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2.
Intern Med J ; 54(2): 337-341, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38350659

RESUMO

The changing phenotype of coronarvirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may quickly render guideline-recommended interventions obsolete. We developed a 40-question clinician survey in consultation with the Australasian COVID-19 Trial site investigators. The survey was designed to assess clinician perceptions of the current treatment strategies and future research priorities in the management of non-critically ill patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection. There were 84 complete responses from predominantly Australian and New Zealand clinicians. The perceived prevalence of patients with incidental COVID-19, nosocomial infection, underlying illness exacerbated by COVID-19, and/or immunocompromised status suggests new populations to target. The results highlighted clinician interest in antiviral therapies for future research in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised cohorts. These survey results underscore the need for ongoing surveillance of COVID-19 disease phenotypes and clinician and patient priorities for future research.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Austrália/epidemiologia , Hospitais , Pesquisa
3.
Eur Respir J ; 61(6)2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37080572

RESUMO

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination and pre-elimination, with thresholds of 1 and 10 incident cases per million population, respectively, were considered achievable for low TB incidence countries in the 1990s, when they were conceived. However, it has since become clear that, even in low TB incidence settings with effective programmes and sufficient resources, achieving pre-elimination in the next decade will require a dramatic acceleration of efforts. In this review, we describe the history of the TB elimination concept and existing country experiences, as well as the interventions available to accelerate the progress towards this threshold. We then propose a framework for near-term progress towards the more aspirational goal of TB pre-elimination. This framework consists of five stages (high incidence, moderate incidence, low incidence, nearing pre-elimination and pre-elimination) that are benchmarked to specific levels of TB incidence in each country. Using this framework, countries can set 5-year targets of achieving certain reductions in TB incidence and/or reaching the next stage, through the use of strategies tailored to both local epidemiology and available organisation and infrastructure. TB elimination remains as an aspirational goal in all stages, but certain activities can be prioritised in the short term to make more rapid progress, ensure local-level buy-in and increase accountability. As TB pre-elimination is approached, certain ethical and social concerns are likely to rise in importance; these concerns are also discussed. Our aim in setting this framework is to guide clinicians, public health experts and decision makers in taking actionable next steps in the trajectory towards TB pre-elimination and elimination.


Assuntos
Antituberculosos , Tuberculose , Humanos , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Incidência , Saúde Pública
4.
Eur Respir J ; 62(5)2023 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37827576

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal cohort data of patients with tuberculosis (TB) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. In our global study, we describe long-term outcomes of patients affected by TB and COVID-19. METHODS: We collected data from 174 centres in 31 countries on all patients affected by COVID-19 and TB between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2022. Patients were followed-up until cure, death or end of cohort time. All patients had TB and COVID-19; for analysis purposes, deaths were attributed to TB, COVID-19 or both. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional risk-regression models, and the log-rank test was used to compare survival and mortality attributed to TB, COVID-19 or both. RESULTS: Overall, 788 patients with COVID-19 and TB (active or sequelae) were recruited from 31 countries, and 10.8% (n=85) died during the observation period. Survival was significantly lower among patients whose death was attributed to TB and COVID-19 versus those dying because of either TB or COVID-19 alone (p<0.001). Significant adjusted risk factors for TB mortality were higher age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07), HIV infection (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.02-5.16) and invasive ventilation (HR 4.28, 95% CI 2.34-7.83). For COVID-19 mortality, the adjusted risks were higher age (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), male sex (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.24-3.91), oxygen requirement (HR 7.93, 95% CI 3.44-18.26) and invasive ventilation (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.36-3.53). CONCLUSIONS: In our global cohort, death was the outcome in >10% of patients with TB and COVID-19. A range of demographic and clinical predictors are associated with adverse outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Coinfecção , Infecções por HIV , Tuberculose Miliar , Humanos , Masculino , COVID-19/complicações , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Fatores de Risco , Estudos Retrospectivos
5.
CMAJ ; 195(48): E1651-E1659, 2023 Dec 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38081633

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model. We combined country-specific prevalence estimates with Canadian Census data from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to estimate the overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadian residents. RESULTS: The estimated overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born people in Canada was 25% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 20%-35%) for census year 2001, 24% (95% UI 20%-33%) for 2006, 23% (95% UI 19%-30%) for 2011, 22% (95% UI 19%-28%) for 2016 and 22% (95% UI 19%-27%) for 2021. The prevalence increased with age at migration and incidence of tuberculosis in the country of origin. In 2021, the estimated prevalence of infection among foreign-born residents was lowest in Quebec (19%, 95% UI 16%-24%) and highest in Alberta (24%, 95% UI 21%-28%) and British Columbia (24%, 95% UI 20%-30%). Among all foreign-born Canadian residents with tuberculosis infection in 2021, we estimated that only 1 in 488 (95% UI 185-1039) had become infected within the 2 preceding years. INTERPRETATION: About 1 in 4 foreign-born Canadian residents has tuberculosis infection, but very few were infected within the 2 preceding years (the highest risk period for progression to tuberculosis disease). These data may inform future tuberculosis infection screening policies.


Assuntos
Emigrantes e Imigrantes , Tuberculose Latente , Tuberculose , Humanos , Incidência , Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Canadá/epidemiologia
6.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 82, 2022 Jan 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35073862

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance develops following the accrual of mutations in the bacterial genome, and may variably impact organism fitness and hence, transmission risk. Classical representation of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics using a single or two strain (DS/MDR-TB) model typically does not capture elements of this important aspect of TB epidemiology. To understand and estimate the likelihood of resistance spreading in high drug-resistant TB incidence settings, we used epidemiological data to develop a mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. METHODS: A four-strain (drug-susceptible (DS), isoniazid mono-resistant (INH-R), rifampicin mono-resistant (RIF-R) and multidrug-resistant (MDR)) compartmental deterministic Mtb transmission model was developed to explore the progression from DS- to MDR-TB in The Philippines and Viet Nam. The models were calibrated using data from national tuberculosis prevalence (NTP) surveys and drug resistance surveys (DRS). An adaptive Metropolis algorithm was used to estimate the risks of drug resistance amplification among unsuccessfully treated individuals. RESULTS: The estimated proportion of INH-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) for The Philippines and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for Viet Nam. The proportion of RIF-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.05 (95% CI 0.04-0.07) for The Philippines and 0.011 (95% CI 0.010-0.012) for Viet Nam. CONCLUSION: The risk of resistance amplification due to treatment failure for INH was dramatically higher than RIF. We observed RIF-R strains were more likely to be transmitted than acquired through amplification, while both mechanisms of acquisition were important contributors in the case of INH-R. These findings highlight the complexity of drug resistance dynamics in high-incidence settings, and emphasize the importance of prioritizing testing algorithms which allow for early detection of INH-R.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos , Tuberculose , Antituberculosos/farmacologia , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Resistência a Medicamentos , Humanos , Isoniazida , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , Rifampina , Tuberculose/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologia
7.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 116, 2022 Feb 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35109801

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: While there has been a recent epidemiological and clinical focus on the interaction between diabetes and tuberculosis, the interaction between chronic kidney disease and tuberculosis has been less studied. In particular, little is known of the effect of eGFR levels well above that seen in end stage kidney disease on mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 653 adults from a large Australian hospital network, using data from a state-wide registry of reported tuberculosis cases between 2010 and 2018, with ascertainment of diabetes status and renal function data from hospital medical records and laboratory data. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios for all-cause mortality associated with categories of chronic kidney disease in adults with tuberculosis disease. RESULTS: Total number of deaths was 25 (3.8%). Compared to tuberculosis cases with eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min, all-cause mortality was higher for those with chronic kidney disease from an eGFR level of 45 ml/min. The association was independent of sex, age and diabetes status with adjusted hazard ratio of 4.6 (95% CI: 1.5, 14.4) for eGFR 30-44 ml/min and 8.3 (95% CI: 2.9, 23.7) for eGFR < 30 ml/min. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a notably increased risk of all-cause mortality even in those with more moderate degrees of renal impairment, in a low tuberculosis prevalence setting. The impact of these findings on a population basis are at least as significant as that found with diabetes and warrant further investigation in populations with higher tuberculosis prevalence.


Assuntos
Insuficiência Renal Crônica , Tuberculose , Adulto , Austrália/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Taxa de Filtração Glomerular , Humanos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/complicações , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Tuberculose/complicações , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
8.
Proc Biol Sci ; 288(1943): 20201635, 2021 01 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33467995

RESUMO

Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8-32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-clear within 10 years of infection, and 73.1% (64.6-81.7%) over a lifetime. The lifetime risk of TB disease was 17.0% (10.9-22.5%), compared to 12.6% (10.1-15.0%) assuming lifelong infection. The population at risk of TB disease in India, China and Japan was 35-80% (95% UI) smaller in the self-clearance scenario. Conclusions: the population with a viable Mtb infection may be markedly smaller than generally assumed, with such individuals at greater risk of TB disease. The ability to identify these individuals could dramatically improve the targeting of preventive programmes and inform TB vaccine development, bringing TB elimination within reach of feasibility.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Teorema de Bayes , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Japão/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
9.
J Infect Dis ; 221(3): 356-366, 2020 01 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31314899

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The effect of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment on length of stay (LoS) in patients hospitalized with influenza is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a one-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis exploring the association between NAI treatment and LoS in patients hospitalized with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) infection. Using mixed-effects negative binomial regression and adjusting for the propensity to receive NAI, antibiotic, and corticosteroid treatment, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Patients with a LoS of <1 day and those who died while hospitalized were excluded. RESULTS: We analyzed data on 18 309 patients from 70 clinical centers. After adjustment, NAI treatment initiated at hospitalization was associated with a 19% reduction in the LoS among patients with clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, .78-.85), compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment. Similar statistically significant associations were seen in all clinical subgroups. NAI treatment (at any time), compared with no NAI treatment, and NAI treatment initiated <2 days after symptom onset, compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment, showed mixed patterns of association with the LoS. CONCLUSIONS: When patients hospitalized with influenza are treated with NAIs, treatment initiated on admission, regardless of time since symptom onset, is associated with a reduced LoS, compared with later or no initiation of treatment.


Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Inibidores Enzimáticos/uso terapêutico , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/tratamento farmacológico , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Tempo de Internação , Neuraminidase/antagonistas & inibidores , Pandemias , Adolescente , Corticosteroides/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Idoso , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Inibidores Enzimáticos/farmacologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
10.
Clin Infect Dis ; 70(10): 2111-2118, 2020 05 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31246254

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The risk of progression to tuberculosis (TB) disease is greatest soon after infection, yet disease may occur many years or decades later. However, rates of TB reactivation long after infection remain poorly quantified. Australia has a low incidence of TB and most cases occur among migrants. We explored how TB rates in Australian migrants varied with time from migration, age, and gender. METHODS: We combined TB notifications in census years 2006, 2011, and 2016 with time- and country-specific estimates of latent TB prevalences in migrant cohorts to quantify postmigration reactivation rates. RESULTS: During the census years, 3246 TB cases occurred among an estimated 2 084 000 migrants with latent TB. There were consistent trends in postmigration reactivation rates, which appeared to be dependent on both time from migration and age. Rates were lower in cohorts with increasing time, until at least 20 years from migration, and on this background there also appeared to be increasing rates during youth (15-24 years of age) and in those aged 70 years and above. Within 5 years of migration, annual reactivation rates were approximately 400 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval [UI] 320-480), dropping to 170 (UI 130-220) from 5 to 10 years and 110 (UI 70-160) from 10 to 20 years, then sustaining at 60-70 per 100 000 up to 60 years from migration. Rates varied depending on age at migration. CONCLUSIONS: Postmigration reactivation rates appeared to show dependency on both time from migration and age. This approach to quantifying reactivation risks will enable evaluations of the potential impacts of TB control and elimination strategies.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente , Migrantes , Tuberculose , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Austrália/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
11.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(11): 2709-2712, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32917293

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease has disrupted tuberculosis services globally. Data from 33 centers in 16 countries on 5 continents showed that attendance at tuberculosis centers was lower during the first 4 months of the pandemic in 2020 than for the same period in 2019. Resources are needed to ensure tuberculosis care continuity during the pandemic.


Assuntos
Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/tendências , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Utilização de Instalações e Serviços/tendências , Saúde Global/tendências , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/terapia , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
12.
Med J Aust ; 213(2): 86-93, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32594562

RESUMO

Since coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and spread around the world, over 1100 clinical studies have been registered globally on clinical trials registries, including over 500 randomised controlled trials. Such rapid development and launch of clinical trials is impressive but presents challenges, including the potential for duplication and competition. There is currently no known effective treatment for COVID-19. In order to focus on those studies most likely to influence clinical practice, we summarise the 31 currently registered randomised trials with a target sample size of at least 1000 participants. We have grouped these trials into four categories: prophylaxis; treatment of outpatients with mild COVID-19; treatment of hospitalised patients with moderate COVID-19; and treatment of hospitalised patients with moderate or severe disease. The most common therapeutic agent being trialled currently is hydroxychloroquine (24 trials with potential sample size of over 25 000 participants), followed by lopinavir-ritonavir (seven trials) and remdesevir (five trials) There are many candidate drugs in pre-clinical and early phase development, and these form a pipeline for future large clinical trials if current candidate therapies prove ineffective or unsafe.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , COVID-19 , Humanos , Hidroxicloroquina/uso terapêutico , SARS-CoV-2 , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19
13.
Health Expect ; 23(6): 1431-1440, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32918523

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) elimination strategies in Australia require a focus on groups who are at highest risk of TB infection, such as immigrants from high-burden settings. Understanding attitudes to different strategies for latent TB infection (LTBI) screening and treatment is an important element of justifiable elimination strategies. METHOD: Two community panels were conducted in Melbourne with members of the Vietnamese (n = 11), Sudanese and South Sudanese communities (n = 9). Panellists were provided with expert information about LTBI and different screening and health communication strategies, then deliberated on how best to pursue TB elimination in Australia. FINDINGS: Both panels unanimously preferred LTBI screening to occur pre-migration rather than in Australia. Participants were concerned that post-migration screening would reach fewer migrants, noted that conducting LTBI screening in Australia could stigmatize participants and that poor awareness of LTBI would hamper participation. If targeted screening was to occur in Australia, the Vietnamese panel preferred 'place-based' communication strategies, whereas the Sudanese and South Sudanese panel emphasized that community leaders should lead communication strategies to minimize stigma. Both groups emphasized the importance of maintaining community trust in Australian health service providers, and the need to ensure targeting did not undermine this trust. CONCLUSION: Pre-migration screening was preferred. If post-migration screening is necessary, the potential for stigma should be reduced, benefit and risk profile clearly explained and culturally appropriate communication strategies employed. Cultural attitudes to health providers, personal health management and broader social vulnerabilities of targeted groups need to be considered in the design of screening programs.


Assuntos
Emigrantes e Imigrantes , Tuberculose Latente , Migrantes , Povo Asiático , Austrália , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento
14.
Eur Respir J ; 54(6)2019 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31601711

RESUMO

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that countries implement pharmacovigilance and collect information on active drug safety monitoring (aDSM) and management of adverse events.The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the frequency and severity of adverse events to anti-tuberculosis (TB) drugs in a cohort of consecutive TB patients treated with new (i.e. bedaquiline, delamanid) and repurposed (i.e. clofazimine, linezolid) drugs, based on the WHO aDSM project. Adverse events were collected prospectively after attribution to a specific drug together with demographic, bacteriological, radiological and clinical information at diagnosis and during therapy. This interim analysis included patients who completed or were still on treatment at time of data collection.Globally, 45 centres from 26 countries/regions reported 658 patients (68.7% male, 4.4% HIV co-infected) treated as follows: 87.7% with bedaquiline, 18.4% with delamanid (6.1% with both), 81.5% with linezolid and 32.4% with clofazimine. Overall, 504 adverse event episodes were reported: 447 (88.7%) were classified as minor (grade 1-2) and 57 (11.3%) as serious (grade 3-5). The majority of the 57 serious adverse events reported by 55 patients (51 out of 57, 89.5%) ultimately resolved. Among patients reporting serious adverse events, some drugs held responsible were discontinued: bedaquiline in 0.35% (two out of 577), delamanid in 0.8% (one out of 121), linezolid in 1.9% (10 out of 536) and clofazimine in 1.4% (three out of 213) of patients. Serious adverse events were reported in 6.9% (nine out of 131) of patients treated with amikacin, 0.4% (one out of 221) with ethionamide/prothionamide, 2.8% (15 out of 536) with linezolid and 1.8% (eight out of 498) with cycloserine/terizidone.The aDSM study provided valuable information, but implementation needs scaling-up to support patient-centred care.


Assuntos
Antituberculosos/efeitos adversos , Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos/diagnóstico , Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Farmacovigilância , Estudos Prospectivos
15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 244, 2019 Mar 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30866840

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not well studied. We aimed to quantify this heterogeneity and the presence of "super-spreading" events that can assist in designing optimal public health interventions. METHODS: TB epidemiologic investigation data notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 from Victoria, Australia were used to quantify TB patients' heterogeneity in infectiousness and super-spreading events. We fitted a negative binomial offspring distribution (NBD) for the number of secondary infections and secondary active TB disease each TB patient produced. The dispersion parameter, k, of the NBD measures the level of heterogeneity, where low values of k (e.g. k < 1) indicate over-dispersion. Super-spreading was defined as patients causing as many or more secondary infections as the 99th centile of an equivalent homogeneous distribution. Contact infection was determined based on a tuberculin skin test (TST) result of ≥10 mm. A NBD model was fitted to identify index characteristics that were associated with the number of contacts infected and risk ratios (RRs) were used to quantify the strength of this association. RESULTS: There were 4190 (2312 pulmonary and 1878 extrapulmonary) index TB patients and 18,030 contacts. A total of 15,522 contacts were tested with TST, of whom 3213 had a result of ≥10 mm. The dispersion parameter, k for secondary infections was estimated at 0.16 (95%CI 0.14-0.17) and there were 414 (9.9%) super-spreading events. From the 3213 secondary infections, 2415 (75.2%) were due to super-spreading events. There were 226 contacts who developed active TB disease and a higher level of heterogeneity was found for this outcome than for secondary infection, with k estimated at 0.036 (95%CI 0.025-0.046). In regression analyses, we found that infectiousness was greater among index patients found by clinical presentation and those with bacteriological confirmation. CONCLUSION: TB transmission is highly over dispersed and super-spreading events are responsible for a substantial majority of secondary infections. Heterogeneity of transmission and super-spreading are critical issues to consider in the design of interventions and models of TB transmission dynamics.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Busca de Comunicante , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/transmissão , Vitória/epidemiologia
16.
Intern Med J ; 49(3): 364-372, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30151969

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reports from resource-poor countries have associated thionamide- and para-aminosalicylate sodium (PAS)-based treatment of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) with the development of hypothyroidism. AIM: To identify predictors and assess the cumulative proportions of hypothyroidism in patients treated for MDR-TB with these agents in Australia. METHODS: Retrospective multicentre study of MDR-TB patients from five academic centres covering tuberculosis (TB) services in Victoria, Australia. Patients were identified using each centre's pharmacy department and cross checked with the Victorian Tuberculosis Program. Hypothyroidism was categorised as subclinical if the thyroid-stimulating hormone was elevated and as overt if free thyroxine (fT4) was additionally reduced on two separate occasions. Our main outcome measured was the cumulative proportion of hypothyroidism (at 5 years from treatment initiation). RESULTS: Of the 29 cases available for analysis, the cumulative proportion of hypothyroidism at 5 years was 37% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0-57.8%). Eight of the nine affected cases developed hypothyroidism within the first 12 months of treatment. Hypothyroidism was marginally (P = 0.06) associated with higher prothionamide/PAS dosing and was reversible with cessation of the anti-tuberculosis medication. CONCLUSIONS: Prothionamide/PAS treatment-associated hypothyroidism is common in MDR-TB patients in Australia, emphasising the importance of regular thyroid function monitoring during this treatment. Thyroid hormone replacement, if initiated, may not need to be continued after MDR-TB treatment is completed.


Assuntos
Antituberculosos/efeitos adversos , Hipotireoidismo/induzido quimicamente , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Vitória , Adulto Jovem
18.
Eur Respir J ; 51(2)2018 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29467206

RESUMO

Historical data show that the risk of tuberculosis increases dramatically during adolescence, and young people face unique challenges in terms of case detection and effective treatment. However, little is known about the burden of tuberculosis among young people in the modern era. This study aimed to provide the first estimates of the global and regional incidence of tuberculosis among young people aged 10-24 years.Using the World Health Organization (WHO) database of tuberculosis notifications for 2012, we estimated the burden of tuberculosis among young people by WHO region. Adjustments were made for incomplete age disaggregation and underreporting, using supplementary data from several countries representing diverse tuberculosis epidemics.We estimate that 1.78 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 1.23-3.00 million) young people developed tuberculosis in 2012, accounting for 17% of all new tuberculosis cases globally. Young people in the WHO South East Asian Region (721 000, UI 473 000-1.35 million) and the WHO African Region (534 000, UI 359 000-912 000) experienced the greatest number of tuberculosis episodes.Young people suffer a considerable burden of tuberculosis. Age-specific burden of disease estimation for this age group is complicated by incomplete age disaggregation of tuberculosis data, highlighting the importance of continued surveillance system strengthening.


Assuntos
Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Criança , Epidemias , Feminino , Geografia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Prevalência , Risco , Tuberculose/complicações , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto Jovem
19.
Eur Respir J ; 52(6)2018 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30361251

RESUMO

Migration is a key driver of tuberculosis (TB) in many low-incidence settings, with the majority of TB cases attributed to reactivation of latent TB (LTBI) acquired overseas. A greater understanding of LTBI risk in heterogeneous migrant populations would aid health planning. We aimed to estimate the LTBI prevalence and distribution among locally born and overseas-born Australians.Annual risks of TB infection estimates were applied to population cohorts (by country of birth, year of arrival and age) in Australian census data in 2006, 2011 and 2016.Both the absolute number and proportion of Australian residents with LTBI increased from 4.6% (interquartile range (IQR) 4.2-5.2%) in 2006 to 5.1% (IQR 4.7-5.5%) in 2016, due to the increasing proportion of the population born overseas (23.8% in 2006 to 28.3% in 2016). Of all residents estimated to have LTBI in 2016; 93.2% were overseas born, 21.6% were aged <35 years and 34.4% had migrated to Australia since 2007.The overall prevalence of LTBI in Australia is low. Some residents, particularly migrants from high-incidence settings, may have considerably higher risk of LTBI, and these findings allow for tailored public health interventions to reduce the risk and impact of future TB disease.


Assuntos
Tuberculose Latente/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Saúde Pública , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Austrália/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Coleta de Dados , Emigração e Imigração , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Tuberculose Latente/diagnóstico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Migrantes , Adulto Jovem
20.
BMC Med ; 16(1): 193, 2018 10 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30333043

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission often occurs within a household or community, leading to heterogeneous spatial patterns. However, apparent spatial clustering of TB could reflect ongoing transmission or co-location of risk factors and can vary considerably depending on the type of data available, the analysis methods employed and the dynamics of the underlying population. Thus, we aimed to review methodological approaches used in the spatial analysis of TB burden. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of TB published in English using Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Scopus and Web of Science databases with no date restriction from inception to 15 February 2017. The protocol for this systematic review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO ( CRD42016036655 ). RESULTS: We identified 168 eligible studies with spatial methods used to describe the spatial distribution (n = 154), spatial clusters (n = 73), predictors of spatial patterns (n = 64), the role of congregate settings (n = 3) and the household (n = 2) on TB transmission. Molecular techniques combined with geospatial methods were used by 25 studies to compare the role of transmission to reactivation as a driver of TB spatial distribution, finding that geospatial hotspots are not necessarily areas of recent transmission. Almost all studies used notification data for spatial analysis (161 of 168), although none accounted for undetected cases. The most common data visualisation technique was notification rate mapping, and the use of smoothing techniques was uncommon. Spatial clusters were identified using a range of methods, with the most commonly employed being Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic followed by local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's local Gi(d) tests. In the 11 papers that compared two such methods using a single dataset, the clustering patterns identified were often inconsistent. Classical regression models that did not account for spatial dependence were commonly used to predict spatial TB risk. In all included studies, TB showed a heterogeneous spatial pattern at each geographic resolution level examined. CONCLUSIONS: A range of spatial analysis methodologies has been employed in divergent contexts, with all studies demonstrating significant heterogeneity in spatial TB distribution. Future studies are needed to define the optimal method for each context and should account for unreported cases when using notification data where possible. Future studies combining genotypic and geospatial techniques with epidemiologically linked cases have the potential to provide further insights and improve TB control.


Assuntos
Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Feminino , Genótipo , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Análise Espacial , Tuberculose/patologia
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