Outcomes Following Intact and Ruptured Aneurysm Repair across Nations: Analysis of International Registry Data from the VASCUNET Collaboration 2014 - 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the peri-operative mortality rate for intact and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair in 10 countries and to compare practice and outcomes over a six year period by age, sex, and geographic location. METHODS: This VASCUNET study used prospectively collected data from vascular registries in 10 countries on primary repair of intact and ruptured AAAs undertaken between January 2014 and December 2019. The primary outcome was peri-operative death (30 day or in hospital). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between peri-operative death, patient characteristics, and type of procedure. Factors associated with the use of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) were also evaluated. RESULTS: The analysis included 50 642 intact and 9 453 ruptured AAA repairs. The proportion of EVARs for intact repairs increased from 63.4% in 2014 to 67.3% in 2016 before falling to 62.3% in 2019 (p < .001), but practice varied between countries. EVAR procedures were more common among older patients (p < .001) and men (p < .001). Overall peri-operative mortality after intact AAA repair was 1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3 - 1.5%) and did not change over time. Mortality rates were stable within countries. Among ruptured AAA repairs, the proportion of EVARs increased from 23.7% in 2014 to 35.2% in 2019 (p < .001). The average aortic diameter was 7.8 cm for men and 7.0 cm for women (p < .001). The overall peri-operative mortality rate was 31.3% (95% CI 30.4 - 32.2%); the rates were 36.0% (95% CI 34.9 - 37.2%) for open repair and 19.7% (95% CI 18.2 - 21.3%) for EVAR. This difference and shift to EVAR reduced peri-operative mortality from 32.6% (in 2014) to 28.7% (in 2019). CONCLUSION: The international practice of intact AAA repair was associated with low mortality rates in registry reported data. There remains variation in the use of EVAR for intact AAAs across countries. Overall peri-operative mortality remains high after ruptured AAA, but an increased use of EVAR has reduced rates over time.

The AUGIS Survival Predictor: Prediction of Long-Term and Conditional Survival After Esophagectomy Using Random Survival Forests.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for overall survival after esophagectomy using pre/postoperative clinical data and machine learning. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: For patients with esophageal cancer, accurately predicting long-term survival after esophagectomy is challenging. This study investigated survival prediction after esophagectomy using a RandomSurvival Forest (RSF) model derived from routine data from a large, well-curated, national dataset. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma between 2012 and 2018 in England and Wales who underwent an esophagectomy were included. Prediction models for overall survival were developed using the RSF method and Cox regression from 41 patient and disease characteristics. Calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the curve) were validated internally using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: The study analyzed 6399 patients, with 2625 deaths during follow-up. Median follow-up was 41 months. Overall survival was 47.1% at 5 years. The final RSF model included 14 variables and had excellent discrimination with a 5-year time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve of 83.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6%-84.9%], compared to 82.3% (95% CI 81.1%-83.3%) for the Cox model. The most important variables were lymph node involvement, pT stage, circumferential resection margin involvement (tumor at < 1 mm from cut edge) and age. There was a wide range of survival estimates even within TNM staging groups, with quintiles of prediction within Stage 3b ranging from 12.2% to 44.7% survival at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: An RSF model for long-term survival after esophagectomy exhibited excellent discrimination and well-calibrated predictions. At a patient level, it provides more accuracy than TNM staging alone and could help in the delivery of tailored treatment and follow-up.

Diagnosis and treatment for gastro-oesophageal cancer in England and Wales: analysis of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) database 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: The National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA) captures patient data from diagnosis to end of primary treatment for all patients with oesophagogastric (OG) cancer in England and Wales. This study assessed changes in patient characteristics, treatments received, and outcomes for OG cancer surgery for the period 2012-2020, and examined which factors may have led to changes in clinical outcomes over this time. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with OG cancer between April 2012 and March 2020 were included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient demographics, disease site, type, and stage, patterns of care, and outcomes over time. The treatment variables of unit case volume, surgical approach, and neoadjuvant therapy were included. Regression models were used to examine associations between surgical outcomes (duration of stay and mortality), and patient and treatment variables. RESULTS: In total, 83 393 patients diagnosed with OG cancer during the study period were included. Patient demographics and cancer stage at diagnosis showed little change over time. Altogether, 17 650 patients underwent surgery as part of radical treatment. These patients had increasingly more advanced cancers, and a greater likelihood of pre-existing comorbidity in more recent years. Significant decreases in mortality rates and duration of stay were noted, along with improvements in oncological outcomes (nodal yields and margin positivity rates). Following adjustment for patient and treatment variables, increasing audit year and trust volume were associated, respectively, with improved postoperative outcomes: lower 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.93 (95 per cent c.i. 0.88 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99-0.99)) and lower 90-day mortality (OR 0.94 (95 per cent c.i. 0.91 to 0.98) and OR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99-0.99)), and a reduction in duration of postoperative stay (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.98 (95 per cent c.i. 0.97 to 0.98) and IRR 0.99 (95 per cent c.i. 0.99 to 0.99)). CONCLUSION: Outcomes of OG cancer surgery have improved over time, despite little evidence of improvements in early diagnosis. The underlying drivers for improvements in outcome are multifactorial.

Outcomes after minor lower limb amputation for peripheral arterial disease and diabetes: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetes and peripheral arterial disease are at increased risk of minor amputation. The aim of study was to assess the rate of re-amputations and death after an initial minor amputation, and to identify associated risk factors. METHODS: Data on all patients aged 40 years and over with diabetes and/or peripheral arterial disease, who underwent minor amputation between January 2014 and December 2018, were extracted from Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients who had bilateral index procedures or an amputation in the 3 years before the study were excluded. Primary outcomes were ipsilateral major amputation and death after the index minor amputation. Secondary outcomes were ipsilateral minor re-amputations, and contralateral minor and major amputations. RESULTS: In this study of 22 118 patients, 16 808 (76.0 per cent) were men and 18 473 (83.5 per cent) had diabetes. At 1 year after minor amputation, the estimated ipsilateral major amputation rate was 10.7 (95 per cent c.i. 10.3 to 11.1) per cent. Factors associated with a higher risk of ipsilateral major amputation included male sex, severe frailty, diagnosis of gangrene, emergency admission, foot amputation (compared with toe amputation), and previous or concurrent revascularization. The estimated mortality rate was 17.2 (16.7 to 17.7) per cent at 1 year and 49.4 (48.6 to 50.1) per cent at 5 years after minor amputation. Older age, severe frailty, comorbidity, gangrene, and emergency admission were associated with a significantly higher mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Minor amputations were associated with a high risk of major amputation and death. One in 10 patients had an ipsilateral major amputation within the first year after minor amputation and half had died by 5 years.

The Impact of Pre-Operative Anaemia on One Year Amputation Free Survival and Re-Admissions in Patients Undergoing Vascular Surgery for Peripheral Arterial Disease: a National Vascular Registry Study.

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia is common among patients undergoing surgery, but its association with post-operative outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unclear. The aim of this observational population based study was to examine the association between pre-operative anaemia and one year outcomes after surgical revascularisation for PAD. METHODS: This study used data from the National Vascular Registry, linked with an administrative database (Hospital Episode Statistics), to identify patients who underwent open surgical lower limb revascularisation for PAD in English NHS hospitals between January 2016 and December 2019. The primary outcome was one year amputation free survival. Secondary outcomes were one year re-admission rate, 30 day re-intervention rate, 30 day ipsilateral major amputation rate and 30 day death. Flexible parametric survival analysis and generalised linear regression were performed to assess the effect of anaemia on one year outcomes. RESULTS: The analysis included 13 641 patients, 57.9% of whom had no anaemia, 23.8% mild, and 18.3% moderate or severe anaemia. At one year follow up, 80.6% of patients were alive and amputation free. The risk of one year amputation or death was elevated in patients with mild anaemia (adjusted HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.15 - 1.41) and moderate or severe anaemia (aHR 1.5; 1.33 - 1.67). Patients with moderate or severe anaemia experienced more re-admissions over one year (adjusted IRR 1.31; 1.26 - 1.37) and had higher odds of 30 day re-interventions (aOR 1.22; 1.04 - 1.45), 30 day ipsilateral major amputation (aOR 1.53; 1.17 - 2.01), and 30 day death (aOR 1.39; 1.03 - 1.88) compared with patients with no anaemia. CONCLUSION: Pre-operative anaemia is associated with lower one year amputation free survival and higher one year re-admission rates following surgical revascularisation in patients with PAD. Research is required to evaluate whether interventions to correct anaemia improve outcomes after lower limb revascularisation.

Editor's Choice - Outcomes of Surgery for Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom: A Population Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: There is limited information on changes in the patterns of care and outcomes for patients who had vascular procedures after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this population based study was to examine the patterns of care and outcomes for vascular lower limb procedures in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Lower limb revascularisations and major amputations performed from January 2019 to April 2021 in the UK and entered in the National Vascular Registry were included in the study. The primary outcome was in hospital post-operative death and secondary outcomes were complications and re-interventions. The study was divided into Pre-pandemic (1 January 2019 - 29 February 2020), Wave 1 (1 March - 30 June 2020), Respite (1 July - 31 October 2020), Wave 2/3 (1 November 2020 - 30 April 2021). RESULTS: The study included 36 938 procedures (7 245 major amputations, 16 712 endovascular, 12 981 open revascularisations), with 15 501 procedures after March 2020, a 27.7% reduction compared with pre-pandemic. The proportion of open surgical procedures performed under general anaesthetic was lower in Wave 1 and after compared with pre-pandemic (76.7% vs. 81.9%, p < .001). Only 4.6% of patients in the cohort had SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 708), but their in hospital post-operative mortality rate was 25.0% (n = 177), six times higher than patients without SARS-CoV-2 (adjusted odds ratio 5.88; 95% CI 4.80 - 7.21, p < .001). The in hospital mortality rate was higher during the pandemic than pre-pandemic after elective open and endovascular revascularisation (respectively 1.6% vs. 1.1%, p = .033, and 0.9% vs. 0.5%, p = .005) and after major amputations (10.4% during Wave 2/3 vs. 7.7% pre-pandemic, p = .022). CONCLUSION: There was excess post-operative mortality rate for patients undergoing lower limb vascular procedures during the pandemic, which was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further research should be conducted on long term outcomes of patients operated on during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Long-term disease interactions amongst surgical patients: a population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The average age of the surgical population continues to increase, as does prevalence of long-term diseases. However, outcomes amongst multi-morbid surgical patients are not well described. METHODS: We included adults undergoing non-obstetric surgical procedures in the English National Health Service between January 2010 and December 2015. Patients could be included multiple times in sequential 90-day procedure spells. Multi-morbidity was defined as presence of two or more long-term diseases identified using a modified Charlson comorbidity index. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative death. Secondary outcomes included emergency hospital readmission within 90 days. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression. We compared the outcomes associated with different disease combinations. RESULTS: We identified 20 193 659 procedure spells among 13 062 715 individuals aged 57 (standard deviation 19) yr. Multi-morbidity was present among 2 577 049 (12.8%) spells with 195 965 deaths (7.6%), compared with 17 616 610 (88.2%) spells without multi-morbidity with 163 529 deaths (0.9%). Multi-morbidity was present in 1 902 859/16 946 808 (11.2%) elective spells, with 57 663 deaths (2.7%, OR 4.9 [95% CI: 4.9-4.9]), and 674 190/3 246 851 (20.7%) non-elective spells, with 138 302 deaths (20.5%, OR 3.0 [95% CI: 3.0-3.1]). Emergency readmission followed 547 399 (22.0%) spells with multi-morbidity compared with 1 255 526 (7.2%) without. Multi-morbid patients accounted for 57 663/114 783 (50.2%) deaths after elective spells, and 138 302/244 711 (56.5%) after non-elective spells. The rate of death varied five-fold from lowest to highest risk disease pairs. CONCLUSION: One in eight patients undergoing surgery have multi-morbidity, accounting for more than half of all postoperative deaths. Disease interactions amongst multi-morbid patients is an important determinant of patient outcome.

Benchmarking short-term postoperative mortality across neurosurgery units: is hospital administrative data good enough for risk-adjustment?

BACKGROUND: Surgical mortality indicators should be risk-adjusted when evaluating the performance of organisations. This study evaluated the performance of risk-adjustment models that used English hospital administrative data for 30-day mortality after neurosurgery. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2018. Organisational-level 30-day mortality was calculated for selected subspecialties (neuro-oncology, neurovascular and trauma neurosurgery) and the overall cohort. Risk adjustment models were developed using multivariable logistic regression and incorporated various patient variables: age, sex, admission method, social deprivation, comorbidity and frailty indices. Performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: The cohort included 49,044 patients. Overall, 30-day mortality rate was 4.9%, with unadjusted organisational rates ranging from 3.2 to 9.3%. The variables in the best performing models varied for the subspecialties; for trauma neurosurgery, a model that included deprivation and frailty had the best calibration, while for neuro-oncology a model with these variables plus comorbidity performed best. For neurovascular surgery, a simple model of age, sex and admission method performed best. Levels of discrimination varied for the subspecialties (range: 0.583 for trauma and 0.740 for neurovascular). The models were generally well calibrated. Application of the models to the organisation figures produced an average (median) absolute change in mortality of 0.33% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.15-0.72) for the overall cohort model. Median changes for the subspecialty models were 0.29% (neuro-oncology, IQR 0.15-0.42), 0.40% (neurovascular, IQR 0.24-0.78) and 0.49% (trauma neurosurgery, IQR 0.23-1.68). CONCLUSIONS: Reasonable risk-adjustment models for 30-day mortality after neurosurgery procedures were possible using variables from HES, although the models for trauma neurosurgery performed less well. Including a measure of frailty often improved model performance.

Assessing national patterns and outcomes of pituitary surgery: is hospital administrative data good enough?

PURPOSE: Patterns of surgical care, outcomes, and quality of care can be assessed using hospital administrative databases but this requires accurate and complete data. The aim of this study was to explore whether the quality of hospital administrative data was sufficient to assess pituitary surgery practice in England. METHODS: The study analysed Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from April 2013 to March 2018 on all adult patients undergoing pituitary surgery in England. A series of data quality indicators examined the attribution of cases to consultants, the coding of sellar and parasellar lesions, associated endocrine and visual disorders, and surgical procedures. Differences in data quality over time and between neurosurgical units were examined. RESULTS: A total of 5613 records describing pituitary procedures were identified. Overall, 97.3% had a diagnostic code for the tumour or lesion treated, with 29.7% (n = 1669) and 17.8% (n = 1000) describing endocrine and visual disorders, respectively. There was a significant reduction from the first to the fifth year in records that only contained a pituitary tumour code (63.7%-47.0%, p < .001). The use of procedure codes that attracted the highest tariff increased over time (66.4%-82.4%, p < .001). Patterns of coding varied widely between the 24 neurosurgical units. CONCLUSION: The quality of HES data on pituitary surgery has improved over time but there is wide variation in the quality of data between neurosurgical units. Research studies and quality improvement programmes using these data need to check it is of sufficient quality to not invalidate their results.

Delays to revascularization for patients with chronic limb-threatening ischaemia.

BACKGROUND: Vascular services in England are organized into regional hub-and-spoke models, with hubs performing arterial surgery. This study examined time to revascularization for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) within and across different care pathways, and its association with postrevascularization outcomes. METHODS: Three inpatient and four outpatient care pathways were identified for patients with CLTI undergoing revascularization between April 2015 and March 2019 using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Differences in times from presentation to revascularization across care pathways were analysed using Cox regression. The relationship between postoperative outcomes and time to revascularization was evaluated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 16 483 patients with CLTI, 9470 had pathways starting with admission to a hub or spoke hospital, whereas 7013 (42.5 per cent) were first seen at outpatient visits. Among the inpatient pathways, patients admitted to arterial hubs had shorter times to revascularization than those admitted to spoke hospitals (median 5 (i.q.r. 2-10) versus 12 (7-19) days; P < 0.001). Shorter times to revascularization were also observed for patients presenting to outpatient clinics at arterial hubs compared with spoke hospitals (13 (6-25) versus 26 (15-35) days; P < 0.001). Within most care pathways, longer delays to revascularizsation were associated with increased risks of postoperative major amputation and in-hospital death, but the effect of delay differed across pathways. CONCLUSION: For patients with CLTI, time to revascularization was influenced by presentation to an arterial hub or spoke hospital. Generally, longer delays to revascularization were associated with worse outcomes, but the impact of delay differed across pathways.

Impact of postoperative chemotherapy on survival for oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma after preoperative chemotherapy and surgery.

BACKGROUND: Perioperative chemotherapy is widely used in the treatment of oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (OGAC) with a substantial survival benefit over surgery alone. However, the postoperative part of these regimens is given in less than half of patients, reflecting uncertainty among clinicians about its benefit and poor postoperative patient fitness. This study estimated the effect of postoperative chemotherapy after surgery for OGAC using a large population-based data set. METHODS: Patients with adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, gastro-oesophageal junction or stomach diagnosed between 2012 and 2018, who underwent preoperative chemotherapy followed by surgery, were identified from a national-level audit in England and Wales. Postoperative therapy was defined as the receipt of systemic chemotherapy within 90 days of surgery. The effectiveness of postoperative chemotherapy compared with observation was estimated using inverse propensity treatment weighting. RESULTS: Postoperative chemotherapy was given to 1593 of 4139 patients (38.5 per cent) included in the study. Almost all patients received platinum-based triplet regimens (4004 patients, 96.7 per cent), with FLOT used in 3.3 per cent. Patients who received postoperative chemotherapy were younger, with a lower ASA grade, and were less likely to have surgical complications, with similar tumour characteristics. After weighting, the median survival time after postoperative chemotherapy was 62.7 months compared with 50.4 months without chemotherapy (hazard ratio 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.77 to 0.94; P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study has shown that postoperative chemotherapy improves overall survival in patients with OGAC treated with preoperative chemotherapy and surgery.

Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS.

BACKGROUND: Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes. METHODS: Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged ≥18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death ≥2 and report associated 2-yr survival. RESULTS: We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without. CONCLUSION: One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).

Carotid Endarterectomy Following Intravenous Thrombolysis in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of pre-operative intravenous thrombolytic therapy (ivTT) on short term outcomes after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) among patients who presented with ischaemic stroke. METHODS: A retrospective study using a large population based dataset from the National Vascular Registry in the United Kingdom (UK-NVR). The cohort included adult patients who underwent CEA for ischaemic stroke between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2019. NVR records provided information on patient demographics, Rankin score, medication, time from onset of symptoms to surgery and whether the patient received ivTT prior to surgery. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between ivTT and rates of any stroke at 30 days after CEA and in hospital complication rates for neck haematoma. Secondary outcomes included in hospital cardiac and respiratory complications, and cranial nerve injury. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2019, 9 030 patients presented with a stroke and underwent CEA, of whom 1 055 (11.7%) had received pre-operative ivTT. Those receiving ivTT were younger (mean 70.6 vs. 72.0 years, p < .001). The median (IQR) time from symptom to CEA was 10 days (6 - 17) for ivTT patients and 11 days (7 - 20) for CEA patients not receiving ivTT. Post-operative rates of 30 day stroke were similar between the no ivTT (2.1%) and ivTT (1.8%) cohorts (p = .48). In hospital neck haematomas were statistically significantly more common in CEA patients receiving ivTT (3.7%) vs. no ivTT (2.3%) (p = .006). There was no statistically significant association between 30 day stroke and neck haematoma complications when stratified for delays from symptom onset to CEA, but the overall cohort contained few adverse events for analysis during the very early time period. CONCLUSION: The use of ivTT before CEA in stroke patients was not associated with an increased risk of 30 day stroke, but there was an increase in the risk of neck haematoma.

Editor's Choice - Variation in Intact Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Outcomes by Country: Analysis of International Consortium of Vascular Registries 2010 - 2016.

OBJECTIVE: Outcomes for intact abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair vary over time and by healthcare system, country, and surgeon. The aim of this study was to analyse peri-operative mortality for intact AAA repair in 11 countries over time and compare outcomes by gender, age, and geographical location. METHODS: Prospective data on primary repair of intact AAA were collected from 11 countries through the International Consortium of Vascular Registries (ICVR) and analysed for two time periods, 2010 - 2013 and 2014 - 2016. The primary outcome was peri-operative mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) and open surgical repair (OSR). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to adjust for differences in patient characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 103 715 patients were included. The percentage of patients undergoing EVAR increased from 63.6% to 71.2% (p < .001) over the study period. This proportion varied by country from 35% in Hungary to 81% in the United States. Overall peri-operative mortality decreased from 2.1% to 1.6 % (p < .001). Mortality also declined significantly over time for both OSR 4.2% to 3.6 % (p = .002) and EVAR 1.0% to 0.7% (p = .002). Mortality was significantly higher for female than male patients (3.0% vs. 1.6% p < .001). The percentage of patients > 80 years old undergoing AAA repair remained constant at 23.6% (p = .91). Peri-operative mortality was higher for patients > 80 years than for those < 80 years old (2.7% vs. 1.6% p < .001). Forty-six per cent (n = 275) of all EVAR deaths occurred in the over 80s. CONCLUSION: The proportion of AAA repairs performed using EVAR has increased over time. Peri-operative mortality continues to decline for both OSR and EVAR. Outcomes however were significantly worse for both women and those aged over 80, so efforts should be focused on these patient groups to further reduce elective AAA mortality rates.

Patients' satisfaction with the reconstructive options provided to them measured 18 months after mastectomy surgery for breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Mastectomy patients' satisfaction with reconstructive options has not been examined. METHODS: A national study measured 18-month satisfaction with reconstructive options and collected case-mix and reconstructive offer and uptake data on breast cancer patients having mastectomy with or without immediate reconstruction (IR) in England between January 2008 and March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression examined the relationship between satisfaction, age, IR offer and uptake, and clinical suitability. RESULTS: Of 4796 patients, 1889 were not offered IR, 1489 declined an offer and 1418 underwent it. Women not offered IR were more likely older, obese or smokers and had higher ASA grades, ECOG scores, tumour burdens and adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy likelihoods (9% of lowest suitability group offered IR; 81% in highest suitability group). 83.7% were satisfied with their reconstructive options, varying significantly by IR offer and uptake (76.1% for those not offered IR; 85.8% for those who declined IR; 91.7% following IR). Older women and women deemed more suitable for IR were more often satisfied (p-values <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction varied by offer and uptake status, age and suitability score. Clinicians should target equity for women deemed unsuitable by exploring their needs and desired outcomes, standardising operative fitness assessments and utilising shared decision-making aids.

Improving 1-Year Outcomes of Infrainguinal Limb Revascularization: Population-Based Cohort Study of 104 000 Patients in England.

BACKGROUND: The availability and diversity of lower limb revascularization procedures have increased in England in the past decade. We investigated whether these developments in care have translated to improvements in patient pathways and outcomes. METHODS: Individual-patient records from Hospital Episode Statistics were used to identify 103 934 patients who underwent endovascular (angioplasty) or surgical (endarterectomy, profundaplasty, or bypass) lower limb revascularization for infrainguinal peripheral artery disease in England between January 2006 and December 2015. Major lower limb amputations and deaths within 1 year after revascularization were ascertained from Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality records. Competing risks regression was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of major amputation and death, adjusted for patient age, sex, comorbidity score, indication for the intervention (intermittent claudication, severe limb ischemia without record of tissue loss, severe limb ischemia with a record of ulceration, severe limb ischemia with a record of gangrene/osteomyelitis), and comorbid diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: The estimated 1-year risk of major amputation decreased from 5.7% (in 2006-2007) to 3.9% (in 2014-2015) following endovascular revascularization, and from 11.2% (2006-2007) to 6.6% (2014-2015) following surgical procedures. The risk of death after both types of revascularization also decreased. These trends were observed for all indication categories, with the largest reductions found in patients with severe limb ischemia with ulceration or gangrene. Overall, morbidity increased over the study period, and a larger proportion of patients was treated for the severe end of the peripheral artery disease spectrum using less invasive procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that from 2006 to 2015, the overall survival increased and the risk of major lower limb amputation decreased following revascularization. These observations suggest that patient outcomes after lower limb revascularization have improved during a period of centralization and specialization of vascular services in the United Kingdom.

Changing Patterns of Carotid Endarterectomy Between 2011 and 2017 in England.

Background and Purpose- Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) reduces the risk of stroke in recently symptomatic patients and less so in asymptomatic patients. Recent evidence suggests that the number of CEAs may be declining. The aim of this study was to investigate annual patterns of CEA in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients in England from 2011 to 2017. Methods- Data from the National Vascular Registry were used to describe (1) the number of CEA procedures in England and its 9 geographic regions from 2011 to 2017, (2) the characteristics of patients undergoing CEA, and (3) whether rates of CEA correlated with the number of vascular arterial units within each region. Annual stroke incidence for each region was derived from official population figures and the number of index stroke admissions per year. Results- The overall number of CEAs performed in England fell from 4992 in 2011 to 3482 in 2017, a 30% decline. Among symptomatic patients, there was a 25% decline, the number of CEAs falling from 4270 to 3217. In asymptomatic patients, there were 722 CEAs performed in 2011 and 265 in 2017, a 63% decline. CEAs per 100 000 adults within all regions declined over time but the size of change varied across the regions (range, 1.7-5.5 per 100 000). The regional numbers of CEAs per year were associated with changes in the regional stroke incidence, the proportion of CEAs performed in asymptomatic patients, and the number of hospitals performing CEA. Conclusions- This population-based study revealed a 63% decline in CEAs among asymptomatic patients between 2011 and 2017, possibly because of changing attitudes in the role of CEA. Reasons for the 25% decline in CEAs among symptomatic patients are unclear as UK guidelines on CEA have not changed for these patients. Whether the proportion of symptomatic patients with 50% to 99% ipsilateral stenosis has changed requires investigation.

Safe working in a 7-day service. Experience of hip fracture care as documented by the UK National Hip Fracture Database.

Objective: to describe differences in care and 30-day mortality of patients admitted with hip fracture on weekends (Saturday-Sunday) compared to weekdays (Monday-Friday), and their relationship to the organisation of care. Methods: data came from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) linked to ONS mortality data on 52,599 patients presenting to 162 units in England between 1 January and 31 December 2014. This was combined with information on geriatrician staffing and major trauma centre (MTC) status. 30-day mortality and care were compared for patients admitted at weekends and weekdays; separately for patients treated in units grouped by the mean level of input by geriatricians, weekend geriatrician clinical cover and MTC status. Differences were adjusted for variation in patients' characteristics. Results: there was no evidence of differences in 30-day mortality between patients admitted at weekends compared to weekdays (7.2 vs 7.5%, P = 0.3) before or after adjusting for patient characteristics in either MTCs or general hospitals. The proportion receiving a preoperative geriatrician assessment was lower at weekends (42.8 vs 60.7%, P < 0.001). 30-day mortality was lower in units with higher levels of geriatrician input, but there was no weekend mortality effect associated with lower levels of input or absence of weekend cover. Conclusion: there was no evidence of a weekend mortality effect among patients treated for hip fracture in the English NHS. It appears that clinical teams provide comparably safe and effective care throughout the week. However, greater geriatrician involvement in teams was associated with overall lower mortality.

Perinatal mortality associated with induction of labour versus expectant management in nulliparous women aged 35 years or over: An English national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A recent randomised controlled trial (RCT) demonstrated that induction of labour at 39 weeks of gestational age has no short-term adverse effect on the mother or infant among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. However, the trial was underpowered to address the effect of routine induction of labour on the risk of perinatal death. We aimed to determine the association between induction of labour at ≥39 weeks and the risk of perinatal mortality among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data collected between April 2009 and March 2014 to compare perinatal mortality between induction of labour at 39, 40, and 41 weeks of gestation and expectant management (continuation of pregnancy to either spontaneous labour, induction of labour, or caesarean section at a later gestation). Analysis was by multivariable Poisson regression with adjustment for maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related conditions. Among the cohort of 77,327 nulliparous women aged 35 to 50 years delivering a singleton infant, 33.1% had labour induced: these women tended to be older and more likely to have medical complications of pregnancy, and the infants were more likely to be small for gestational age. Induction of labour at 40 weeks (compared with expectant management) was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital perinatal death (0.08% versus 0.26%; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.80, P = 0.015) and meconium aspiration syndrome (0.44% versus 0.86%; adjRR 0.52; 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Induction at 40 weeks was also associated with a slightly increased risk of instrumental vaginal delivery (adjRR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11, P = 0.020) and emergency caesarean section (adjRR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09, P = 0.019). The number needed to treat (NNT) analysis indicated that 562 (95% CI 366-1,210) inductions of labour at 40 weeks would be required to prevent 1 perinatal death. Limitations of the study include the reliance on observational data in which gestational age is recorded in weeks rather than days. There is also the potential for unmeasured confounders and under-recording of induction of labour or perinatal death in the dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Bringing forward the routine offer of induction of labour from the current recommendation of 41-42 weeks to 40 weeks of gestation in nulliparous women aged ≥35 years may reduce overall rates of perinatal death.

Increased orthogeriatrician involvement in hip fracture care and its impact on mortality in England.

Objectives: to describe the increase in orthogeriatrician involvement in hip fracture care in England and its association with improvements in time to surgery and mortality. Study design: analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics for 196,401 patients presenting with hip fracture to 150 hospitals in England between 1 April 2010 and 28 February 2014, combined with data on orthogeriatrician hours from a national organisational survey. Methods: we examined changes in the average number of hours worked by orthogeriatricians in orthopaedic departments per patient with hip fracture, and their potential effect on mortality within 30 days of presentation. The role of prompt surgery (on day of or day after presentation) was explored as a potential confounding factor. Associations were assessed using conditional Poisson regression models with adjustment for patients' sex, age and comorbidity and year, with hospitals treated as fixed effects. Results: between 2010 and 2013, there was an increase of 2.5 hours per patient in the median number of hours worked by orthogeriatricians-from 1.5 to 4.0 hours. An increase of 2.5 hours per patient was associated with a relative reduction in mortality of 3.4% (95% confidence interval 0.9% to 5.9%, P = 0.01). This corresponds to an absolute reduction of approximately 0.3%. Higher numbers of orthogeriatrician hours were associated with higher rates of prompt surgery, but were independently associated with lower mortality. Conclusion: in the context of initiatives to improve hip fracture care, we identified statistically significant and robust associations between increased orthogeriatrician hours per patient and reduced 30-day mortality.