A linear mixed model to estimate COVID-19-induced excess mortality.

The Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased mortality in countries worldwide. To evaluate the impact of the pandemic on mortality, the use of excess mortality rather than reported COVID-19 deaths has been suggested. Excess mortality, however, requires estimation of mortality under nonpandemic conditions. Although many methods exist to forecast mortality, they are either complex to apply, require many sources of information, ignore serial correlation, and/or are influenced by historical excess mortality. We propose a linear mixed model that is easy to apply, requires only historical mortality data, allows for serial correlation, and down-weighs the influence of historical excess mortality. Appropriateness of the linear mixed model is evaluated with fit statistics and forecasting accuracy measures for Belgium and the Netherlands. Unlike the commonly used 5-year weekly average, the linear mixed model is forecasting the year-specific mortality, and as a result improves the estimation of excess mortality for Belgium and the Netherlands.

High temperatures trigger suicide mortality in Brussels, Belgium: A case-crossover study (2002-2011).

BACKGROUND: Temperature may trigger the risk of suicide, however, the extent and shape of the associations show geographical variation. Here, we investigate the short-term effects of temperature on suicide deaths occurring in Brussels between January 1st, 2002 and December 31st, 2011. METHODS: We conducted a bidirectional time-stratified case-crossover study with cases being suicide deaths occurring among Brussels residents aged 5 years or older. Cases were matched by day of the week with control days from the same month and year. The exposure was the daily average temperature measured at the Uccle station (Brussels) and obtained from the Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute. We combined conditional logistic regression with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to obtain one week (lag 0-6) cumulative risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the effects of moderate and extreme cold (5th and 1st percentiles of temperature, respectively) and moderate and extreme heat (95th and 99th percentiles of temperature, respectively), relative to the median temperature. RESULTS: In total, 1891 suicide deaths were included. The median temperature was 11.6 °C, moderate and extreme cold temperatures were 0 and -3.1 °C, respectively, and moderate and extreme high temperatures were 20.9 and 24.4 °C, respectively. The cumulative risk of suicide mortality was almost twice higher among lags 0 to 6 for both moderate and extreme heat, relative to the period median temperature (e.g. moderate heat RR = 1.80 CI:1.27-2.54). No statistically significant associations were observed for cold temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: In Brussels, a western European city with temperate climate, high temperatures may trigger suicide deaths up to one week later. In the context of climate change, adaptation strategies must take into consideration the effects of temperature on mental health.

COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020.

BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.

Determinants of inequalities in years with disability: an international-comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Persons with a lower socioeconomic position spend more years with disability, despite their shorter life expectancy, but it is unknown what the important determinants are. This study aimed to quantify the contribution to educational inequalities in years with disability of eight risk factors: father's manual occupation, low income, few social contacts, smoking, high alcohol consumption, high body-weight, low physical exercise and low fruit and vegetable consumption. METHODS: We collected register-based mortality and survey-based disability and risk factor data from 15 European countries covering the period 2010-14 for most countries. We calculated years with disability between the ages of 35 and 80 by education and gender using the Sullivan method, and determined the hypothetical effect of changing the prevalence of each risk factor to the prevalence observed among high educated ('upward levelling scenario'), using Population Attributable Fractions. RESULTS: Years with disability among low educated were higher than among high educated, with a difference of 4.9 years among men and 5.5 years among women for all countries combined. Most risk factors were more prevalent among low educated. We found the largest contributions to inequalities in years with disability for low income (men: 1.0 year; women: 1.4 year), high body-weight (men: 0.6 year; women: 1.2 year) and father's manual occupation (men: 0.7 year; women: 0.9 year), but contributions differed by country. The contribution of smoking was relatively small. CONCLUSIONS: Disadvantages in material circumstances (low income), circumstances during childhood (father's manual occupation) and high body-weight contribute to inequalities in years with disability.

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries.

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Residential urban greenspace and hypertension: A comparative study in two European cities.

BACKGROUND: Living in green areas has been associated with several health benefits; however, the available evidence on such benefits for hypertension is still limited. This study aimed to investigate and compare the association between residential exposure to greenspace and hypertension in Barcelona, Spain and Brussels, Belgium. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was based on data from the 2016 Barcelona Health Interview Survey (HIS) (n = 3400) and the 2013 Belgian HIS (n = 2335). Both surveys were harmonized in terms of outcomes, confounders and exposure assessment. Residential exposure to greenspace was characterized as 1) surrounding greenspace (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and modified soil-adjusted vegetation index 2 (MSAVI2)) across buffers of 100 m, 300 m, and 500 m; 2) surrounding green space across 300 m and 500 m buffers; and 3) Euclidean distance to the nearest green space. Our outcome was self-reported hypertension. We developed logistic regression models to evaluate the city-specific association between each greenspace measure and hypertension, adjusting for relevant covariates. RESULTS: One interquartile range (IQR) increase in residential distance to the nearest green space was associated with higher risk of hypertension in Barcelona [odds ratio (OR): 1.15; 95%CI 1.03-1.29 (IQR: 262.2)], but not in Brussels [OR: 0.95; 95%CI 0.77-1.17 (IQR: 215.2)]. Stratified analyses suggested stronger associations in older participants (≥65 years) for both cities. Findings for residential surrounding green space and greenspace were not conclusive. However, in Brussels, we found protective associations in older participants for both residential surrounding greenspace metrics [NDVI 300 m buffer OR: 0.51; 95%CI 0.32-0.81 (IQR: 0.21) and MSAVI2 300 m buffer OR: 0.51; 95%CI 0.32-0.83 (IQR: 0.18)]. We did not find any indication for the modification of our evaluated associations by sex and education level. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that living closer to greenspace could be associated with lower risk of hypertension, particularly in older age. Future research is needed to replicate our findings in other settings and shed light on potential underlying mechanism(s).

Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide mortality in European urban areas before and during the economic recession.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the impact of the financial crisis on inequalities in suicide mortality in European urban areas. The objective of the study was to analyse the trend in area socioeconomic inequalities in suicide mortality in nine European urban areas before and after the beginning of the financial crisis. METHODS: This ecological study of trends was based on three periods, two before the economic crisis (2000-2003, 2004-2008) and one during the crisis (2009-2014). The units of analysis were the small areas of nine European cities or metropolitan areas, with a median population ranging from 271 (Turin) to 193 630 (Berlin). For each small area and sex, we analysed smoothed standardized mortality ratios of suicide mortality and their relationship with a socioeconomic deprivation index using a hierarchical Bayesian model. RESULTS: Among men, the relative risk (RR) comparing suicide mortality of the 95th percentile value of socioeconomic deprivation (severe deprivation) to its 5th percentile value (low deprivation) were higher than 1 in Stockholm and Lisbon in the three periods. In Barcelona, the RR was 2.06 (95% credible interval: 1.24-3.21) in the first period, decreasing in the other periods. No significant changes were observed across the periods. Among women, a positive significant association was identified only in Stockholm (RR around 2 in the three periods). There were no significant changes across the periods except in London with a RR of 0.49 (95% CI: 0.35-0.68) in the third period. CONCLUSIONS: Area socioeconomic inequalities in suicide mortality did not change significantly after the onset of the crisis in the areas studied.

Progress against inequalities in mortality: register-based study of 15 European countries between 1990 and 2015.

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are a challenge for public health around the world, but appear to be resistant to policy-making. We aimed to identify European countries which have been more successful than others in narrowing inequalities in mortality, and the factors associated with narrowing inequalities. We collected and harmonised mortality data by educational level in 15 European countries over the last 25 years, and quantified changes in inequalities in mortality using a range of measures capturing different perspectives on inequality (e.g., 'relative' and 'absolute' inequalities, inequalities in 'attainment' and 'shortfall'). We determined which causes of death contributed to narrowing of inequalities, and conducted country- and period-fixed effects analyses to assess which country-level factors were associated with narrowing of inequalities in mortality. Mortality among the low educated has declined rapidly in all European countries, and a narrowing of absolute, but not relative inequalities was seen in many countries. Best performers were Austria, Italy (Turin) and Switzerland among men, and Spain (Barcelona), England and Wales, and Austria among women. Ischemic heart disease, smoking-related causes (men) and amenable causes often contributed to narrowing inequalities. Trends in income inequality, level of democracy and smoking were associated with widening inequalities, but rising health care expenditure was associated with narrowing inequalities. Trends in inequalities in mortality have not been as unfavourable as often claimed. Our results suggest that health care expansion has counteracted the inequalities widening effect of other influences.

Monitoring health inequalities when the socio-economic composition changes: are the slope and relative indices of inequality appropriate? Results of a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: The slope (SII) and relative (RII) indices of inequality are commonly recommended to monitor health inequality policies. As an upwards shift of the educational level distribution (ELD) can be part of those policies, we examine how such a shift affects the SII, the RII and the population attributable fraction (PAF). METHODS: We simulated 632 distributions of 4 educational levels (ELs) by varying the share (p1 to p4) of each EL, with constant mortality rates (MR) and calculated the corresponding RII, SII and PAF. Second, we decomposed the effect on the three indices of a change affecting both the ELD and the MRs, into the contributions of each component. RESULTS: RIIs and SIIs sharply increase with p4 at fixed p1 values and evolve as reversed U-curves for p1 changing in complement to p4. The RII reaches a maximum, at much higher p4 values than the SII. PAFs monotonically decrease when p4 increases. CONCLUSION: If improving the educational attainment is part of a policy, an upwards shift of EL should be assessed as a progress; however the RII, and to a lesser extent the SII, frequently translate an increased EL4 share as a worsening. We warn against the use of SII and RII for monitoring inequality-tackling policies at changing socio-economic structures. Rather, we recommend to complement the assessment of changes in absolute and relative pairwise differentials, with changes in PAF and in the socio-economic group shares.

Contribution of chronic conditions to gender disparities in health expectancies in Belgium, 2001, 2004 and 2008.

Background: We aimed to investigate the contribution of chronic conditions to gender differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (LED) in Belgium in 2001, 2004 and 2008. Methods: Data on disability and chronic conditions from participants of the 2001, 2004 and 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used to estimate disability prevalence by cause using the attribution method. Disability prevalence was applied to life tables to estimate DFLE and LED using the Sullivan method. Decomposition techniques were used to assess the contribution of mortality and disability and further of causes of death and disability to gender disparities in DFLE and LED. Results: Higher LE, DFLE and LED were observed for women compared with men in all years studied. A decrease in the gender gap in LE (2001: 5.9; 2004: 5.6; 2008: 5.3) was observed in our cross-sectional approach followed by a decrease in gender differences in DFLE (2001: 1.9; 2004: 1.3; 2008: 0.5) and increase in LED (2001: 4.0; 2004: 4.4; 2008: 4.8). The higher LED in women was attributed to their lower mortality due to lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, and external causes (2001 and 2004) and higher disability prevalence due to musculoskeletal conditions (2008). Higher DFLE was observed in women owing to their lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, digestive cancer and chronic respiratory diseases. Conclusion: To promote healthy ageing of populations, priority should be given to reduce the LED disadvantage in women by targeting non-fatal diseases, such as musculoskeletal conditions.

Health risks in the cleaning industry: a Belgian census-linked mortality study (1991-2011).

PURPOSE: Cleaning work has been associated with a wide range of occupational health hazards. However, little is known about mortality risks in the cleaning industry. This study examines differences in cause-specific mortality between cleaners, manual and non-manual workers. METHODS: Using exhaustive census-linked mortality data, the total Belgian working population aged 30-60 was selected from the 1991 census. Analyses were based on 202,339 male and 58,592 female deaths between 1 March 1991 and 31 December 2011. Standardized Mortality Ratios were calculated and indirectly adjusted for smoking (SMR). In addition, Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to account for age, educational level, part-time employment and marital status. RESULTS: Large mortality differences were observed between cleaners, manual and non-manual workers. In 2001-2011, smoking-adjusted SMRs for all-cause mortality were higher among cleaners than among non-manual workers (Men 1.25 CI 1.22-1.28; women 1.10 CI 1.07-1.13). SMRs also show cleaners had significantly more deaths due to COPD (men 2.13 CI 1.92-2.37; women 2.03 CI 1.77-2.31); lung cancer (men 1.31 CI 1.22-1.39; women 1.21 CI 1.11-1.32); pneumonia (men 1.64 CI 1.35-1.97; women 1.31 CI 1.00-1.68); ischaemic heart diseases (men 1.22 CI 1.13-1.31; women 1.40 CI 1.25-1.57) and cerebrovascular diseases (men 1.19 CI 1.05-1.35; women 1.13 CI 1.00-1.27). Mortality risks among cleaners remained elevated after adjustment for education. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality is considerably higher for male and female cleaners than for non-manual workers.

Contribution of chronic conditions to smoking differences in life expectancy with and without disability in Belgium.

Background: Smoking is the leading cause of premature mortality and morbidity. This study aimed at assessing the impact of smoking on life expectancy (LE) and LE with (LED) and without disability (DFLE). We further estimated the contribution of disability and mortality and their causes to differences in LED and DFLE by smoking. Methods: Data on disability, chronic conditions, and smoking from 17 148 participants of the 1997, 2001, 2004 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were used to estimate causes of disability using the attribution method. A 10-year mortality follow-up of survey participants was used. The Sullivan method was applied to estimate LED and DFLE. The contribution of disability and mortality and of causes of disability and death to smoking differences in LED and DFLE was assessed using decomposition methods. Results: Never smokers live longer than daily smokers. DFLE advantage at age 15 of +8.5/+4.3 years (y) in men/women never compared with daily smokers was the result of lower mortality (+6.2y/+3y) and lower disability (2.3y/1.3y). The extra 0.3y/1.6y LED in never smokers was due to lower mortality (+2.6y/+2.9y) and lower disability (-2.3y/-1.3y). Lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, chronic respiratory, and ischaemic heart diseases was the main contributor to higher LED and DFLE in never smokers. Lower disability from musculoskeletal conditions in men and chronic respiratory diseases in women increased LED and DFLE in never smokers. Conclusions: Mortality and disability advantage among never smokers contributed to longer DFLE, while mortality advantage contributed to their longer LED.

Does air pollution trigger suicide? A case-crossover analysis of suicide deaths over the life span.

In addition to underlying health disorders and socio-economic or community factors, air pollution may trigger suicide mortality. This study evaluates the association between short-term variation in air pollution and 10 years of suicide mortality in Belgium. In a bidirectional time-stratified case-crossover design, 20,533 suicide deaths registered between January 1st 2002 and December 31st 2011 were matched by temperature with control days from the same month and year. We used municipality-level air pollution [particulate matter (PM10) and O3 concentrations] data and meteorology data. We applied conditional logistic regression models adjusted for duration of sunshine and day of the week to obtain odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CI for an increase of 10 µg/m3 in pollutant concentrations over different lag periods (lag 0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6 days). Effect modification by season and age was investigated by including interaction terms. We observed significant associations of PM10 and O3 with suicide during summer (OR ranging from 1.02 to 1.07, p-values <0.05). For O3, significant associations were also observed during spring and autumn. Age significantly modified the associations with PM10, with statistically significant associations observed only among 5-14 year old children (lag 0-6: OR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.03-2.04) and ≥85 years old (e.g. lag 0-4: OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.06-1.29). Recent increases in outdoor air pollutants such as PM10 or O3 can trigger suicide, particularly during warm periods, even at concentrations below the European thresholds. Furthermore, PM10 may have strong trigger effects among children and elderly population.

Suicide mortality in Belgium at the beginning of the 21st century: differences according to migrant background.

Background: Suicidal behaviour has long been recognized to vary widely between countries. Yet, rates of suicidal behaviour do not only vary between, but also within countries. Gender and socioeconomic differences in suicidal behaviour are well established, but the literature on suicidal behaviour and migrants is sparse, particularly in Belgium. The present study maps out the occurrence of suicide mortality across three of the largest migrant groups (Italians, Turks and Moroccans) versus the native population in Belgium, and verifies whether this association persists after accounting for socioeconomic variables. Methods: Census-linked mortality follow-up data covering the period 2001­2011 were used to probe into suicide mortality. To compare absolute differences by migrant background, indirect standardisation analyses were carried out. To assess relative differences, Cox proportional hazards models were performed. Analyses were restricted to 18- to 64-year-olds. Results: Belgian men and women have the highest suicide mortality risk, persons of Moroccan/Turkish origin the lowest, and Italians are somewhere in between. When migration generation is considered, the risk is higher for second-generation groups compared to that of the first-generation. Accounting for socioeconomic determinants, the difference between the native population and the various nationality groups intensifies. Conclusion: Although the risk is generally lower for minorities compared to the majority population, the results across migration generations underscore minorities' increased vulnerability to suicide over time. Future research should focus on understanding the risks and protective factors of suicidal behaviour across different nationality groups. This way, tailored policy recommendations can be developed in order to tackle the burden of suicide.

'Fundamental causes' of inequalities in mortality: an empirical test of the theory in 20 European populations.

The 'fundamental causes' theory stipulates that when new opportunities for lowering mortality arise, higher socioeconomic groups will benefit more because of their greater material and non-material resources. We tested this theory using harmonised mortality data by educational level for 22 causes of death and 20 European populations from the period 1980-2010. Across all causes and populations, mortality on average declined by 2.49 per cent (95%CI: 2.04-2.92), 1.83% (1.37-2.30) and 1.34% (0.89-1.78) per annum among the high, mid and low educated, respectively. In 69 per cent of cases of declining mortality, mortality declined faster among the high than among the low educated. However, when mortality increased, less increase among the high educated was found in only 46 per cent of cases. Faster mortality decline among the high educated was more manifest for causes of death amenable to intervention than for non-amenable causes. The difference in mortality decline between education groups was not larger when income inequalities were greater. While our results provide support for the fundamental causes theory, our results suggest that other mechanisms than the theory implies also play a role.

Trends in site- and sex-specific cancer mortality between 1979 and 2010 in Belgium compared with Europe using WHO data.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality constitutes a major health burden in Europe. Trends are different for men and women, and across Europe. This study aims to map out Belgian cancer mortality trends for the most common cancer types in both sexes between 1979 and 2010, and to link these with trends in cancer mortality and smoking prevalence across Europe. METHODS: Mortality and population data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization using the European Standard Population. RESULTS: Belgian mortality decreased for the most common cancer sites between 1979 and 2010, except for female lung cancer. Yet, Belgian male lung and female breast cancer rates remain high compared with the remainder of Western Europe. For some cancer sites, mortality trends are similar among the European Regions (e.g. stomach cancer), yet for others trends are divergent (e.g. colorectal cancer). CONCLUSIONS: Generally, cancer mortality shows a favorable trend in Belgium and Europe. Yet, female lung cancer mortality rates are increasing in Belgium. Furthermore, Belgium still has higher male lung and female breast cancer mortality rates compared with the European regional averages. Considering this and the current smoking prevalence, enduring tobacco control efforts should be made.

Inequalities in Alcohol-Related Mortality in 17 European Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Mortality Registers.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol-related mortality have been documented in several European countries, but it is unknown whether the magnitude of these inequalities differs between countries and whether these inequalities increase or decrease over time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected and harmonized data on mortality from four alcohol-related causes (alcoholic psychosis, dependence, and abuse; alcoholic cardiomyopathy; alcoholic liver cirrhosis; and accidental poisoning by alcohol) by age, sex, education level, and occupational class in 20 European populations from 17 different countries, both for a recent period and for previous points in time, using data from mortality registers. Mortality was age-standardized using the European Standard Population, and measures for both relative and absolute inequality between low and high socioeconomic groups (as measured by educational level and occupational class) were calculated. Rates of alcohol-related mortality are higher in lower educational and occupational groups in all countries. Both relative and absolute inequalities are largest in Eastern Europe, and Finland and Denmark also have very large absolute inequalities in alcohol-related mortality. For example, for educational inequality among Finnish men, the relative index of inequality is 3.6 (95% CI 3.3-4.0) and the slope index of inequality is 112.5 (95% CI 106.2-118.8) deaths per 100,000 person-years. Over time, the relative inequality in alcohol-related mortality has increased in many countries, but the main change is a strong rise of absolute inequality in several countries in Eastern Europe (Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia) and Northern Europe (Finland, Denmark) because of a rapid rise in alcohol-related mortality in lower socioeconomic groups. In some of these countries, alcohol-related causes now account for 10% or more of the socioeconomic inequality in total mortality. Because our study relies on routinely collected underlying causes of death, it is likely that our results underestimate the true extent of the problem. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-related conditions play an important role in generating inequalities in total mortality in many European countries. Countering increases in alcohol-related mortality in lower socioeconomic groups is essential for reducing inequalities in mortality. Studies of why such increases have not occurred in countries like France, Switzerland, Spain, and Italy can help in developing evidence-based policies in other European countries.

The contribution of national disparities to international differences in mortality between the United States and 7 European countries.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined to what extent the higher mortality in the United States compared to many European countries is explained by larger social disparities within the United States. We estimated the expected US mortality if educational disparities in the United States were similar to those in 7 European countries. METHODS: Poisson models were used to quantify the association between education and mortality for men and women aged 30 to 74 years in the United States, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland for the period 1989 to 2003. US data came from the National Health Interview Survey linked to the National Death Index and the European data came from censuses linked to national mortality registries. RESULTS: If people in the United States had the same distribution of education as their European counterparts, the US mortality disadvantage would be larger. However, if educational disparities in mortality within the United States equaled those within Europe, mortality differences between the United States and Europe would be reduced by 20% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Larger educational disparities in mortality in the United States than in Europe partly explain why US adults have higher mortality than their European counterparts. Policies to reduce mortality among the lower educated will be necessary to bridge the mortality gap between the United States and European countries.

Contribution of chronic diseases to the disability burden in a population 15 years and older, Belgium, 1997-2008.

BACKGROUND: Age-associated disability reduces quality of life in older populations and leads to wide-range implications for social and health policy. The identification of diseases that contribute to the disability burden is crucial to the development of prevention and intervention strategies to reduce disability. In this study, we assessed the contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of disability in Belgium. METHODS: Data from 35,837 individuals aged 15 years or older who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were used. Disability was defined as difficulties in doing at least one of six activities of daily living (transfer in and out of bed, transfer in and out of chair, dressing, washing hands and face, feeding, and going to the toilet) and/or mobility limitations (ability to walk without stopping less than 200 m). Multiple additive regression models were fitted separately for men and women to estimate the age-specific background disability rate (experienced by everyone, independent of the presence of specific diseases) and disease-specific disability rates (disability rate in subjects who reported selected chronic diseases). RESULTS: Musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases were the main contributors to the disability burden in Belgium. Musculoskeletal diseases were the most prevalent diseases in men and women in all age groups. Neurological diseases and stroke were the most disabling diseases, i.e. caused the highest level of disability among the diseased individuals, in all age groups for men and women, respectively. Back pain was the main cause of disability in men aged 15 to 64 years, while heart attack was the major contributor to the disability prevalence in men aged 65 or older. Likewise, arthritis was the main cause of disability among women across all age groups. Depression was also an important contributor in young subjects (15-54 years). Cancer was not an important contributor to the disability prevalence in Belgium. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce the burden of disability in Belgium, interventions should target musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases especially among elderly. Furthermore, attention should also be given to depression in young individuals.

Obesity and the potential reduction of social inequalities in mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

BACKGROUND: Obesity contributes considerably to the problem of health inequalities in many countries, but quantitative estimates of this contribution and to what extent it is modifiable are scarce. We identify the potential for reducing educational inequalities in all-cause and obesity-related mortality in 21 European populations, by modifying educational differences in obesity and overweight. METHODS: Prevalence data and mortality data come from 21 European populations. Mortality rate ratios come from literature reviews. We use the population attributable fraction (PAF) to estimate the impact of scenario-based changes in the social distribution of obesity on educational inequalities in mortality. RESULTS: An elimination of differences in obesity between educational groups would decrease relative inequality in all-cause mortality between those with high and low education by up to 12% for men and 42% for women. About half of the relative inequality in mortality could be reduced for some causes of death in several countries, often in southern Europe. Absolute inequalities in all-cause mortality would be reduced by up to 69 (men) and 67 (women) deaths per 100,000 person-years. CONCLUSION: The potential reduction of health inequality by an elimination of social inequalities in obesity might be substantial. The reductions differ by country, cause of death and gender, suggesting that the priority given to obesity as an entry-point for tackling health inequalities should differ between countries and gender.