Estimating and Presenting Hazard Ratios and Absolute Risks from a Cox Model with Complex Non-linear Interactions.

Interaction analysis is a critical component of clinical and public health research and represents a key topic in precision health and medicine. In applied settings, however, interaction assessment is usually limited to the test of a product term in a regression model, and to the presentation of stratified results over levels of additional covariates. Results stratification often relies on categorizing or making linearity assumptions for continuous covariates, with substantial loss of precision and of relevant information. In time-to-event analysis, moreover, interaction assessment is often limited to the multiplicative hazard scale by inclusion of a product terms in a Cox regression model, disregarding the clinically relevant information that are captured by the absolute risk scale. In this paper we present a user-friendly procedure, based on the prediction of individual absolute risks from the Cox model, for the estimation and presentation of interactive effects on both the multiplicative and additive scale in survival analysis. We describe how to flexibly incorporate interactions with continuous covariates, which potentially operate in a non-linear fashion, we provide software material to replicate our procedure, and discuss different approaches to derive confidence intervals. The presented approach will allow clinical and public health researchers assessing complex relationships between multiple covariates as they relate to a clinical endpoint, and providing a more intuitive and precise depiction of the results in applied research papers focusing on interaction and effect stratification.

MRI-Targeted or Standard Biopsy in Prostate Cancer Screening.

BACKGROUND: High rates of overdiagnosis are a critical barrier to organized prostate cancer screening. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with targeted biopsy has shown the potential to address this challenge, but the implications of its use in the context of organized prostate cancer screening are unknown. METHODS: We conducted a population-based noninferiority trial of prostate cancer screening in which men 50 to 74 years of age from the general population were invited by mail to participate; participants with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 3 ng per milliliter or higher were randomly assigned, in a 2:3 ratio, to undergo a standard biopsy (standard biopsy group) or to undergo MRI, with targeted and standard biopsy if the MRI results suggested prostate cancer (experimental biopsy group). The primary outcome was the proportion of men in the intention-to-treat population in whom clinically significant cancer (Gleason score ≥7) was diagnosed. A key secondary outcome was the detection of clinically insignificant cancers (Gleason score 6). RESULTS: Of 12,750 men enrolled, 1532 had PSA levels of 3 ng per milliliter or higher and were randomly assigned to undergo biopsy: 603 were assigned to the standard biopsy group and 929 to the experimental biopsy group. In the intention-to-treat analysis, clinically significant cancer was diagnosed in 192 men (21%) in the experimental biopsy group, as compared with 106 men (18%) in the standard biopsy group (difference, 3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1 to 7; P<0.001 for noninferiority). The percentage of clinically insignificant cancers was lower in the experimental biopsy group than in the standard biopsy group (4% [41 participants] vs. 12% [73 participants]; difference, -8 percentage points; 95% CI, -11 to -5). CONCLUSIONS: MRI with targeted and standard biopsy in men with MRI results suggestive of prostate cancer was noninferior to standard biopsy for detecting clinically significant prostate cancer in a population-based screening-by-invitation trial and resulted in less detection of clinically insignificant cancer. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council and others; STHLM3-MRI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03377881.).

Side effects of low-dose tamoxifen: results from a six-armed randomised controlled trial in healthy women.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to adjuvant tamoxifen therapy is suboptimal, and acceptance of tamoxifen for primary prevention is poor. Published results indicate effect of low-dose tamoxifen therapy. Using questionnaire data from a randomised controlled trial, we describe side effects of standard and low-dose tamoxifen in healthy women. METHODS: In the KARISMA trial, 1440 healthy women were randomised to 6 months of daily intake of 20, 10, 5, 2.5, 1 mg of tamoxifen or placebo. Participants completed a 48-item, five-graded Likert score symptom questionnaire at baseline and follow-up. Linear regression models were used to identify significant changes in severity levels across doses and by menopausal status. RESULTS: Out of 48 predefined symptoms, five were associated with tamoxifen exposure (hot flashes, night sweats, cold sweats, vaginal discharge and muscle cramps). When comparing these side effects in premenopausal women randomised to low doses (2.5, 5 mg) versus high doses (10, 20 mg), the mean change was 34% lower in the low-dose group. No dose-dependent difference was seen in postmenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms related to tamoxifen therapy are influenced by menopausal status. Low-dose tamoxifen, in contrast to high-dose, was associated with less pronounced side effects, a finding restricted to premenopausal women. Our findings give new insights which may influence future dosing strategies of tamoxifen in both the adjuvant and preventive settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03346200.

Prostate cancer screening using a combination of risk-prediction, MRI, and targeted prostate biopsies (STHLM3-MRI): a prospective, population-based, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Screening for prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) reduces prostate cancer mortality but can lead to adverse outcomes. We aimed to compare a traditional screening approach with a diagnostic strategy of blood-based risk prediction combined with MRI-targeted biopsies. METHODS: We did a prospective, population-based, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial (STHLM3-MRI) in Stockholm county, Sweden. Men aged 50-74 years were randomly selected by Statistics Sweden and invited by mail to participate in screening; those with an elevated risk of prostate cancer, defined as either a PSA of 3 ng/mL or higher or a Stockholm3 score of 0·11 or higher were eligible for randomisation. Men with a previous prostate cancer diagnosis, who had undergone a prostate biopsy within 60 days before the invitation to participate, with a contraindication for MRI, or with severe illness were excluded. Eligible participants were randomly assigned (2:3) using computer-generated blocks of five, stratified by clinically significant prostate cancer risk, to receive either systematic prostate biopsies (standard group) or biparametric MRI followed by MRI-targeted and systematic biopsy in MRI-positive participants (experimental group). The primary outcome was the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer at prostate biopsy, defined as a Gleason score of 3 + 4 or higher. We used a margin of 0·78 to assess non-inferiority for the primary outcome. Key secondary outcome measures included the proportion of men with clinically insignificant prostate cancer (defined as a Gleason score of 3 + 3), and the number of any prostate MRI and biopsy procedures done. We did two comparisons: Stockholm3 (using scores of 0·11 and 0·15 as cutoffs) versus PSA in the experimental group (paired analyses) and PSA plus standard biopsy versus Stockholm3 plus MRI-targeted and systematic biopsy (unpaired, randomised analyses). All analyses were intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03377881. FINDINGS: Between Feb 5, 2018, and March 4, 2020, 49 118 men were invited to participate, of whom 12 750 were enrolled and provided blood specimens, and 2293 with elevated risk were randomly assigned to the experimental group (n=1372) or the standard group (n=921). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer was 0·76 (95% CI 0·72-0·80) for Stockholm3 and 0·60 (0·54-0·65) for PSA. In the experimental group, a Stockholm3 of 0·11 or higher was non-inferior to a PSA of 3 ng/mL or higher for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (227 vs 192; relative proportion [RP] 1·18 [95% CI 1·09-1·28], p<0·0001 for non-inferiority), and also detected a similar number of low-grade prostate cancers (50 vs 41; 1·22 [0·96-1·55], p=0·053 for superiority) and was associated with more MRIs and biopsies. Compared with PSA of 3 ng/mL or higher, a Stockholm3 of 0·15 or higher provided identical sensitivity to detect clinically significant cancer, and led to fewer MRI procedures (545 vs 846; 0·64 [0·55-0·82]) and fewer biopsy procedures (311 vs 338; 0·92 (0·86-1·03). Compared with screening using PSA and systematic biopsies, a Stockholm3 of 0·11 or higher combined with MRI-targeted and systematic biopsies was associated with higher detection of clinically significant cancers (227 [3·0%] men tested vs 106 [2·1%] men tested; RP 1·44 [95% CI 1·15-1·81]), lower detection of low-grade cancers (50 [0·7%] vs 73 [1·4%]; 0·46 [0·32-0·66]), and led to fewer biopsy procedures. Patients randomly assigned to the experimental group had a lower incidence of prescription of antibiotics for infection (25 [1·8%] of 1372 vs 41 [4·4%] of 921; p=0·0002) and a lower incidence of admission to hospital (16 [1·2%] vs 31 [3·4%]; p=0·0003) than those in the standard group. INTERPRETATION: The Stockholm3 test can inform risk stratification before MRI and targeted biopsies in prostate cancer screening. Combining the Stockholm3 test with an MRI-targeted biopsy approach for prostate cancer screening decreases overdetection while maintaining the ability to detect clinically significant cancer. FUNDING: The Swedish Cancer Society, the Swedish Research Council, and Stockholm City Council.

Opioid Use After Intensive Care: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe opioid use after ICU admission, identify factors associated with chronic opioid use after critical care, and determine if chronic opioid use is associated with an increased risk of death. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Sweden including all registered ICU admissions between 2010 and 2018. PATIENTS: Adults surviving the first two quarters after ICU admission were eligible for inclusion. A total of 265,496 patients were screened and 61,094 were ineligible. INTERVENTIONS: Admission to intensive care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 204,402 individuals included in the cohort, 22,138 developed chronic opioid use following critical care. Mean opioid consumption peaked after admission followed by a continuous decline without returning to baseline during follow-up of 24 months. Factors associated with chronic opioid use included high age, female sex, presence of comorbidities, preadmission opioid use, and ICU length of stay greater than 2 days. Adjusted hazard ratio for death 6-18 months after admission for chronic opioid users was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.6-1.7; p < 0.001). In the subset of patients not using opioids prior to admission, similar findings were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Mean opioid consumption is increased 24 months after ICU admission despite the lack of evidence for long-term opioid treatment. Given the high number of ICU entries and risk of excess mortality for chronic users, preventing opioid misuse is important when improving long-term outcomes after critical care.

Subsequent primary neoplasms among bone sarcoma survivors; increased risks remain after 30 years of follow-up and in the latest treatment era, a nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term risks and time trends of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) among Ewing (ES) and osteosarcoma (OS) survivors are not fully understood. METHODS: We performed a nationwide study of all ES and OS patients identified in the Swedish Cancer Registry from 1958 to 2015 with up to 58 years of follow-up. The risk of SPN was compared with that of the general population using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs). RESULTS: One hundred and fifteen SPNs were diagnosed among 1779 patients with ES or OS, yielding an overall SIR of 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.9-2.7). The risk remained significantly increased in the latest treatment era (SIR2000-2015 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5). The highest absolute excess risks (AER) was due to breast cancer (AER 15.2/10,000 person-years; 95% CI, 5.0-29.8) followed by female genital malignancies (AER 9.5/10,000 person-years; 95% CI, 2.4-21.5). The excess breast cancer risk among ES survivors was noted also after 30 years of follow-up with 127 extra breast cancers/10,000 person-years (95% CI, 6.6-419). CONCLUSIONS: Breast- and female genital malignancies contribute most to the excess risk of SPN among ES and OS survivors. Importantly, excess risks did not decline over calendar time or long-term follow-up.

Education Level, Monthly Per-Capita Expenditure, and Healthy Aging in the Older Indonesian Population: The Indonesia Family Life Survey 2007 and 2014.

In developed countries, the relationship between education level, wealth, and healthy aging have been found to be mediated by modifiable risk factors, such as obesity, physical activities, and smoking status. The present study was to investigate the association between education level, monthly per-capita expenditure (PCE), and healthy aging in the older Indonesian population, and to clarify modifiable risk factors that mediate this association. A 7-year prospective longitudinal study (2007-2014) was conducted on 696 older Indonesian individuals (≥ 50 years) living in 13 different provinces in Indonesia during the survey periods. Data on educational level, PCE, and modifiable risk factors were collected in 2007. Information on healthy aging was obtained in both 2007 and 2014. A multivariate-adjusted logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratio (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for healthy aging by education level and PCE. The mediating effects were estimated using a four-way effect decomposition. Out of 696 eligible subjects, 206 (29.6%) were judged as healthy aging in 2014. The OR (95% CI) for healthy aging for participants with a higher education level was 1.81 (1.23-2.65) compared with those with a lower education level, and no significant association was observed between PCE and healthy aging. An association was thus observed between education level and healthy aging, but not PCE. Importantly, the association between education level, PCE, and healthy aging does not appear to be mediated by the modifiable risk factors. Priorities in making health policy would be different between developed countries and developing countries.

Human hantavirus infection elicits pronounced redistribution of mononuclear phagocytes in peripheral blood and airways.

Hantaviruses infect humans via inhalation of virus-contaminated rodent excreta. Infection can cause severe disease with up to 40% mortality depending on the viral strain. The virus primarily targets the vascular endothelium without direct cytopathic effects. Instead, exaggerated immune responses may inadvertently contribute to disease development. Mononuclear phagocytes (MNPs), including monocytes and dendritic cells (DCs), orchestrate the adaptive immune responses. Since hantaviruses are transmitted via inhalation, studying immunological events in the airways is of importance to understand the processes leading to immunopathogenesis. Here, we studied 17 patients infected with Puumala virus that causes a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Bronchial biopsies as well as longitudinal blood draws were obtained from the patients. During the acute stage of disease, a significant influx of MNPs expressing HLA-DR, CD11c or CD123 was detected in the patients' bronchial tissue. In parallel, absolute numbers of MNPs were dramatically reduced in peripheral blood, coinciding with viremia. Expression of CCR7 on the remaining MNPs in blood suggested migration to peripheral and/or lymphoid tissues. Numbers of MNPs in blood subsequently normalized during the convalescent phase of the disease when viral RNA was no longer detectable in plasma. Finally, we exposed blood MNPs in vitro to Puumala virus, and demonstrated an induction of CCR7 expression on MNPs. In conclusion, the present study shows a marked redistribution of blood MNPs to the airways during acute hantavirus disease, a process that may underlie the local immune activation and contribute to immunopathogenesis in hantavirus-infected patients.

Combined Healthy Lifestyle Behaviors and Disability-Free Survival: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that a healthy lifestyle (HL) may prolong the years of life spent in good health. However, the impact of HL on disability-free survival (DFS) among the elderly is still uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between HL and DFS in the general elderly population. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with a 10-year follow-up (2006-2016). PARTICIPANTS: 9910 community-dwelling elderly people (≥ 65 years). MAIN MEASURES: A HL index derived by summing the number of HL behaviors. Data on incident disability were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance database. Multivariate-adjusted 50th percentile differences (PDs) in age at disability or death (months) and their 95% CIs were estimated with the Laplace regression model. KEY RESULTS: During the 10 years, 4562 disability or death events occurred. Participants who adhered to all three HL behaviors lived 17.1 (95% CI 12.7, 21.5) months longer without disability than those who adhered to zero or one. Each 1-point increase of the index score conferred 8.8 months additional life without disability. The tendency for the 50th PDs to increase with a higher HL index score did not differ according to age (< 75 or ≥ 75 years), sex, or the presence of chronic conditions (none, or ≥ 1 chronic condition). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of HL behaviors may substantially increase DFS, even for late-elderly (≥ 75 years), or elderly people with chronic conditions.

Associations Between Crowding and Ten-Day Mortality Among Patients Allocated Lower Triage Acuity Levels Without Need of Acute Hospital Care on Departure From the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe the association between emergency department (ED) crowding and 10-day mortality for patients triaged to lower acuity levels at ED arrival and without need of acute hospital care on ED departure. METHODS: This was a registry study based on ED visits with all patients aged 18 years or older, with triage acuity levels 3 to 5, and without need of acute hospital care on ED departure during 2009 to 2016 (n=705,699). The sample was divided into patients surviving (n=705,076) or dying (n=623) within 10 days. Variables concerning patient characteristics and measures of ED crowding (mean length of stay and ED occupancy ratio) were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records. ED length of stay per ED visit was estimated by the average length of stay for all patients who presented to the ED during the same day and shift and with the same acuity level. The 10-day mortality after ED discharge was used as the outcome measure. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The 10-day mortality rate was 0.09% (n=623). The event group had larger proportions of patients aged 80 years or older (51.4% versus 7.7%) and triaged with acuity level 3 (63.3% versus 35.6%), and greater comorbidity (age-combined Charlson comorbidity index median interquartile range 6 versus 0). We observed an increased 10-day mortality for patients with a mean ED length of stay greater than or equal to 8 hours versus less than 2 hours (adjusted odds ratio 5.86; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.15 to 15.94) and for elevated ED occupancy ratio. Adjusted odds ratios for ED occupancy ratio quartiles 2, 3, and 4 versus quartile 1 were 1.48 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.92), 1.63 (95% CI 1.24 to 2.14), and 1.53 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.03), respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients assigned to lower triage acuity levels when arriving to the ED and without need of acute hospital care on departure from the ED had higher 10-day mortality when the mean ED length of stay exceeded 8 hours and when ED occupancy ratio increased.

Risk Behaviors Associated with Alcohol Consumption Predict Future Severe Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Excess consumption of alcohol can lead to cirrhosis, but it is unclear whether the type of alcohol and pattern of consumption affects this risk. AIMS: We aimed to investigate whether type and pattern of alcohol consumption early in life could predict development of severe liver disease. METHODS: We examined 43,242 adolescent men conscribed to military service in Sweden in 1970. Self-reported data on total amount and type of alcohol (wine, beer, and spirits) and risk behaviors associated with heavy drinking were registered. Population-based registers were used to ascertain incident cases of severe liver disease (defined as cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver-related mortality). Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for development of severe liver disease. RESULTS: During follow-up, 392 men developed severe liver disease. In multivariable analysis, after adjustment for BMI, smoking, use of narcotics, cardiovascular fitness, cognitive ability, and total amount of alcohol, an increased risk for severe liver disease was found in men who reported drinking alcohol to alleviate a hangover ("eye-opener"; aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.02-2.11) and men who reported having been apprehended for being drunk (aHR 2.17, 95% CI 1.63-2.90), but not for any other risk behaviors. Wine consumption was not associated with a reduced risk for severe liver disease compared to beer and spirits. CONCLUSIONS: Certain risk behaviors can identify young men with a high risk of developing severe liver disease. Wine consumption was not associated with a reduced risk for severe liver disease compared to beer and spirits.

Alcohol consumption in late adolescence is associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease later in life.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: High alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease. Current recommendations suggest it is safe for men to consume 30 grams of alcohol per day. We investigated the association between alcohol consumption early in life and later development of severe liver disease. METHODS: We used data on alcohol consumption at conscription to military service from 43,296 men (18-20 years) in Sweden between 1969 and 1970. Outcomes were defined as incident diagnoses of severe liver disease from systematic national registration of clinical events until the end of 2009. A Cox regression model adjusted for body mass index, smoking, use of narcotics, cognitive ability and cardiovascular capacity was applied. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 37.8 years, 383 men developed severe liver disease. Alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of development of severe liver disease in a dose-response pattern (adjusted hazard ratio for every one gram/day increase 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.02). No evidence of a threshold effect was found. Importantly, a clear trend pointed towards an increased risk of severe liver disease in men who consumed less than 30 grams of alcohol per day. CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption in young men is associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease, up to 39 years later in life. The risk was dose-dependent, with no sign of a threshold effect. Current guidelines for safe alcohol intake in men might have to be revised. LAY SUMMARY: We investigated more than 43,000 Swedish men in their late teens enlisted for conscription in 1969-1970. After almost 40 years of follow-up, we found that alcohol consumption was a significant risk factor for developing severe liver disease, independent of confounders. This risk was dose-dependent, and was most pronounced in men consuming two drinks per day or more.

Pancreatic Cancer Following Acute Pancreatitis: A Population-based Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis is linked to pancreatic cancer, but the direction of this association is not fully elaborated. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study including all Swedish residents diagnosed with a first-time episode of acute pancreatitis between 1997 and 2013 and corresponding matched pancreatitis-free individuals from the general population. Hazard ratios for the association between acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: Overall, 49,749 individuals with acute pancreatitis and 138,750 matched individuals without acute pancreatitis were followed up for 1,192,134 person-years (median 5.3 years). A total of 769 individuals developed pancreatic cancer, of whom 536 (69.7%) had a history of acute pancreatitis. The risk of pancreatic cancer was substantially increased during the first few years after a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis but declined gradually over time, reaching a level comparable to the pancreatitis-free population after >10 years of follow-up. In those with non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis, the risk of pancreatic cancer declined to a level comparable to the pancreatitis-free population only when follow-up time was censored for a second episode of acute pancreatitis or a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis. Increasing number of recurrent episodes of acute pancreatitis was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSION: These findings imply a delay in the diagnosis of pre-existing pancreatic cancer, if clinically presented as acute pancreatitis. Any association between non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in the long-term (>10 years) could be mediated through recurrent acute pancreatitis or chronic pancreatitis.

Red and processed meat consumption and risk of bladder cancer: a dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Several epidemiological studies have analyzed the associations between red and processed meat and bladder cancer risk but the shape and strength of the associations are still unclear. Therefore, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis to quantify the potential association between red and processed meat and bladder cancer risk. METHODS: Relevant studies were identified by searching the PubMed database through January 2016 and reviewing the reference lists of the retrieved articles. Results were combined using random-effects models. RESULTS: Five cohort studies with 3262 cases and 1,038,787 participants and 8 cases-control studies with 7009 cases and 27,240 participants met the inclusion criteria. Red meat was linearly associated with bladder cancer risk in case-control studies, with a pooled RR of 1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13, 2.02) for every 100 g increase per day, while no association was observed among cohort studies (P heterogeneity across study design = 0.02). Based on both case-control and cohort studies, the pooled relative risk (RR) for every 50 g increase of processed meat per day was 1.20 (95% CI 1.06, 1.37) (P heterogeneity across study design = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that processed meat may be positively associated with bladder cancer risk. A positive association between red meat and risk of bladder cancer was observed only in case-control studies, while no association was observe in prospective studies.

Overall diet quality and risk of recurrence and progression of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: An incident episode of acute pancreatitis is often followed by recurrent attacks and/or progression to chronic pancreatitis, especially if the etiology is non-gallstone-related. We examined whether overall diet quality influences the natural history of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-six individuals (born 1914-1952) were included in a prospective study, all of whom had an incident diagnosis of non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1998 and 2013. Participants were already enrolled in two population-based cohorts and had completed a food frequency questionnaire in 1997. Overall diet quality was calculated using a recommended food score (RFS), which was based on 25 food items. Post-diagnosis follow-up was conducted throughout 2014 for recurrence of acute pancreatitis and/or progression to chronic pancreatic disease (including cancer). Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models. RESULTS: During 1859 person-years of follow-up, 23.3% of the study population (n = 90) developed recurrent or progressive pancreatic disease. An inverse association was observed between the RFS and risk of recurrent and progressive pancreatic disease after adjustment for age and sex (hazard ratio for each 2-unit increase 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.01) (P overall association = 0.06). However, the association became weaker and was not statistically significant after adjustment for other potential confounders, including alcohol drinking and cigarette smoking (P overall association = 0.27). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study of individuals with non-gallstone-related acute pancreatitis, there was no clear association between overall diet quality and risk of recurrent and progressive pancreatic disease.

Changes in fruit, vegetable and juice consumption after the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: a prospective study in men.

Given the importance of prevention of complications in type 2 diabetes (T2D), we aimed to examine changes over time in consumption of fruits, vegetables and juice among men who were diagnosed with T2D in comparison with men without diabetes. The prospective Cohort of Swedish Men, aged 45-79 years in 1997, was used to examine changes in diet after diagnosis of T2D. Dietary intake was assessed using FFQ in 1997 and 2009. In all, 23 953 men who were diabetes free at baseline (1997) and completed both FFQ were eligible to participate in the study. Diagnosis of T2D was reported by subjects and ascertained through registers. Multivariable linear mixed models were used to examine changes in mean servings/week over time. In total, 1741 men developed T2D during the study period. Increased consumption of vegetables and fruits was observed among those who developed T2D (equivalent to 1·6 servings/week, 95 % CI 1·08, 2·03) and men who remained diabetes free (0·7 servings/week, 95 % CI 0·54, 0·84). Consumption of juice decreased by 0·6 servings/week (95 % CI -0·71, -0·39) among those who developed T2D and increased by 0·1 servings/week (95 % CI 0·05, 0·15) in those who were diabetes free. Changes over time and between groups were statistically significant. Although improvements in diet were observed, only 36 % of those with T2D and 35 % of those without diabetes consumed ≥5 servings of fruits and vegetables/d in 2009.

End-stage renal disease after occupational lead exposure: 20†years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: Whether low-level exposure to lead may give rise to chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is debated. In this study, we aimed to specifically investigate if low-level occupational exposure to lead was associated with increased incidence of ESRD. METHODS: The incidence of starting renal replacement therapy as a result of ESRD was examined in a cohort of10 303 lead-workers who had controlled blood lead concentrations due to a compulsory occupational health surveillance programme in Sweden during the time period 1977-1990. The ESRD incidence (obtained through register-linkage) among the lead-exposed workers was compared with the age, sex and calendar period-adjusted expected incidence based on data from the Swedish renal registry. Dose-response association was evaluated in external (general population) and internal (within the occupational cohort) comparisons by highest achieved blood lead level. RESULTS: There were 30 (0.29%) individuals in the cohort who developed ESRD during the median follow-up period of 26.3 years. The standardised incidence ratio (SIR) for ESRD incidence was 0.79 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.13). Among those who achieved the highest blood lead (>41.4 µg/dL), the SIR was 1.01 (0.44 to 1.99). There was no evidence of a dose-response relationship between the maximum achieved blood lead or the cumulative blood lead exposure and ESRD in external or internal comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: This study of workers with documented occupational lead exposures followed for 20 years shows no statistically significant association between lead exposure (following the current occupational recommendations for Sweden) and ESRD.

Using Laplace Regression to Model and Predict Percentiles of Age at Death When Age Is the Primary Time Scale.

Increasingly often in epidemiologic research, associations between survival time and predictors of interest are measured by differences between distribution functions rather than hazard functions. For example, differences in percentiles of survival time, expressed in absolute time units (e.g., weeks), may complement the popular risk ratios, which are unitless measures. When analyzing time to an event of interest (e.g., death) in prospective cohort studies, the time scale can be set to start at birth or at study entry. The advantages of one time origin over the other have been thoroughly explored for the estimation of risks but not for the estimation of survival percentiles. In this paper, we analyze the use of different time scales in the estimation of survival percentiles with Laplace regression. Using this regression method, investigators can estimate percentiles of survival time over levels of an exposure of interest while adjusting for potential confounders. Our findings may help to improve modeling strategies and ease interpretation in the estimation of survival percentiles in prospective cohort studies.