Challenges and opportunities for sustaining coastal wetlands and oyster reefs in the southeastern United States.

Formed at the confluence of marine and fresh waters, estuaries experience both the seaside pressures of rising sea levels and increasing storm severity, and watershed and precipitation changes that are shifting the quality and quantity of freshwater and sediments delivered from upstream sources. Boating, shoreline hardening, harvesting pressure, and other signatures of human activity are also increasing as populations swell in coastal regions. Given this shifting landscape of pressures, the factors most threatening to estuary health and stability are often uncertain. To identify the greatest contemporary threats to coastal wetlands and oyster reefs across the southeastern United States (Mississippi to North Carolina), we summarized recent population growth and land-cover change and surveyed estuarine management and science experts. From 1996 to 2019, human population growth in the region varied from a 17% decrease to a 171% increase (mean = +43%) with only 5 of the 72 SE US counties losing population, and nearly half growing by more than 40%. Individual counties experienced between 999 and 19,253 km2 of new development (mean: 5725 km2), with 1-5% (mean: 2.6%) of undeveloped lands undergoing development over this period across the region. Correspondingly, our survey of 169 coastal experts highlighted development, shoreline hardening, and upstream modifications to freshwater flow as the most important local threats facing coastal wetlands. Similarly, experts identified development, upstream modifications to freshwater flow, and overharvesting as the most important local threats to oyster reefs. With regards to global threats, experts categorized sea level rise as the most pressing to wetlands, and acidification and precipitation changes as the most pressing to oyster reefs. Survey respondents further identified that more research, driven by collaboration among scientists, engineers, industry professionals, and managers, is needed to assess how precipitation changes, shoreline hardening, and sea level rise are affecting coastal ecosystem stability and function. Due to the profound role of humans in shaping estuarine health, this work highlights that engaging property owners, recreators, and municipalities to implement strategies to improve estuarine health will be vital for sustaining coastal systems in the face of global change.

Using vulnerability assessment to characterize coastal protection benefits provided by estuarine habitats of a dynamic intracoastal waterway.

The existence of coastal ecosystems depends on their ability to gain sediment and keep pace with sea level rise. Similar to other coastal areas, Northeast Florida (United States) is experiencing rapid population growth, climate change, and shifting wetland communities. Rising seas and more severe storms, coupled with the intensification of human activities, can modify the biophysical environment, thereby increasing coastal exposure to storm-induced erosion and inundation. Using the Guana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve as a case study, we analyzed the distribution of coastal protection services-expressly, wave attenuation and sediment control-provided by estuarine habitats inside a dynamic Intracoastal waterway. We explored six coastal variables that contribute to coastal flooding and erosion-(a) relief, (b) geomorphology, (c) estuarine habitats, (d) wind exposure, (e) boat wake energy, and (f) storm surge potential-to assess physical exposure to coastal hazards. The highest levels of coastal exposure were found in the north and south sections of the Reserve (9% and 14%, respectively) compared to only 4% in the central, with exposure in the south driven by low wetland elevation, high surge potential, and shorelines composed of less stable sandy and muddy substrate. The most vulnerable areas of the central Reserve and main channel of the Intracoastal waterway were exposed to boat wakes from larger vessels frequently traveling at medium speeds (10-20 knots) and had shoreline segments oriented towards the prevailing winds (north-northeast). To guide management for the recently expanded Reserve into vulnerable areas near the City of Saint Augustine, we evaluated six sites of concern where the current distribution of estuarine habitats (mangroves, salt marshes, and oyster beds) likely play the greatest role in natural protection. Spatially explicit outputs also identified potential elevation maintenance strategies such as living shorelines, landform modification, and mangrove establishment for providing coastal risk-reduction and other ecosystem-service co-benefits. Salt marshes and mangroves in two sites of the central section (N-312 and S-312) were found to protect more than a one-quarter of their cross-shore length (27% and 73%, respectively) from transitioning to the highest exposure category. Proposed interventions for mangrove establishment and living shorelines could help maintain elevation in these sites of concern. This work sets the stage for additional research, education, and outreach about where mangroves, salt marshes, and oyster beds are most likely to reduce risk to wetland communities in the region.