessed by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, blood sodium level, ventilation vs. carbon dioxide production slope, and peak oxygen consumption (peakVO2). The primary outcomes were the composite of all-cause mortality, urgent heart transplant, and implant of a left ventricle assist device. The difference in predictive ability between the native and sex recalibrated MECKI (S-MECKI) was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve at 2 years and a calibration plot. We retrospectively analyzed 7,900 HFrEF patients included in the MECKI score registry (mean age 61 ± 13â years, 6,456 men/1,444 women, mean LVEF 33% ± 10%, mean peakVO2 56.2% ± 17.6% of predicted) with a median follow-up of 4.05â years (range 1.72-7.47). Our results revealed an unadjusted risk of events that was doubled in men compared to women (9.7 vs. 4.1) and a significant difference in weight between the sexes of most of the parameters included in the MECKI score. S-MECKI showed improved risk classification and accuracy (area under the ROC curve: 0.7893 vs. 0.7799, p = 0.02) due to prognostication improvement in the high-risk settings in both sexes (MECKI score >10 in men and >5 in women). Conclusions: S-MECKI, i.e., the recalibrated MECKI according to sex-specific differences, constitutes a further step in the prognostic assessment of patients with severe HFrEF.
RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) is essential for clinical and therapeutic management. The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score is a validated prognostic model for assessing cardiovascular risk in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). From the validation of the score, the prevalence of HF patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), such as edoxaban, for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) has been increasing in recent years. This study aims to evaluate the reliability of the MECKI score in HFrEF patients treated with edoxaban for NVAF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included consecutive outpatients with HF and NVAF treated with edoxaban (n = 83) who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET). They were matched by propensity score with a retrospective group of HFrEF patients with NVAF treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) from the MECKI score registry (n = 844). The study endpoint was the risk of cardiovascular mortality, urgent heart transplantation, or Left Ventricle Assist Device (LVAD) implantation. RESULTS: Edoxaban patients were treated with a more optimized HF therapy and had different clinical characteristics, with a similar MECKI score. After propensity score, 77 patients treated with edoxaban were successfully matched with the MECKI-VKA control cohort. In both groups, MECKI accurately predicted the composite endpoint with similar area under the curves (AUC = 0.757 vs. 0.829 in the MECKI-VKA vs. edoxaban-treated group, respectively, p = 0.452). The two populations' survival appeared non-significantly different at the 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: this study confirms the prognostic accuracy of the MECKI score in HFrEF patients with NVAF treated with edoxaban, showing improved predictive power compared to VKA-treated patients.