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BACKGROUND: Recently we proposed an evolutionary explanation for a spinal pathology that afflicts many people, intervertebral disc herniation (Plomp et al. [2015] BMC Evolutionary Biology 15, 68). Using 2D data, we found that the bodies and pedicles of lower vertebrae of pathological humans were more similar in shape to those of chimpanzees than were those of healthy humans. Based on this, we hypothesized that some individuals are more prone to intervertebral disc herniation because their vertebrae exhibit ancestral traits and therefore are less well adapted for the stresses associated with bipedalism. Here, we report a study in which we tested this "Ancestral Shape Hypothesis" with 3D data from the last two thoracic and first lumbar vertebrae of pathological Homo sapiens, healthy H. sapiens, Pan troglodytes, and several extinct hominins. RESULTS: We found that the pathological and healthy H. sapiens vertebrae differed significantly in shape, and that the pathological H. sapiens vertebrae were closer in shape to the P. troglodytes vertebrae than were the healthy H. sapiens vertebrae. Additionally, we found that the pathological human vertebrae were generally more similar in shape to the vertebrae of the extinct hominins than were the healthy H. sapiens vertebrae. These results are consistent with the predictions of the Ancestral Shape Hypothesis. Several vertebral traits were associated with disc herniation, including a vertebral body that is both more circular and more ventrally wedged, relatively short pedicles and laminae, relatively long, more cranio-laterally projecting transverse processes, and relatively long, cranially-oriented spinous processes. We found that there are biomechanical and comparative anatomical reasons for suspecting that all of these traits are capable of predisposing individuals to intervertebral disc herniation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study add weight to the hypothesis that intervertebral disc herniation in H. sapiens is connected with vertebral shape. Specifically, they suggest that individuals whose vertebrae are towards the ancestral end of the range of shape variation within H. sapiens have a greater propensity to develop the condition than other individuals. More generally, the study shows that evolutionary thinking has the potential to shed new light on human skeletal pathologies.
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Fósseis , Hominidae/anatomia & histologia , Deslocamento do Disco Intervertebral/patologia , Vértebras Lombares/patologia , Pan troglodytes/anatomia & histologia , Vértebras Torácicas/patologia , Animais , Evolução Biológica , Humanos , Disco Intervertebral/patologia , Vértebras Lombares/anatomia & histologia , Vértebras Torácicas/anatomia & histologiaRESUMO
A number of putative adaptations for bipedalism have been identified in the hominin spine. However, it is possible that some have been overlooked because only a few studies have used 3D and these studies have focused on cervical vertebrae. With this in mind, we used geometric morphometric techniques to compare the 3D shapes of three thoracic and two lumbar vertebrae of Homo sapiens, Pan troglodytes, Gorilla gorilla, and Pongo pygmaeus. The study had two goals. One was to confirm the existence of traits previously reported to distinguish the thoracic and lumbar vertebrae of H. sapiens from those of the great apes. The other was to, if possible, identify hitherto undescribed traits that differentiate H. sapiens thoracic and lumbar vertebrae from those of the great apes. Both goals were accomplished. Our analyses not only substantiated a number of traits that have previously been discussed in the literature but also identified four traits that have not been described before: (1) dorsoventrally shorter pedicles in the upper thoracic vertebrae; (2) dorsoventrally longer laminae in all five of the vertebrae examined; (3) longer transverse processes in the upper thoracic vertebrae; and (4) craniocaudally 'pinched' spinous process tips in all of the vertebrae examined. A review of the biomechanical literature suggests that most of the traits highlighted in our analyses can be plausibly linked to bipedalism, including three of the four new ones. As such, the present study not only sheds further light on the differences between the spines of H. sapiens and great apes but also enhances our understanding of how the shift to bipedalism affected the hominin vertebral column.
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Adaptação Biológica , Vértebras Lombares/anatomia & histologia , Vértebras Torácicas/anatomia & histologia , Caminhada , HumanosRESUMO
Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record.
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OBJECTIVES: The causes of variation in breastfeeding duration in humans are poorly understood, but life history factors related to maternal energetics drive much of the variation in lactation duration in nonhuman animals. With this in mind, we investigated whether four energy-related factors influence variation in breastfeeding duration in a non-industrial human population: (1) mortality risk during mother's development (assessed via mother's adult height), (2) reliance on nutrient-dense weaning foods, (3) access to and need for help with infant feeding and care ("allomaternal care"), and (4) maternal tradeoffs between current and future reproduction (measured via child's birth order). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data pertain to 51 Kakchiquel-speaking Maya mothers and 283 children from a village in rural Guatemala. We developed a linear mixed model to evaluate the relationships between breastfeeding duration and the energy-related factors. RESULTS: Duration of breastfeeding was associated with two of the energy-related factors in the ways we predicted but not with the other two. Contrary to predictions, taller mothers breastfed for shorter periods and we found no evidence that weanling diet quality impacts breastfeeding duration. As predicted, women who had more help with infants breastfed for shorter periods, and later-born infants breastfed longer than earlier-born ones. DISCUSSION: The results regarding allomaternal care suggest that help reduces mothers' lactation demands. The energy saved may be redirected to increasing fecundity or investment in other children. The birth order result suggests that children born to mothers nearing reproductive senescence receive higher levels of investment, which likely impacts children's fitness.
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Aleitamento Materno/etnologia , Indígenas Centro-Americanos/etnologia , Desmame/etnologia , Antropologia Física , Estatura , Metabolismo Energético , Feminino , Guatemala/etnologia , Humanos , População Rural , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Economic transitions expose indigenous populations to a variety of ecological and cultural challenges, especially regarding diet and stress. These kinds of challenges are predicted by evolutionary ecological theory to have fitness consequences (differential reproduction) and, indeed, are often associated with changes in fertility dynamics. It is currently unclear whether international immigration might impact the nature of such an economic transition or its consequences for fertility. AIM: To examine measures of fertility, diet and stress in two economically transitioning Maya villages in Guatemala that have been differentially exposed to immigration by Westerners. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This study compared Maya women's ages at first birth and birth rates between villages and investigated whether these fertility indicators changed through time. It also explored whether the villages differed in relation to diet and/or a proxy of stress. RESULTS: It was found that, in the village directly impacted by immigration, first births occurred earlier, but birth rate was slower. In both villages, over the sampled time window, age at first birth increased, while birth rate decreased. The villages do not differ significantly in dietary indicators, but the immigration-affected village scored higher on the stress proxy. CONCLUSION: Immigration can affect fertility in host communities. This relationship between immigration and fertility dynamics may be partly attributable to stress, but this possibility should be evaluated prospectively in future research.
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Coeficiente de Natalidade , Emigração e Imigração , Estresse Fisiológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Dieta , Economia , Feminino , Guatemala , Humanos , População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed.
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Fósseis/anatomia & histologia , Hominidae/anatomia & histologia , Hominidae/classificação , Filogenia , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Evolução BiológicaRESUMO
The goal of this paper is to provoke debate about the nature of an iconic artifact-the Acheulean handaxe. Specifically, we want to initiate a conversation about whether or not they are cultural objects. The vast majority of archeologists assume that the behaviors involved in the production of handaxes were acquired by social learning and that handaxes are therefore cultural. We will argue that this assumption is not warranted on the basis of the available evidence and that an alternative hypothesis should be given serious consideration. This alternative hypothesis is that the form of Acheulean handaxes was at least partly under genetic control.
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Arqueologia , Comportamento de Utilização de Ferramentas , Animais , Aves , Fósseis , França , História Antiga , Hominidae , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest there is a relationship between intervertebral disc herniation and vertebral shape. The nature of this relationship is unclear, however. Humans are more commonly afflicted with spinal disease than are non-human primates and one suggested explanation for this is the stress placed on the spine by bipedalism. With this in mind, we carried out a study of human, chimpanzee, and orangutan vertebrae to examine the links between vertebral shape, locomotion, and Schmorl's nodes, which are bony indicators of vertical intervertebral disc herniation. We tested the hypothesis that vertical disc herniation preferentially affects individuals with vertebrae that are towards the ancestral end of the range of shape variation within Homo sapiens and therefore are less well adapted for bipedalism. RESULTS: The study employed geometric morphometric techniques. Two-dimensional landmarks were used to capture the shapes of the superior aspect of the body and posterior elements of the last thoracic and first lumbar vertebrae of chimpanzees, orangutans, and humans with and without Schmorl's nodes. These data were subjected to multivariate statistical analyses. Canonical Variates Analysis indicated that the last thoracic and first lumbar vertebrae of healthy humans, chimpanzees, and orangutans can be distinguished from each other (p<0.028), but vertebrae of pathological humans and chimpanzees cannot (p>0.4590). The Procrustes distance between pathological humans and chimpanzees was found to be smaller than the one between pathological and healthy humans. This was the case for both vertebrae. Pair-wise MANOVAs of Principal Component scores for both the thoracic and lumbar vertebrae found significant differences between all pairs of taxa (p<0.029), except pathological humans vs chimpanzees (p>0.367). Together, these results suggest that human vertebrae with Schmorl's nodes are closer in shape to chimpanzee vertebrae than are healthy human vertebrae. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the hypothesis that intervertebral disc herniation preferentially affects individuals with vertebrae that are towards the ancestral end of the range of shape variation within H. sapiens and therefore are less well adapted for bipedalism. This finding not only has clinical implications but also illustrates the benefits of bringing the tools of evolutionary biology to bear on problems in medicine and public health.
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Disco Intervertebral/metabolismo , Animais , Evolução Biológica , Hominidae , Humanos , Disco Intervertebral/patologia , Deslocamento do Disco Intervertebral/patologia , Pan troglodytes/anatomia & histologia , Pongo/anatomia & histologia , Coluna Vertebral/anatomia & histologia , Coluna Vertebral/patologiaRESUMO
The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty-use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics--the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships.
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Evolução Biológica , Fósseis/anatomia & histologia , Hominidae/anatomia & histologia , Hominidae/classificação , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Georgia , Indonésia , Filogenia , África do SulRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) predicts that gestation duration, lactation duration, and their sum, total development time, are constrained by mass-specific basal metabolic rate such that they should scale with body mass with an exponent of 0.25. However, tests of the MTE's predictions have yielded mixed results. In an effort to resolve this uncertainty, we used phylogenetically-controlled regression to investigate the allometries of gestation duration, lactation duration, and total development time in four well-studied mammalian orders, Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Primates, and Rodentia. RESULTS: The results we obtained are not consistent with the predictions of the MTE. Gestation duration scaling exponents are below 0.25 in all four orders. The scaling exponent for lactation duration is below 0.25 in Carnivora and Rodentia, indistinguishable from 0.25 in Artiodactyls, and steeper than 0.25 in Primates. Total development time scales with body mass as predicted by the MTE in Primates, but not in artiodactyls, carnivores, and rodents. In the latter three orders, the exponent is 0.15. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these results indicate that the influence of basal metabolic rate on mammalian maternal investment durations must be more complicated than the MTE envisages, and that other factors must play an important role. Future research needs to allow for the possibility that different factors drive gestation duration and lactation duration, and that the drivers of the two durations may differ among orders.
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Metabolismo Basal , Metabolismo Energético , Mamíferos/classificação , Mamíferos/fisiologia , Animais , Feminino , Lactação , Filogenia , GravidezRESUMO
Body mass estimates are integral to a wide range of inferences in paleoanthropology. Most techniques employ postcranial elements, but predictive equations based on cranial variables have also been developed. Three studies currently provide regression equations for estimating mass from cranial variables, but none of the equations has been tested on samples of known mass. Nor have the equations been compared to each other in terms of performance. Consequently, this study assessed the performance of existing cranial equations using computed tomography scans from a large, documented sample of modern humans of known body mass. Virtual models of the skull were reconstructed and measured using computer software, and the resulting variables were entered into three sets of published regression equations. Estimated and known body masses were then compared. For most equations, prediction errors were high and few individuals were estimated within ±20% of their known mass. Only one equation satisfied the accuracy criteria. In addition, variables that had been previously argued to be good predictors of mass in hominins, including humans, did not estimate mass reliably. These results have important implications for paleoanthropology. In particular, they emphasize the need to develop new equations for estimating fossil hominin body mass from cranial variables.
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Estatura/fisiologia , Peso Corporal/fisiologia , Fósseis , Hominidae/anatomia & histologia , Crânio/anatomia & histologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Animais , Antropologia Física , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise de Regressão , Crânio/diagnóstico por imagem , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Establishing a link between mandibular morphology and diet in extant primates has long been a goal in biological anthropology because it should provide important insight into the diets of extinct primates, including fossil hominins. To date, efforts to explore this question have produced mixed results, largely perhaps due to a reliance on the use of 2D morphological data. Here, we report a study where we investigated whether 3D shape data would provide a clearer picture. We used geometric morphometrics to analyse 3D mandibular shape variation in a sample of > 200 primate specimens, representing individuals from 27 species and five families. Two sets of analyses investigated i) whether there was a relationship between mandibular shape and four standard dietary categories and ii) whether there was a relationship between mandibular shape and a well-known index of diet quality. We found an association between mandibular shape and the dietary categories when we employed raw Procrustes coordinates and allometry-free residuals, but the relationship was weak to non-existent when the effects of phylogeny were taken into account. We found no relationship between shape and the diet quality index, no matter whether the data were raw, corrected for the effects of allometry, corrected for the effects of phylogeny, or corrected for the effects of both allometry and phylogeny. Taken together, the results of the two sets of analyses suggest that there is a weak relationship between 3D mandibular shape and diet in extant primates. Allometry and phylogeny appear to be more important influences on the 3D shape of extant primate mandibles than is diet. We conclude from this that 3D analysis of mandibular shape is unlikely to further illuminate the diets of extinct primates, and research efforts should, therefore, be directed elsewhere.
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Antropologia Física , Dieta , Mandíbula , Primatas , Animais , Mandíbula/anatomia & histologia , Dieta/estatística & dados numéricos , Primatas/anatomia & histologia , Masculino , Feminino , Imageamento TridimensionalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: One of the main recommendations of the Paleo Diet is that individuals replicate the whole-diet macronutrient ranges of hunter-gatherer diets. These are suggested to be 19%-35% protein, 22%-40% carbohydrate, and 28%-58% fat, by energy. However, the plant food contribution to these ranges was estimated exclusively from Australian data, which is a potential problem. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether estimates of the contribution of protein, carbohydrate, and fat to hunter-gatherer diets are impacted by using plant data from other regions of the world. METHODS: The values that form the basis of the Paleo Diet' s recommended macronutrient ranges were generated with a set of equations. We combined these equations with published plant macronutrient data from a multi-region sample of 5 hunter-gatherer groups to generate new estimated macronutrient percentages and then statistically compared the old and new estimates. Subsequently, we collated plant macronutrient data for a sample of 10 hunter-gatherer groups from several regions and repeated the exercise. RESULTS: The whole-diet macronutrient percentages we calculated are significantly different from those that underpin the Paleo Diet's recommendations. Additionally, the ranges derived from our whole-diet macronutrient percentages (14%-35% protein, 21%-55% carbohydrate, 12%-58% fat) are markedly wider than those recommended by the Paleo Diet. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated whole-diet macronutrient percentages that form the basis of the Paleo Diet's macronutrient recommendations are not robust. Using plant data from multiple regions leads to significantly different estimates. Additionally, the macronutrient ranges derived from our whole-diet macronutrient percentages overlap with those recommended by the US Department of Agriculture and the WHO. This undercuts one of the main justifications for adopting the Paleo Diet-namely that because it is vastly different from Western diets, it can reduce the probability of experiencing noncommunicable diseases. There may still be reasons for adopting the Paleo Diet rather than a conventional diet, but healthier macronutrient percentages is not one of them.
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Comparação Transcultural , Dieta Paleolítica , Humanos , Austrália , Dieta , Nutrientes , Dieta Ocidental , CarboidratosRESUMO
Gestation duration and lactation duration are usually treated as independently evolving traits in primates, but the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) suggests both durations should be determined by metabolic rate. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares linear regression to test these different perspectives. We found that the allometries of the durations are divergent from each other and different from the scaling exponent predicted by the MTE (0.25). Gestation duration increases much more slowly (0.06 < m < 0.12), and lactation duration much more quickly (0.36 < m < 0.52) with body mass than the MTE predicts. By contrast, we found that the combined duration of gestation and lactation is consistent with the MTE's predictions (0.22 < m < 0.35). These results suggest that gestation duration and lactation duration might best be viewed as distinct but coupled adaptations. When transferring energy to their offspring, primate mothers must meet metabolically dictated physiological requirements while optimizing the timing of the switch from gestation to lactation in relation to some as-yet-unidentified body-size-related factor.
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Evolução Biológica , Metabolismo Energético/fisiologia , Lactação/fisiologia , Gravidez/fisiologia , Primatas/fisiologia , Animais , Tamanho Corporal , Feminino , Análise dos Mínimos Quadrados , Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos Biológicos , Filogenia , Especificidade da Espécie , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
We report an assessment of the ability of the Locally-Adaptive Model of Archaeological Potential (LAMAP) to estimate archaeological potential in relation to hunter-gatherer sites. The sample comprised 182 known sites in the Tanana Valley, Alaska, which was occupied solely by hunter-gatherers for about 14,500 years. To estimate archaeological potential, we employed physiographic variables such as elevation and slope, rather than variables that are known to vary on short time scales, like vegetation cover. Two tests of LAMAP were carried out. In the first, we used the location of a random selection of 90 sites from all time periods to create a LAMAP model. We then evaluated the model with the remaining 92 sites. In the second test, we built a LAMAP model from 12 sites that pre-date 10,000 cal BP. This model was then tested with sites that post-date 10,000 cal BP. In both analyses, areas predicted to have higher archaeological potential contained higher frequencies of validation sites. The performance of LAMAP in the two tests was comparable to its performance in previous tests using archaeological sites occupied by agricultural societies. Thus, the study extends the use of LAMAP to the task of estimating archaeological potential of landscapes in relation to hunter-gatherer sites.
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Arqueologia , Meio Ambiente , AlaskaRESUMO
Recently it has been suggested that one or more large extraterrestrial (ET) objects struck northern North America 12,900 +/- 100 calendar years before present (calBP) [Firestone RB, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 16016-16021]. This impact is claimed to have triggered the Younger Dryas major cooling event and resulted in the extinction of the North American megafauna. The impact is also claimed to have caused major cultural changes and population decline among the Paleoindians. Here, we report a study in which approximately 1,500 radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites in Canada and the United States were used to test the hypothesis that the ET resulted in population decline among the Paleoindians. Following recent studies [e.g., Gamble C, Davies W, Pettitt P, Hazelwood L, Richards M (2005) Camb Archaeol J 15:193-223), the summed probability distribution of the calibrated dates was used to identify probable changes in human population size between 15,000 and 9,000 calBP. Subsequently, potential biases were evaluated by modeling and spatial analysis of the dated occupations. The results of the analyses were not consistent with the predictions of extraterrestrial impact hypothesis. No evidence of a population decline among the Paleoindians at 12,900 +/- 100 calBP was found. Thus, minimally, the study suggests the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis should be amended.
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Indígenas Norte-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Meteoroides , Modelos Teóricos , Densidade Demográfica , Canadá , Humanos , Paleontologia , Probabilidade , Fatores de Tempo , Estados UnidosRESUMO
The settlement of Great Britain by Germanic-speaking people from continental northwest Europe in the Early Medieval period (early 5th to mid 11th centuries CE) has long been recognised as an important event, but uncertainty remains about the number of settlers and the nature of their relationship with the preexisting inhabitants of the island. In the study reported here, we sought to shed light on these issues by using 3D shape analysis techniques to compare the cranial bases of Anglo-Saxon skeletons to those of skeletons from Great Britain that pre-date the Early Medieval period and skeletons from Denmark that date to the Iron Age. Analyses that focused on Early Anglo-Saxon skeletons indicated that between two-thirds and three-quarters of Anglo-Saxon individuals were of continental northwest Europe ancestry, while between a quarter and one-third were of local ancestry. In contrast, analyses that focused on Middle Anglo-Saxon skeletons suggested that 50-70% were of local ancestry, while 30-50% were of continental northwest Europe ancestry. Our study suggests, therefore, that ancestry in Early Medieval Britain was similar to what it is today-mixed and mutable.
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História Medieval , Emigração e Imigração/estatística & dados numéricos , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Reino Unido , População BrancaRESUMO
Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.