The role of drought as a determinant of hemorrhagic disease in the eastern United States.

Bluetongue virus and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (HD) virus are globally distributed, vector-borne viruses that infect and cause disease in domestic and wild ruminant species. The forces driving increases in resulting HD may be linked to weather conditions and increasing severity has been noted in northerly latitudes. We evaluated the role of drought severity in both space and time on changes in HD reports across the eastern United States for a recent 15 year period. The objectives of this study were to: (a) develop a spatiotemporal model to evaluate if drought severity explains changing patterns of HD presence; and (b) determine whether this potential risk factor varies in importance over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Historic data (2000-2014) from an annual HD presence-absence survey conducted by the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and from the United States Drought Monitor were used for this analysis. For every county in 23 states and for each of 15 years, data were based on reported drought status for August, wetland cover, the physiographic region, and the status of HD in the previous year. We used a generalized linear mixed model to explain HD presence and evaluated spatiotemporal predictors across the region. We found that drought severity was a significant predictor of HD presence and the significance of this relationship was dependent on latitude. In more northerly latitudes, where immunological naivety is most likely, we demonstrated the increasing strength of drought severity as a determinant of reported HD and established the importance of variation in drought severity as a risk factor over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Our research provides spatially explicit evidence for the link between climate forces and emerging disease patterns across latitude for a globally distributed disease.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF WHITE-TAILED DEER (ODOCOILEUS VIRGINIANUS) POPULATION IMPACTS AND RECOVERY FROM EPIZOOTIC HEMORRHAGIC DISEASE.

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is the most significant source of viral disease-related mortality in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the US. Deer mortality from EHD has increased in the state of Michigan, US, since 2006, with the largest outbreak occurring in 2012. The 2012 outbreak provided an opportunity to evaluate how this disease affected EHD-related mortality in deer populations at a spatial scale typical of that expected for the greatest disease risk. Our objectives were to quantify the population impacts and spatial extent of EHD associated with areas of disease risk for deer populations and to determine how populations recovered over time following localized EHD impacts. We estimated the annual local abundance of deer for 5 yr immediately following a recent EHD outbreak. Because proximity to wetlands may affect EHD occurrence, we surveyed deer at varying distances (about 1 km and 5 km) from a riparian corridor to determine spatial variation in population impacts. Further, we assessed differences in deer abundance for sites affected and unaffected by EHD. Abundance estimates were lower along transects near the riparian corridor only in the affected area, reflecting EHD mortality associated with wetlands. The only change in abundance over time was a significant increase in the riparian strata in the EHD-affected site.