Comparing PCSK9 Monoclonal Antibody Treatment Strategies Following Myocardial Infarction Using Negative Control Outcomes: A Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Initiation of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 monoclonal antibody (PCSK9 mAb) for lipid-lowering following myocardial infarction (MI) is likely affected by patients' prognostic factors, potentially leading to bias when comparing real-world treatment effects. METHODS: Using target-trial emulation, we assessed potential confounding when comparing two treatment strategies post-MI: initiation of PCSK9 mAb within 1 year and no initiation of PCSK9 mAb. We identified MI hospitalizations during July 2015-June 2020 for patients aged ≥18 years in Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart (CDM) and MarketScan, and those aged ≥66 in the US Medicare claims database. We estimated a 3-year counterfactual cumulative risk and risk difference (RD) for 10 negative control outcomes using the clone-censor-weight approach to address time-varying confounding and immortal person-time. RESULTS: PCSK9 mAb initiation within 1-year post-MI was low (0.7% in MarketScan and 0.4% in both CDM and Medicare databases). In CDM, there was a lower risk for cancer (RD = -3.6% [95% CI: -4.3%, -2.9%]), decubitus ulcer (RD = -7.7% [95% CI: -11.8%, -3.7%]), fracture (RD = -8.1% [95% CI: -9.6%, -6.6%]), influenza vaccine (RD = -9.3% [95% CI: -17.5%, -1.1%]), and visual test (RD = -0.6% [95% CI: -0.7%, -0.6%]) under the PCSK9 mAb initiation versus no initiation strategy. Similar differences persisted in the MarketScan and Medicare databases. In each database, ezetimibe and low-density lipoprotein testing were unbalanced between treatment strategies. CONCLUSION: A comparative effectiveness study of these treatments using the current approach would likely bias results due to the low number of PCSK9 mAb initiators.

Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Potentially Prevented with Guideline-Recommended Cholesterol-Lowering Therapy following Myocardial Infarction.

PURPOSE: Many adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who are recommended to take a statin, ezetimibe and/or a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor (PCSK9i) by the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guideline do not receive these medications. We estimated the percentage of recurrent ASCVD events potentially prevented with guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy following a myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalization. METHODS: We conducted simulations using data from US adults with government health insurance through Medicare or commercial health insurance in the MarketScan database. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2018-2019 to estimate the percentage receiving guideline-recommended therapy. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2013-2016 to estimate the 3-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ASCVD events (i.e., MI, coronary revascularization or ischemic stroke). The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction with guideline-recommended therapy was derived from trials of statins, ezetimibe and PCSK9i, and the associated ASCVD risk reduction was estimated from a meta-analysis by the Cholesterol-Lowering Treatment Trialists Collaboration. RESULTS: Among 279,395 patients with an MI hospitalization in 2018-2019 (mean age 75 years, mean LDL-C 92 mg/dL), 27.3% were receiving guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy. With current cholesterol-lowering therapy use, 25.3% (95%CI: 25.2%-25.4%) of patients had an ASCVD event over 3 years. If all patients were to receive guideline-recommended therapy, 19.8% (95%CI: 19.5%-19.9%) were estimated to have an ASCVD event over 3 years, representing a 21.6% (95%CI: 20.5%-23.6%) relative risk reduction. CONCLUSION: Implementation of guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy could prevent a substantial percentage of recurrent ASCVD events.

Healthy lifestyle and life expectancy in people with multimorbidity in the UK Biobank: A longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether a healthy lifestyle impacts longevity in the presence of multimorbidity is unclear. We investigated the associations between healthy lifestyle and life expectancy in people with and without multimorbidity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 480,940 middle-aged adults (median age of 58 years [range 38-73], 46% male, 95% white) were analysed in the UK Biobank; this longitudinal study collected data between 2006 and 2010, and participants were followed up until 2016. We extracted 36 chronic conditions and defined multimorbidity as 2 or more conditions. Four lifestyle factors, based on national guidelines, were used: leisure-time physical activity, smoking, diet, and alcohol consumption. A combined weighted score was developed and grouped participants into 4 categories: very unhealthy, unhealthy, healthy, and very healthy. Survival models were applied to predict life expectancy, adjusting for ethnicity, working status, deprivation, body mass index, and sedentary time. A total of 93,746 (19.5%) participants had multimorbidity. During a mean follow-up of 7 (range 2-9) years, 11,006 deaths occurred. At 45 years, in men with multimorbidity an unhealthy score was associated with a gain of 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.3 to 3.3; P = 0.102) additional life years compared to very unhealthy score, though the association was not significant, whilst a healthy score was significantly associated with a gain of 4.5 (3.3 to 5.7; P < 0.001) life years and a very healthy score with 6.3 (5.0 to 7.7; P < 0.001) years. Corresponding estimates in women were 3.5 (95% CI 0.7 to 6.3; P = 0.016), 6.4 (4.8 to 7.9; P < 0.001), and 7.6 (6.0 to 9.2; P < 0.001) years. Results were consistent in those without multimorbidity and in several sensitivity analyses. For individual lifestyle factors, no current smoking was associated with the largest survival benefit. The main limitations were that we could not explore the consistency of our results using a more restrictive definition of multimorbidity including only cardiometabolic conditions, and participants were not representative of the UK as a whole. CONCLUSIONS: In this analysis of data from the UK Biobank, we found that regardless of the presence of multimorbidity, engaging in a healthier lifestyle was associated with up to 6.3 years longer life for men and 7.6 years for women; however, not all lifestyle risk factors equally correlated with life expectancy, with smoking being significantly worse than others.

Efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

AIM: To compare the efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in adults with type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic databases were searched from inception to 24 April 2019 for randomized controlled trials reporting change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) at approximately 24 and/or 52 weeks for SGLT-2is and/or GLP-1RAs (classified as short- and long-acting). Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted to compare within and between SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA classes for cardiometabolic efficacy and adverse events (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018091306). RESULTS: Sixty-four trials (53 trials of 24 weeks; seven trials of 52 weeks; four trials of both 24 and 52 weeks), comprising 31 384 participants were identified. Compared with placebo, all treatments improved HbA1c. Long-acting GLP-1RAs reduced HbA1c compared with short-acting GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is, with semaglutide showing greater reduction compared with placebo [24 weeks: -1.49% (95% credible interval: -1.76, -1.22); 52 weeks: -1.38% (-2.05, -0.71)] and all other treatments. Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed benefits in body weight and waist circumference reduction, while SGLT-2is reduced blood pressure. SGLT-2is showed increased risk of genital infection in comparison with long-acting GLP-1RAs [odds ratio (95% credible interval): 5.26 (1.45, 25.00)], while GLP-1RAs showed increased risk of diarrhoea in comparison with SGLT-2is [short-acting GLP-1RAs: 1.65 (1.09, 2.49); long-acting GLP-1RAs: 2.23 (1.51, 3.28)]. No other differences were found between SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in adverse events. CONCLUSION: Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed superiority in reducing HbA1c levels, body weight and waist circumference. SGLT-2is showed reductions in blood pressure levels. This review provides essential evidence to guide treatment recommendations in the management of type 2 diabetes.

Associations of Hemoglobin Levels With Health-Related Quality of Life, Physical Activity, and Clinical Outcomes in Persons With Stage 3-5 Nondialysis CKD.

OBJECTIVE: Conflicting findings and knowledge gaps exist regarding links between anemia, physical activity, health-related quality of life (HRQOL), chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, and mortality in moderate-to-advanced CKD. Using the CKD Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study, we report associations of hemoglobin (Hgb) with HRQOL and physical activity, and associations of Hgb and physical activity with CKD progression and mortality in stage 3-5 nondialysis (ND)-CKD patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospectively collected data were analyzed from 2,121 ND-CKD stage 3-5 patients, aged ≥18 years, at 43 nephrologist-run US and Brazil CKD Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study-participating clinics. Cross-sectional associations were assessed of Hgb levels with HRQOL and physical activity levels (from validated Kidney Disease Quality of Life Instrument and Rapid Assessment of Physical Activity surveys). CKD progression (first of ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline, eGFR<10 mL/min/1.73 m2, or end-stage kidney disease) and all-cause mortality with Hgb and physical activity levels were also evaluated. Linear, logistic, and Cox regression analyses were adjusted for country, demographics, smoking, eGFR, serum albumin, very high proteinuria, and 13 comorbidities. RESULTS: HRQOL was worse, with severe anemia (Hgb<10 g/dL), but also evident for mild/moderate anemia (Hgb 10-12 g/dL), relative to Hgb>12 g/dL. Odds of being highly physically active were substantially greater at Hgb>10.5 g/dL. Lower Hgb was strongly associated with greater CKD progression and mortality, even after extensive adjustment. Physical inactivity was strongly associated with greater mortality and weakly associated with CKD progression. Possible residual confounding is a limitation. CONCLUSION: This multicenter international study provides real-world observational evidence for greater HRQOL, physical activity, lower CKD progression, and greater survival in ND-CKD patients with Hgb levels >12 g/dL, exceeding current treatment guideline recommendations. These findings help inform future studies aimed at understanding the impact of new anemia therapies and physical activity regimens on improving particular dimensions of ND-CKD patient well-being and clinical outcomes.

Physical activity, multimorbidity, and life expectancy: a UK Biobank longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is an emerging public health priority. Physical activity (PA) is recommended as one of the main lifestyle behaviours, yet the benefits of PA for people with multimorbidity are unclear. We assessed the benefits of PA on mortality and life expectancy in people with and without multimorbidity. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank dataset, we extracted data on 36 chronic conditions and defined multimorbidity as (a) 2 or more conditions, (b) 2 or more conditions combined with self-reported overall health, and (c) 2 or more top-10 most common comorbidities. Leisure-time PA (LTPA) and total PA (TPA) were measured by questionnaire and categorised as low (< 600 metabolic equivalent (MET)-min/week), moderate (600 to < 3000 MET-min/week), and high (≥ 3000 MET-min/week), while objectively assessed PA was assessed by wrist-worn accelerometer and categorised as low (4 min/day), moderate (10 min/day), and high (22 min/day) walking at brisk pace. Survival models were applied to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and predict life expectancy differences. RESULTS: 491,939 individuals (96,622 with 2 or more conditions) had a median follow-up of 7.0 (IQR 6.3-7.6) years. Compared to low LTPA, for participants with multimorbidity, HR for mortality was 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.80) and 0.65 (0.56-0.75) in moderate and high LTPA groups, respectively. This finding was consistent when using TPA measures. Using objective PA, HRs were 0.49 (0.29-0.80) and 0.29 (0.13-0.61) in the moderate and high PA groups, respectively. These findings were similar for participants without multimorbidity. In participants with multimorbidity, at the age of 45 years, moderate and high LTPA were associated with an average of 3.12 (95% CI 2.53, 3.71) and 3.55 (2.34, 4.77) additional life years, respectively, compared to low LTPA; in participants without multimorbidity, corresponding figures were 1.95 (1.59, 2.31) and 1.85 (1.19, 2.50). Similar results were found with TPA. For objective PA, moderate and high levels were associated with 3.60 (- 0.60, 7.79) and 5.32 (- 0.47, 11.11) life years gained compared to low PA for those with multimorbidity and 3.88 (1.79, 6.00) and 4.51 (2.15, 6.88) life years gained in those without. Results were consistent when using other definitions of multimorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: There was an inverse dose-response association between PA and mortality. A moderate exercise is associated with a longer life expectancy, also in individuals with multimorbidity.

Stillbirth Among Women Prescribed Nicotine Replacement Therapy in Pregnancy: Analysis of a Large UK Pregnancy Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to compare risk of stillbirth between maternal smokers and those prescribed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) during pregnancy. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis on a pregnancy cohort of 220,630 singleton pregnancies ending in live or stillbirth between 2001 and 2012 from The Health Improvement Network UK general practice database. Women were categorized into three groups: NRT (prescribed during pregnancy or 1 month before conception); smokers; and controls (nonsmokers without a pregnancy NRT prescription). We calculated Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for stillbirth in the NRT group and smokers compared to controls. RESULTS: A total of 805 pregnancies ended in stillbirth (3.6/1000 births). Absolute risks of stillbirth in NRT and smoker groups were both 5/1000 births compared with 3.5/1000 births in the control group. Compared with the control group, the adjusted odds of stillbirth in the NRT group was not statistically significant (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.00), although it was similar in magnitude to that in the smokers group (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.77). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of a statistically significant association between being prescribed NRT during pregnancy and odds of stillbirth compared with nonsmoking women. Although our study had much larger numbers than any previously, an even larger study with biochemically validated smoking outcome data and close monitoring of NRT use throughout pregnancy is required to exclude effects on findings of potential exposure misclassification.

Comparison of accelerometer-derived physical activity levels between individuals with and without cancer: a UK Biobank study.

Aim: To identify the difference in physical activity (PA) levels between individuals with and without cancer, and to estimate all-cause mortality associated with this difference. Methods: Current cancer, cancer survivor and cancer-free groups were identified from the UK Biobank. We used multivariate and Cox regression to estimate PA differences and association of PA with all-cause mortality. Results: Compared with the cancer-free individuals, participants in the two cancer groups had fewer minutes in moderate-to-vigorous PA per day in adjusted analyses. The PA difference was associated with higher mortality in the current cancer group. Conclusion: Patients with a history of cancer were less active than those without cancer, and PA is associated with increased mortality. PA improvement strategies in cancer patients must be explored.

Global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality in 109 countries, from 2000 to 2014: an analysis of death certificates.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In the context of increasing prevalence of diabetes in elderly people with multimorbidity, intensive glucose control may increase the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, potentially leading to death. While rising trends of severe hypoglycaemia rates have been reported in some European, North American and Asian countries, the global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality is unknown. We aimed to investigate global differences and trends of hypoglycaemia-related mortality. METHODS: We used the WHO mortality database to extract information on death certificates reporting hypoglycaemia or diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and the United Nations demographic database to obtain data on mid-year population estimates from 2000 to 2014. We calculated crude and age-standardised proportions (defined as number of hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by total number of deaths from diabetes [i.e. the sum of hypoglycaemia- and diabetes-related deaths]) and rates (hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by mid-year population) of hypoglycaemia-related mortality and compared estimates across countries and over time. RESULTS: Data for proportions were extracted from 109 countries (31 had data from all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised proportion of hypoglycaemia-related deaths was 4.49 (95% CI 4.44, 4.55) per 1000 total diabetes deaths. Compared with the overall mean, most Central American, South American and (mainly) Caribbean countries reported higher proportions (five more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths in Chile, six in Uruguay, 11 in Belize and 22 in Aruba), as well as Japan (11 more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths). In comparison, lower proportions were noted in most European countries, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For countries with data available for all years analysed, trend analysis showed a 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable trends onwards. Rising trends were most evident for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the USA and Japan. Data for rates were available for 105 countries (30 had data for all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related death rate was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77, 0.80) per 1 million person-years. Most Central American, South American and Caribbean countries similarly reported higher rates of hypoglycaemia-related death, whilst virtually all European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Australia reported lower rates compared with the overall mean. Age-standardised rates were very low for most countries (lower than five per 1 million person-years in 89.5% of countries), resulting in small absolute differences among countries. As noted with the proportions analysis, trend analysis showed an overall 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable rate trends onwards; rising rates were particularly evident for Brazil, Chile and the USA. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Most countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean showed the highest proportions of diabetes-related deaths attributable to hypoglycaemia and the highest rates of hypoglycaemia-related deaths. Between 2000 and 2014, rising trends were observed in Brazil, Chile and the USA for both rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related death, and in Argentina and Japan for proportions only. Further studies are required to unravel the contribution of clinical and socioeconomic factors, difference in diabetes prevalence and heterogeneity of death certification in determining lower rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related deaths in high-income countries in Europe, North America and Asia. DATA AVAILABILITY: Data used for these analyses are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/ndp52fbz8r.1.

Comparison of glucose-lowering agents after dual therapy failure in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: To assess the evidence supporting the choice of third-line agents in adults with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published between January 2000 and July 2017 that reported data on cardiometabolic outcomes and hypoglycaemia for glucose-lowering agents added to metformin-based dual treatments. Data were stratified by background therapy and RCT duration, and synthesized, when possible, with network meta-analyses. RESULTS: A total of 43 RCTs (16 590 participants) were included, with metformin combined with: sulphonylureas (SUs) in 20 RCTs; thiazolidinediones (TZDs) in 10; basal or rapid-acting insulin in 6; dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in 3; glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in 2; and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in 2. When added to metformin and SUs, after 24 to 36 weeks, rapid-acting insulin resulted in the largest reduction in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c; 1.6% vs placebo), followed by GLP-1RAs (1.0%), basal insulin (0.8%) and SGLT-2 inhibitors (0.7%), with no difference between GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors; body weight increased with insulin treatment (~3 kg vs placebo), while the greatest reduction was observed for SGLT-2 inhibitors compared with all other therapies. Limited data for hypoglycaemia indicated a similar risk for SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs. Results for third-line agents added to metformin and TZDs were comparable, showing similar HbA1c reduction and risk of hypoglycaemia between SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs, and a slightly greater reduction in body weight with SGLT-2 inhibitors vs GLP-1RAs. Data for 52 to 54 weeks were more limited: added to metformin and a SU, TZDs, GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2 inhibitors reduced HbA1c to a similar extent but had different effects on body weight (7 kg and 5 kg more with TZDs vs SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs, respectively; 2 kg less when comparing SGLT-2 inhibitors with GLP-1RAs). Formal analyses could not be performed for any other dual therapy failure combinations because of the small number of available RCTs. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-quality evidence supports the choice of a third-line agent only in patients on metformin combined with a SU or a TZD, with SGLT-2 inhibitors performing generally better than other drugs. In suggesting third-line agents, future guidelines should recognize the widely differing evidence on the various dual therapy failures.

Association of walking pace and handgrip strength with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality: a UK Biobank observational study.

AIMS: To quantify the association of self-reported walking pace and handgrip strength with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 230 670 women and 190 057 men free from prevalent cancer and cardiovascular disease were included from UK Biobank. Usual walking pace was self-defined as slow, steady/average or brisk. Handgrip strength was assessed by dynamometer. Cox-proportional hazard models were adjusted for social deprivation, ethnicity, employment, medications, alcohol use, diet, physical activity, and television viewing time. Interaction terms investigated whether age, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status modified associations. Over 6.3 years, there were 8598 deaths, 1654 from cardiovascular disease and 4850 from cancer. Associations of walking pace with mortality were modified by BMI. In women, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality in slow compared with fast walkers were 2.16 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.68-2.77] and 1.31 (1.08-1.60) in the bottom and top BMI tertiles, respectively; corresponding HRs for men were 2.01 (1.68-2.41) and 1.41 (1.20-1.66). Hazard ratios for cardiovascular mortality remained above 1.7 across all categories of BMI in men and women, with modest heterogeneity in men. Handgrip strength was associated with cardiovascular mortality in men only (HR tertile 1 vs. tertile 3 = 1.38; 1.18-1.62), without differences across BMI categories, while associations with all-cause mortality were only seen in men with low BMI. Associations for walking pace and handgrip strength with cancer mortality were less consistent. CONCLUSION: A simple self-reported measure of slow walking pace could aid risk stratification for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality within the general population.

Nonlinear association of BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 414,587 participants in prospective studies.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The relationship between BMI and mortality has been extensively investigated in the general population; however, it is less clear in people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to assess the association of BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: We searched electronic databases up to 1 March 2016 for prospective studies reporting associations for three or more BMI groups with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Study-specific associations between BMI and the most-adjusted RR were estimated using restricted cubic splines and a generalised least squares method before pooling study estimates with a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We included 21 studies including 24 cohorts, 414,587 participants, 61,889 all-cause and 4470 cardiovascular incident deaths; follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 15.9 years. There was a strong nonlinear relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality in both men and women, with the lowest estimated risk from 31-35 kg/m2 and 28-31 kg/m2 (p value for nonlinearity <0.001) respectively. The risk of mortality at higher BMI values increased significantly only in women, whilst lower values were associated with higher mortality in both sexes. Limited data for cardiovascular mortality were available, with a possible inverse linear association with BMI (higher risk for BMI <27 kg/m2). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In type 2 diabetes, BMI is nonlinearly associated with all-cause mortality with lowest risk in the overweight group in both men and women. Further research is needed to clarify the relationship with cardiovascular mortality and assess causality and sex differences.

Predicting hospital stay, mortality and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia: prognostic models derivation and validation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia. METHODS: We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score ('base' model). In the second model, we added to the 'base' model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables ('disease' model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics. RESULTS: In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia.

Risk factors and outcome differences in hypoglycaemia-related hospital admissions: A case-control study in England.

AIMS: To evaluate risk factors for hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia and compare length of hospitalization, inpatient mortality and hospital readmission between hypoglycaemia- and non-hypoglycaemia-related admissions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used all admissions for hypoglycaemia in individuals with diabetes to English NHS hospital trusts between 2005 and 2014 (101 475 case admissions) and 3 random admissions per case in individuals with diabetes without hypoglycaemia (304 425 control admissions). Risk factors and differences in the 3 outcomes were estimated with logistic and negative binomial regressions. RESULTS: A U-shaped relationship between age and risk of admission for hypoglycaemia was observed until the age of 85 years; compared to the nadir at 60 years, the risk was progressively higher in younger and older patients and steadily declined after 85 years. Social deprivation (positively) and comorbidities (negatively) were associated with the risk of admission for hypoglycaemia. Compared to Caucasians, other ethnic groups had lower (Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indians) or higher (Caribbean) risk of admission for hypoglycaemia. Length of hospitalization was 26% shorter while risk of rehospitalization was 65% higher in individuals admitted for hypoglycaemia. Compared to admissions for hypoglycaemia, risk of inpatient mortality was 50% lower for unstable angina but higher for acute myocardial infarction (3 times), acute renal failure (5 times) or pneumonia (8 times). CONCLUSIONS: Among hospital-admitted individuals with diabetes, age, social deprivation, comorbidities and ethnicity are associated with higher frequency of hospitalization for hypoglycaemia. Admission for hypoglycaemia is associated with a greater risk of readmission, a shorter length of hospitalisation and a generally lower inpatient mortality compared to admissions for other medical conditions. These results could help in identifying at-risk groups to reduce the burden of hospitalization for hypoglycaemia.

Long terms trends of multimorbidity and association with physical activity in older English population.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity has become one of the main challenges in the recent years for patients, health care providers and the health care systems globally. However, literature describing the burden of multimorbidity in the elderly population, especially longitudinal trends is very limited. Physical activity is recommended as one of the main lifestyle changes in the prevention and management of multiple chronic diseases worldwide; however, the evidence on its association with multimorbidity remains inconclusive. Therefore, we aimed to assess the longitudinal trends of multimorbidity and the association between multimorbidity and physical activity in a nationally representative cohort of the English population aged ≥50 years between 2002 and 2013. METHODS: We used data on 15,688 core participants from six waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, with complete information on physical activity. Self-reported physical activity was categorised as inactive, mild, moderate and vigorous levels of physical activity. We calculated the number of morbidities and the prevalence of multimorbidity (more than 2 chronic conditions) between 2002 and 2013 overall and by levels of self-reported physical activity. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for multimorbidity by each category of physical activity, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: There was a progressive decrease over time in the proportion of participants without any chronic conditions (33.9% in 2002/2003 vs. 26.8% in 2012/2013). In contrast, the prevalence of multimorbidity steadily increased over time (31.7% in 2002/2003 vs. 43.1% in 2012/2013). Compared to the physically inactive group, the OR for multimorbidity was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) in mild, 0.61 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.66) in moderate and 0.45 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.49) in the vigorous physical activity group. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated an inverse dose-response association between levels of physical activity and multimorbidity, however, given the increasing prevalence of multimorbidity over time, there is a need to explore causal associations between physical activity and multimorbidity and its impact as a primary prevention strategy to prevent the occurrence of chronic conditions later in life and reduce the burden of multimorbidity.

Women with celiac disease present with fertility problems no more often than women in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Studies have associated infertility with celiac disease. However, these included small numbers of women attending infertility specialist services and subsequently screened for celiac disease, and therefore may not have been representative of the general population. We performed a large population-based study of infertility and celiac disease in women from the United Kingdom. METHODS: We identified 2,426,225 women with prospective UK primary care records between 1990 and 2013 during their child-bearing years from The Health Improvement Network database. We estimated age-specific rates of new clinically recorded fertility problems among women with and without diagnosed celiac disease. Rates were stratified by whether celiac disease was diagnosed before the fertility problem or afterward and compared with rates in women without celiac disease using Poisson regression, adjusting for sociodemographics, comorbidities, and calendar time. RESULTS: Age-specific rates of new clinically recorded fertility problems in 6506 women with celiac disease were similar to the rates in women without celiac disease (incidence rate ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.42 among women age 25-29 years). Rates of infertility among women without celiac disease were similar to those of women with celiac disease before and after diagnosis. However, rates were 41% higher among women diagnosed with celiac disease when they were 25-29 years old, compared with women in the same age group without celiac disease (incidence rate ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.92). CONCLUSIONS: Women with celiac disease do not have a greater likelihood of clinically recorded fertility problems than women without celiac disease, either before or after diagnosis, except for higher reports of fertility problems between 25-39 years if diagnosed with CD. These findings should assure most women with celiac disease that they do not have an increased risk for fertility problems.

A comparison of UK primary care data with other national data sources for monitoring the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the potential usefulness of primary care data in the UK for estimating smoking prevalence in pregnancy by comparing the primary care data estimates with those obtained from other data sources. METHODS: In The Health Improvement Network (THIN) primary care database, we identified pregnant smokers using smoking information recorded during pregnancy. Where this information was missing, we used smoking information recorded prior to pregnancy. We compared annual smoking prevalence from 2000 to 2012 in THIN with measures from the Infant Feeding Survey (IFS), Smoking At Time of Delivery (SATOD), Child Health Systems Programme (CHSP) and Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR). RESULTS: Smoking estimates from THIN data converged with estimates from other sources after 2004, though still do not agree completely. For example, in 2012 smoking prevalence at booking was 11.6% in THIN using data recorded only during pregnancy, compared with 19.6% in SMR data. However, the use of smoking data recorded up to 27 months before conception increased the THIN prevalence to 20.3%, improving the comparability. CONCLUSIONS: Under-recording of smoking status during pregnancy results in unreliable prevalence estimates from primary care data and needs improvement. However, in the absence of gestational smoking data, the inclusion of pre-conception smoking records may increase the utility of primary care data. One strategy to improve gestational smoking status recording in primary care could be the inclusion of pregnancy in the Quality and Outcome's Framework as a condition for which smoking status and smoking cessation advice must be recorded electronically in patient records.

Pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes among women with celiac disease: a population-based study from England.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence-based information about adverse birth outcomes and pregnancy complications is crucial when counseling women with celiac disease (CD); however, limited population-based data on such risks exist. We estimated these for pregnant women with CD diagnosed before and after delivery. METHODS: We included all singleton pregnancies between 1997 and 2012 using linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and secondary care Hospital Episode Statistics data. Risks of pregnancy complications (antepartum and postpartum hemorrhage, pre-eclampsia, and mode of delivery) and adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, stillbirth, and low birth weight) were compared between pregnancies of women with and without CD using logistic/multinomial regression. Risks were stratified on the basis of whether women were diagnosed or yet undiagnosed before delivery. RESULTS: Of 363,930 pregnancies resulting in a live birth or stillbirth, 892 (0.25%) were among women with CD. Diagnosed CD was not associated with an increased risk of pregnancy complications or adverse birth outcomes compared with women without CD. However, the risk of postpartum hemorrhage and assisted delivery was slightly higher among pregnant women with diagnosed CD (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.34). We found no increased risk of any pregnancy complication among those with undiagnosed CD. We only observed a 1% absolute excess risk of preterm birth and low birth weight among undiagnosed CD mothers corresponding to aOR=1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.82-1.87) and aOR=1.36 (95% CI=0.83-2.24), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Whether diagnosed or undiagnosed during pregnancy, CD is not associated with a major increased risk of pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes. These findings are reassuring to both women and clinicians.

Smoking cessation advice recorded during pregnancy in United Kingdom primary care.

BACKGROUND: United Kingdom (UK) national guidelines recommend that all pregnant women who smoke should be advised to quit at every available opportunity, and brief cessation advice is an efficient and cost-effective means to increase quit rates. The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) implemented in 2004 requires general practitioners to document their delivery of smoking cessation advice in patient records. However, no specific targets have been set in QOF for the recording of this advice in pregnant women. We used a large electronic primary care database from the UK to quantify the pregnancies in which women who smoked were recorded to have been given smoking cessation advice, and the associated maternal characteristics. METHODS: Using The Health Improvement Network database we calculated annual proportions of pregnant smokers between 2000 and 2009 with cessation advice documented in their medical records during pregnancy. Logistic regression was used to assess variation in the recording of cessation advice with maternal characteristics. RESULTS: Among 45,296 pregnancies in women who smoked, recorded cessation advice increased from 7% in 2000 to 37% in 2004 when the QOF was introduced and reduced slightly to 30% in 2009. Pregnant smokers from the youngest age group (15-19) were 21% more likely to have a record of cessation advice compared to pregnant smokers aged 25-29 (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.10-1.35) and pregnant smokers from the most deprived group were 38% more likely to have a record for cessation advice compared to pregnant smokers from the least deprived group (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.14-1.68). Pregnant smokers with asthma were twice as likely to have documentation of cessation advice in their primary care records compared to pregnant smokers without asthma (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.80-2.16). Presence of comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension and mental illness also increased the likelihood of having smoking cessation advice recorded. No marked variations were observed in the recording of cessation advice with body mass index. CONCLUSION: Recorded delivery of smoking cessation advice for pregnant smokers in primary care has increased with some fluctuation over the years, especially after the implementation of the QOF, and varies with maternal characteristics.

Evolocumab use in clinical practice in Switzerland: final data of the observational HEYMANS cohort study.

AIMS: The HEYMANS study observed patients receiving evolocumab as part of routine clinical hyperlipidemia management. It was designed to capture data on clinical parameters relevant to health authorities and physicians. METHODS: This was a European multi-country observational cohort serial chart review study; data on the Swiss cohort are reported here. Patients were prescribed evolocumab as per the Swiss reimbursement criteria in force at the time and were invited chronologically. The study consisted of a 6-month period prior to initiation of evolocumab, a 12-month core observation period (entered by 75 patients, completed by 74 patients), and an 18-month extended observation period (entered by 40 patients, completed by 34 patients). The primary objective was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients receiving evolocumab. Secondary objectives included to describe lipid levels, evolocumab use, and patterns of use of other lipid-lowering therapies (LLT, that is, statins and/or ezetimibe) over time. The study was conducted in the Swiss cohort between May 2017 and June 2021. RESULTS: Patients who received evolocumab in Swiss routine practice mostly were in secondary prevention (93%) and had a history of statin intolerance (85%) with 53% receiving no background LLT. One-third had familial hypercholesterolemia. Patients initiated evolocumab at a median low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) of 3.6 mmol/L, which decreased by 54% within 3 months to 1.6 mmol/L and was stable thereafter. Overall, 61% achieved the LDL-C goal of <1.4 mmol/L with more patients attaining this goal when they received evolocumab with a statin and/or ezetimibe (84%) compared to 41% when receiving evolocumab alone. An LDL-C reduction of ⩾50% was achieved by 85% of patients. Persistence with evolocumab at 12 months was 85%. CONCLUSION: In Swiss clinical practice, evolocumab was mainly prescribed to patients with very high cardiovascular risk, who had very high LDL-C levels. Most patients continued to use evolocumab throughout the study period. In these patients, LDL-C was reduced by >50% within 3 months and LDL-C reductions were maintained over time. Guideline-recommended LDL-C goals for this very high-risk cohort were more frequently attained in patients receiving a combination of statin and/or ezetimibe and evolocumab. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02770131.