RESUMO
BACKGROUND: With large waves of infection driven by the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), alongside evidence of waning immunity after the booster dose of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccine, several countries have begun giving at-risk persons a fourth vaccine dose. METHODS: To evaluate the early effectiveness of a fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine for the prevention of Covid-19-related outcomes, we analyzed data recorded by the largest health care organization in Israel from January 3 to February 18, 2022. We evaluated the relative effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose as compared with that of a third dose given at least 4 months earlier among persons 60 years of age or older. We compared outcomes in persons who had received a fourth dose with those in persons who had not, individually matching persons from these two groups with respect to multiple sociodemographic and clinical variables. A sensitivity analysis was performed with the use of parametric Poisson regression. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 182,122 matched pairs. Relative vaccine effectiveness in days 7 to 30 after the fourth dose was estimated to be 45% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44 to 47) against polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 55% (95% CI, 53 to 58) against symptomatic Covid-19, 68% (95% CI, 59 to 74) against Covid-19-related hospitalization, 62% (95% CI, 50 to 74) against severe Covid-19, and 74% (95% CI, 50 to 90) against Covid-19-related death. The corresponding estimates in days 14 to 30 after the fourth dose were 52% (95% CI, 49 to 54), 61% (95% CI, 58 to 64), 72% (95% CI, 63 to 79), 64% (95% CI, 48 to 77), and 76% (95% CI, 48 to 91). In days 7 to 30 after a fourth vaccine dose, the difference in the absolute risk (three doses vs. four doses) was 180.1 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 142.8 to 211.9) for Covid-19-related hospitalization and 68.8 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 48.5 to 91.9) for severe Covid-19. In sensitivity analyses, estimates of relative effectiveness against documented infection were similar to those in the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was effective in reducing the short-term risk of Covid-19-related outcomes among persons who had received a third dose at least 4 months earlier. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).
Assuntos
Vacina BNT162 , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Imunização Secundária , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacina BNT162/uso terapêutico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19/uso terapêutico , Humanos , Imunização Secundária/estatística & dados numéricos , Israel/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , RNA Mensageiro , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available on the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and specifically against infection with the omicron variant among children 5 to 11 years of age. METHODS: Using data from the largest health care organization in Israel, we identified a cohort of children 5 to 11 years of age who were vaccinated on or after November 23, 2021, and matched them with unvaccinated controls to estimate the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 among newly vaccinated children during the omicron wave. Vaccine effectiveness against documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was estimated after the first and second vaccine doses. The cumulative incidence of each outcome in the two study groups through January 7, 2022, was estimated with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 minus the risk ratio. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated in age subgroups. RESULTS: Among 136,127 eligible children who had been vaccinated during the study period, 94,728 were matched with unvaccinated controls. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against documented infection was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7 to 25) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 51% (95% CI, 39 to 61) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. The absolute risk difference between the study groups at days 7 to 21 after the second dose was 1905 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 1294 to 2440) for documented infection and 599 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 296 to 897) for symptomatic Covid-19. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 was 18% (95% CI, -2 to 34) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 48% (95% CI, 29 to 63) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. We observed a trend toward higher vaccine effectiveness in the youngest age group (5 or 6 years of age) than in the oldest age group (10 or 11 years of age). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that as omicron was becoming the dominant variant, two doses of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine provided moderate protection against documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic Covid-19 in children 5 to 11 years of age. (Funded by the European Union through the VERDI project and others.).
Assuntos
Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Eficácia de Vacinas , Vacina BNT162/uso terapêutico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Israel/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/efeitos dos fármacos , Eficácia de Vacinas/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinas Sintéticas/uso terapêutico , Vacinas de mRNA/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The oral protease inhibitor nirmatrelvir has shown substantial efficacy in high-risk, unvaccinated patients infected with the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Data regarding the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir in preventing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outcomes from the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant are limited. METHODS: We obtained data for all members of Clalit Health Services who were 40 years of age or older at the start of the study period and were assessed as being eligible to receive nirmatrelvir therapy during the omicron surge. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate the association of nirmatrelvir treatment with hospitalization and death due to Covid-19, with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, coexisting conditions, and previous SARS-CoV-2 immunity status. RESULTS: A total of 109,254 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 3902 (4%) received nirmatrelvir during the study period. Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 14.7 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients as compared with 58.9 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.49). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 0.21 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.82). Among patients 40 to 64 years of age, the rate of hospitalization due to Covid-19 was 15.2 cases per 100,000 person-days among treated patients and 15.8 cases per 100,000 person-days among untreated patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.58). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 was 1.32 (95% CI, 0.16 to 10.75). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients 65 years of age or older, the rates of hospitalization and death due to Covid-19 were significantly lower among those who received nirmatrelvir than among those who did not. No evidence of benefit was found in younger adults.
Assuntos
Antivirais , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Lactamas , Leucina , Nitrilas , Prolina , Adulto , Idoso , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , COVID-19/virologia , Hospitalização , Humanos , Lactamas/uso terapêutico , Leucina/uso terapêutico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nitrilas/uso terapêutico , Prolina/uso terapêutico , SARS-CoV-2 , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Reports have suggested an association between the development of myocarditis and the receipt of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but the frequency and severity of myocarditis after vaccination have not been extensively explored. METHODS: We searched the database of Clalit Health Services, the largest health care organization (HCO) in Israel, for diagnoses of myocarditis in patients who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). The diagnosis of myocarditis was adjudicated by cardiologists using the case definition used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We abstracted the presentation, clinical course, and outcome from the patient's electronic health record. We performed a Kaplan-Meier analysis of the incidence of myocarditis up to 42 days after the first vaccine dose. RESULTS: Among more than 2.5 million vaccinated HCO members who were 16 years of age or older, 54 cases met the criteria for myocarditis. The estimated incidence per 100,000 persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine was 2.13 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 2.70). The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in a large Israeli health care system who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, the estimated incidence of myocarditis was 2.13 cases per 100,000 persons; the highest incidence was among male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. Most cases of myocarditis were mild or moderate in severity. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).
Assuntos
Vacina BNT162/efeitos adversos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Miocardite/etiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Comorbidade , Atenção à Saúde , Ecocardiografia , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Israel/epidemiologia , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Miocardite/epidemiologia , Gravidade do Paciente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Distribuição por Sexo , Disfunção Ventricular Esquerda/epidemiologia , Disfunção Ventricular Esquerda/etiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel's largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. METHODS: All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19-related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. RESULTS: Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions. CONCLUSIONS: This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19-related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.
Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação em Massa , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Imunogenicidade da Vacina , Incidência , Israel , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Preapproval trials showed that messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had a good safety profile, yet these trials were subject to size and patient-mix limitations. An evaluation of the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine with respect to a broad range of potential adverse events is needed. METHODS: We used data from the largest health care organization in Israel to evaluate the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. For each potential adverse event, in a population of persons with no previous diagnosis of that event, we individually matched vaccinated persons to unvaccinated persons according to sociodemographic and clinical variables. Risk ratios and risk differences at 42 days after vaccination were derived with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. To place these results in context, we performed a similar analysis involving SARS-CoV-2-infected persons matched to uninfected persons. The same adverse events were studied in the vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection analyses. RESULTS: In the vaccination analysis, the vaccinated and control groups each included a mean of 884,828 persons. Vaccination was most strongly associated with an elevated risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 3.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55 to 12.44; risk difference, 2.7 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 1.0 to 4.6), lymphadenopathy (risk ratio, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.05 to 2.78; risk difference, 78.4 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 64.1 to 89.3), appendicitis (risk ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.01; risk difference, 5.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 0.3 to 9.9), and herpes zoster infection (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.73; risk difference, 15.8 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 8.2 to 24.2). SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a substantially increased risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 18.28; 95% CI, 3.95 to 25.12; risk difference, 11.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 5.6 to 15.8) and of additional serious adverse events, including pericarditis, arrhythmia, deep-vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombocytopenia. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting, the BNT162b2 vaccine was not associated with an elevated risk of most of the adverse events examined. The vaccine was associated with an excess risk of myocarditis (1 to 5 events per 100,000 persons). The risk of this potentially serious adverse event and of many other serious adverse events was substantially increased after SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).
Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , COVID-19/complicações , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Miocardite/etiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Apendicite/etiologia , Vacina BNT162 , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Feminino , Herpes Zoster/etiologia , Humanos , Israel , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Linfadenopatia/etiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Miocardite/epidemiologia , Risco , Fatores de Risco , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Evidence regarding the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine in patients with impaired immunity is limited. Initial observations suggest a lower humoral response in these patients. We evaluated the relative effectiveness of the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine in patients with hematological neoplasms compared with matched controls. Data on patients with hematological neoplasms after 2 vaccine doses were extracted and matched 1:1 with vaccinated controls. Subpopulation analyses focused on patients receiving therapy for hematological neoplasm, patients without treatment who were only followed, and recipients of specific treatments. The analysis focused on COVID-19 outcomes from days 7 through 43 after the second vaccine dose in these areas: documented COVID-19 infection by polymerase chain reaction; symptomatic infection; hospitalizations; severe COVID-19 disease; and COVID-19-related death. In a population of 4.7 million insured people, 32 516 patients with hematological neoplasms were identified, of whom 5017 were receiving therapy for an active disease. Vaccinated patients with hematological neoplasms, compared with vaccinated matched controls, had an increased risk of documented infections (relative risk [RR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.12-2.37); symptomatic COVID-19 (RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.05-2.85); COVID-19-related hospitalizations (RR 3.13, 95% CI 1.68-7.08); severe COVID-19 (RR 2.27, 95% CI 1.18-5.19); and COVID-19-related death (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.72-4.47). Limiting the analysis to patients on hematological treatments showed a higher increased risk. This analysis shows that vaccinated patients with hematological neoplasms, in particular patients receiving treatment, suffer from COVID-19 outcomes more than vaccinated individuals with intact immune system. Ways to enhance COVID-19 immunity in this patient population, such as additional doses, should be explored.
Assuntos
Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19 , Neoplasias Hematológicas , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Idoso , Vacina BNT162/administração & dosagem , Vacina BNT162/imunologia , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Neoplasias Hematológicas/imunologia , Neoplasias Hematológicas/mortalidade , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-IdadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical to increasing survival rates. Computerized risk prediction models hold great promise for identifying individuals at high risk for CRC. In order to utilize such models effectively in a population-wide screening setting, development and validation should be based on cohorts that are similar to the target population. AIM: Establish a risk prediction model for CRC diagnosis based on electronic health records (EHR) from subjects eligible for CRC screening. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study utilizing the EHR data of Clalit Health Services (CHS). The study includes CHS members aged 50-74 who were eligible for CRC screening from January 2013 to January 2019. The model was trained to predict receiving a CRC diagnosis within 2 years of the index date. Approximately 20,000 EHR demographic and clinical features were considered. RESULTS: The study includes 2935 subjects with CRC diagnosis, and 1,133,457 subjects without CRC diagnosis. Incidence values of CRC among subjects in the top 1% risk scores were higher than baseline (2.3% vs 0.3%; lift 8.38; P value < 0.001). Cumulative event probabilities increased with higher model scores. Model-based risk stratification among subjects with a positive FOBT, identified subjects with more than twice the risk for CRC compared to FOBT alone. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an individualized risk prediction model for CRC that can be utilized as a complementary decision support tool for healthcare providers to precisely identify subjects at high risk for CRC and refer them for confirmatory testing.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Incidência , Fatores de Risco , Valor Preditivo dos TestesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Many countries are experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19, driven predominantly by the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2. In response, these countries are considering the administration of a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose to address potential waning immunity over time and reduced effectiveness against the delta variant. We aimed to use the data repositories of Israel's largest health-care organisation to evaluate the effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Clalit Health Services, which provides mandatory health-care coverage for over half of the Israeli population, individuals receiving a third vaccine dose between July 30, 2020, and Sept 23, 2021, were matched (1:1) to demographically and clinically similar controls who did not receive a third dose. Eligible participants had received the second vaccine dose at least 5 months before the recruitment date, had no previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, and had no contact with the health-care system in the 3 days before recruitment. Individuals who are health-care workers, live in long-term care facilities, or are medically confined to their homes were excluded. Primary outcomes were COVID-19-related admission to hospital, severe disease, and COVID-19-related death. The third dose effectiveness for each outcome was estimated as 1â-ârisk ratio using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. FINDINGS: 1â158â269 individuals were eligible to be included in the third dose group. Following matching, the third dose and control groups each included 728â321 individuals. Participants had a median age of 52 years (IQR 37-68) and 51% were female. The median follow-up time was 13 days (IQR 6-21) in both groups. Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago, was estimated to be 93% (231 events for two doses vs 29 events for three doses; 95% CI 88-97) for admission to hospital, 92% (157 vs 17 events; 82-97) for severe disease, and 81% (44 vs seven events; 59-97) for COVID-19-related death. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective in protecting individuals against severe COVID-19-related outcomes, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago. FUNDING: The Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.
Assuntos
Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Imunização Secundária , Eficácia de Vacinas , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Israel/epidemiologia , Masculino , Vacinação em Massa , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Prognóstico , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Most studies estimate hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease prevalence from convenience samples. Consequently, screening policies may not include those at the highest risk for a new diagnosis. METHODS: Clalit Health Services members aged 25-74 as of 31 December 2009 were included in the study. Rates of testing and new diagnoses of HCV were calculated, and potential risk groups were examined. RESULTS: Of the 2 029 501 included members, those aged 45-54 and immigrants had lower rates of testing (12.5% and 15.6%, respectively), higher rates of testing positive (0.8% and 1.1%, respectively), as well as the highest rates of testing positive among tested (6.1% and 6.9%, respectively). DISCUSSION: In this population-level study, groups more likely to test positive for HCV also had lower rates of testing. Policy makers and clinicians worldwide should consider creating screening policies using on population-based data to maximize the ability to detect and treat incident cases.
Assuntos
Hepacivirus , Hepatite C , Adulto , Idoso , Emigração e Imigração , Hepatite C/diagnóstico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/terapia , Humanos , Incidência , Israel/epidemiologia , Programas de Rastreamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Políticas , PrevalênciaRESUMO
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models are widely used in modern medicine and are incorporated into prominent guidelines. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of coronary atherosclerotic disease and has proven utility for predicting cardiovascular disease. Despite this, current guidelines recommend against including CAC scores in CVD prediction models due to the medical and financial costs of acquiring it, and the insufficient evidence concerning its ability to improve existing models. Modern machine learning models are capable of automatically extracting coronary calcium scores from existing chest computed tomography (CT) scans, negating these costs. To determine whether the inclusion of CAC scores, automatically extracted using a machine learning algorithm from chest CTs performed for any reason, improves the performance of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology 2013 pooled cohort equations (PCE). A retrospective cohort of patients with available chest CTs prior to an index date (2012) was used to compare the performance of the PCE model and an augmented-PCE model which utilizes the CT-based CAC scores on top of the existing model. The PCE and the augmented-PCE predictions were calculated as of an index date (2012) using data from the electronic health record and existing chest CTs. The performance of both models was evaluated by comparing their predictions to cardiovascular events that occurred during a 5-year follow-up period (until 2017). A total of 14,135 patients aged 40-79 years were included in the study, of whom 470 (3.3%) had documented CVD events during the follow-up. The augmented-PCE model showed a significant improvement in c-statistic (0.64 ≥ 0.69, Δ = 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.06), sensitivity (53% ≥ 57%, Δ = 4.7%, 95% CI: 0-9.0%), specificity (67% ≥ 70%, Δ = 2.8%, 95% CI: 0.9-5.1%), in positive predictive value (5% ≥ 6%, Δ = 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.4 to 1.4%), negative predictive value (97.7% ≥ 97.9%, Δ = 0.3%, 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.5%), and in the categorical net reclassification index (7.4%, 95% CI: 2.4 to 12.1%). Automatically generated CAC scores from existing CTs can aid in CVD risk determination, improving model performance when used on top of existing predictors. Use of existing CTs avoids most pitfalls currently cited against the routine use of CAC in CVD predictions (e.g., additional radiation exposure), and thus affords a net gain in predictive accuracy.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Calcificação Vascular , Cálcio/análise , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico por imagem , Angiografia Coronária/métodos , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/diagnóstico por imagem , Humanos , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos , Calcificação Vascular/diagnóstico por imagemRESUMO
HLA haplotypes were found to be associated with increased risk for viral infections or disease severity in various diseases, including SARS. Several genetic variants are associated with COVID-19 severity. Studies have proposed associations, based on a very small sample and a large number of tested HLA alleles, but no clear association between HLA and COVID-19 incidence or severity has been reported. We conducted a large-scale HLA analysis of Israeli individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by PCR. Overall, 72,912 individuals with known HLA haplotypes were included in the study, of whom 6413 (8.8%) were found to have SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. A total of 20,937 subjects were of Ashkenazi origin (at least 2/4 grandparents). One hundred eighty-one patients (2.8% of the infected) were hospitalized due to the disease. None of the 66 most common HLA loci (within the five HLA subgroups: A, B, C, DQB1, DRB1) was found to be associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or hospitalization in the general Israeli population. Similarly, no association was detected in the Ashkenazi Jewish subset. Moreover, no association was found between heterozygosity in any of the HLA loci and either infection or hospitalization. We conclude that HLA haplotypes are not a major risk/protecting factor among the Israeli population for SARS-CoV-2 infection or severity. Our results suggest that if any HLA association exists with the disease it is very weak, and of limited effect on the pandemic.
Assuntos
COVID-19/genética , Genótipo , Antígenos HLA/genética , SARS-CoV-2/fisiologia , Adulto , Alelos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/imunologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Etnicidade , Feminino , Estudos de Associação Genética , Haplótipos , Teste de Histocompatibilidade , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Israel/epidemiologia , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Classe SocialAssuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Vacina BNT162 , Humanos , Vacinação em Massa , RNA Mensageiro , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
ErbB2 interacting protein (Erbin) is a widely expressed protein and participates in inhibition of several intracellular signaling pathways. Its mRNA has been found to be present in relatively high levels in the heart. However, its physiological role in the heart has not been explored. In the present work, we elucidated the role of Erbin in cardiac hypertrophy. Cardiac hypertrophy was induced in mice either by isoproterenol administration or by aortic constriction. The level of Erbin was significantly decreased in both models. Erbin(-/-) mice rapidly develop decompensated cardiac hypertrophy, and following severe pressure overload all Erbin(-/-) mice died from heart failure. Down-regulation of Erbin expression was also observed in biopsies derived from human failing hearts. It is known that Erbin inhibits Ras-mediated activation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) by binding to Soc-2 suppressor of clear homolog (Shoc2). Our data clearly show that ERK phosphorylation is enhanced in the heart tissues of Erbin(-/-) mice. Furthermore, we clearly demonstrate here that Erbin associates with Shoc2 in both whole hearts and in cardiomyocytes, and that in the absence of Erbin, Raf is phosphorylated and binds Shoc2, resulting in ERK phosphorylation. In conclusion, Erbin is an inhibitor of pathological cardiac hypertrophy, and this inhibition is mediated, at least in part, by modulating ERK signaling.
Assuntos
Cardiomegalia/patologia , Proteínas de Transporte/metabolismo , Animais , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Cardiomegalia/genética , Progressão da Doença , Regulação para Baixo/efeitos dos fármacos , Regulação para Baixo/genética , MAP Quinases Reguladas por Sinal Extracelular/metabolismo , Humanos , Peptídeos e Proteínas de Sinalização Intracelular , Isoproterenol/farmacologia , Camundongos , Miocárdio/metabolismo , Miocárdio/patologia , Fosforilação/efeitos dos fármacos , PressãoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: AZD7442 is a combination of two neutralizing antibodies (tixagevimab/cilgavimab) with demonstrated efficacy in reducing the risk of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 ≤ 6 months after administration. On February 15, 2022, the Israeli Ministry of Health (IMoH) authorized the administration of 300 mg AZD7442 as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection among immunocompromised individuals aged ≥ 12 years. This study describes the real-world uptake of AZD7442 in Israel. METHODS: This descriptive, observational study analyzed data from Israel's largest health maintenance organization, Clalit Health Services (CHS). Individuals were assessed for AZD7442 eligibility between February 13 and December 11, 2022, and were included if they were aged ≥ 12 years, had ≥ 1 year of continuous CHS membership, had ≥ 1 moderate or severe immunocompromising condition, and were eligible for AZD7442 per IMoH recommendations during this time frame. RESULTS: Overall, 19,161 AZD7442-eligible individuals with immunocompromising conditions were identified during the study period; 2829 (14.8%) received AZD7442. A higher proportion of individuals receiving AZD7442 were older (aged ≥ 65 years), male, not current smokers and residents in large cities; required more physician visits (> 50 visits); and had ≥ 1 COVID-19 hospitalization over 12 months, while uptake was lowest among ultra-orthodox Jewish individuals. AZD7442 uptake was also higher among individuals with multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 5), including hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. In specific immunocompromised types, AZD7442 uptake was highest among individuals with lung transplantation (41%), primary immunodeficiency (32%), bone marrow transplantation (29%) and multiple myeloma (25%) or those receiving anti-CD20 therapy (26%) and was lowest in individuals with lymphoma (8%). CONCLUSION: These results show AZD7442 uptake among the eligible population of Israel in 2022 was relatively low, at 14.8%. Uptake was generally higher among immunocompromised individuals who may be perceived to be frail or at highest risk of COVID-19 infection and complications, although at 25-41%, further improvements in uptake would be more impactful. These results also indicate there is opportunity to expand AZD7442 uptake across immunocompromised groups and ensure more equitable uptake among some other sociodemographic groups. Overall, this study will help inform and reassess future implementation strategies for vulnerable populations.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the world. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to diagnose COVID-19, with its cycle threshold (Ct) value inversely related to the viral load. The association between Ct values and COVID-19 related outcomes has been studied in the hospital setting but less so in the community. We aimed to estimate the association between Ct values and the severity of community-diagnosed COVID-19 to provide evidence on the utility of Ct testing in this setting. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study based on data from Israel's largest health organization. The study population included 34,658 individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 by RT-PCR and had available Ct values between June 1st and December 21st, 2020. Outcomes included COVID-19 related symptoms, hospitalization, severe disease, and death. Ct values were modelled both as discrete and continuous exposures. RESULTS: After adjusting for known risk factors for severe COVID-19, low Ct values were associated with symptomatic disease (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.21-1.84), hospitalization (OR: 1.27; 95%CI: 1.12-1.49), severe disease (OR: 1.80; 95%CI: 1.43-2.27), and death (OR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.06-2.59). By modelling the exposure as continuous, we noticed a dose-response relationship, with the risk gradually rising with lower Ct values. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a significant association between low Ct values and severe COVID-19 related outcomes, with a dose-response relationship. This suggests that Ct values could be helpful in identifying high-risk patients diagnosed in the community.
Assuntos
Teste de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , COVID-19 , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Hospitalização , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo Real , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
Heart failure (HF) prevalence is increasing worldwide and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Guidelines emphasize prevention in those at-risk, but HF-specific risk prediction equations developed in United States population-based cohorts lack external validation in large, real-world datasets outside of the United States. The purpose of this study was to assess the model performance of the pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) within a contemporary electronic health record for 5- and 10-year risk. Using a retrospective cohort study design of Israeli residents between 2008 and 2018 with continuous membership until end of follow-up, HF, or death, we quantified 5- and 10-year estimated risks of HF using the PCP-HF equations, which integrate demographics (age, gender, and race) and risk factors (body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glucose, medication use for hypertension or diabetes, and smoking status). Of 1,394,411 patients included, 56% were women with mean age of 49.6 (SD 13.2) years. Incident HF occurred in 1.2% and 4.5% of participants over 5 and 10 years of follow-up. The PCP-HF model had excellent discrimination for 5- and 10-year predictions of incident HF (C Statistic 0.82 [0.82 to 0.82] and 0.84 [0.84 to 0.84]), respectively. In conclusion, HF-specific risk equations (PCP-HF) accurately predict the risk of incident HF in ambulatory and hospitalized patients using routinely available clinical data.