The frontier of simulation-based inference.

Many domains of science have developed complex simulations to describe phenomena of interest. While these simulations provide high-fidelity models, they are poorly suited for inference and lead to challenging inverse problems. We review the rapidly developing field of simulation-based inference and identify the forces giving additional momentum to the field. Finally, we describe how the frontier is expanding so that a broad audience can appreciate the profound influence these developments may have on science.

Mining gold from implicit models to improve likelihood-free inference.

Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena. However, the probability density that they implicitly define is often intractable, leading to challenging inverse problems for inference. Recently, a number of techniques have been introduced in which a surrogate for the intractable density is learned, including normalizing flows and density ratio estimators. We show that additional information that characterizes the latent process can often be extracted from simulators and used to augment the training data for these surrogate models. We introduce several loss functions that leverage these augmented data and demonstrate that these techniques can improve sample efficiency and quality of inference.

Deep Search for Decaying Dark Matter with XMM-Newton Blank-Sky Observations.

Sterile neutrinos with masses in the keV range are well-motivated extensions to the Standard Model that could explain the observed neutrino masses while also making up the dark matter (DM) of the universe. If sterile neutrinos are DM then they may slowly decay into active neutrinos and photons, giving rise to the possibility of their detection through narrow spectral features in astrophysical x-ray data sets. In this Letter, we perform the most sensitive search to date for this and other decaying DM scenarios across the mass range from 5 to 16 keV using archival XMM-Newton data. We reduce 547 Ms of data from both the MOS and PN instruments using observations taken across the full sky and then use this data to search for evidence of DM decay in the ambient halo of the Milky Way. We determine the instrumental and astrophysical baselines with data taken far away from the Galactic Center, and use Gaussian process modeling to capture additional continuum background contributions. No evidence is found for unassociated x-ray lines, leading us to produce the strongest constraints to date on decaying DM in this mass range.

Equivariant Flow-Based Sampling for Lattice Gauge Theory.

We define a class of machine-learned flow-based sampling algorithms for lattice gauge theories that are gauge invariant by construction. We demonstrate the application of this framework to U(1) gauge theory in two spacetime dimensions, and find that, at small bare coupling, the approach is orders of magnitude more efficient at sampling topological quantities than more traditional sampling procedures such as hybrid Monte Carlo and heat bath.

Constraining Effective Field Theories with Machine Learning.

We present powerful new analysis techniques to constrain effective field theories at the LHC. By leveraging the structure of particle physics processes, we extract extra information from Monte Carlo simulations, which can be used to train neural network models that estimate the likelihood ratio. These methods scale well to processes with many observables and theory parameters, do not require any approximations of the parton shower or detector response, and can be evaluated in microseconds. We show that they allow us to put significantly stronger bounds on dimension-six operators than existing methods, demonstrating their potential to improve the precision of the LHC legacy constraints.