Current water quality guidelines across North America and Europe do not protect lakes from salinization.

Human-induced salinization caused by the use of road deicing salts, agricultural practices, mining operations, and climate change is a major threat to the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Yet, it is unclear if freshwater ecosystems are protected from salinization by current water quality guidelines. Leveraging an experimental network of land-based and in-lake mesocosms across North America and Europe, we tested how salinization-indicated as elevated chloride (Cl-) concentration-will affect lake food webs and if two of the lowest Cl- thresholds found globally are sufficient to protect these food webs. Our results indicated that salinization will cause substantial zooplankton mortality at the lowest Cl- thresholds established in Canada (120 mg Cl-/L) and the United States (230 mg Cl-/L) and throughout Europe where Cl- thresholds are generally higher. For instance, at 73% of our study sites, Cl- concentrations that caused a ≥50% reduction in cladoceran abundance were at or below Cl- thresholds in Canada, in the United States, and throughout Europe. Similar trends occurred for copepod and rotifer zooplankton. The loss of zooplankton triggered a cascading effect causing an increase in phytoplankton biomass at 47% of study sites. Such changes in lake food webs could alter nutrient cycling and water clarity and trigger declines in fish production. Current Cl- thresholds across North America and Europe clearly do not adequately protect lake food webs. Water quality guidelines should be developed where they do not exist, and there is an urgent need to reassess existing guidelines to protect lake ecosystems from human-induced salinization.

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density.

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

Relation between in utero arsenic exposure and growth during the first year of life in a New Hampshire pregnancy cohort.

BACKGROUND: We have previously reported that in utero arsenic exposure is associated with increased length and other anthropometric outcomes at birth in a U.S. cohort. However, it is unknown whether these anthropometric differences persist through early life. OBJECTIVES: We assessed in utero arsenic exposure in relation to attained anthropometry and growth trajectories through the first year of life. METHODS: Among 760 mother-infant pairs from the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study, we assessed in utero arsenic exposure using maternal second trimester urinary arsenic and assessed infant growth from medical records. RESULTS: Median maternal second trimester total urinary arsenic (tAs; inorganic arsenic + monomethylarsonic acid + dimethylarsinic acid) was 3.96 µg/L (IQR: 2.02, 6.72). In adjusted linear mixed effects models, each doubling of maternal urinary tAs was associated with a 0.05 increase in length WHO Z score (95% CI: 0, 0.09) over the first year of life which corresponds to an approximately 0.12 cm increase in males and 0.13 cm increase in females at 12 months. No associations were observed between urinary tAs and attained weight, weight-for-length, or head circumference. In adjusted piecewise linear mixed effects models, each doubling of urinary tAs was associated with a 0.07 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.12) cm per month decreased length growth rate through 3.5 months with no evidence of an association thereafter. No associations were observed between urinary tAs and infant weight gain or change in weight-for-length and head circumference through one year. CONCLUSIONS: On average, infants exposed to higher in utero arsenic attained modestly longer length during the first year, despite having slower linear growth in the first 3.5 months of life. This suggests that the previously demonstrated arsenic-associated longer length among study infants at birth persists through the first year of life. No other anthropometric associations with in utero arsenic exposure were observed across the full study population.

No detectable changes in crayfish behavior due to sublethal dietary mercury exposure.

Mercury, and particularly its organic form, methylmercury (MeHg), is a ubiquitous environmental contaminant with documented dosage-dependent adverse effects on endpoints spanning many levels of biological organization. However, relatively little is known about the sublethal impacts of environmentally-relevant exposures on behavioral characteristics that may impact predator-prey relationships, and thus the potential for Hg bioaccumulation within food webs due to behavioral impairments. This study investigated the potential for dietary mercury exposure to impair two behavioral outcomes in the highly invasive rusty crayfish, Faxonius rusticus, which are expected to influence interactions with their fish predators: the tail-flip escape response and chelae pinch strength. Field-caught animals were randomly assigned to four dietary treatments with mean (±1 SE) dry-weight total Hg (THg) concentrations of 3.52 ±â€¯0.57, 114.01 ±â€¯4.05, 274.10 ±â€¯0.38, and 565.79 ±â€¯1.33 ng/g in the control, low, moderate and high exposure treatments, respectively, for 16 weeks. After initial observations, exposures began and mass and behavior were measured every two weeks. At the end of the experiment, THg concentrations in tail muscle tissue were significantly higher in the high exposure treatment than in the control and low exposure treatments (Tukey's HSD, family-wise α = 0.05). Exposure-dependent declines in survival, mass, pinch strength, or tail-flip escape response velocity were not detected within the 12- to 16-week experimental exposure period, which represents one season of the crayfish's 3-4 year lifespan. This suggests that crayfish may be relatively tolerant of dietary exposure to sublethal concentrations of mercury within a single season. Further investigation of the physiological underpinnings of this tolerance is warranted.

Factors affecting MeHg bioaccumulation in stream biota: the role of dissolved organic carbon and diet.

The bioaccumulation of the neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) in freshwater ecosystems is thought to be mediated by both water chemistry (e.g., dissolved organic carbon [DOC] and dissolved mercury [Hg]) and diet (e.g., trophic position and diet composition). Hg in small streams is of particular interest given their role as a link between terrestrial and aquatic processes. Terrestrial processes determine the quantity and quality of streamwater DOC, which in turn influence the quantity and bioavailability of dissolved MeHg. To better understand the effects of water chemistry and diet on Hg bioaccumulation in stream biota, we measured DOC and dissolved Hg in stream water and mercury concentration in three benthic invertebrate taxa and three fish species across up to 12 tributary streams in a forested watershed in New Hampshire, USA. As expected, dissolved total mercury (THg) and MeHg concentrations increased linearly with DOC. However, mercury concentrations in fish and invertebrates varied non-linearly, with maximum bioaccumulation at intermediate DOC concentrations, which suggests that MeHg bioavailability may be reduced at high levels of DOC. Further, MeHg and THg concentrations in invertebrates and fish, respectively, increased with δ15N (suggesting trophic position) but were not associated with δ13C. These results show that even though MeHg in water is strongly determined by DOC concentrations, mercury bioaccumulation in stream food webs is the result of both MeHg availability in stream water and trophic position.

Dissolved organic carbon modulates mercury concentrations in insect subsidies from streams to terrestrial consumers.

Mercury (Hg) concentrations in aquatic environments have increased globally, exposing consumers of aquatic organisms to high Hg levels. For both aquatic and terrestrial consumers, exposure to Hg depends on their food sources as well as environmental factors influencing Hg bioavailability. The majority of the research on the transfer of methylmercury (MeHg), a toxic and bioaccumulating form of Hg, between aquatic and terrestrial food webs has focused on terrestrial piscivores. However, a gap exists in our understanding of the factors regulating MeHg bioaccumulation by non-piscivorous terrestrial predators, specifically consumers of adult aquatic insects. Because dissolved organic carbon (DOC) binds tightly to MeHg, affecting its transport and availability in aquatic food webs, we hypothesized that DOC affects MeHg transfer from stream food webs to terrestrial predators feeding on emerging adult insects. We tested this hypothesis by collecting data over 2 years from 10 low-order streams spanning a broad DOC gradient in the Lake Sunapee watershed in New Hampshire, USA. We found that streamwater MeHg concentration increased linearly with DOC concentration. However, streams with the highest DOC concentrations had emerging stream prey and spiders with lower MeHg concentrations than streams with intermediate DOC concentrations; a pattern that is similar to fish and larval aquatic insects. Furthermore, high MeHg concentrations found in spiders show that MeHg transfer in adult aquatic insects is an overlooked but potentially significant pathway of MeHg bioaccumulation in terrestrial food webs. Our results suggest that although MeHg in water increases with DOC, MeHg concentrations in stream and terrestrial consumers did not consistently increase with increases in streamwater MeHg concentrations. In fact, there was a change from a positive to a negative relationship between aqueous exposure and bioaccumulation at streamwater MeHg concentrations associated with DOC above ~5 mg/L. Thus, our study highlights the importance of stream DOC for MeHg dynamics beyond stream boundaries, and shows that factors modulating MeHg bioavailability in aquatic systems can affect the transfer of MeHg to terrestrial predators via aquatic subsidies.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

Autumn leaf subsidies influence spring dynamics of freshwater plankton communities.

While ecologists primarily focus on the immediate impact of ecological subsidies, understanding the importance of ecological subsidies requires quantifying the long-term temporal dynamics of subsidies on recipient ecosystems. Deciduous leaf litter transferred from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems exerts both immediate and lasting effects on stream food webs. Recently, deciduous leaf additions have also been shown to be important subsidies for planktonic food webs in ponds during autumn; however, the inter-seasonal effects of autumn leaf subsidies on planktonic food webs have not been studied. We hypothesized that autumn leaf drop will affect the spring dynamics of freshwater pond food webs by altering the availability of resources, water transparency, and the metabolic state of ponds. We created leaf-added and no-leaf-added field mesocosms in autumn 2012, allowed mesocosms to ice-over for the winter, and began sampling the physical, chemical, and biological properties of mesocosms immediately following ice-off in spring 2013. At ice-off, leaf additions reduced dissolved oxygen, elevated total phosphorus concentrations and dissolved materials, and did not alter temperature or total nitrogen. These initial abiotic effects contributed to higher bacterial densities and lower chlorophyll concentrations, but by the end of spring, the abiotic environment, chlorophyll and bacterial densities converged. By contrast, zooplankton densities diverged between treatments during the spring, with leaf additions stimulating copepods but inhibiting cladocerans. We hypothesized that these differences between zooplankton orders resulted from resource shifts following leaf additions. These results suggest that leaf subsidies can alter both the short- and long-term dynamics of planktonic food webs, and highlight the importance of fully understanding how ecological subsidies are integrated into recipient food webs.

Rice consumption contributes to arsenic exposure in US women.

Emerging data indicate that rice consumption may lead to potentially harmful arsenic exposure. However, few human data are available, and virtually none exist for vulnerable periods such as pregnancy. Here we document a positive association between rice consumption and urinary arsenic excretion, a biomarker of recent arsenic exposure, in 229 pregnant women. At a 6-mo prenatal visit, we collected a urine sample and 3-d dietary record for water, fish/seafood, and rice. We also tested women's home tap water for arsenic, which we combined with tap water consumption to estimate arsenic exposure through water. Women who reported rice intake (n = 73) consumed a median of 28.3 g/d, which is ∼0.5 cup of cooked rice each day. In general linear models adjusted for age and urinary dilution, both rice consumption (g, dry mass/d) and arsenic exposure through water (µg/d) were significantly associated with natural log-transformed total urinary arsenic (ßrice = 0.009, ßwater = 0.028, both P < 0.0001), as well as inorganic arsenic, monomethylarsonic acid, and dimethylarsinic acid (each P < 0.005). Based on total arsenic, consumption of 0.56 cup/d of cooked rice was comparable to drinking 1 L/d of 10 µg As/L water, the current US maximum contaminant limit. US rice consumption varies, averaging ∼0.5 cup/d, with Asian Americans consuming an average of >2 cups/d. Rice arsenic content and speciation also vary, with some strains predominated by dimethylarsinic acid, particularly those grown in the United States. Our findings along with others indicate that rice consumption should be considered when designing arsenic reduction strategies in the United States.

Urinary biomarkers of exposure to toxic and essential elements: A comparison of infants fed with human milk or formula.

Background: Early-life exposure to nonessential (toxic) and essential trace elements can influence child development. Although infant formula powders and the water used to reconstitute them can contain higher concentrations of many elements compared with human milk, the influence of feeding mode on reliable biomarkers of infant exposure has rarely been demonstrated. Methods: We evaluated associations between urinary biomarkers and feeding mode (exclusively human milk, exclusively formula, or combination-fed) for four toxic (arsenic, cadmium, nickel, and uranium) and three essential elements (cobalt, molybdenum, and selenium) using general linear models. Results: A total of 462 participants from the rural New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study were on average 6 weeks old between July 2012 and March 2019 and had urine samples, 3-day food diaries, and relevant covariate data available. In adjusted models, urinary arsenic was 5.15 (95% confidence interval = 4.04, 6.58), molybdenum was 19.02 (14.13-25.59), and selenium was 1.51 (1.35-1.68) times higher in infants fed exclusively with formula compared with infants fed exclusively with human milk. By contrast, urinary uranium was 0.59 (0.46-0.75) and cobalt was 0.78 (0.65-0.95) times lower with formula feeding than human milk feeding. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that infant exposure to several potentially toxic elements varies by feeding mode, as concentrations of reliable urinary biomarkers were higher with formula or human milk, depending on the element. Importantly, exposure to arsenic increased with household tap water arsenic regardless of feeding mode, suggesting that all infants could be at risk in populations with high concentrations of arsenic in drinking water.

Diet and toenail arsenic concentrations in a New Hampshire population with arsenic-containing water.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on the contribution of dietary sources of arsenic to an individual's total exposure, particularly in populations with exposure via drinking water. Here, the association between diet and toenail arsenic concentrations (a long-term biomarker of exposure) was evaluated for individuals with measured household tap water arsenic. Foods known to be high in arsenic, including rice and seafood, were of particular interest. METHODS: Associations between toenail arsenic and consumption of 120 individual diet items were quantified using general linear models that also accounted for household tap water arsenic and potentially confounding factors (e.g., age, caloric intake, sex, smoking) (n = 852). As part of the analysis, we assessed whether associations between log-transformed toenail arsenic and each diet item differed between subjects with household drinking water arsenic concentrations <1 µg/L versus ≥1 µg/L. RESULTS: As expected, toenail arsenic concentrations increased with household water arsenic concentrations. Among the foods known to be high in arsenic, no clear relationship between toenail arsenic and rice consumption was detected, but there was a positive association with consumption of dark meat fish, a category that includes tuna steaks, mackerel, salmon, sardines, bluefish, and swordfish. Positive associations between toenail arsenic and consumption of white wine, beer, and Brussels sprouts were also observed; these and most other associations were not modified by exposure via water. However, consumption of two foods cooked in water, beans/lentils and cooked oatmeal, was more strongly related to toenail arsenic among those with arsenic-containing drinking water (≥1 µg/L). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that diet can be an important contributor to total arsenic exposure in U.S. populations regardless of arsenic concentrations in drinking water. Thus, dietary exposure to arsenic in the US warrants consideration as a potential health risk.

Dietary Exposure to Essential and Non-essential Elements During Infants' First Year of Life in the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study.

Even the low levels of non-essential elements exposure common in the US may have health consequences especially early in life. However, little is known about the infant's dynamic exposure to essential and non-essential elements. This study aims to evaluate exposure to essential and non-essential elements during infants' first year of life and to explore the association between the exposure and rice consumption. Paired urine samples from infants enrolled in the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study (NHBCS) were collected at approximately 6 weeks (exclusively breastfed) and at 1 year of age after weaning (n = 187). A further independent subgroup of NHBCS infants with details about rice consumption at 1 year of age also was included (n = 147). Urinary concentrations of 8 essential (Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, and Se) and 9 non-essential (Al, As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb, Sn, V, and U) elements were determined as a measure of exposure. Several essential (Co, Fe, Mo, Ni, and Se) and non-essential (Al, As, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb, Sn, and V) elements had higher concentrations at 1 year than at 6 weeks of age. The highest increases were for urinary As and Mo with median concentrations of 0.20 and 1.02 µg/L at 6 weeks and 2.31 and 45.36 µg/L at 1 year of age, respectively. At 1 year of age, As and Mo urine concentrations were related to rice consumption. Further efforts are necessary to minimize exposure to non-essential elements while retaining essential elements to protect and promote children's health. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12403-022-00489-x.

Thermal sensitivity predicts the establishment success of nonnative species in a mesocosm warming experiment.

While climate change is likely to modify biological interactions between species, it is not clear how altered biotic interactions will influence specific processes such as community assembly. We show that small increases in water temperature can alter the establishment success of the nonnative, tropical zooplankton species, Daphnia lumholtzi, and suggest a general framework for understanding species establishment in the context of climate change. We compared the establishment success of D. lumholtzi and the native congener D. pulex in a mesocosm experiment manipulating temperature, food conditions, and the identity of the resident vs. establishing species. To understand if our mesocosm results could have been predicted by thermal physiology, we characterized the thermal sensitivity of each species' population growth rate and estimated the temperatures at which each species would outperform the other. As predicted by the thermal sensitivities, invading D. lumholtzi were able to establish regardless of temperature and food resources, and established more rapidly in heated mesocosms. Invading D. pulex reached higher initial abundances in ambient-temperature mesocosms but failed to establish in any heated mesocosms. These findings suggest that thermal sensitivity may predict how altered interactions between species can influence community assembly, and that higher lake temperatures will likely aid the future establishment of nonnative D. lumholtzi in North America.

Arsenic concentration and speciation in infant formulas and first foods.

Arsenic exposure to humans is pervasive, and, increasingly, studies are revealing adverse health effects at ever lower doses. Drinking water is the main route of exposure for many individuals; however, food can be a significant source of arsenic to an individual, especially if their diet is rice-based. Infants are particularly susceptible to dietary exposure, since many first foods contain rice and they have a low body mass. Here we report on arsenic concentration and speciation in infant formulas and first foods. Speciation is essential for food analysis because of the much greater toxicity of inorganic arsenic species and the possibility that arsenic in food (unlike water) may be present in either inorganic or organic forms. Infant milk formulas were low in total arsenic (2.2-12.6 ng g(-1), n=15). Non-dairy formulas were significantly higher in arsenic than dairy-based formulas. Arsenic in formula was almost exclusively inorganic and predominantly arsenic(V). Arsenic concentration in purees (n=41) and stage 3 foods (n=18) ranged from 0.3-22 ng g(-1). Rice-fortified foods had significantly higher total arsenic concentrations than non rice-based foods. Again arsenic speciation was predominantly inorganic; arsenic(III) was the main species with lower concentrations of DMA and arsenic(V) also present. These data confirm that infants are exposed to arsenic via diet, and suggest that careful attention to diet choices may limit this.

Associations between toenail arsenic concentration and dietary factors in a New Hampshire population.

BACKGROUND: Dietary factors such as folate, vitamin B12, protein, and methionine are important for the excretion of arsenic via one-carbon metabolism in undernourished populations exposed to high levels of arsenic via drinking water. However, the effects of dietary factors on toenail arsenic concentrations in well-nourished populations exposed to relatively low levels of water arsenic are unknown. METHODS: As part of a population-based case-control study of skin and bladder cancer from the USA, we evaluated relationships between consumption of dietary factors and arsenic concentrations in toenail clippings. Consumption of each dietary factor was determined from a validated food frequency questionnaire. We used general linear models to examine the associations between toenail arsenic and each dietary factor, taking into account potentially confounding effects. RESULTS: As expected, we found an inverse association between ln-transformed toenail arsenic and consumption of vitamin B12 (excluding supplements) and animal protein. Unexpectedly, there were also inverse associations with numerous dietary lipids (e.g., total fat, total animal fat, total vegetable fat, total monounsaturated fat, total polyunsaturated fat, and total saturated fat). Finally, increased toenail arsenic concentrations were associated with increased consumption of long chain n-3 fatty acids. CONCLUSION: In a relatively well-nourished population exposed to relatively low levels of arsenic via water, consumption of certain dietary lipids may decrease toenail arsenic concentration, while long chain n-3 fatty acids may increase toenail arsenic concentration, possibly due to their association with arsenolipids in fish tissue.

Infant infections, respiratory symptoms, and allergy in relation to timing of rice cereal introduction in a United States cohort.

Rice products marketed in the USA, including baby rice cereal, contain inorganic arsenic, a putative immunotoxin. We sought to determine whether the timing of introduction of rice cereal in the first year of life influences occurrence of infections, respiratory symptoms, and allergy. Among 572 infants from the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study, we used generalized estimating equation, adjusted for maternal smoking during pregnancy, marital status, education attainment, pre-pregnancy body mass index, maternal age at enrollment, infant birth weight, and breastfeeding history. Among 572 infants, each month earlier of introduction to rice cereal was associated with increased risks of subsequent upper respiratory tract infections (relative risk, RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00-1.09); lower respiratory tract infections (RR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.02-1.39); acute respiratory symptoms including wheeze, difficulty breathing, and cough (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.22); fever requiring a prescription medicine (RR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.02-1.45) and allergy diagnosed by a physician (RR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.06-1.36). No clear associations were observed with gastrointestinal symptoms. Our findings suggest that introduction of rice cereal earlier may influence infants' susceptibility to respiratory infections and allergy.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales.

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale-specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non-stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long-term drivers and may miss the importance of short-term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

Species relationships in the extremes and their influence on community stability.

Synchrony among population fluctuations of multiple coexisting species has a major impact on community stability, i.e. on the relative temporal constancy of aggregate properties such as total community biomass. However, synchrony and its impacts are usually measured using covariance methods, which do not account for whether species abundances may be more correlated when species are relatively common than when they are scarce, or vice versa. Recent work showed that species commonly exhibit such 'asymmetric tail associations'. We here consider the influence of asymmetric tail associations on community stability. We develop a 'skewness ratio' which quantifies how much species relationships and tail associations modify stability. The skewness ratio complements the classic variance ratio and related metrics. Using multi-decadal grassland datasets, we show that accounting for tail associations gives new viewpoints on synchrony and stability; e.g. species associations can alter community stability differentially for community crashes or explosions to high values, a fact not previously detectable. Species associations can mitigate explosions of community abundance to high values, increasing one aspect of stability, while simultaneously exacerbating crashes to low values, decreasing another aspect of stability; or vice versa. Our work initiates a new, more flexible paradigm for exploring species relationships and community stability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Synchrony and rhythm interaction: from the brain to behavioural ecology'.

The spatial synchrony of species richness and its relationship to ecosystem stability.

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.