Estimating the Intracluster Correlation Coefficient for the Clinical Sign "Trachomatous Inflammation-Follicular" in Population-Based Trachoma Prevalence Surveys: Results From a Meta-Regression Analysis of 261 Standardized Preintervention Surveys Carried Out in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Sample sizes in cluster surveys must be greater than those in surveys using simple random sampling in order to obtain similarly precise prevalence estimates, because results from subjects examined in the same cluster cannot be assumed to be independent. Therefore, a crucial aspect of cluster sampling is estimation of the intracluster correlation coefficient (ρ): the degree of relatedness of outcomes in a given cluster, defined as the proportion of total variance accounted for by between-cluster variation. In infectious disease epidemiology, this coefficient is related to transmission patterns and the natural history of infection; its value also depends on particulars of survey design. Estimation of ρ is often difficult due to the lack of comparable survey data with which to calculate summary estimates. Here we use a parametric bootstrap model to estimate ρ for the ocular clinical sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF) among children aged 1-9 years within population-based trachoma prevalence surveys. We present results from a meta-regression analysis of data from 261 such surveys completed using standardized methods in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria in 2012-2015. Consistent with the underlying theory, we found that ρ increased with increasing overall TF prevalence and smaller numbers of children examined per cluster. Estimates of ρ for TF were independently higher in Ethiopia than in the other countries.

Understanding the spatial distribution of trichiasis and its association with trachomatous inflammation-follicular.

BACKGROUND: Whilst previous work has identified clustering of the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF), there is limited understanding of the spatial structure of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), the rarer, end-stage, blinding form of disease. Here we use community-level TF prevalence, information on access to water and sanitation, and large-scale environmental and socio-economic indicators to model the spatial variation in community-level TT prevalence in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda. METHODS: We fit binomial mixed models, with community-level random effects, separately for each country. In countries where spatial correlation was detected through a semi-variogram diagnostic check we then fitted a geostatistical model to the TT prevalence data including TF prevalence as an explanatory variable. RESULTS: The estimated regression relationship between community-level TF and TT was significant in eight countries. We estimate that a 10% increase in community-level TF prevalence leads to an increase in the odds for TT ranging from 20 to 86% when accounting for additional covariates. CONCLUSION: We find evidence of an association between TF and TT in some parts of Africa. However, our results also suggest the presence of additional, country-specific, spatial risk factors which modulate the variation in TT risk.

Optimizing Trichiasis Case Finding to Attain the Elimination of Trachoma as a Public Health Problem.

BACKGROUND: As national trachoma programmes increase efforts to reduce the burden of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), TT case finding and referral are critical public health programme components. Our research aimed to explore the most effective and efficient approaches to finding, referring, and managing TT cases. METHODS: This was a prospective descriptive study, utilizing both routine programme data and primary data collection. This study compared four different approaches to finding TT cases across three different local government areas (LGAs) in Kano State, Nigeria. Each of the study LGAs was divided into four sub-units to accommodate the four different approaches. RESULTS: The number of outreach attendees was 4795 across the four case finding approaches, and this varied hugely, with the smallest number and proportion (403, 0.26%) in settings only employing house-to-house case finding and the largest number and proportion (1901, 0.99%) when town criers were used. That said, the proportion of TT cases among people presenting at outreach was highest (32.5%) when house-to-house case finding was used and lowest (10.3%) when town criers were used. More female TT patients were found (53-70%) and had surgery (79-85%) compared to male cases, across all approaches. The average project expenditure for finding one TT case was similar for approaches that included house-to-house case finding (USD 5.4-6.3), while it was 3.5 times higher (USD 21.5 per TT case found) when town criers were used. DISCUSSION: This study found that the house-to-house TT case finding approaches were the most efficient method with the highest yield of TT cases. Including other eye condition and/or vision testing yielded similar results but required more personnel and cost.

Accuracy, acceptability and feasibility of photography for use in trachoma surveys: a mixed methods study in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Photography could be used to train individuals to diagnose trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) as trachoma prevalence decreases and to ensure accurate field TF grading in trachoma prevalence surveys. We compared photograph and field TF grading and determined the acceptability and feasibility of eyelid photography to community members and trachoma survey trainers. METHODS: A total of 100 children ages 1-9 y were examined for TF in two Maasai villages in Tanzania. Two images of the right everted superior tarsal conjunctiva of each child were taken with a smartphone and a digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera. Two graders independently graded all photos. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members and Tropical Data trainers. RESULTS: Of 391 photos, one-fifth were discarded as ungradable. Compared with field grading, photo grading consistently underdiagnosed TF. Compared with field grading, DSLR photo grading resulted in a higher prevalence and sensitivity than smartphone photo grading. FGDs indicated that communities and trainers found photography acceptable and preferred smartphones to DSLR in terms of practicalities, but image quality was of paramount importance for trainers. CONCLUSIONS: Photography is acceptable and feasible, but further work is needed to ensure high-quality images that enable accurate and consistent grading before being routinely implemented in trachoma surveys.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Four Evaluation Units in Yemen after Implementation of Trachoma Elimination Measures.

BACKGROUND: In baseline trachoma prevalence surveys, six districts in two governorates of Yemen were identified as requiring interventions. We set out to estimate the prevalence of trachoma 6-12 months after one round of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) and implementation of measures to encourage facial cleanliness. METHODS: A population-based prevalence survey was conducted in each of the four evaluation units in October 2019. Contemporary World Health Organization recommendations for trachoma surveys were followed. Participants were selected using a two-stage cluster sampling process. The prevalence of inflammatory and late-stage trachoma was measured through eye examination. Water, sanitation, and hygiene facility access among visited households was estimated. RESULTS: The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-,follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds per EU was <5.0% in three EUs (Al Mighlaf, Al Munirah, and As Salif; Az Zaydiyah; and Mudhaykhirah districts) and 5.0-9.9% in one EU (Far Al Udayn District). The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds per EU was <0.2% in all four EUs. Per EU, the proportion of households with an improved drinking water source ranged from 40% to 100%; access to an improved drinking water source within 30-minute return journey of the household ranged from 45% to 100%; and with an improved latrine ranged from 32% to 83%. CONCLUSION: An additional round of antibiotic MDA should be administered in Far Al Udayn district before it is resurveyed. In the other surveyed districts, pre-validation surveillance surveys should be conducted in 2 years' time to determine if the TF prevalence <5% has been maintained.

Trachoma Prevalence in Four Localities of Darfur Region, Sudan, following One Round of Antibiotic Mass Drug Administration.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds and of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in ≥15-year-olds in four endemic evaluation units (EUs) of Darfur region, Sudan, was measured more than a year after the required single round of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA). METHODS: Surveys were conducted using highly standardised, World Health Organization-recommended methodologies. Individuals aged ≥1 year, resident in selected households, were chosen for the survey using a two-stage cluster sampling process. Consenting adults and children were examined for the signs TF and TT by graders trained to international standards. Prevalence of disease in key indicator groups was calculated and weighted to the underlying population structure. RESULTS: A mean of 1,415 (range: 1,253-1,611) children aged 1-9 years were examined in each EU. The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds in each of the four surveyed EUs was <5%. A mean of 1,139 people aged ≥15 years (range: 1,080-1,201) were examined in each EU. The estimated age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in all four EUs. In general, the proportion of households with access to improved WASH facilities was generally lower in this study than in corresponding baseline studies. CONCLUSIONS: No further MDA should be conducted in these four EUs for the next 2 years, at which point they should be re-surveyed to determine whether the prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds has remained <5%. Active TT case-finding is also not indicated. Environmental improvement and promotion of facial cleanliness measures should continue to be implemented to prevent disease recrudescence.

Prevalence of Trachoma in 72 Districts of Afghanistan in 2018-2019: Results of 35 Population-based Prevalence Surveys.

BACKGROUND: To determine where interventions are needed to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem, prevalence data are needed. We aimed to generate baseline population-based data on trachoma prevalence in suspected-endemic areas of Afghanistan. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based prevalence surveys designed according to World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations were conducted in 35 evaluation units (EUs) covering 72 districts. In selected households, all resident individuals aged ≥1 year were examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) according to the WHO simplified trachoma grading system. Water, sanitation and hygiene access was assessed in households of survey participants. RESULTS: 104,104 people aged ≥1 year were examined, including 43,774 children aged 1-9 years and 46,439 people aged ≥15 years. The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was ≥5% in 3 EUs, with the highest EU TF prevalence being 7.8%. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in all EUs. The majority of households had access to an improved water source within 30 minutes of the house. However, only a minority of households had an improved latrine and/or a handwash station. CONCLUSIONS: Trachoma is not a public health problem in the majority of EUs surveyed. However, antibiotic mass drug administration, promotion of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement (the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy) are needed for trachoma elimination purposes in three of the EUs surveyed in Afghanistan.

Prevalence of Trachoma from 66 Impact Surveys in 52 Woredas of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' and Sidama Regions of Ethiopia, 2017-2019.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is endemic in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) and Sidama regions of Ethiopia. We aimed to measure the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children aged 1 - 9 years and the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system among people aged ≥15 years following interventions for trachoma in 52 woredas of SNNP and Sidama regions. METHODS: From 2017 - 2019, 66 two-stage cluster sampling cross-sectional population-based surveys were carried out in 52 woredas (third-level administrative divisions) using a standardized World Health Organization-recommended survey methodology. This included one impact survey in 40 woredas, two consecutive impact surveys in 10 woredas and three consecutive impact surveys in two woredas. Water, sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) access was assessed using a modified version of the United Nations Children's Fund/WHO Joint Monitoring Programme questionnaire. RESULTS: By the end of this survey series, 15 (23%) of the woredas had met the active trachoma elimination threshold (TF prevalence <5%) and 12 (18%) had met the TT threshold (TT ≤ 0.2%). Regarding WASH coverage, 20% of households had access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-min journey and 3% had an improved latrine. There was strong evidence that TF was less common in 4 - 6-year-olds and 7 - 9-year-olds than 1 - 3-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings, further antibiotic mass drug administration is required in 37 woredas and active TT case finding is needed in 40 woredas. In these surveys, access to WASH facilities was very low; WASH improvements are required.

Impact of personal protective equipment on the clarity of vision among trachoma survey graders and trichiasis surgeons in the context of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the use of personal protective equipment for those involved in trachoma survey grading and trichiasis surgery. We sought to determine which configuration of a face shield would be less likely to impact grading accuracy and ability to conduct trichiasis surgery. The research also included assessment of comfort, ease of cleaning and robustness. METHODS: There were three research phases. In phase 1, assessment of four potential face shield configurations was undertaken with principal trachoma graders and trichiasis surgeon trainers to decide which two options should undergo further testing. In phase 2, clarity of vision and comfort (in a classroom environment) of the two configurations were assessed compared with no face shield (control), while grading trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). The second phase also included the assessment of impact of the configurations while performing trichiasis surgery using a training model. In phase 3, face shield ease of use was evaluated during routine surgical programmes. RESULTS: In phase 2, 124 trachoma graders and 28 trichiasis surgeons evaluated the 2 face shield configurations selected in phase 1. TF agreement was high (kappa=0.83 and 0.82) for both configurations compared with not wearing a face shield. Comfort was reported as good by 51% and 32% of graders using the two configurations. Trichiasis skill scores were similar for both configurations. CONCLUSION: The face shield configuration that includes a cut-out for mounting the 2.5× magnifying loupes does not appear to impact the ability or comfort of trachoma graders or trichiasis surgeons to carry out their work.

Prevalence of trachoma in Somali region, Ethiopia: results from trachoma impact surveys in 50 woredas.

BACKGROUND: Following interventions to eliminate trachoma in Somali region, Ethiopia, we aimed to re-estimate the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) and trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) at woreda level and identify the factors associated with the disease. METHODS: We implemented cross-sectional community-based surveys in 50 trachoma-endemic woredas, using a standardized survey. Households were the secondary sampling unit. Surveys were undertaken through a combination of interviews of household heads and direct inspection of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) access, plus clinical evaluation of eligible household members for TT and TF. RESULTS: Overall, 41 (82%) of the 50 woredas had met the WHO-recommended active trachoma elimination threshold (prevalence of TF <5% in 1-9-y-olds) and 42 (84%) had met the TT threshold (prevalence of TT unknown to the health system <0.2% in ≥15-y-olds). Only 18% of households had access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-min trip and only 25% had an improved latrine. CONCLUSIONS: Additional rounds of antibiotic mass drug administration, plus interventions to enhance facial cleanliness and improve the environment, are required in nine woredas. TT surgical campaigns are needed in eight woredas. Greater access to WASH is required across all the woredas that were surveyed.

Prevalence of Trachoma after Implementation of Trachoma Elimination Interventions in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: Results of Impact Surveys in 131 Evaluation Units Covering 139 Districts.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), trachomatous trichiasis (TT), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) access in 131 evaluation units (EUs) after implementation of trachoma elimination interventions in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. METHODOLOGY: A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in each EU using the World Health Organization-recommended two-stage cluster-sampling methodology. Twenty-six clusters, each with a mean of 30 households were enumerated in each EU. All residents aged ≥1 year in selected households were examined for TF and TT. Information on WASH access in surveyed households was also collected through questioning the household head and direct observation. RESULTS: A total of 419,858 individuals were enumerated in 131 EUs, of whom 396,134 (94%) were examined, 54% being female. Age-adjusted EU-level prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years ranged from 0.15% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0-0.4) to 37.5% (95% CI: 31.1-43.7). The TF prevalence was <5% in 73/131 (56%) EUs. The EU-level age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system among people aged ≥15 years ranged from 0.001% (95% CI: 0.00-0.02) to 2.2% (95% CI: 1.1-3.1) with 37/131 (28%) EUs having a prevalence <0.2%. Only 48% of all households surveyed had access to improved water sources for drinking. Approximately 96% of households did not have an improved latrine. CONCLUSION: Oromia is on the path towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Pre-validation Surveillance Surveys in 11 Evaluation Units (Covering 12 Districts) in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: Results from 2018-2020.

PURPOSE: Interventions to reduce the prevalence of trachoma and transmission of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis have been implemented in Oromia Region, Ethiopia. Following an impact survey in which the trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence in 1-9-year-olds is <5%, a surveillance survey is recommended 2 years later, without additional antibiotic treatment. We report results of surveillance surveys in 11 evaluation units (EUs) covering 12 districts in Oromia Region, to plan whether future interventions are needed. METHOD: We use a two-stage cluster-sampling cross-sectional survey design. In each EU, 26 clusters (villages) were systematically selected with probability proportional to size; from each cluster, 30 households were selected using compact segment sampling. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) access was assessed in all selected households. All residents of selected households aged ≥1 year were examined for TF and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) by certified graders. RESULT: Of 31,991 individuals enumerated, 29,230 (91% of) individuals were examined. Eight EUs had an age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds of ≥5% and seven had a TT prevalence unknown to the health system among adults aged ≥15 years of ≥0.2%. About one-third of visited households had access to an improved water source for drinking, and 5% had access to an improved latrine. CONCLUSION: Despite TF reductions to <5% at impact survey, prevalence recrudesced to ≥5% in all but three of the 11 EUs. Operational research is needed to understand transmission dynamics and epidemiology, in order to optimise elimination strategies in high-transmission settings like these.

Gender differences in the surgical management of trachomatous trichiasis: an exploratory analysis of global trachoma survey data, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is a painful, potentially blinding eye condition that can be managed through epilation or surgery. Women are affected by TT approximately twice as often as men and are believed to face gendered barriers to receiving surgical care to prevent vision loss. METHODS: We used data from 817 cross-sectional surveys conducted during 2015-2019 in 20 African countries to estimate the prevalence difference (PD) between female and male eyes for four outcomes potentially indicating gender-related differences in TT management: (1) received surgery and developed postoperative TT (PTT), (2) never offered surgery, (3) offered surgery but declined it, and (4) offered epilation but never offered surgery. RESULTS: The prevalence was modestly elevated among female eyes compared with male eyes for having PTT (PD:1.8 [95% confidence limits (CL): 0.6, 3.0]) and having declined surgery for the eye (PD: 6.2 [95% CL: 1.8, 10.7]). The proportion offered epilation was similar by gender (PD:0.5 [95% CL: -0.4, 1.3]), while never having been offered surgery was somewhat more prevalent among male eyes (PD: -2.1 [95% CL: -3.5, -0.7]). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest potential gender differences in TT management. More research is needed to determine the causes and implications of the observed differences.

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: As the prevalences of neglected tropical diseases reduce to low levels in some countries, policymakers require precise disease estimates to decide whether the set public health targets have been met. At low prevalence levels, traditional statistical methods produce imprecise estimates. More modern geospatial statistical methods can deliver the required level of precision for accurate decision-making. METHODS: Using spatially referenced data from 3567 cluster locations in Ethiopia in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, we developed a geostatistical model to estimate the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis and to calculate the probability that the trachomatous trichiasis component of the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has already been achieved for each of 482 evaluation units. We also compared the precision of traditional and geostatistical approaches by the ratios of the lengths of their 95% predictive intervals. RESULTS: The elimination threshold of trachomatous trichiasis (prevalence ≤ 0.2% in individuals aged ≥15 years) is met with a probability of 0.9 or more in 8 out of the 482 evaluation units assessed, and with a probability of ≤0.1 in 469 evaluation units. For the remaining five evaluation units, the probability of elimination is between 0.45 and 0.65. Prevalence estimates were, on average, 10 times more precise than estimates obtained using the traditional approach. CONCLUSIONS: By accounting for and exploiting spatial correlation in the prevalence data, we achieved remarkably improved precision of prevalence estimates compared with the traditional approach. The geostatistical approach also delivers predictions for unsampled evaluation units that are geographically close to sampled evaluation units.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, after Implementation of the SAFE Strategy: Results of Four Population-Based Surveys.

PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds in Benishangul Gumuz (BGZ) region, Ethiopia. This will help to assess progress towards the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem and determine the need for future interventions against trachoma in the region. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based trachoma prevalence surveys were conducted in four evaluation units (EUs) of BGZ using World Health Organization-recommended survey methodologies. Individuals were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. Household access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities (WaSH) was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 11,778 people aged ≥1 year were examined. The prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was <5% in three EUs and ≥5% in one EU. The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15-years was ≥0.2% in all four EUs. The proportion of households with an improved drinking water source within a 30-minute round-trip ranged from 27-60%. The proportion of households with an improved latrine ranged from <1-6%. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical interventions for TT are required in all EUs in BGZ. One annual round of mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin is required in one EU before resurvey to reassess progress in lowering TF prevalence below the WHO elimination threshold of 5% in 1-9-year-olds. MDA should be stopped in the other three EUs and trachoma surveillance surveys should be conducted at least 24 months after the surveys described here. Ongoing strengthening of WaSH infrastructure may help sustain the low prevalence of trachoma.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Pakistan: Results of 42 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

Purpose: Previous phases of trachoma mapping in Pakistan completed baseline surveys in 38 districts. To help guide national trachoma elimination planning, we set out to estimate trachoma prevalence in 43 suspected-endemic evaluation units (EUs) of 15 further districts.Methods: We planned a population-based trachoma prevalence survey in each EU. Two-stage cluster sampling was employed, using the systems and approaches of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. In each EU, residents aged ≥1 year living in 30 households in each of 26 villages were invited to be examined by trained, certified trachoma graders. Questionnaires and direct observation were used to evaluate household-level access to water and sanitation.Results: One EU was not completed due to insecurity. Of the remaining 42, three EUs had trichiasis prevalence estimates in ≥15-year-olds ≥0.2%, and six (different) EUs had prevalence estimates of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds ≥5%; each EU requires trichiasis and TF prevalence estimates below these thresholds to achieve elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. All six EUs with TF prevalences ≥5% were in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Household-level access to improved sanitation ranged by EU from 6% to 100%. Household-level access to an improved source of water for face and hand washing ranged by EU from 37% to 100%.Conclusion: Trachoma was a public health problem in 21% (9/42) of the EUs. Because the current outbreak of extremely drug-resistant typhoid in Pakistan limits domestic use of azithromycin mass drug administration, other interventions against active trachoma should be considered here.

Optimising age adjustment of trichiasis prevalence estimates using data from 162 standardised surveys from seven regions of Ethiopia.

PURPOSE: The prevalence of trichiasis is higher in females and increases markedly with age. Surveys carried out in the daytime, particularly in developing countries, are prone to find older individuals and females at home at the time of the survey. Population-level trichiasis estimates should adjust sample proportions to reflect the demographic breakdown of the population, although the most accurate method of doing this is unclear. METHODS: Having obtained data from 162 surveys carried out in Ethiopia as part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project from 2012 to 2015, we used internal validation with both Brier and Logarithmic forecast scoring to test stratification models to identify those models with the highest predictive accuracy. Selection of partitions was undertaken by both simple random sampling (SRS) and cluster sampling (CS) over 8192 selections. RESULTS: A total of 4529 (1.9%) cases of trichiasis were identified from 241,139 individuals aged ≥15 years from a total of 4210 kebeles and 122,090 households visited. Overall, the binning method using 5-year bands from age 15 to 69 years, with coarser binning in 20-year age-bands above this age, provided the best predictive accuracy, in both SRS and CS methodologies and for both the Brier and Logarithmic scoring rules. CONCLUSION: The greatest predictive accuracy for trichiasis estimates was found by adjusting for sex and in 5-year age-bands from the age of 15 to 69 years and in 20-year age-bands in those aged 70 years and greater. Trichiasis surveys attempting to make population-level inferences should use this method to optimise surgery backlog estimates.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Epidemiology of trachoma and its implications for implementing the "SAFE" strategy in Somali Region, Ethiopia: results of 14 population-based prevalence surveys.

PURPOSE: Ethiopia is highly trachoma endemic. Baseline mapping was needed in Ethiopia's Somali Region to guide elimination efforts. METHODS: Cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in 34 suspected trachoma-endemic woredas, grouped as 14 evaluation units (EUs), using a standardised mapping methodology developed for the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. RESULTS: In total, 53,467 individuals were enumerated. A total of 48,058 (89.9%) were present at the time of survey teams' visits and consented to examination. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children aged 1-9 years ranged from 4.1% in the EU covering Danot, Boh, and Geladin woredas in Doolo Subzone to 38.1% in the EU covering Kebribeyah and Hareshen woredas in Fafan Subzone (East). The trichiasis prevalence among adults aged over 15 years varied from 0.1% in the EU covering Afder, Bare, and Dolobay woredas in Afder Subzone (West) to 1.2% in the EU covering Awbere in Fafan Subzone (West). CONCLUSION: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is needed in 13 EUs (population 2,845,818). Two EUs (population 667,599) had TF prevalences in 1-9-year-olds of ≥30% and will require at least 5 years of MDA; 5 EUs (population 1,1193,032) had TF prevalences of 10-29.9% and need at least three years of MDA; 6 EUs (population 985,187) had TF prevalences of 5-9.9% and need at least one round of azithromycin distribution before re-survey. In all 13 of these EUs, implementation of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement measures is also needed. Surveys are still needed in the remaining 34 unmapped woredas of Somali Region.