The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection. METHODS: Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only). RESULTS: Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15-1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19-1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73-.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62-.81]). CONCLUSIONS: Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Recommendations to the Society for Epidemiologic Research for Further Promoting Diversity and Inclusion at the Annual Meeting and Beyond.

Increasing diverse engagement in the Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) will positively impact the field of epidemiology. As the largest and longest-running epidemiologic society in North America, SER has long been a pioneer in promoting diversity and inclusion. A recent survey of SER members, however, showed there is still room for improving diversity, inclusion, representation, and participation in the Society. In this commentary, as members of both the SER and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology's Inclusion, Diversity, Equity, Anti-Racism, and Science (Epi IDEAS) Working Group, we recommend 4 goals for the SER Annual Meeting and beyond: 1) convene epidemiologic researchers with diverse backgrounds and ideas; 2) promote an inclusive environment at the SER Annual Meeting; 3) develop, compile, and disseminate best practices to honor diversity in epidemiologic research; and 4) increase prioritization of health disparities research and methods. We also suggest strategies for achieving these goals so that SER can better include, support, and elevate members from historically disadvantaged groups. While our recommendations are tailored specifically to SER, the greater epidemiologic and academic communities could benefit from adopting these goals and strategies within their professional societies and conferences.

Estrogen metabolism in menopausal hormone users in the women's health initiative observational study: Does it differ between estrogen plus progestin and estrogen alone?

The WHI found an unexpected reduced breast cancer risk in women using CEE alone. We hypothesized CEE alone induces estrogen hydroxylation along the 2-pathway rather than the competing 16-pathway, a pattern linked to reduced postmenopausal breast cancer risk. One thousand eight hundred and sixty-four women in a WHIOS case-control study of estrogen metabolism and ovarian and endometrial cancer were studied of whom 609 were current E + P users (351 used CEE + MPA), while 272 used E alone (162 used CEE). Fifteen EM were measured, and analyses were conducted for each metabolite, hydroxylation pathway (2-, 4-, or 16-pathway) and ratios of pathway concentrations using inverse probability weighted linear regression. Compared to E + P users, all EM were higher in E alone users (significant for unconjugated estrone, total/conjugated estradiol, total/unconjugated 2-methoxyestrone, 4-methoxyestrone and unconjugated estriol). The relative concentrations of 2- and 4-pathway EM did not differ between the MHT users (2-pathway EM comprised 15% and 4-pathway EM <2% of the total), but 16-pathway EM were lower in E alone users (p = 0.036). Ratios of 2- and 4-pathway EM compared to 16-pathway EM were significantly higher in E alone compared to E + P users. Similar but not significant patterns were observed in CEE-alone and CEE + MPA users. Our data suggest that compared to E + P users, women using E alone have more extensive metabolism via the 2- vs. the competing 16-pathway. This is consistent with epidemiologic evidence of reduced postmenopausal breast cancer risk associated with this metabolic profile and may provide a clue to the breast cancer risk reduction in CEE alone users during the WHI.

Selection and Application of Tissue microRNAs for Nonendoscopic Diagnosis of Barrett's Esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: MicroRNA (miRNA) is highly stable in biospecimens and provides tissue-specific profiles, making it a useful biomarker of carcinogenesis. We aimed to discover a set of miRNAs that could accurately discriminate Barrett's esophagus (BE) from normal esophageal tissue and to test its diagnostic accuracy when applied to samples collected by a noninvasive esophageal cell sampling device. METHODS: We analyzed miRNA expression profiles of 2 independent sets of esophageal biopsy tissues collected during endoscopy from 38 patients with BE and 26 patients with normal esophagus (controls) using Agilent microarray and Nanostring nCounter assays. Consistently up-regulated miRNAs were quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction in esophageal tissues collected by Cytosponge from patients with BE vs without BE. miRNAs were expressed from plasmids and antisense oligonucleotides were expressed in normal esophageal squamous cells; effects on proliferation and gene expression patterns were analyzed. RESULTS: We identified 15 miRNAs that were significantly up-regulated in BE vs control tissues. Of these, 11 (MIR215, MIR194, MIR 192, MIR196a, MIR199b, MIR10a, MIR145, MIR181a, MIR30a, MIR7, and MIR199a) were validated in Cytosponge samples. The miRNAs with the greatest increases in BE tissues (7.9-fold increase in expression or more, P < .0001: MIR196a, MIR192, MIR194, and MIR215) each identified BE vs control tissues with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.82 or more. We developed an optimized multivariable logistic regression model, based on expression levels of 6 miRNAs (MIR7, MIR30a, MIR181a, MIR192, MIR196a, and MIR199a), that identified patients with BE with an AUC value of 0.89, 86.2% sensitivity, and 91.6% specificity. Expression level of MIR192, MIR196a, MIR199a, combined that of trefoil factor 3, identified patients with BE with an AUC of 0.93, 93.1% sensitivity, and 93.7% specificity. Hypomethylation was observed in the promoter region of the highly up-regulated cluster MIR192-MIR194. Overexpression of these miRNAs in normal esophageal squamous cells increased their proliferation, via GRHL3 and PTEN signaling. CONCLUSIONS: In analyses of miRNA expression patterns of BE vs non-BE tissues, we identified a profile that can identify Cytosponge samples from patients with BE with an AUC of 0.93. Expression of MIR194 is increased in BE samples via epigenetic mechanisms that might be involved in BE pathogenesis.

Comparability of serum, plasma, and urinary estrogen and estrogen metabolite measurements by sex and menopausal status.

PURPOSE: The comparability between serum, plasma, and urinary measurements of estrogen metabolites via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has not been largely explored, and it is unclear if urinary LC-MS/MS measurements are suitable surrogates of circulating levels. METHODS: Serum, plasma (EDTA and heparin), and urinary estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels were measured via LC-MS/MS in paired samples from 64 healthy volunteers (18 men, 20 premenopausal women, 26 postmenopausal women). Geometric means and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to compare individual and combined pathway levels of estrogens/estrogen metabolites across biologic matrices by sex/menopausal status. RESULTS: Measured concentrations of estrogens/estrogen metabolites across blood matrices were almost identical (percent differences < 4.8%). Parent estrogen concentrations measured in serum and urine were moderately correlated in postmenopausal women (estrone: r = 0.69, estradiol: r = 0.69). Correlations were similar comparing unconjugated serum estradiol to urinary estrone (r = 0.76) and urinary estradiol (r = 0.65) in postmenopausal women but were moderate to low in premenopausal women (r = 0.60, 0.40, respectively)/men (r = 0.33, 0.53, respectively). Comparing metabolite ratios, proportionally higher concentrations of 16-pathway metabolites were measured in urine versus serum across sex/menopausal status groups (e.g., postmenopausal women: 50.3% 16-pathway metabolites/total in urine versus 35.3% in serum). CONCLUSIONS: There is strong agreement between estrogen/estrogen metabolites measurements in serum, heparin plasma, and EDTA plasma. Individual estrogen metabolite concentrations were moderately correlated between urine and serum, but were not well correlated when evaluating pathway- or relative estrogen concentrations. Differences between serum and urine are likely explained by differences in metabolism and/or excretion.

Circulating estrogens and postmenopausal ovarian and endometrial cancer risk among current hormone users in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

PURPOSE: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use induces alterations in circulating estrogens/estrogen metabolites, which may contribute to the altered risk of reproductive tract cancers among current users. Thus, the current study assessed associations between circulating estrogens/estrogen metabolites and ovarian and endometrial cancer risk among MHT users. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study among postmenopausal women using MHT at baseline in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (179 ovarian cancers, 396 controls; 230 endometrial cancers, 253 controls). Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals overall and by subtype. RESULTS: Estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels were not associated with overall or serous ovarian cancer risk, examined separately. However, unconjugated estradiol was positively associated with non-serous ovarian cancer risk [quintile 5 vs. quintile 1: 3.01 (1.17-7.73); p-trend = 0.03; p-het < 0.01]. Endometrial cancer risk was unrelated to estrogen/estrogen metabolite levels among women who took combined estrogen/progestin therapy (EPT). CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide novel evidence that may support a heterogeneous hormonal etiology across ovarian cancer subtypes. Circulating estrogens did not influence endometrial cancer risk among women with EPT-induced high-estrogen levels. Larger studies are needed to delineate the relationship between ovarian/endometrial cancer subtypes and estrogen levels in the context of MHT use.

Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA. DESIGN: Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks. RESULTS: There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest.

Alcohol and oestrogen metabolites in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of several cancers. Potential mechanisms include altered oestrogen metabolism. Parent oestrogens metabolise into alternate pathways of oestrogen metabolites that may have variable effects on cancer pathogenesis. We examined associations of alcohol consumption with circulating oestrogen/oestrogen metabolites in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of prediagnosis ovarian/endometrial cancer case-control data within WHI-OS (N=1864). Alcohol consumption was measured by validated food frequency questionnaire. Fasting serum parent oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites were assayed using liquid chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry. Geometric mean analyte concentrations (GM, pmol l-1) were calculated by alcohol category using inverse-probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for venepuncture age/year, race, smoking, body mass index, years since menopause, oral contraceptive duration, caffeine intake, and physical activity. RESULTS: There was evidence for a positive association between alcohol consumption and oestrone, oestradiol and 2-hydroxylation oestrogen metabolite concentrations among menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) users. We observed an association between liquor consumption and parent oestrogens among non-MHT users, who consumed larger doses of liquor than MHT users. CONCLUSIONS: Among postmenopausal women, the association between alcohol intake and parent oestrogen, but not oestrogen metabolite concentrations, may be influenced by MHT and type of alcohol.

Anthropometric measures and serum estrogen metabolism in postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Several anthropometric measures have been associated with hormone-related cancers. However, it is unknown whether estrogen metabolism plays an important role in these relationships. We examined whether measured current body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), height, and self-reported BMI at age 18 years were associated with serum estrogens/estrogen metabolites using baseline, cross-sectional data from 1835 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. METHODS: Fifteen estrogens/estrogen metabolites were quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric means (GMs) of estrogens/estrogen metabolites (in picomoles per liter) were estimated using inverse probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders and stratified on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use. RESULTS: Among never or former MHT users, current BMI (≥30 vs. <25 kg/m2) was positively associated with parent estrogens (multivariable adjusted GM 432 vs. 239 pmol/L for estrone, 74 vs. 46 pmol/L for estradiol; p-trend < 0.001 for both) and all of the 2-, 4-, and 16-pathway estrogen metabolites evaluated (all p-trend ≤ 0.02). After additional adjustment for estradiol, unconjugated methylated 2-catechols were inversely associated (e.g., 2-methoxyestrone multivariable GM 9.3 vs. 12.0 pmol/L; p-trend < 0.001). Among current MHT users, current BMI was not associated with parent estrogens but was inversely associated with methylated catechols (e.g., 2-methoxyestrone multivariable GM 216 vs. 280 pmol/L; p-trend = 0.008). Similar patterns of association were found with WHR; however, the associations were not independent of BMI. Height and BMI at age 18 years were not associated with postmenopausal estrogens/estrogen metabolite levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that postmenopausal BMI is associated with increased circulating levels of parent estrogens and reduced methylation of catechol estrogen metabolites, the estrogen metabolism patterns that have previously been associated with higher breast cancer risk.

TMPRSS2:ERG Gene Fusions in Prostate Cancer of West African Men and a Meta-Analysis of Racial Differences.

The prevalence of fusions of the transmembrane protease, serine 2, gene (TMPRSS2) with the erythroblast transformation-specific-related gene (ERG), or TMPRSS2:ERG, in prostate cancer varies by race. However, such somatic aberration and its association with prognostic factors have neither been studied in a West African population nor been systematically reviewed in the context of racial differences. We used immunohistochemistry to assess oncoprotein encoded by the ERG gene as the established surrogate of ERG fusion genes among 262 prostate cancer biopsies from the Ghana Prostate Study (2004-2006). Poisson regression with robust variance estimation provided prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals of ERG expression in relation to patient characteristics. We found that 47 of 262 (18%) prostate cancers were ERG-positive, and being negative for ERG staining was associated with higher Gleason score. We further conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in relation to race, Gleason score, and tumor stage, combining results from Ghana with 40 additional studies. Meta-analysis showed the prevalence of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in prostate cancer to be highest in men of European descent (49%), followed by men of Asian (27%) and then African (25%) descent. The lower prevalence of TMPRSS2:ERG fusions in men of African descent implies that alternative genomic mechanisms might explain the disproportionately high prostate cancer burden in such populations.

Sitting, physical activity, and serum oestrogen metabolism in postmenopausal women: the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Prolonged sitting and lower levels of physical activity have been associated with increased levels of parent oestrogens (oestrone and oestradiol), the key hormones in female cancers, in postmenopausal women. However, it is unknown whether sitting and physical activity are associated with circulating oestrogen metabolite levels. METHODS: Among 1804 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, 15 serum oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites were quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Physical activity and sitting were self-reported via questionnaire. Using baseline, cross-sectional data, geometric means (GM) of oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites (pmol l-1) were estimated using inverse probability weighted linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders and stratified on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use. RESULTS: Longer time spent sitting (⩾10 vs ⩽5h per day) was associated with higher levels of unconjugated oestrone, independent of moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity and body mass index, among both never/former (GM=70.6 vs 57.7) and current MHT users (GM=242 vs 179) (P-trend ⩽0.03). Among never/former MHT users, sitting (⩾10 vs ⩽5h per day) was positively associated with 2-methoxyestradiol (GM=16.4 vs 14.4) and 4-methoxyestradiol (GM=2.36 vs 1.98) (P-trend ⩽0.04), independent of parent oestrogens. Inverse associations between moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (⩾15 vs 0 metabolic equivalent task-hours per week) and parent oestrogens were found as expected. After adjustment for parent oestrogens, physical activity was not associated with oestrogen metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that prolonged sitting and lower moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity are associated with higher levels of postmenopausal oestrogens/oestrogen metabolites, the oestrogen metabolism patterns that have previously been associated with higher endometrial and breast cancer risk.

Lower endoscopy, early-onset, and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and lower or similar CRC screening among people with HIV (PWH) compared with the general population. We evaluated the incidence of lower endoscopy and average-onset (diagnosed at ≥50) and early-onset (diagnosed at <50) colon cancer by HIV status among Medicaid beneficiares with comparable sociodemographic factors and access to care. METHODS: We obtained Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from 2001 to 2015 for 14 states. We included 41 727 243 and 42 062 552 unique individuals with at least 7 months of continuous eligibility for the endoscopy and colon cancer analysis, respectively. HIV and colon cancer diagnoses and endoscopy procedures were identified from inpatient and other nondrug claims. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess endoscopy and colon cancer incidence, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, calendar year and state of enrollment, and comorbidities conditions. RESULTS: Endoscopy and colon cancer incidence increased with age in both groups. Compared with beneficiaries without HIV, PWH had an increased hazard of endoscopy; this association was strongest among those 18-39 years [hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.77-1.92] and attenuated with age. PWH 18-39 years also had increased hazard of early-onset colon cancer (hazard ratio: 1.66, 95% CI:1.05-2.62); this association was attenuated after comorbidity adjustment. Hazard ratios were null among all beneficiaries less than 50 years of age. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer compared with those without HIV (hazard ratio: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94). CONCLUSION: PWH had a higher hazard of endoscopy, particularly at younger ages. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer. Early-onset colon cancer was higher among the youngest PWH but not associated with HIV overall.

Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america.

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years. METHODS: Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH. RESULTS: During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS. CONCLUSION: Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

The changing prevalence of anemia and risk factors in people with HIV in North America who have initiated ART, 2007-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the prevalence of anemia and risk factors between 2007 and 2017 for moderate/severe anemia among people with HIV (PWH) in North America who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: We estimated the annual prevalence between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017 of mild (11.0-12.9 g/dl men, 11.0-11.9 g/dl women), moderate (8.0-10.9 g/dl regardless of sex) and severe (<8.0 g/dl regardless of sex) anemia. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals ([-]) comparing risk factors for moderate/severe vs. no/mild anemia between 2007 and 2017. RESULTS: Among 73 898 PWH we observed 366 755 hemoglobin measurements following ART initiation, 37 301 (50%) had one or more measures of anemia during follow-up (mild = 17 743 [24%]; moderate = 13 383[18%]; severe = 6175 [8%]). Moderate/severe anemia was more prevalent among women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic PWH (vs. non-Hispanic white), those with underweight body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2) and with comorbidities and coinfections. Older age had increased prevalence of moderate/severe anemia among males and decreased prevalence among females. Prevalence of moderate/severe anemia was greater among those with lower CD4+ cell count (≤200 cells/µl) [aPR = 2.11 (2.06-2.17)] unsuppressed HIV viral load (>200 copies/ml) [aPR = 1.26 (1.23-1.29)] and within the first 6 months of ART initiation (vs. >1 year of ART) [aPR = 1.66 (1.61-1.72)]. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of anemia among PWH is reduced after ART initiation but remains high. Risk factors differ by sex and include comorbidities and HIV disease severity. The persistent, substantial prevalence of anemia among PWH merits further investigation, targeted screening, and clinical interventions.

Hepatitis B care cascade among people with HIV/HBV coinfection in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, 2012-2016.

A care cascade is a critical tool for evaluating delivery of care for chronic infections across sequential stages, starting with diagnosis and ending with viral suppression. However, there have been few data describing the hepatitis B virus (HBV) care cascade among people living with HIV infection who have HBV coinfection. We conducted a cross-sectional study among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection receiving care between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016 within 13 United States and Canadian clinical cohorts contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). We evaluated each of the steps in this cascade, including: 1) laboratory-confirmed HBV infection, 2) tenofovir-based or entecavir-based HBV therapy prescribed, 3) HBV DNA measured during treatment, and 4) viral suppression achieved via undetectable HBV DNA. Among 3,953 persons with laboratory-confirmed HBV (median age, 50 years; 6.5% female; 43.8% were Black; 7.1% were Hispanic), 3,592 (90.9%; 95% confidence interval, 90.0-91.8%) were prescribed tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy or entecavir along with their antiretroviral therapy regimen, 2,281 (57.7%; 95% confidence interval, 56.2-59.2%) had HBV DNA measured while on therapy, and 1,624 (41.1%; 95% confidence interval, 39.5-42.6) achieved an undetectable HBV DNA during HBV treatment. Our study identified significant gaps in measurement of HBV DNA and suppression of HBV viremia among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection in the United States and Canada. Periodic evaluation of the HBV care cascade among persons with HIV/HBV will be critical to monitoring success in completion of each step.

The Association Between HIV Status, Estradiol, and Sex Hormone Binding Globulin Among Premenopausal Women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study.

Background: Characterizing estradiol among women with HIV may have implications for breast cancer and cardiovascular disease risk but has not been adequately explored. We quantified differences in total (E2), free (FE2) estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by HIV and viral suppression status. Methods: Women from a substudy (2003-2006) within the Women's Interagency HIV Study (IRB approved at each participating site) were included if they reported: a period in the last six months, were not pregnant/breastfeeding, no oophorectomy, and no exogenous hormone use in the prior year. Serum was collected on days 2-4 of the menstrual cycle. We assessed differences in biomarkers at 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles by HIV and viral suppression status using weighted quantile regression. Results: Among 643 women (68% with HIV) median age was 37 years. All E2 percentiles were significantly (p < 0.05) lower in women with suppressed viral load versus women without HIV (4-10 pg/mL). The 25th and 50th percentile of E2 were 4-5 pg/mL lower in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (p < 0.05). The 25th and 50th percentile of SHBG was significantly higher in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (10 and 12 nmol/L, respectively). There were no consistent differences in estradiol or SHBG by suppression status. Conclusions: There were no differences in FE2 but significantly lower E2 and higher SHBG among women with HIV versus without HIV. Further research is merited in a large contemporary sample to clarify the clinical implications of these findings.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Seroprevalence in Decedents Undergoing Forensic Postmortem Examination: Feasibility for Real-Time Pandemic Surveillance.

Background: Population-based seroprevalence studies offer comprehensive characterization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread, but barriers exist and marginalized populations may not be captured. We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody seroprevalence among decedents in Maryland over 6 months in 2020. Methods: Data were collected on decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination in Maryland from 24 May through 30 November 2020 from whom a blood specimen could be collected. Those with available blood specimens were tested with the CoronaCHEK lateral flow antibody assay. We assessed monthly seroprevalence compared to the statewide estimated number of cases and proportion of positive test results (testing positivity). We used Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of demographic characteristics, homelessness, and manner of death with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Results: Among 1906 decedents, 305 (16%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Monthly seroprevalence increased from 11% to 22% over time and was consistently higher than state-level estimates of testing positivity. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with 2- to 3.2-fold higher seropositivity (P < .05) irrespective of sex. Deaths due to motor vehicle crash were associated with 62% increased seropositivity (aPR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.15-2.28]) vs natural manner of death. Though seroprevalence was lower in decedents of illicit drug overdose vs nonoverdose in early months, this shifted, and seroprevalence was comparable by November 2020. Conclusions: Decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination, especially those dying due to motor vehicle trauma, may be a sentinel population for COVID-19 spread in the general population and merits exploration in other states/regions.