Type 2 diabetes detection and management among insured adults.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 28.9 million adults had diabetes in 2012 in the US, though many patients are undiagnosed or not managing their condition. This study provides US national and state estimates of insured adults with type 2 diabetes who are diagnosed, receiving exams and medication, managing glycemic levels, with diabetes complications, and their health expenditures. Such information can be used for benchmarking and to identify gaps in diabetes detection and management. METHODS: The study combines analysis of survey data with medical claims analysis for the commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid populations to estimate the number of adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes by insurance type, age, and sex. Medical claims analysis used the 2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database covering a nationally representative commercially insured population, the 2011 Medicare 5% Sample, and the 2008 Medicaid Mini-Max. RESULTS: Among insured adults in 2012, approximately 16.9 million had diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 1.45 million had diagnosed type 1 diabetes, and 6.9 million had undiagnosed diabetes. Of those with diagnosed type 2, approximately 13.0 million (77%) received diabetes medication-ranging from 70% in New Jersey to 82% in Utah. Suboptimal percentages had claims indicating recommended exams were performed. Of those receiving diabetes medication, 43% (5.6 million) had medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes-ranging from 29% with poor control in Minnesota and Iowa to 53% in Texas. Poor control was correlated with higher prevalence of neurological complications (+14%), renal complications (+14%), and peripheral vascular disease (+11%). Patients with poor control averaged $4,860 higher average annual health care expenditures-ranging from $6,680 for commercially insured patients to $4,360 for Medicaid and $3,430 for Medicare patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large number of insured adults with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes by insurance type and state. Furthermore, this study sheds light on other gaps in diabetes care quality among patients with diagnosed diabetes and corresponding poorly controlled diabetes. These findings underscore the need for improvements in data collection and diabetes screening and management, along with policies that support these improvements.

Return on Investment for Digital Behavioral Counseling in Patients With Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We calculated the health and economic impacts of participation in a digital behavioral counseling service that is designed to promote a healthful diet and physical activity for cardiovascular disease prevention in adults with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors (Prevent, Omada Health, San Francisco, California). This program enhances the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Diabetes Prevention Recognition Program. Participants completed a 16-week core program followed by an ongoing maintenance program. METHODS: Analysis was conducted for 2 populations meeting criteria for lifestyle intervention: 1) prediabetes (n = 1,663), and 2) high cardiovascular disease risk (n = 2,152). The Markov-based model simulated clinical and economic outcomes related to obesity and diabetes annually over 10 years for the 2 defined populations. Comparisons were made between participants and propensity-matched controls from the community. RESULTS: The return-on-investment break-even point was 3 years in both populations. Simulated return on investment for the population with prediabetes was $9 and $1,565 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Simulated return on investment for the population with cardiovascular disease risk was $96 and $1,512 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Results suggest that program participation reduces diabetes incidence by 30% to 33% and stroke by 11% to 16% over 5 years. CONCLUSION: Digital Behavioral Counseling provides significant health benefits to patients with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease and a positive return on investment.

Can value-based insurance impose societal costs?

BACKGROUND: Among policy alternatives considered to reduce health care costs and improve outcomes, value-based insurance design (VBID) has emerged as a promising option. Most applications of VBID, however, have not used higher cost sharing to discourage specific services. In April 2011, the state of Oregon introduced a policy for public employees that required additional cost sharing for high-cost procedures such as total knee arthroplasty (TKA). OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to estimate the societal impact of higher co-pays for TKA using Oregon as a case study and building on recent work demonstrating the effects of knee osteoarthritis and surgical treatment on employment and disability outcomes. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate the societal impact in terms of quality of life, direct costs, and indirect costs of higher co-pays for TKA using Oregon as a case study. RESULTS: We found that TKA for a working population can generate societal benefits that offset the direct medical costs of the procedure. Delay in receiving surgical care, because of higher co-payment or other reasons, reduced the societal savings from TKA. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that payers moving toward value-based cost sharing should consider consequences beyond direct medical expenses.

Detecting type 2 diabetes and prediabetes among asymptomatic adults in the United States: modeling American Diabetes Association versus US Preventive Services Task Force diabetes screening guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Screening to detect prediabetes and diabetes enables early prevention and intervention. This study describes the number and characteristics of asymptomatic, undiagnosed adults in the United States who could be detected with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes using the American Diabetes Association (ADA) guidelines compared to the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines. METHODS: We developed predictive models for undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes using polytomous logistic regression from data on risk factors in the 2003-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 19,056). We applied these predictive models to the 2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which contains health care use data, to generate probabilities of undiagnosed diabetes and undetected prediabetes for each adult. We summed individual probabilities to estimate the number of adults who would be detected with prediabetes and/or type 2 diabetes if screened under ADA or USPSTF guidelines. We analyzed health care use patterns of people at high risk for diabetes. RESULTS: In 2010, 59.1 million adults met the USPSTF screening criteria including 24.4 million people with undetected prediabetes and 3.7 million people with undiagnosed diabetes. In comparison, among the 86.3 million people who met the ADA screening criteria, there were 33.9 million with undetected prediabetes and 4.6 million with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes. The ADA guidelines detected 38.9% more cases of prediabetes and 24.3% more cases of type 2 diabetes compared to the USPSTF guidelines. Subgroup analysis showed that ADA guidelines would detect 78% more cases of diabetes among the age 54 and younger population, in 40% more blacks, and in more than twice as many Hispanics than USPSTF guidelines. Only 58% of adults meeting ADA guidelines and 70% meeting USPSTF guidelines had ≥ 1 primary care office visit in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to USPSTF guidelines, ADA guidelines would screen more people and detect more cases of both prediabetes and type 2 diabetes, though a substantial percentage of patients with undetected cases had no contact with a primary care provider in 2010. Addressing the problem of large numbers of undetected prediabetes and type 2 diabetes cases will require new strategies for screening.

How does accounting for worker productivity affect the measured cost-effectiveness of lumbar discectomy?

BACKGROUND: Back pain attributable to lumbar disc herniation is a substantial cause of reduced workplace productivity. Disc herniation surgery is effective in reducing pain and improving function. However, few studies have examined the effects of surgery on worker productivity. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: We wished to determine the effect of disc herniation surgery on workers' earnings and missed workdays and how accounting for this effect influences the cost-effectiveness of surgery? METHODS: Regression models were estimated using data from the National Health Interview Survey to assess the effects of lower back pain caused by disc herniation on earnings and missed workdays. The results were incorporated into Markov models to compare societal costs associated with surgical and nonsurgical treatments for privately insured, working patients. Clinical outcomes and utilities were based on results from the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial and additional clinical literature. RESULTS: We estimate average annual earnings of $47,619 with surgery and $45,694 with nonsurgical treatment. The increased earnings for patients receiving surgery as compared with nonsurgical treatment is equal to $1925 (95% CI, $1121-$2728). After surgery, we also estimate that workers receiving surgery miss, on average, 3 fewer days per year than if workers had received nonsurgical treatment (95% CI, 2.4-3.7 days). However, these fewer missed work days only partially offset the assumed 20 workdays missed to recover from surgery. More fully accounting for the effects of disc herniation surgery on productivity reduced the cost of surgery per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from $52,416 to $35,146 using a 4-year time horizon and from $27,359 to $4186 using an 8-year time horizon. According to a sensitivity analysis, the 4-year cost per QALY varies between $27,921 and $49,787 depending on model assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Increased worker earnings resulting from disc herniation surgery may offset the increased direct medical costs associated with surgery. After accounting for the effects on productivity, disc herniation surgery was found to be a highly cost-effective surgery and may yield net societal savings if the benefits of outpatient and inpatient surgery persist beyond 6 and 12 years, respectively. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, economic and decision analysis. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Modeling the economic value of cardiometabolic virtual-first care programs.

OBJECTIVES: This study simulated the potential multiyear health and economic benefits of participation in 4 cardiometabolic virtual-first care (V1C) programs: prevention, hypertension, diabetes, and diabetes plus hypertension. STUDY DESIGN: Using nationally available data and existing clinical and demographic information from members participating in cardiometabolic V1C programs, a microsimulation approach was used to estimate potential reduction in onset of disease sequelae and associated gross savings (ie, excluding the cost of V1C programs) in health care costs. METHODS: Members of each program were propensity matched to similar records in the combined 2012-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey files based on age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and diagnosis status of diabetes and/or hypertension. V1C program-attributed changes in clinical outcomes combined with baseline biometric levels and other risk factors were used as inputs to model disease onset and related gross health care costs. RESULTS: Across the V1C programs, sustained improvements in weight loss, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure levels were estimated to reduce incidence of modeled disease sequelae by 2% to 10% over the 5 years following enrollment. As a result of sustained improvement in biometrics and reduced disease onset, the estimated gross savings in medical expenditures across the programs would be $892 to $1342 after 1 year, and cumulative estimated gross medical savings would be $2963 to $4346 after 3 years and $5221 to $7756 after 5 years. In addition, high program engagement was associated with greater health and economic benefits. CONCLUSIONS: V1C programs for prevention and management of cardiometabolic chronic conditions have potential long-term health and financial implications.

The current and projected economic burden of Parkinson's disease in the United States.

Parkinson's disease (PD), following Alzheimer's disease, is the second-most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States. A lack of treatment options for changing the trajectory of disease progression, in combination with an increasing elderly population, portends a rising economic burden on patients and payers. This study combined information from nationally representative surveys to create a burden of PD model. The model estimates disease prevalence, excess healthcare use and medical costs, and nonmedical costs for each demographic group defined by age and sex. Estimated prevalence rates and costs were applied to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 to 2050 population data to estimate current and projected burden based on changing demographics. We estimate that approximately 630,000 people in the United States had diagnosed PD in 2010, with diagnosed prevalence likely to double by 2040. The national economic burden of PD exceeds $14.4 billion in 2010 (approximately $22,800 per patient). The population with PD incurred medical expenses of approximately $14 billion in 2010, $8.1 billion higher ($12,800 per capita) than expected for a similar population without PD. Indirect costs (e.g., reduced employment) are conservatively estimated at $6.3 billion (or close to $10,000 per person with PD). The burden of chronic conditions such as PD is projected to grow substantially over the next few decades as the size of the elderly population grows. Such projections give impetus to the need for innovative new treatments to prevent, delay onset, or alleviate symptoms of PD and other similar diseases.

Modeling the indirect economic implications of musculoskeletal disorders and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal disorders impose a substantial economic burden on American society, but few studies have examined the economic benefits associated with treating such disorders. The purpose of this research is to estimate the indirect economic implications of activity limitations associated with musculoskeletal disorders and to quantifying the potential economic gains from elective surgery to treat arthritis of the knee and hip. METHODS: Using regression analysis with the National Health Interview Survey (2004-2010 data, n=185,829 adults) we quantify the relationship between severity of activity limitations (walking, sitting, standing, etc.) and employment, household income, missed work days, and receipt of supplemental security income for disability. Activity limitations are combined to create an index similar to the Functional Ability Index from the Short Form 36 Health Questionnaire (SF-36) often used in clinical trials to measure patient functional mobility. This index is included in the regression analyses. We use data from published, prospective clinical trials to establish the improvement in patient functional ability following surgery to treat arthritis of the knee and hip. RESULTS: Improved physical function is associated with higher likelihood of employment, higher household income and fewer missed work days for those who are employed, and reduced likelihood of receiving supplemental security income for disability. The magnitude of the impact and statistical significance vary by activity limitation and severity. Each percentage point increase in the index value is associated with a 2-percentage-point increase in the odds of being employed, a 3-percentage-point-day decline in work days missed and an additional $180 in annual household income if employed, and a 2-percentage-point decline in the odds of receiving supplemental security income for disability. All estimates are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large, representative sample of non-institutionalized adults in the U.S., we find that physical activity limitations are associated with worse economic outcomes across multiple economic metrics. Combined with estimates of improved functional ability following knee and hip surgery, we quantify some of the economic benefits of surgery for arthritis of the knee and hip. This information helps improve understanding of the societal benefits of medical treatment for musculoskeletal conditions.

The value of virtual physical therapy for musculoskeletal care.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic benefit of evidence-based patient-initiated virtual physical therapy (PIVPT) service among a nationally representative sample of commercially insured patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions. STUDY DESIGN: Counterfactual simulation. METHODS: Using a nationally representative sample from the 2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we simulated the direct medical care savings and indirect cost savings from reduced absenteeism resulting from PIVPT among commercially insured working adults with self-reported MSK conditions. Model parameters of the impact of PIVPT are drawn from peer-reviewed literature. Four potential benefits of PIVPT are explored: (1) more rapid access to PT, (2) improved adherence to PT, (3) less expensive PT care per episode, and (4) reduced/avoided referral costs of PT. RESULTS: The mean medical care savings per person per year from PIVPT range between $1116 and $1523. Savings are mainly attributed to early initiation of PT (35%) and lower cost of PT (33%). The benefits of PIVPT result in a mean reduction of 6.6 hours in pain-related missed work per person per year. The return on investment of PIVPT is 2.0 (medical savings only) or 2.2 (medical savings plus reduced absenteeism). CONCLUSIONS: PIVPT service provides added value to MSK care by facilitating earlier access and better adherence to PT and lowering the cost of PT.

Impact of a Digitally Enhanced Diabetes Self-Management Program on Glycemia and Medical Costs.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze economic savings and health impacts associated with a virtual digitally enhanced diabetes self-management education and support (DSMES) program. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants (n = 1,494) were nonpregnant adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes and baseline body mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 (23 kg/m2 if of Asian descent) or higher who enrolled in virtual DSMES between February 2019 and April 2020 for at least 4 months. Participants' changes in glycated hemoglobin (A1C) and body weight were calculated as the difference between program start and last recorded values between months 4 and 6. Outcomes for all participants were analyzed; subanalyses were done on 628 participants with starting A1C >7% (53 mmol/mol), who could benefit most from DSMES. Markov-based microsimulation approach was used to model the potential reductions in diabetes sequalae and medical expenditures if observed improvements in A1C and BMI were maintained. RESULTS: DSMES participants with starting A1C >7% experienced average reductions of 0.9% A1C and 2.1 kg of body weight (-1.7% of BMI) within 6 months. If these improvements were maintained, simulated outcomes include reduced 5-year onset of ischemic heart disease by 9.2%, myocardial infarction by 10.6%, stroke by 12.1%, chronic kidney disease by 16.5%, and reduced onset of other sequelae. Simulated cumulative reduction in medical expenditures is $1160 after 1 year, $4150 after 3 years, $7790 after 5 years, and $18 020 after 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in virtual DSMES improves A1C and body weight, with the potential to slow onset of diabetes sequelae and reduce medical expenditures.

Health care use and costs for participants in a diabetes disease management program, United States, 2007-2008.

INTRODUCTION: The Disease Management Association of America identifies diabetes as one of the chronic conditions with the greatest potential for management. TRICARE Management Activity, which administers health care benefits for US military service personnel, retirees, and their dependents, created a disease management program for beneficiaries with diabetes. The objective of this study was to determine whether participation intensity and prior indication of uncontrolled diabetes were associated with health care use and costs for participants enrolled in TRICARE's diabetes management program. METHODS: This ongoing, opt-out study used a quasi-experimental approach to assess program impact for beneficiaries (n = 37,370) aged 18 to 64 living in the United States. Inclusion criteria were any diabetes-related emergency department visits or hospitalizations, more than 10 diabetes-related ambulatory visits, or more than twenty 30-day prescriptions for diabetes drugs in the previous year. Beginning in June 2007, all participants received educational mailings. Participants who agreed to receive a baseline telephone assessment and telephone counseling once per month in addition to educational mailings were considered active, and those who did not complete at least the baseline telephone assessment were considered passive. We categorized the diabetes status of each participant as "uncontrolled" or "controlled" on the basis of medical claims containing diagnosis codes for uncontrolled diabetes in the year preceding program eligibility. We compared observed outcomes to outcomes predicted in the absence of diabetes management. Prediction equations were based on regression analysis of medical claims for a historical control group (n = 23,818) that in October 2004 met the eligibility criteria for TRICARE's program implemented June 2007. We conducted regression analysis comparing historical control group patient outcomes after October 2004 with these baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Per-person total annual medical savings for program participants, calculated as the difference between observed and predicted outcomes, averaged $783. Active participants had larger reductions in inpatient days and emergency department visits, larger increases in ambulatory visits, and larger increases in receiving retinal examinations, hemoglobin A1c tests, and urine microalbumin tests compared with passive participants. Participants with prior indication of uncontrolled diabetes had higher per-person total annual medical savings, larger reduction in inpatient days, and larger increases in ambulatory visits than did participants with controlled diabetes. CONCLUSION: Greater intensity of participation in TRICARE's diabetes management program was associated with lower medical costs and improved receipt of recommended testing. That patients who were categorized as having uncontrolled diabetes realized greater program benefits suggests diabetes management programs should consider indication of uncontrolled diabetes in their program candidate identification criteria.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 1: Results From a Cross-sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the current physiatrist workforce in the United States. DESIGN: An online, cross-sectional survey of board-certified physiatrists in 2019 (N = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographic and practice characteristics, including age, sex, practice area, practice setting, hours worked, patient characteristics, staffing, and work responsibilities. Physiatrists were stratified by substantive practice patterns using a cluster analysis approach. Survey responses were arrayed across the practice patterns and differences noted. RESULTS: The practice patterns identified included musculoskeletal/pain medicine, general/neurological rehabilitation, academic practice, pediatric rehabilitation, orthopedic/complex conditions rehabilitation, and disability/occupational rehabilitation. Many differences were observed across these practice patterns. Notably, primary practice setting and the extent and ways in which other healthcare staff are used in physiatry practices differed across practice patterns. Physiatrists working in musculoskeletal/pain medicine and disability/occupational rehabilitation were least likely to work with nurse practitioners and physician assistants. Physiatrists working in academic practice, general/neurological rehabilitation, and pediatric rehabilitation were most likely to have primary practice settings in hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Physiatry is an evolving medical specialty affected by many of the same trends as other medical specialties. The results of this survey can inform policy discussions and further research on the effects of these trends on physiatrists and physiatry practice in the future.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States. DESIGN: A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources. RESULTS: Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030. CONCLUSION: Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall.

Shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons is likely by 2020.

BACKGROUND: Even as the burden of cardiovascular disease in the United States is increasing as the population grows and ages, the number of active cardiothoracic surgeons has fallen for the first time in 20 years. Meanwhile, the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease continues to evolve amid uncertain changes in technology. This study evaluates current and future requirements for cardiothoracic surgeons in light of decreasing rates of coronary artery bypass grafting procedures. METHODS AND RESULTS: Projections of supply and demand for cardiothoracic surgeons are based on analysis of population, physician office, hospital, and physician data sets to estimate current patterns of healthcare use and delivery. Using a simulation model, we project the future supply of cardiothoracic surgeons under alternative assumptions about the number of new fellows trained each year. Future demand is modeled, taking into account patient demographics, under current and alternative use rates that include the elimination of open revascularization. By 2025, the demand for cardiothoracic surgeons could increase by 46% on the basis of population growth and aging if current healthcare use and service delivery patterns continue. Even with complete elimination of coronary artery bypass grafting, there is a projected shortfall of cardiothoracic surgeons because the active supply is projected to decrease 21% over the same time period as a result of retirement and declining entrants. CONCLUSIONS: The United States is facing a shortage of cardiothoracic surgeons within the next 10 years, which could diminish quality of care if non-board-certified physicians expand their role in cardiothoracic surgery or if patients must delay appropriate care because of a shortage of well-trained surgeons.

Disease management 360 degrees: a scorecard approach to evaluating TRICARE's programs for asthma, congestive heart failure, and diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of TRICARE's asthma, congestive heart failure, and diabetes disease management programs using a scorecard approach. EVALUATION MEASURES: Patient healthcare utilization, financial, clinical, and humanistic outcomes. Absolute measures were translated into effect size and incorporated into a scorecard. RESEARCH DESIGN: Actual outcomes for program participants were compared with outcomes predicted in the absence of disease management. The predictive equations were established from regression models based on historical control groups (n = 39,217). Z scores were calculated for the humanistic measures obtained through a mailed survey. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Administrative records containing medical claims, patient demographics and characteristics, and program participation status were linked using an encrypted patient identifier (n = 57,489). The study time frame is 1 year prior to program inception through 2 years afterward (October 2005-September 2008). A historical control group was identified with the baseline year starting October 2003 and a 1-year follow-up period starting October 2004. A survey was administered to a subset of participants 6 months after baseline assessment (39% response rate). RESULTS: Within the observation window--24 months for asthma and congestive heart failure, and 15 months for the diabetes program--we observed modest reductions in hospital days and healthcare cost for all 3 programs and reductions in emergency visits for 2 programs. Most clinical outcomes moved in the direction anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: The scorecard provided a useful tool to track performance of 3 regional contractors for each of 3 diseases and over time.

The economic value of professional nursing.

BACKGROUND: Improved understanding of the economic value of registered nurse services can help inform staffing decisions and policies. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the economic value of professional nursing. METHODS: We synthesize findings from the literature on the relationship between registered nurse staffing levels and nursing-sensitive patient outcomes in acute care hospitals. Using hospital discharge data to estimate incidence and cost of these patient outcomes together with productivity measures, we estimate the economic implications of changes in registered nurse staffing levels. SUBJECTS: Medical and surgical patients in nonfederal acute care hospitals. Data come from a literature review, and hospital discharge data from the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. MEASURES: Patient nosocomial complications, healthcare expenditures, and national productivity. RESULTS: As nurse staffing levels increase, patient risk of nosocomial complications and hospital length of stay decrease, resulting in medical cost savings, improved national productivity, and lives saved. CONCLUSIONS: Only a portion of the services that professional nurses provide can be quantified in pecuniary terms, but the partial estimates of economic value presented illustrate the economic value to society of improved quality of care achieved through higher staffing levels.

Potential health benefits and medical cost savings from calorie, sodium, and saturated fat reductions in the American diet.

PURPOSE: Model the potential national health benefits and medical savings from reduced daily intake of calories, sodium, and saturated fat among the U.S. adult population. DESIGN: Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include the prevalence of overweight/obesity, uncontrolled hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and related chronic conditions under various hypothetical dietary changes. SETTING: United States. SUBJECTS: Two hundred twenty-four million adults. MEASURES: Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. ANALYSIS: The simulation model predicts disease prevalence and medical expenditures under hypothetical dietary change scenarios. RESULTS: We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity and save $58 billion annually. Long-term sodium intake reductions of 400 mg/d in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, saving $2.3 billion annually. Decreasing 5 g/d of saturated fat intake in those with elevated cholesterol would eliminate 3.9 million cases, saving $2.0 billion annually. CONCLUSIONS: Modest to aggressive changes in diet can improve health and reduce annual national medical expenditures by $60 billion to $120 billion. One use of the model is to estimate the impact of dietary change related to setting public health priorities for dietary guidance. The findings here argue that emphasis on reduction in caloric intake should be the highest priority.

Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.

PURPOSE: To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. DESIGN: Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. SETTING: United States. SUBJECTS: Two hundred twenty-five million adults. MEASURES: Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. ANALYSIS: We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. RESULTS: We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)

Economic implications of reduced binge drinking among the military health system's TRICARE Prime plan beneficiaries.

This study examines the economic burden of alcohol misuse to the Department of Defense (DoD) and the benefits of reduced binge drinking among beneficiaries in the DoD's TRICARE Prime plan. Data analyzed include administrative records for approximately 3 million beneficiaries age 18 to 64, DoD's Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Military Personnel, and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Alcohol misuse among Prime beneficiaries cost the DoD an estimated $1.2 billion in 2006--$425 million in higher medical costs and $745 million in reduced readiness and misconduct charges. Potential annual gross benefits to the DoD of reduced binge drinking are simulated for three scenarios: (1) implementing a comprehensive alcohol screening with referral to brief intervention or treatment by primary care ($87 million/$129 million in short/long-term benefits); (2) increasing the price of alcoholic beverages on military installations by 20% ($75 million/$115 million); and (3) implementing a Web-based education program ($81 million/$123 million).

The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond.

BACKGROUND: Childhood caries is a major oral and general health problem, particularly in certain populations. In this study, the authors aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the supply of pediatric dentists. METHODS: The authors collected baseline practice information from 2,546 pediatric dentists through an online survey (39.1% response rate) in 2017. The authors used a workforce simulation model by using data from the survey and other sources to produce estimates under several scenarios to anticipate future supply and demand for pediatric dentists. RESULTS: If production of new pediatric dentists and use and delivery of oral health care continue at current rates, the pediatric dentist supply will increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, whereas demand will increase by 140 FTE dentists by 2030. Supply growth was higher under hypothetical scenarios with an increased number of graduates (4,690 FTEs) and delayed retirement (4,320 FTEs). If children who are underserved experience greater access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger portion of services for children, demand could grow by 2,100 FTE dentists or by 10,470 FTE dentists, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study results suggest that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing more rapidly than is the demand. Growth in demand could increase if pediatric dentists captured a larger share of pediatric dental services or if children who are underserved had oral health care use patterns similar to those of the population with fewer access barriers. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: It is important to encourage policy changes to reduce barriers to accessing oral health care, to continue pediatric dentists' participation with Medicaid programs, and to urge early dental services for children.