Chemical composition alterations in rat brain hypothalamus induced by irisin administration using spectroscopic and machine learning techniques.

This study employed Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to determine the chemical composition of brain tissues and the changes induced by irisin at doses of 50 mg and 100 mg. Brain tissues were collected from control rats and those administered with irisin, and key vibrational peaks were analyzed. In the 50 mg irisin group, all described vibrations decreased compared to control tissues, while the 100 mg group showed a decrease only in lipid vibrations. Comparatively, the 50 mg group had lower absorbance of phospholipids, amides, and lipid functional groups than the 100 mg group. Lower amounts of these compounds were found in treated tissues compared to controls, with higher levels in the 100 mg group. Ratios between amide peaks revealed significant differences between groups. Principal component analysis (PCA) differentiated control and irisin-treated tissues, primarily using PC1 and PC3. The decision tree model exhibited high classification accuracy, especially in the 800-1800 cm⁻1 range, with high sensitivity and specificity. FTIR spectroscopy effectively highlighted chemical changes in brain tissues due to irisin, demonstrating dose-dependent variations. The combination of PCA, ROC analysis, and decision tree modeling underscored the potential of FTIR spectroscopy for studying the biochemical effects of compounds like irisin.

Detection of primary myelofibrosis in blood serum via Raman spectroscopy assisted by machine learning approaches; correlation with clinical diagnosis.

Primary myelofibrosis (PM) is one of the myeloproliferative neoplasm, where stem cell-derived clonal neoplasms was noticed. Diagnosis of this disease is based on: physical examination, peripheral blood findings, bone marrow morphology, cytogenetics, and molecular markers. However, the molecular marker of PM, which is a mutation in the JAK2V617F gene, was observed also in other myeloproliferative neoplasms such as polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia. Therefore, there is a need to find methods that provide a marker unique to PM and allow for higher accuracy of PM diagnosis and consequently the treatment of the disease. Continuing, in this study, we used Raman spectroscopy, Principal Components Analysis (PCA), and Partial Least Squares (PLS) analysis as helpful diagnostic tools for PM. Consequently, we used serum collected from PM patients, which were classified using clinical parameters of PM such as the dynamic international prognostic scoring system (DIPSS) for primary myelofibrosis plus score, the JAK2V617F mutation, spleen size, bone marrow reticulin fibrosis degree and use of hydroxyurea drug features. Raman spectra showed higher amounts of C-H, C-C and C-C/C-N and amide II and lower amounts of amide I and vibrations of CH3 groups in PM patients than in healthy ones. Furthermore, shifts of amides II and I vibrations in PM patients were noticed. Machine learning methods were used to analyze Raman regions: (i) 800 cm-1 and 1800 cm-1, (ii) 1600 cm-1-1700 cm-1, and (iii) 2700 cm-1-3000 cm-1 showed 100 % accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Differences in the spectral dynamic showed that differences in the amide II and amide I regions were the most significant in distinguishing between PM and healthy subjects. Importantly, until now, the efficacy of Raman spectroscopy has not been established in clinical diagnostics of PM disease using the correlation between Raman spectra and PM clinical prognostic scoring. Continuing, our results showed the correlation between Raman signals and bone marrow fibrosis, as well as JAKV617F. Consequently, the results revealed that Raman spectroscopy has a high potential for use in medical laboratory diagnostics to quantify multiple biomarkers simultaneously, especially in the selected Raman regions.

Short-term prediction of COVID-19 spread using grey rolling model optimized by particle swarm optimization.

The prediction of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is vital in taking preventive and control measures to reduce human health damage. The Grey Modelling (1,1) is a popular approach used to construct a predictive model with a small-sized dataset.​ In this study, a hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) was applied to create short-term estimates of the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases for three countries, Germany, Turkey, and the USA. A rolling mechanism that updates data in equal dimensions was applied to improve the forecasting accuracy of the models. The PSO algorithm was used to optimize the Grey Modelling parameters (1,1) to provide more robust and efficient solutions with minimum errors. To compare the accuracy of the predictive models, a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) was also developed. According to the analysis results, Grey Rolling Modelling (1,1) optimized by PSO algorithm performs better than the classical Grey Modelling (1,1), Grey Rolling Modelling (1,1), and NARNN models for predicting the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The present study can provide an important basis for countries to allocate health resources and formulate epidemic prevention policies effectively.

Estimation of municipal waste generation of Turkey using socio-economic indicators by Bayesian optimization tuned Gaussian process regression.

Accurate estimation of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has become a crucial task in decision-making processes for the MSW planning and management systems. In this study, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model tuned by Bayesian optimization was used to forecast the MSW generation of Turkey. The Bayesian optimization method, which can efficiently optimize the hyperparameters of kernel functions in the machine learning algorithms, was applied to reduce the computation redundancy and enhance the estimation performance of the models. Four socio-economic indicators such as population, gross domestic product per capita, inflation rate, and the unemployment rate were used as input variables. The performance of the Bayesian GPR (BGPR) model was compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR) and Bayesian support vector regression (BSVR) models. Different performance measures such as mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) values were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The exponential-GPR model tuned by Bayesian optimization showed superior performance with minimum MAD (0.0182), RMSE (0.0203), and high R2 (0.9914) values in the training phase and minimum MAD (0.0342), RMSE (0.0463), and high R2 (0.9841) values in the testing phase. The results of this study can help decision-makers to be aware of social-economic factors associated with waste management and ensure optimal usage of their resources in future planning.

Embryotoxicity of nitrophenols to the early life stages of zebrafish (Danio rerio).

The nitrophenols (NPs) are water-soluble compounds. These compounds pose a significant health threat since they are priority environmental pollutants. In this study, 2-Nitrophenol (2NP) and 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP) were examined for embryo and early life stage toxicity in zebrafish (Danio rerio). Acute toxicity and teratogenicity of 2NP and DNP were tested for 4 days using zebrafish embryos. The typical lesions observed were no somite formation, incomplete eye and head development, tail curvature, weak pigmentation (≤48 hours postfertilization (hpf)), kyphosis, scoliosis, yolk sac deformity, and nonpigmentation (72 hpf). Also, embryo and larval mortality increased and hatching success decreased. The severity of abnormalities and mortalities were concentration- and compound-dependent. Of the compounds tested, 2,4-DNP was found to be highly toxic to the fish embryos following exposure. The median lethal concentrations and median effective concentrations for 2NP are 18.7 mg/L and 7.9 mg/L, respectively; the corresponding values for DNP are 9.65 mg/L and 3.05 mg/L for 48 h. The chorda deformity was the most sensitive endpoint measured. It is suggested that the embryotoxicity may be mediated by an oxidative phosphorylation uncoupling mechanism. This article is the first to describe the teratogenicity and embryotoxicity of two NPs to the early life stages of zebrafish.

Investigation of the structural changes in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex using FTIR spectroscopy in sleep deprived mice.

Sleep is a basic, physiological requirement for living things to survive and is a process that covers one third of our lives. Melatonin is a hormone that plays an important role in the regulation of sleep. Sleep deprivation affect brain structures and functions. Sleep deprivation causes a decrease in brain activity, with particularly negative effects on the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. Despite the essential role of protein and lipids vibrations, polysaccharides, fatty acid side chains functional groups, and ratios between amides in brain structures and functions, the brain chemical profile exposed to gentle handling sleep deprivation model versus Melatonin exposure remains unexplored. Therefore, the present study, aims to investigate a molecular profile of these regions using FTIR spectroscopy measurement's analysis based on lipidomic approach with chemometrics and multivariate analysis to evaluate changes in lipid composition in the hippocampus, prefrontal regions of the brain. In this study, C57BL/6J mice were randomly assigned to either the control or sleep deprivation group, resulting in four experimental groups: Control (C) (n = 6), Control + Melatonin (C + M) (n = 6), Sleep Deprivation (S) (n = 6), and Sleep Deprivation + Melatonin (S + M) (n = 6). Interventions were administered each morning via intraperitoneal injections of melatonin (10 mg/kg) or vehicle solution (%1 ethanol + saline), while the S and S + M groups underwent 6 h of daily sleep deprivation from using the Gentle Handling method. All mice were individually housed in cages with ad libitum access to food and water within a 12-hour light-dark cycle. Results presented that the brain regions affected by insomnia. The structure of phospholipids, changed. Yet, not only changes in lipids but also in amides were noticed in hippocampus and prefrontal cortex tissues. Additionally, FTIR results showed that melatonin affected the lipids as well as the amides fraction in cortex and hippocampus collected from both control and sleep deprivation groups.

Quantitative or qualitative biomolecular changes in blood serum composition induced by childhood obesity: A Fourier transform infrared examination.

Childhood obesity (CO) negatively affects one in three children and stands as the fourth most common risk factor of health and well-being. Clarifying the molecular and structural modifications that transpire during the development of obesity is crucial for understanding its progression and devising effective therapies. The study was indeed conducted as part of an ongoing CO treatment trial, where data were collected from children diagnosed with CO before the initiation of non-drug treatment interventions. Our primary aim was to analyze the biochemical changes associated with childhood obesity, specifically focusing on concentrations of lipids, lipoproteins, insulin, and glucose. By comparing these parameters between the CO group (n = 60) and a control group of healthy children (n = 43), we sought to elucidate the metabolic differences present in individuals with CO. Our biochemical analyses unveiled lower LDL (low-density lipoproteins) levels and higher HDL (high-density lipoproteins), cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, and glucose levels in CO individuals compared to controls. To scrutinize these changes in more detail, we employed Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy on the serum samples. Our results indicated elevated levels of lipids and proteins in the serum of CO, compared to controls. Additionally, we noted structural changes in the vibrations of glucose, ß-sheet, and lipids in CO group. The FTIR technique, coupled with principal component analysis (PCA), demonstrated a marked differentiation between CO and controls, particularly in the FTIR region corresponding to amide and lipids. The Pearson test revealed a stronger correlation between biochemical data and FTIR spectra than between 2nd derivative FTIR spectra. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the molecular and structural changes occurring in CO.

Detection of serum alterations in polysubstance use patients by FT-Raman spectroscopy.

Substance use disorders pose significant health risks and treatment challenges due to the diverse interactions between substances and their impact on physical and mental health. The chemical effects of multiple substance use on bodily fluids are not yet fully understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the chemical changes induced by a combination of substances compared to a control group. Analysis of FT-Raman spectra revealed structural alterations in the amide III, I, and C = O functional groups of lipids in subjects treated with opioids, alcohol and cannabis (polysubstance group). These changes were evident in the form of peak shifts compared to the control group. Additionally, an imbalance in the amide-lipid ratio was observed, indicating perturbations in serum protein and lipid levels. Furthermore, a 2D plot of two-track two-dimensional correlation spectra (2T2D-COS) demonstrated a shift towards dominance of lipid vibrations in the polysubstance use groups, contrasting with the predominance of the amide fraction in the control group. This observation suggests distinct molecular changes induced by multiple substance use, potentially contributing to the pathophysiology of substance use disorders. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was utilized to visualize the data structure and identify outliers. Subsequently, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) was employed to classify the polysubstance use and control groups. The PLS-DA model demonstrated high classification accuracy, achieving 100.00 % in the training dataset and 94.74 % in the test dataset. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis yielded perfect AUC values of 1.00 for both the training and test sets, underscoring the robustness of the classification model. This study highlights the quantitative and qualitative changes in serum protein and lipid levels induced by polysubstance use groups, as evidenced by FT-Raman spectroscopy. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the chemical effects of polysubstance use on bodily fluids for improved diagnosis and treatment of substance use disorders. Moreover, the successful classification of spectral data using machine learning techniques emphasizes the potential of these approaches in clinical applications for substance abuse monitoring and management.

Application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to detect biochemical changes in blood serum of obese patients.

Obesity is frequently a significant risk factor for multiple obesity-associated diseases that have been increasing in prevalence worldwide. Anthropometric data such as body mass index, fat, and fat mass values are assessed for obesity. Therefore, we aimed to propose two Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectral regions, 800-1800 cm-1 and 2700-3000 cm-1 , as sensitive potential band assignments for obesity-related biochemical changes. A total of 134 obese (n = 89) and controls (n = 45) biochemical characteristics and clinical parameters indicative of obesity were evaluated. The FT-IR spectra of dried blood serum were measured. Anthropometric data of the obese have the highest body mass index, %fat, and fat mass values compared to the healthy group (p < 0.01). Also, the triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were higher than in healthy subjects (p < 0.01). Principal component analysis (PCA) technique successfully distinguished obese and control groups in the fingerprint, accounting for 98.5% and 99.9% of the total variability (800-1800 cm-1 ) and lipids (2700-3000 cm-1 ) regions presented as 2D and 3D score plots. The loading results indicated that peaks corresponding to phosphonate groups, glucose, amide I, and lipid groups were shifted in the obese group, indicating their potential as biomarkers of obesity. This study suggests that FTIR analysis based on PCA can provide a detailed and reliable method for the analysis of blood serum in obese patients.

Chemical changes in childhood obesity blood as a marker of the disease. A Raman-based machine learning study.

Obesity in children is a global problem, leading to different medical conditions that may contribute to metabolic syndrome and increase the risk of diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and cardiovascular diseases in future health. Metabolic disorders are the results of the body's chemical process. The changes in the chemical compositions could be determined by Raman spectroscopy. Therefore, in this study, we measured blood collected from children with obesity to show chemical changes caused by obesity disease. Moreover, we will also show characteristic Raman peaks/regions, which could be used as a marker of obesity, not other metabolic syndromes. Children with obesity had higher glucose levels, proteins, and lipids than the control ones. Furthermore, it was noticed that the ratio between CO and C-H is 0.23 in control patients and 0.31 in children with obesity, as well as the ratio between amide II and amide I was 0.72 in control and 1.15 in obesity, which suggests an imbalance in these two fractions in childhood obesity. PCA with discrimination analyses showed that the accuracy, selectivity, and specificity of Raman spectroscopy in differentiation between childhood obesity and healthy children was between 93% and 100%. There is an increased risk of metabolic changes in childhood obesity with higher glucose levels, lipids, and proteins in children with obesity. Also, there were differences in the ratio between proteins and lipids functional groups and glucose, amide II, and amide I vibrations as a marker of obesity. The results of the study offer valuable insights into potential alterations in protein structure and lipid composition in children with obesity, emphasizing the importance of considering metabolic changes beyond traditional anthropometric, measurements.

Comparative and Predictive Analysis of Clinical and Metabolic Features of Anorexia Nervosa and Bulimia Nervosa.

Background: Eating disorders have become increasingly prevalent over the years; the age at which they appear has decreased, and they can lead to serious illness or death. Therefore, the number of studies on the matter has increased. Eating disorders like anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are affected by many factors including mental illnesses that can have serious physical and psychological consequences. Accordingly, the present study aimed to compare the clinical and metabolic features of patients with AN and BN and identify potential biomarkers for distinguishing between the two disorders. Methods: Clinical data of 41 participants who sought treatment for eating disorders between 2012 and 2022, including 29 AN patients and 12 BN patients, were obtained from NPIstanbul Brain Hospital in Istanbul, Turkey. The study included the clinical variables of both outpatient and inpatient treatments. Principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized to gain insights into differentiating AN and BN patients based on clinical characteristics, while machine learning techniques were applied to identify eating disorders. Findings: The study found that thyroid hormone levels in patients with AN and BN were influenced by non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS), which could be attributed to various factors, including psychiatric disorders, substance abuse, and medication use. Lipid profile comparisons revealed higher triglyceride levels in the BN group (P<0.05), indicating increased triglyceride synthesis and storage as an energy source. Liver function tests showed lower levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in BN patients (P<0.05), while higher prolactin levels (P<0.05) suggested an altered hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. Imbalances in minerals such as calcium and magnesium (P<0.05) were observed in individuals with eating disorders. PCA effectively differentiated AN and BN patients based on clinical features, and the Naïve Bayes (NB) model showed promising results in identifying eating disorders. Conclusion: The findings of the study provide important insights into AN and BN patients' clinical features and may help guide future research and treatment strategies for these conditions.

Application of Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy of machine learning with Support Vector Machine and principal components analysis to detect biochemical changes in dried serum of patients with primary myelofibrosis.

Primary myelofibrosis (PM) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by stem cell-derived clonal neoplasms. Several factors are involved in diagnosing PM, including physical examination, peripheral blood findings, bone marrow morphology, cytogenetics, and molecular markers. Commonly gene mutations are used. Also, these gene mutations exist in other diseases, such as polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia. Hence, understanding the molecular mechanism and finding disease-related biomarker characteristics only for PM is crucial for the treatment and survival rate. For this purpose, blood samples of PM (n = 85) vs. healthy controls (n = 45) were collected for biochemical analysis, and, for the first time, Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy measurement of dried PM and healthy patients' blood serum was analyzed. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) model with optimized hyperparameters was constructed using the grid search (GS) method. Then, the FTIR spectra of the biomolecular components of blood serum from PM patients were compared to those from healthy individuals using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Also, an analysis of the rate of change of FTIR spectra absorption was studied. The results showed that PM patients have higher amounts of phospholipids and proteins and a lower amount of H-O=H vibrations which was visible. The PCA results indicated that it is possible to differentiate between dried blood serum samples collected from PM patients and healthy individuals. The Grid Search Support Vector Machine (GS-SVM) model showed that the prediction accuracy ranged from 0.923 to 1.00 depending on the FTIR range analyzed. Furthermore, it was shown that the ratio between α-helix and ß-sheet structures in proteins is 1.5 times higher in PM than in control people. The vibrations associated with the CO bond and the amide III region of proteins showed the highest probability value, indicating that these spectral features were significantly altered in PM patients compared to healthy ones' spectra. The results indicate that the FTIR spectroscope may be used as a technique helpful in PM diagnostics. The study also presents preliminary results from the first prospective clinical validation study.

Raman spectroscopy-based biomarker screening by studying the fingerprint and lipid characteristics of Polycythem..a Vera cases blood serum.

This study aimed to develop a novel approach for diagnosing Polycythemia Vera (PV), a stem cell-derived neoplasm of the myeloid lineage. The approach utilized Raman spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis to analyze blood serum samples collected from PV patients. The results showed that PV serum exhibited lower protein and lipid levels and structural changes in the functional groups that comprise proteins and lipids. The study also demonstrated differences in lipid biosynthesis and protein levels in PV serum. Using the Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) model, Raman-based multivariate analysis achieved high accuracy rates of 96.49 and 93.04% in the training sets and 93.10% and 89.66% in the test sets for the 800-1800 cm-1 and 2700-3000 cm-1 ranges, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the test datasets were calculated as 0.92 and 0.89 in the 800-1800 cm-1 and 2700-3000 cm-1 spectral regions, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of the PLS-DA models for the diagnosis of PV. This study highlights the potential of Raman spectroscopy-based analysis in the early and accurate diagnosis of PV, enabling the application of effective treatment strategies.

FTIR- based serum structure analysis in molecular diagnostics of essential thrombocythemia disease.

Essential thrombocythemia (ET) reflects the transformation of a multipotent hematopoietic stem cell, but its molecular pathogenesis remains obscure. Nevertheless, tyrosine kinase, especially Janus kinase 2 (JAK2), has been implicated in myeloproliferative disorders other than chronic myeloid leukaemia. FTIR analysis was performed on the blood serum of 86 patients and 45 healthy volunteers as control with FTIR spectra-based machine learning methods and chemometrics. Thus, the study aimed to determine biomolecular changes and separation of ET and healthy control groups illustration by applying chemometrics and ML techniques to spectral data. The FTIR-based results showed that in ET disease with JAK2 mutation, there are alterations in functional groups associated with lipids, proteins and nucleic acids significantly. Moreover, in ET patients the lower amount of proteins with simultaneously higher amount of lipids was noted in comparison with the control one. Furthermore, the SVM-DA model showed 100% accuracy in calibration sets in both spectral regions and 100.0% and 96.43% accuracy in prediction sets for the 800-1800 cm-1 and 2700-3000 cm-1 spectral regions, respectively. While changes in the dynamic spectra showed that CH2 bending, amide II and CO vibrations could be used as a spectroscopy marker of ET. Finally, it was found a positive correlation between FTIR peaks and first bone marrow fibrosis degree, as well as the absence of JAK2 V617F mutation. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of ET and identifying biomolecular changes and may have implications for early diagnosis and treatment of this disease.

The impact of COVID-19 on the electricity demand: a case study for Turkey.

Due to the extraordinary impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the resulting lockdown measures, the demand for energy in business and industry has dropped significantly. This change in demand makes it difficult to manage energy generation, especially electricity production and delivery. Thus, reliable models are needed to continue safe, secure, and reliable power. An accurate forecast of electricity demand is essential for making a reliable decision in strategic planning and investments in the future. This study presents the extensive effects of COVID-19 on the electricity sector and aims to predict electricity demand accurately during the lockdown period in Turkey. For this purpose, well-known machine learning algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR), sequential minimal optimization regression (SMOReg), correlated Nyström views (XNV), linear regression (LR), reduced error pruning tree (REPTree), and M5P model tree (M5P) were used. The SMOReg algorithm performed best with the lowest mean absolute percentage error (3.6851%), mean absolute error (21.9590), root mean square error (29.7358), and root relative squared error (36.5556%) values in the test dataset. This study can help policy-makers develop appropriate policies to control the harms of not only the current pandemic crisis but also an unforeseeable crisis.

Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France.

At the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan city, China. As of April 15, 2020, >1.9 million COVID-19 cases were confirmed worldwide, including >120,000 deaths. There is an urgent need to monitor and predict COVID-19 prevalence to control this spread more effectively. Time series models are significant in predicting the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and taking the necessary measures to respond to this crisis. In this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 prevalence of Italy, Spain, and France, the most affected countries of Europe. The prevalence data of COVID-19 from 21 February 2020 to 15 April 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization website. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (0,2,1), ARIMA (1,2,0), and ARIMA (0,2,1) models with the lowest MAPE values (4.7520, 5.8486, and 5.6335) were selected as the best models for Italy, Spain, and France, respectively. This study shows that ARIMA models are suitable for predicting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the future. The results of the analysis can shed light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and give an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. Besides, the prediction of COVID-19 prevalence trends of Italy, Spain, and France can help take precautions and policy formulation for this epidemic in other countries.

Prediction of medical waste generation using SVR, GM (1,1) and ARIMA models: a case study for megacity Istanbul.

PURPOSE: Estimation of the amount of waste to be generated in the coming years is critical for the evaluation of existing waste treatment service capacities. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of various mathematical modeling methods to forecast medical waste generation of Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey. METHODS: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Grey Modeling (1,1) and Linear Regression (LR) analysis were used to estimate annual medical waste generation from 2018 to 2023. A 23-year data from 1995 to 2017 provided from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality's affiliated environmental company ISTAC Company were utilized to examine the forecasting accuracy of methods. Different performance measures such as mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of these models. RESULTS: ARIMA (0,1,2) model with the lowest RMSE (763.6852), MAD (588.4712), and MAPE (11.7595) values and the highest R2 (0.9888) value showed a superior prediction performance compared to SVR, Grey Modeling (1,1), and LR analysis. The results obtained from the models indicated that the total amount of annual medical waste to be generated will increase from about 26,400 tons in 2017 to 35,600 tons in 2023. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA (0,1,2) model developed in this study can help decision-makers to take better measures and develop policies regarding waste management practices in the future.

Thermal behaviour and kinetics of alga Polysiphonia elongata biomass during pyrolysis.

The pyrolysis characteristics and kinetics of Polysiphonia elongata were investigated using a thermogravimetric analyzer. The main decomposition of samples occurred between 225 °C and 485 °C at heating rates of 5-40 °C/min; owing to release of 78-82% of total volatiles. The heating rate effected pyrolysis characteristics such as maximum devolatilization rate and decomposition temperature. However, total volatile matter yield was not significantly affected by heating rate. The activation energy of pyrolysis reaction was calculated by model free Friedman and Kissenger-Akahira-Sunose methods and mean values were 116.23 kJ/mol and 126.48 kJ/mol, respectively. A variance in the activation energy with the proceeding conversions was observed for the models applied, which shows that the pyrolysis process was composed of multi-step kinetics. The Coats-Redfern method was used to determine pre-exponential factor and reaction order. The obtained parameters were used in simulation of pyrolysis process and results were in a good agreement with experimental data.