Author Correction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.

Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant and most consequential climate variation on Earth, and is characterized by warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase and cooling during the La Niña phase. ENSO events tend to have a centre-corresponding to the location of the maximum SST anomaly-in either the central equatorial Pacific (5° S-5° N, 160° E-150° W) or the eastern equatorial Pacific (5° S-5° N, 150°-90° W); these two distinct types of ENSO event are referred to as the CP-ENSO and EP-ENSO regimes, respectively. How the ENSO may change under future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a lack of inter-model agreement over the response of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to such warming. Here we find a robust increase in future EP-ENSO SST variability among CMIP5 climate models that simulate the two distinct ENSO regimes. We show that the EP-ENSO SST anomaly pattern and its centre differ greatly from one model to another, and therefore cannot be well represented by a single SST 'index' at the observed centre. However, although the locations of the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find a robust increase in SST variability at each anomaly centre across the majority of models considered. This increase in variability is largely due to greenhouse-warming-induced intensification of upper-ocean stratification in the equatorial Pacific, which enhances ocean-atmosphere coupling. An increase in SST variance implies an increase in the number of 'strong' EP-El Niño events (corresponding to large SST anomalies) and associated extreme weather events.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

El Niño in a changing climate.

El Niño events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Niño events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies show that the canonical El Niño has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Niño has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Niño, termed the central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño; also termed the dateline El Niño, El Niño Modoki or warm pool El Niño), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Niño to EP-El Niño under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model data set. Using calculations based on historical El Niño indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Niño compared to the EP-El Niño. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of CP-El Niño to EP-El Niño, the occurrence ratio of CP-El Niño/EP-El Niño is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific.

Population genomic and biophysical modeling show different patterns of population connectivity in the spiny lobster Jasus frontalis inhabiting oceanic islands.

Knowledge about connectivity between populations is essential for the fisheries management of commercial species. The lobster Jasus frontalis inhabits two oceanic island groups, the Juan Fernández Archipelago and the Desventuradas Islands, separated by 800 km. Since this species is primarily exploited in the Juan Fernández Archipelago, knowledge of the connectivity patterns among islands is foundational for species management. Here, we used variability at single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and individual-based modeling (IBM) to estimate the genetic structure and connectivity between J. frontalis populations in these island groups. The variability at 9090 SNPs suggests two genetic populations, one in the Juan Fernández Archipelago and one in the Desventuradas Islands. Furthermore, IBM suggests an asymmetric connectivity pattern, with particles moving from the Juan Fernández Archipelago to the Desventuradas Islands but not vice versa. Since the IBM analysis suggests asymmetric larval movement between the islands, and the genetic analysis indicates isolation between the Juan Fernández Archipelago and the Desventuradas Islands, larval retention mechanisms such as small-scale oceanographic processes or behavior could hinder larval movement between islands. This study highlights the importance of using more than one methodology to estimate population connectivity.

An ocean front dataset for the Mediterranean sea and southwest Indian ocean.

Fronts are ubiquitous discrete features of the global ocean often associated with enhanced vertical velocities, in turn boosting primary production. Fronts thus form dynamical and ephemeral ecosystems where numerous species meet across all trophic levels. Fronts are also targeted by fisheries. Capturing ocean fronts and studying their long-term variability in relation with climate change is thus key for marine resource management and spatial planning. The Mediterranean Sea and the Southwest Indian Ocean are natural laboratories to study front-marine life interactions due to their energetic flow at sub-to-mesoscales, high biodiversity (including endemic and endangered species) and numerous conservation initiatives. Based on remotely-sensed Sea Surface Temperature and Height, we compute thermal fronts (2003-2020) and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures (1994-2020), in both regions over several decades. We advocate for the combined use of both thermal fronts and attracting Lagrangian coherent structures to study front-marine life interactions. The resulting front dataset differs from other alternatives by its high spatio-temporal resolution, long time coverage, and relevant thresholds defined for ecological provinces.

High levels of connectivity over large distances in the diadematid sea urchin Centrostephanus sylviae.

Most benthic marine invertebrates with sedentary benthic adult phases have planktonic larvae that permit connectivity between geographically isolated populations. Planktonic larval duration and oceanographic processes are vital to connecting populations of species inhabiting remote and distant islands. In the present study, we analyzed the population genetic structure of the sea urchin Centrostephanus sylviae, which inhabits only the Juan Fernández Archipelago and the Desventuradas islands, separated by more than 800 km. For 92 individuals collected from Robinson Crusoe and Selkirk Islands (Juan Fernández Archipelago) and San Ambrosio Island (Desventuradas Islands), 7,067 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were obtained. The results did not show a spatial genetic structure for C. sylviae; relative high migration rates were revealed between the islands. An analysis of the water circulation pattern in the area described a predominant northward water flow with periods of inverted flow, suggesting that larvae could move in both directions. Overall, this evidence suggests that C. sylviae comprises a single large population composed of individuals separated by more than 800 km.

ENSO diversity driving low-frequency change in mesoscale activity off Peru and Chile.

Transient mesoscale oceanic eddies in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are thought to strongly affect key regional scale processes such as ocean heat transport, coastal upwelling and productivity. Understanding how these can be modulated at low-frequency is thus critical to infer their role in the climate system. Here we use 26 years of satellite altimeter data and regional oceanic modeling to investigate the modulation of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) off Peru and Chile by ENSO, the main mode of natural variability in the tropical Pacific. We show that EKE tends to increase during strong Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events along the Peruvian coast up to northern Chile and decreases off central Chile, while it is hardly changed during Central Pacific El Niño and La Niña events. However the magnitude of the EKE changes during strong EP El Niño events is not proportional to their strength, with in particular the 1972/1973 El Niño event standing out as an extreme event in terms of EKE increase off Peru reaching an amplitude three times as large as that during the 1997/1998 El Niño event, and the 2015/2016 El Niño having instead a weak impact on EKE. This produces decadal changes in EKE, with a similar pattern than that of strong EP El Niño events, resulting in a significant negative (positive) long-term trend off Peru (central Chile).

Is precipitation a good metric for model performance?

Precipitation has often been used to gauge the performances of numerical weather and climate models, sometimes together with other variables such as temperature, humidity, geopotential, and clouds. Precipitation, however, is singular in that it can present a high spatial variability and probably the sharpest gradients amongst all meteorological fields. Moreover, its quantitative measurement is plagued with difficulties and there are even notable differences among different reference datasets. Several additional issues have yield to sometimes question its usefulness in model validation. This essay discusses the use of precipitation for model verification and validation, and the crucial role of highly precise and reliable satellite estimates, such as those from the core observatory of NASA's Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

In search for the sources of plastic marine litter that contaminates the Easter Island Ecoregion.

Subtropical gyres are the oceanic regions where plastic litter accumulates over long timescales, exposing surrounding oceanic islands to plastic contamination, with potentially severe consequences on marine life. Islands' exposure to such contaminants, littered over long distances in marine or terrestrial habitats, is due to the ocean currents that can transport plastic over long ranges. Here, this issue is addressed for the Easter Island ecoregion (EIE). High-resolution ocean circulation models are used with a Lagrangian particle-tracking tool to identify the connectivity patterns of the EIE with industrial fishing areas and coastline regions of the Pacific basin. Connectivity patterns for "virtual" particles either floating (such as buoyant macroplastics) or neutrally-buoyant (smaller microplastics) are investigated. We find that the South American shoreline between 20°S and 40°S, and the fishing zone within international waters off Peru (20°S, 80°W) are associated with the highest probability for debris to reach the EIE, with transit times under 2 years. These regions coincide with the most-densely populated coastal region of Chile and the most-intensely fished region in the South Pacific. The findings offer potential for mitigating plastic contamination reaching the EIE through better upstream waste management. Results also highlight the need for international action plans on this important issue.