Identifying Paucisymptomatic or Asymptomatic and Unrecognized Ebola Virus Disease Among Close Contacts Based on Exposure Risk Assessments and Screening Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence to evaluate screening algorithms with rapid antigen testing and exposure assessments as identification strategies for paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infection and unrecognized EBOV disease (EVD). METHODS: We used serostatus and self-reported postexposure symptoms from a cohort study to classify contact-participants as having no infection, paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, or unrecognized EVD. Exposure risk was categorized as low, intermediate, or high. We created hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition with or without rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) or exposure assessments. RESULTS: This analysis included 990 EVD survivors and 1909 contacts, of whom 115 (6%) had paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic EBOV infection, 107 (6%) had unrecognized EVD, and 1687 (88%) were uninfected. High-risk exposures were drivers of unrecognized EVD (adjusted odds ratio, 3.5 [95% confidence interval, 2.4-4.9]). To identify contacts with unrecognized EVD who test negative by the WHO case definition, the sensitivity was 96% with RDT (95% confidence interval, 91%-99%), 87% with high-risk exposure (82%-92%), and 97% with intermediate- to high-risk exposures (93%-99%). The proportion of false-positives was 2% with RDT and 53%-93% with intermediate- and/or high-risk exposures. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the utility and trade-offs of sequential screening algorithms with RDT or exposure risk assessments as identification strategies for contacts with unrecognized EVD.

Simplifying the estimation of diagnostic testing accuracy over time for high specificity tests in the absence of a gold standard.

Many different methods for evaluating diagnostic test results in the absence of a gold standard have been proposed. In this paper, we discuss how one common method, a maximum likelihood estimate for a latent class model found via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm can be applied to longitudinal data where test sensitivity changes over time. We also propose two simplified and nonparametric methods which use data-based indicator variables for disease status and compare their accuracy to the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) results. We find that with high specificity tests, the performance of simpler approximations may be just as high as the MLE.

A Longitudinal Study of Ebola Sequelae in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Multiple health problems have been reported in survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Attribution of these problems to the disease without a control group for analysis is difficult. METHODS: We enrolled a cohort of EVD survivors and their close contacts and prospectively collected data on symptoms, physical examination findings, and laboratory results. A subset of participants underwent ophthalmologic examinations. Persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) RNA in semen samples from survivors was determined. RESULTS: A total of 966 EBOV antibody-positive survivors and 2350 antibody-negative close contacts (controls) were enrolled, and 90% of these participants were followed for 12 months. At enrollment (median time to baseline visit, 358 days after symptom onset), six symptoms were reported significantly more often among survivors than among controls: urinary frequency (14.7% vs. 3.4%), headache (47.6% vs. 35.6%), fatigue (18.4% vs. 6.3%), muscle pain (23.1% vs. 10.1%), memory loss (29.2% vs. 4.8%), and joint pain (47.5% vs. 17.5%). On examination, more survivors than controls had abnormal abdominal, chest, neurologic, and musculoskeletal findings and uveitis. Other than uveitis (prevalence at enrollment, 26.4% vs. 12.1%; at year 1, 33.3% vs. 15.4%), the prevalence of these conditions declined during follow-up in both groups. The incidence of most symptoms, neurologic findings, and uveitis was greater among survivors than among controls. EBOV RNA was detected in semen samples from 30% of the survivors tested, with a maximum time from illness to detection of 40 months. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively high burden of symptoms was seen in all participants, but certain symptoms and examination findings were more common among survivors. With the exception of uveitis, these conditions declined in prevalence during follow-up in both groups. Viral RNA in semen persisted for a maximum of 40 months. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Eye Institute; PREVAIL III ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02431923.).

PREVAIL IV: A Randomized, Double-Blind, 2-Phase, Phase 2 Trial of Remdesivir vs Placebo for Reduction of Ebola Virus RNA in the Semen of Male Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus RNA persists in the semen of male Ebola survivors for months to years after the acute infection, and male-to-female sexual transmission of the virus is well documented. We investigated whether remdesivir can safely reduce persistence of seminal Ebola virus RNA. METHODS: We recruited men with persistent seminal Ebola RNA in Liberia and Guinea. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive intravenous remdesivir (GS-5734; Gilead Sciences) or matching placebo administered once daily by intravenous infusion over 1 hour on 5 consecutive days. Stratification was by country and number of positive (1 or 2) preenrollment semen tests. We evaluated the difference in mean assay negativity rate (ANR), that is, the proportion of negative tests for each participant in each group in the treatment (days 1-28) and follow-up (months 2-6) phases on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS: We enrolled 38 men from July 2016 through June 2018. The mean treatment phase ANRs were 85% (standard deviation [SD] = 24%) and 76% (SD = 30%) in the remdesivir and placebo arms, respectively (P = .270). The mean follow-up phase ANRs were 96% (SD = 10%) and 81% (SD = 29%) in the remdesivir and placebo arms, respectively (P = .041). The 5-day remdesivir regimen was well tolerated with no safety concerns. CONCLUSIONS: In this small trial, remdesivir 100 mg/day for 5 days safely reduced the presence of Ebola virus RNA in the semen of Ebola survivors 2 to 6 months after administration. A larger follow-up study is necessary to confirm results. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT02818582.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in vaccine-naïve participants from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali.

OBJECTIVES: The InVITE study, starting in August 2021, was designed to examine the immunogenicity of different vaccine regimens in several countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali. Prevaccination baseline samples were used to obtain estimates of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study population. METHODS: Adult participants were enrolled upon receipt of their initial COVID-19 vaccine from August 2021 to June 2022. Demographic and comorbidity data were collected at the time of baseline sample collection. SARS-CoV-2 serum anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibody levels were measured. RESULTS: Samples tested included 1016, 375, 663, and 776, from DRC, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali, respectively. Only 0.8% of participants reported a prior positive SARS-CoV-2 test, while 83% and 68% had anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 86% over the accrual period, suggesting a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Low rates of prior positive test results may be explained by asymptomatic infections, limited access to SARS-CoV-2 test kits and health care, and inadequate surveillance. These seroprevalence rates are from a convenience sample and may not be representative of the population in general, underscoring the need for timely, well-conducted surveillance as part of global pandemic preparedness.

Challenges of conducting an international observational study to assess immunogenicity of multiple COVID-19 vaccines.

The International Study on COVID-19 Vaccines to Assess Immunogenicity, Reactogenicity, and Efficacy is an observational study to assess the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines used in Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Indonesia, Liberia, Mali, Mexico, and Mongolia. The study, which has enrolled 5,401 adults, is prospectively following participants for approximately two years. This study is important as it has enrolled participants from resource-limited settings that have largely been excluded from COVID-19 research studies during the pandemic. There are significant challenges to mounting a study during an international health emergency, especially in resource-limited settings. Here we focus on challenges and hurdles encountered during the planning and implementation of the study with regard to study logistics, national vaccine policies, pandemic-induced and supply chain constraints, and cultural beliefs. We also highlight the successful mitigation of these challenges through the team's proactive thinking, collaborative approach, and innovative solutions. This study serves as an example of how established programs in resource-limited settings can be leveraged to contribute to biomedical research during a pandemic response. Lessons learned from this study can be applied to other studies mounted to respond rapidly during a global health crisis and will contribute to capacity for stronger pandemic preparedness in the future when there is a crucial need for urgent response and data collection.

Pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and infant growth and development after recovery from Ebola virus disease in Liberia: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Minimal data exist on pregnancy following recovery from Ebola in people of child-bearing potential (females aged roughly 18-45 years). The aim of this study was to assess viral persistence or reactivation in pregnancy, the frequency of placental transfer of anti-Ebola IgG antibodies, and pregnancy outcomes in this population. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we studied self-reported pregnancies in two groups: seropositive people who had recovered from Ebola virus disease (seropositive group) and seronegative people who had close contact with people with Ebola (seronegative group). Participants had enrolled in the PREVAIL III longitudinal study and were exposed during the 2014-2016 Liberian Ebola outbreak. The primary outcome was pregnancy result. We assessed rates of livebirths and other pregnancy results in both study groups, and presence of Ebola RNA by PCR in samples of placenta, maternal and cord blood, breastmilk, and vaginal secretions from people who had recovered from Ebola who conceived a median of 14 months after acute Ebola virus disease. Mixed-model logistic regression evaluated associations between first-reported pregnancy outcome, age, and study group. Growth and neurodevelopment in the infants born to people in the seropositive group were assessed at 6-month intervals for 2 years. Data were accrued by PREVAIL III study staff. FINDINGS: 1566 participants were enrolled between June 17, 2015, and Dec 14, 2017, of whom 639 became pregnant (215 seropositive, 424 seronegative) and 589 reported pregnancy outcomes (206 seropositive, 383 seronegative). 105 infants born to 98 mothers in the seropositive group were enrolled in the birth cohort. Ebola RNA was not detected in 205 samples of placenta, cord blood, or maternal blood taken at birth from 54 mothers in the seropositive group, nor in 367 vaginal swabs. Viral RNA was found in two of 354 longitudinal breastmilk samples. All but one of 57 infants born during these 54 births were seropositive for anti-Ebola antibodies. Neonates showed high concentrations of anti-Ebola IgG, which declined after 6 months. Odds of adverse pregnancy outcome among the two groups were indistinguishable (OR 1·13, 95% CI 0·71-1·79). Compared with WHO standards, infants born to those in the seropositive group had lower median weight and length, and larger median head circumference over 2 years. Compared with a cohort from the USA accrual of gross motor developmental milestones was similar, whereas attainment of pincer grasp and early vocalisation were mildly delayed. INTERPRETATION: The risks of Ebola virus reactivation in the peripartum and postpartum period and of adverse birth outcomes are low in those who have recovered from Ebola virus disease and become pregnant approximately 1 year after acute Ebola virus disease. The implication for clinical practice is that care of people who are pregnant and who have recovered from Ebola can be offered without risks to health-care providers or stigmatisation of the mothers and their offspring. The implication for prospective mothers is that safe pregnancies are entirely possible after recovery from Ebola. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Liberia Ministry of Health.

Clinical sequelae among individuals with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease in Liberia: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether or not individuals with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease develop clinical sequelae is unknown. We assessed current symptoms and physical examination findings among individuals with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease compared with Ebola virus disease survivors and uninfected contacts. METHODS: Between June 17, 2015, and June 30, 2017, we studied a cohort of Ebola virus disease survivors and their contacts in Liberia. Surveys, current symptoms and physical examination findings, and serology were used to characterise disease status of reported Ebola virus disease, unrecognised Ebola virus disease, pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection, or no infection. We pre-specified findings known to be differentially prevalent among Ebola virus disease survivors versus their contacts (urinary frequency, headache, fatigue, muscle pain, memory loss, joint pain, neurological findings, chest findings, muscle findings, joint findings, abdominal findings, and uveitis). We estimated the prevalence and incidence of selected clinical findings by disease status. FINDINGS: Our analytical cohort included 991 reported Ebola virus disease survivors and 2688 close contacts. The median time from acute Ebola virus disease onset to baseline was 317 days (IQR 271-366). Of 222 seropositive contacts, 115 had pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection and 107 had unrecognised Ebola virus disease. At baseline, prevalent findings of joint pain, memory loss, muscle pain, and fatigue were lowest among those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection or no infection, higher among contacts with unrecognised Ebola virus disease, and highest in reported survivors of Ebola virus disease. Joint pain was the most prevalent finding, and was reported in 434 (18%) of 2466 individuals with no infection, 14 (12%) of 115 with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, 31 (29%) of 107 with unrecognised Ebola virus disease, and 476 (48%) of 991 with reported Ebola virus disease. In adjusted analyses, this pattern remained for joint pain and memory loss. Survivors had an increased odds of joint pain compared with unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2·13, 95% CI 1·34-3·39); unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts had an increased odds of joint pain compared with those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and uninfected contacts (adjusted OR 1·89, 95% CI 1·21-2·97). The adjusted odds of memory loss was more than four-times higher among survivors than among unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts (adjusted OR 4·47, 95% CI 2·41-8·30) and two-times higher among unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts than in those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and uninfected contacts (adjusted OR 2·05, 95% CI 1·10-3·84). By 12 months, prevalent findings had decreased in the three infected groups. INTERPRETATION: Our findings provide evidence of post-Ebola virus disease clinical sequelae among contacts with unrecognised Ebola virus disease but not in people with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Design of an observational multi-country cohort study to assess immunogenicity of multiple vaccine platforms (InVITE).

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, and the World Health Oraganization (WHO) has granted emergency use listing to multiple vaccines. Studies of vaccine immunogenicity data from implementing COVID-19 vaccines by national immunization programs in single studies spanning multiple countries and continents are limited but critically needed to answer public health questions on vaccines, such as comparing immune responses to different vaccines and among different populations.

Triangulating Evidence to Infer Pathways that Influence Ebola Virus Disease-Related Stigma and Clinical Findings among Survivors: An Observational Cohort Study.

Visible signs of disease can evoke stigma while stigma contributes to depression and mental illness, sometimes manifesting as somatic symptoms. We assessed these hypotheses among Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors, some of whom experienced clinical sequelae. Ebola virus disease survivors in Liberia were enrolled in an observational cohort study starting in June 2015 with visits every 6 months. At baseline and 18 months later, a seven-item index of EVD-related stigma was administered. Clinical findings (self-reported symptoms and abnormal findings) were obtained at each visit. We applied the generalized estimating equation method to assess the bidirectional concurrent and lagged associations between clinical findings and stigma, adjusting for age, gender, educational level, referral to medical care, and HIV serostatus as confounders. When assessing the contribution of stigma to later clinical findings, we restricted clinical findings to five that were also considered somatic symptoms. Data were obtained from 859 EVD survivors. In concurrent longitudinal analyses, each additional clinical finding increased the adjusted odds of stigma by 18% (95% CI: 1.11, 1.25), particularly palpitations, muscle pain, joint pain, urinary frequency, and memory loss. In lagged associations, memory loss (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.73, 12.36) and anorexia (AOR: 4.17; 95% CI: 1.82, 9.53) were associated with later stigma, but stigma was not significantly associated with later clinical findings. Stigma was associated with select symptoms, not abnormal objective findings. Lagged associations between symptoms and later stigma substantiate the possibility of a pathway related to visible symptoms identified by community members and leading to fear of contagion.