Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

1.36 million years of Mediterranean forest refugium dynamics in response to glacial-interglacial cycle strength.

The sediment record from Lake Ohrid (Southwestern Balkans) represents the longest continuous lake archive in Europe, extending back to 1.36 Ma. We reconstruct the vegetation history based on pollen analysis of the DEEP core to reveal changes in vegetation cover and forest diversity during glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycles and early basin development. The earliest lake phase saw a significantly different composition rich in relict tree taxa and few herbs. Subsequent establishment of a permanent steppic herb association around 1.2 Ma implies a threshold response to changes in moisture availability and temperature and gradual adjustment of the basin morphology. A change in the character of G-IG cycles during the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition is reflected in the record by reorganization of the vegetation from obliquity- to eccentricity-paced cycles. Based on a quantitative analysis of tree taxa richness, the first large-scale decline in tree diversity occurred around 0.94 Ma. Subsequent variations in tree richness were largely driven by the amplitude and duration of G-IG cycles. Significant tree richness declines occurred in periods with abundant dry herb associations, pointing to aridity affecting tree population survival. Assessment of long-term legacy effects between global climate and regional vegetation change reveals a significant influence of cool interglacial conditions on subsequent glacial vegetation composition and diversity. This effect is contrary to observations at high latitudes, where glacial intensity is known to control subsequent interglacial vegetation, and the evidence demonstrates that the Lake Ohrid catchment functioned as a refugium for both thermophilous and temperate tree species.

Deep drilling reveals massive shifts in evolutionary dynamics after formation of ancient ecosystem.

The scarcity of high-resolution empirical data directly tracking diversity over time limits our understanding of speciation and extinction dynamics and the drivers of rate changes. Here, we analyze a continuous species-level fossil record of endemic diatoms from ancient Lake Ohrid, along with environmental and climate indicator time series since lake formation 1.36 million years (Ma) ago. We show that speciation and extinction rates nearly simultaneously decreased in the environmentally dynamic phase after ecosystem formation and stabilized after deep-water conditions established in Lake Ohrid. As the lake deepens, we also see a switch in the macroevolutionary trade-off, resulting in a transition from a volatile assemblage of short-lived endemic species to a stable community of long-lived species. Our results emphasize the importance of the interplay between environmental/climate change, ecosystem stability, and environmental limits to diversity for diversification processes. The study also provides a new understanding of evolutionary dynamics in long-lived ecosystems.

Seasonality modulates the predictive skills of diatom based salinity transfer functions.

The value of diatoms as bioindicators in contemporary and palaeolimnological studies through transfer function development has increased in the last decades. While such models represent a tremendous advance in (palaeo) ecology, they leave behind important sources of uncertainties that are often ignored. In the present study we tackle two of the most important sources of uncertainty in the development of diatom salinity inference models: the effect of secondary variables associated to seasonality and the comparison of conventional cross-validation methods with a validation based on independent datasets. Samples (diatoms and environmental variables) were taken in spring, summer and autumn in the freshwater and brackish ditches of the province of North Holland in 1993. Different locations of the same province were sampled again in 2008-2010 to validate the models. We found that the abundance of the dominant species significantly changed between the seasons, leading to inconsistent estimates of species optima and tolerances. A model covering intra-annual variability (all seasons combined) provides averages of species optima and tolerances, reduces the effect of secondary variables due to the seasonality effects, thus providing the strongest relationship between salinity and diatom species. In addition, the ¨all-season¨ model also reduces the edge effects usually found in all unimodal-based calibration methods. While based on cross-validation all four models seem to perform relatively well, a validation with an independent dataset emphasizes the importance of using models covering intra-annual variability to perform realistic reconstructions.

Columbus' environmental impact in the New World: Land use change in the Yaque River valley, Dominican Republic.

Columbus' arrival in the New World in AD 1492 on the northern coast of Hispaniola was followed by a suite of changes in land-use. We reconstruct environmental change from a 225-cm-long sediment core from site Los Indios from an abandoned and sediment-filled meander of the Yaque River, Cibao Valley, northeastern Dominican Republic. The sediment record starts ca. AD 195 (ca. 1755 cal. yr BP) and the history of the meander infill was monitored by changing grain size distributions, organic matter concentration and pollen from wetland plants. From ca. AD 200 to ca. AD 1525, the pollen record indicates a diverse forest assemblage; however, the presence of pollen from potential crop plants suggest nearby small-scale subsistence crop cultivation. More abundant charcoal after ca. AD 1410 shows Amerindians increasingly used fire. The record of grain size distributions shows that the meander was temporarily part of a low energetic drainage system in which bedload and suspended sediments accumulated. After European colonization of Hispaniola increasing spores of coprophilous fungi evidence that Europeans had introduced during the first decades of colonization cattle in the Cibao Valley which gradually resulted in more open forest. The charcoal record around ca. AD 1650 reflects intensive forest clearing, suggesting that small-scale Pre-Colonial practice of crop cultivation became replaced by large-scale agriculture on the moist and nutrient rich soils along the Yaque River. Further deforestation and signals of erosion suggest that the population of colonists and introduced enslaved labour force must have increased rapidly. After ca. AD 1740 charcoal influx decreased suggesting that last deforestation activities used selective cutting to produce fire wood and timber for construction, rather than burning forest in situ. Two centuries after European colonization, by the 18th century, land-use within the Cibao Valley had become a balance between substantial livestock and crop cultivation (pollen grains have evidenced cereals, maize, and potentially also sugar cane, amaranthaceous crops and tobacco). After ca. AD 1950, swamp vegetation of Typha and Cyperaceae decreased, pointing to an almost fully terrestrialized meander with only few bodies of standing water, reflecting the present-day setting. This multiproxy reconstruction of anthropogenic environmental change shows a clear differentiation between an immediate introduction of livestock and after some 150 years the development of a European style agriculture, providing a context for archaeological investigations.

Forensic Comparison of Soil Samples Using Nondestructive Elemental Analysis.

Soil can play an important role in forensic cases in linking suspects or objects to a crime scene by comparing samples from the crime scene with samples derived from items. This study uses an adapted ED-XRF analysis (sieving instead of grinding to prevent destruction of microfossils) to produce elemental composition data of 20 elements. Different data processing techniques and statistical distances were evaluated using data from 50 samples and the log-LR cost (Cllr ). The best performing combination, Canberra distance, relative data, and square root values, is used to construct a discriminative model. Examples of the spatial resolution of the method in crime scenes are shown for three locations, and sampling strategy is discussed. Twelve test cases were analyzed, and results showed that the method is applicable. The study shows how the combination of an analysis technique, a database, and a discriminative model can be used to compare multiple soil samples quickly.

Multi-Year Leaf-Level Response to Sub-Ambient and Elevated Experimental CO2 in Betula nana.

The strong link between stomatal frequency and CO2 in woody plants is key for understanding past CO2 dynamics, predicting future change, and evaluating the significant role of vegetation in the hydrological cycle. Experimental validation is required to evaluate the long-term adaptive leaf response of C3 plants to CO2 conditions; however, studies to date have only focused on short-term single-season experiments and may not capture (1) the full ontogeny of leaves to experimental CO2 exposure or (2) the true adjustment of structural stomatal properties to CO2, which we postulate is likely to occur over several growing seasons. We conducted controlled growth chamber experiments at 150 ppmv, 450 ppmv and 800 ppmv CO2 with woody C3 shrub Betula nana (dwarf birch) over two successive annual growing seasons and evaluated the structural stomatal response to atmospheric CO2 conditions. We find that while some adjustment of leaf morphological and stomatal parameters occurred in the first growing season where plants are exposed to experimental CO2 conditions, amplified adjustment of non-plastic stomatal properties such as stomatal conductance occurred in the second year of experimental CO2 exposure. We postulate that the species response limit to CO2 of B. nana may occur around 400-450 ppmv. Our findings strongly support the necessity for multi-annual experiments in C3 perennials in order to evaluate the effects of environmental conditions and provide a likely explanation of the contradictory results between historical and palaeobotanical records and experimental data.

Region-specific sensitivity of anemophilous pollen deposition to temperature and precipitation.

Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values), and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1), as well as in the growing season (T), are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001]) in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001). The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural archives reflect annual past climate variability, and can be used in palaeoecological and -climatological studies to bridge between population- and species-scale responses to climate forcing.

Drought stress signals in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia (Fagaceae) leaves reflect winter precipitation in southern Florida tied to El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity.

In the present study, structural xeromorphic features in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia leaves from southern Florida were quantified to reconstruct past precipitation changes in sensitive terrestrial settings. Absolute cell numbers/mm(2), quantified as epidermal cell density (ED) have been analyzed on leaves from herbarium collections as well as the leaves accumulated during the past 125 years in peat deposits. The results reveal a common principal correlation between the measured ED and winter precipitation (November through March, NDJFM: Herbarium r = -0.74; peat profiles FAK98 r = -0.72, FAK02 r = -0.53) providing a measure of seasonal drought stress. In Florida, the amount of winter precipitation depends on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, where El Niño years produce wet and cold winters, while La Niña winters are dry and warm. The negative correlation between cell numbers and winter precipitation has the potential to record precipitation variability from subfossil leaves on near-annual to decadal time scales. In subtropical, terrestrial environments, where traditional paleo-proxies are limited, systematic analysis of leaf morphological characteristics can provide important information on precipitation changes through time.

Mid- to late-Holocene El Nino-Southern Oscillation dynamics reflected in the subtropical terrestrial realm.

High resolution pollen analysis of mid- to late-Holocene peat deposits from southwest Florida reveals a stepwise increase in wetland vegetation that points to an increased precipitation-driven fresh water flow during the past 5,000 years. The tight coupling between winter precipitation patterns in Florida and the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly suggests that the paleo-hydrology record reflects changes in ENSO intensity. A terrestrial subtropical record outside the Indo Pacific Warm Pool both documents ecosystem response to the known onset of modern-day ENSO periodicities, between approximately 7,000 and 5,000 years B.P., and subsequent ENSO intensification after 3,500 years B.P. The observed increases in "wetness" are sustained by a gradual rise in relative sea level that prevents a return to drier vegetation through natural succession.