A core outcome set for trials evaluating self-management interventions in people with severe mental illness and coexisting type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illness (SMI), such as schizophrenia, have higher rates of type 2 diabetes and worse outcomes, compared to those without SMI and it is not known whether diabetes self-management interventions are effective for people who have both conditions. Research in this area has been impeded by a lack of consensus on which outcomes to prioritise in people with co-existing SMI and diabetes. AIMS: To develop a core outcome set (COS) for use in effectiveness trials of diabetes self-management interventions in adults with both type 2 diabetes and SMI. METHODS: The COS was developed in three stages: (i) identification of outcomes from systematic literature review of intervention studies, followed by multi-stakeholder and service user workshops; (ii) rating of outcomes in a two-round online Delphi survey; (iii) agreement of final 'core' outcomes through a stakeholder consensus workshop. RESULTS: Seven outcomes were selected: glucose control, blood pressure, body composition (body weight, BMI, body fat), health-related quality of life, diabetes self-management, diabetes-related distress and medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: This COS is recommended for future trials of effectiveness of diabetes self-management interventions for people with SMI and type 2 diabetes. Its use will ensure trials capture important outcomes and reduce heterogeneity so findings can be readily synthesised to inform practice and policy.

Are local public expenditure reductions associated with increases in inequality in emergency hospitalisation? Time-series analysis of English local authorities from 2010 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Reductions in local government funding implemented in 2010 due to austerity policies have been associated with worsening socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Less is known about the relationship of these reductions with healthcare inequalities; therefore, we investigated whether areas with greater reductions in local government funding had greater increases in socioeconomic inequalities in emergency admissions. METHODS: We examined inequalities between English local authority districts (LADs) using a fixed-effects linear regression to estimate the association between LAD expenditure reductions, their level of deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and average rates of (all and avoidable) emergency admissions for the years 2010-2017. We also examined changes in inequalities in emergency admissions using the Absolute Gradient Index (AGI), which is the modelled gap between the most and least deprived neighbourhoods in an area. RESULTS: LADs within the most deprived IMD quintile had larger pounds per capita expenditure reductions, higher rates of all and avoidable emergency admissions, and greater between-neighbourhood inequalities in admissions. However, expenditure reductions were only associated with increasing average rates of all and avoidable emergency admissions and inequalities between neighbourhoods in local authorities in England's three least deprived IMD quintiles. For a LAD in the least deprived IMD quintile, a yearly reduction of £100 per capita in total expenditure was associated with a yearly increase of 47 (95% CI 22 to 73) avoidable admissions, 142 (95% CI 70 to 213) all-cause emergency admissions and a yearly increase in inequalities between neighbourhoods of 48 (95% CI 14 to 81) avoidable and 140 (95% CI 60 to 220) all-cause emergency admissions. In 2017, a LAD average population was ~170 000. CONCLUSION: Austerity policies implemented in 2010 impacted less deprived local authorities, where emergency admissions and inequalities between neighbourhoods increased, while in the most deprived areas, emergency admissions were unchanged, remaining high and persistent.

Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Norms for the English Population.

OBJECTIVES: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England has implemented severity-of-disease modifiers that give greater weight to health benefits accruing to patients who experience a larger shortfall in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) under current standard of care than healthy individuals. This requires an estimate of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of the general population based on age and sex. Previous QALE population norms are based on nearly 30-year-old assessments of health-related quality of life in the general population. This study provides updated QALE estimates for the English population based on age and sex. METHODS: 5-level version of EQ-5D data for 14 412 participants from the Health Survey for England (waves 2017 and 2018) were pooled, and health-related quality of life population norms were calculated. These norms were combined with official life tables from the Office for National Statistics for 2017 to 2019 using the Sullivan method to derive QALE estimates based on age and sex. Values were discounted using 0%, 1.5%, and 3.5% discount rates. RESULTS: QALE at birth is 68.24 QALYs for men and 68.21 QALYs for women. These values are significantly lower than previously published QALE population norms based on the older 3-level version of EQ-5D data. CONCLUSION: This study provides new QALE population norms for England that serve to establish absolute and relative QALY shortfalls for the purpose of health technology assessments.

Impact of prevention in primary care on costs in primary and secondary care for people with serious mental illness.

A largely unexplored part of the financial incentive for physicians to participate in preventive care is the degree to which they are the residual claimant from any resulting cost savings. We examine the impact of two preventive activities for people with serious mental illness (care plans and annual reviews of physical health) by English primary care practices on costs in these practices and in secondary care. Using panel two-part models to analyze patient-level data linked across primary and secondary care, we find that these preventive activities in the previous year are associated with cost reductions in the current quarter both in primary and secondary care. We estimate that there are large beneficial externalities for which the primary care physician is not the residual claimant: the cost savings in secondary care are 4.7 times larger than the cost savings in primary care. These activities are incentivized in the English National Health Service but the total financial incentives for primary care physicians to participate were considerably smaller than the total cost savings produced. This suggests that changes to the design of incentives to increase the marginal reward for conducting these preventive activities among patients with serious mental illness could have further increased welfare.

Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that could be associated with under-prescribing of OACs. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NVAF increased between 2009 and 2015, before plateauing. Underprescribing of OACs in NVAF is associated with a range of comorbidities, ethnicity, and socioeconomic factors, demonstrating the need for initiatives to reduce inequalities in the care for AF patients.

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation, and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

The inverse care law re-examined: a global perspective.

An inverse care law persists in almost all low-income and middle-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive less, and lower-quality, health care despite having greater need. By contrast, a disproportionate care law persists in high-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive more health care, but of worse quality and insufficient quantity to meet their additional needs. Both laws are caused not only by financial barriers and fragmented health insurance systems but also by social inequalities in care seeking and co-investment as well as the costs and benefits of health care. Investing in more integrated universal health coverage and stronger primary care, delivered in proportion to need, can improve population health and reduce health inequality. However, trade-offs sometimes exist between health policy objectives. Health-care technologies, policies, and resourcing should be subjected to distributional analysis of their equity impacts, to ensure the objective of reducing health inequalities is kept in sight.

Healthcare resource use and costs for people with type 2 diabetes mellitus with and without severe mental illness in England: longitudinal matched-cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 60 000 people in England have coexisting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and severe mental illness (SMI). They are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require more complex care pathways compared with those with T2DM alone. Despite increasing prevalence, little is known about the healthcare resource use and costs for people with both conditions. AIMS: To assess the impact of SMI on healthcare resource use and service costs for adults with T2DM, and explore the predictors of healthcare costs and lifetime costs for people with both conditions. METHOD: This was a matched-cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics for 1620 people with comorbid SMI and T2DM and 4763 people with T2DM alone. Generalised linear models and the Bang and Tsiatis method were used to explore cost predictors and mean lifetime costs respectively. RESULTS: There were higher average annual costs for people with T2DM and SMI (£1930 higher) than people with T2DM alone, driven primarily by mental health and non-mental health-related hospital admissions. Key predictors of higher total costs were older age, comorbid hypertension, use of antidepressants, use of first-generation antipsychotics, and increased duration of living with both conditions. Expected lifetime costs were approximately £35 000 per person with both SMI and T2DM. Extrapolating nationally, this would generate total annual costs to the National Health Service of around £250 m per year. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of resource use and costs for people with both T2DM and SMI will aid policymakers and commissioners in service planning and resource allocation.

Socioeconomic inequalities in HRQoL in England: an age-sex stratified analysis.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status is a key predictor of lifetime health: poorer people can expect to live shorter lives with lower average health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) than richer people. In this study, we aimed to improve understanding of the socioeconomic gradient in HRQoL by exploring how inequalities in different dimensions of HRQoL differ by age. METHODS: Data were derived from the Health Survey for England for 2017 and 2018 (14,412 participants). HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L instrument. We estimated mean EQ-5D utility scores and reported problems on five HRQoL dimensions (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression) for ages 16 to 90+ and stratified by neighbourhood deprivation quintiles. Relative and absolute measures of inequality were assessed. RESULTS: Mean EQ-5D utility scores declined with age and followed a socioeconomic gradient, with the lowest scores in the most deprived areas. Gaps between the most and least deprived quintiles emerged around the age of 35, reached their greatest extent at age 60 to 64 (relative HRQoL of most deprived compared to least deprived quintile: females = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68-0.85); males = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.87)) before closing again in older age groups. Gaps were apparent for all five EQ-5D dimensions but were greatest for mobility and self-care. CONCLUSION: There are stark socioeconomic inequalities in all dimensions of HRQoL in England. These inequalities start to develop from early adulthood and increase with age but reduce again around retirement age.

Living with diabetes alongside a severe mental illness: A qualitative exploration with people with severe mental illness, family members and healthcare staff.

AIMS: Diabetes is two to three times more prevalent in people with severe mental illness, yet little is known about the challenges of managing both conditions from the perspectives of people living with the co-morbidity, their family members or healthcare staff. Our aim was to understand these challenges and to explore the circumstances that influence access to and receipt of diabetes care for people with severe mental illness. METHODS: Framework analysis of qualitative semi-structured interviews with people with severe mental illness and diabetes, family members, and staff from UK primary care, mental health and diabetes services, selected using a maximum variation sampling strategy between April and December 2018. RESULTS: In all, 39 adults with severe mental illness and diabetes (3 with type 1 diabetes and 36 with type 2 diabetes), nine family members and 30 healthcare staff participated. Five themes were identified: (a) Severe mental illness governs everyday life including diabetes management; (b) mood influences capacity and motivation for diabetes self-management; (c) cumulative burden of managing multiple physical conditions; (d) interacting conditions and overlapping symptoms and (e) support for everyday challenges. People living with the co-morbidity and their family members emphasised the importance of receiving support for the everyday challenges that impact diabetes management, and identified barriers to accessing this from healthcare providers. CONCLUSIONS: More intensive support for diabetes management is needed when people's severe mental illness (including symptoms of depression) or physical health deteriorates. Interventions that help people, including healthcare staff, distinguish between symptoms of diabetes and severe mental illness are also needed.

Effect of sugar-sweetened beverages on oral health: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) on health outcomes such as obesity have been studied extensively, but oral health has been relatively neglected. This study aims to assess the association between SSB consumption and dental caries and erosion. METHODS: Systematic review of observational studies. Search strategy applied to Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, SciELO, LILACS, OpenGrey and HMIC. The risk of bias was assessed using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cross-Sectional Studies and evidence certainty using Grading of Recommendation Assessment Development and Evaluation. Relationships between SSB consumption and caries and erosion were estimated using random-effects model meta- and dose-response analyses. RESULTS: A total of 38 cross-sectional studies were included, of which 26 were rated as high quality. Comparing moderate-to-low consumption, there was significantly increased risk of both caries [OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.28-1.92; decayed, missing and filled teeth weighted mean differences (DMFT WMD) = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.38-1.26] and erosion (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-2.03). Comparing high-to-moderate consumption, there was further increased risk of caries (OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.17-1.99; DMFT WMD = 1.16, 95% CI: -0.59-2.91) and erosion (OR = 3.09, 95% CI: 1.37-6.97). A dose-response gradient and high certainty of evidence was observed for caries. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing SSB consumption is associated with increased risk of dental caries and erosion. Studies were cross-sectional, hence temporality could not be established, but the positive dose-response suggests this relationship is likely to be causal. These findings illustrate the potential benefits to oral health of policies that reduce SSB consumption, including sugar taxation.

The impact of frailty on healthcare resource use: a longitudinal analysis using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England.

BACKGROUND: routine frailty identification and management is national policy in England, but there remains a lack of evidence on the impact of frailty on healthcare resource use. We evaluated the impact of frailty on the use and costs of general practice and hospital care. METHODS: retrospective longitudinal analysis using linked routine primary care records for 95,863 patients aged 65-95 years registered with 125 UK general practices between 2003 and 2014. Baseline frailty was measured using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and classified in four categories (non, mild, moderate, severe). Negative binomial regressions and ordinary least squares regressions with multilevel mixed effects were applied on the use and costs of general practice and hospital care. RESULTS: compared with non-frail status, annual general practitioner consultation incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.21-1.27) for mild, 1.41 (95% CI: 1.35-1.47) for moderate, and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.42-1.62) for severe frailty. For emergency hospital admissions, the respective IRRs were 1.64 (95% CI 1.60-1.68), 2.45 (95% CI 2.37-2.53) and 3.16 (95% CI: 3.00-3.33). Compared with non-frail people the IRR for inpatient days was 7.26 (95% CI 6.61-7.97) for severe frailty. Using 2013/14 reference costs, extra annual cost to the healthcare system per person was £561.05 for mild, £1,208.60 for moderate and £2,108.20 for severe frailty. This equates to a total additional cost of £5.8 billion per year across the UK. CONCLUSIONS: increasing frailty is associated with substantial increases in healthcare costs, driven by increased hospital admissions, longer inpatient stay, and increased general practice consultations.

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pay-for-performance in primary care in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Introduced in 2004, the United Kingdom's (UK) Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is the world's largest primary-care pay-for-performance programme. Given some evidence of the benefits and the substantial costs associated with the QOF, it remains unclear whether the programme is cost-effective. Therefore, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of continuing versus stopping the QOF. METHODS: We developed a lifetime simulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs for a UK population cohort aged 40-74 years (n = 27,070,862) exposed to the QOF and for a counterfactual scenario without exposure. Based on a previous retrospective cross-country analysis using data from 1994 to 2010, we assumed the benefits of the QOF to be a change in age-adjusted mortality of -3.68 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval -8.16 to 0.80). We used cost-effectiveness thresholds of £30,000/QALY, £20,000/QALY and £13,000/QALY to determine the optimal strategy in base-case and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, continuing the QOF increased population-level QALYs and health-care costs yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £49,362/QALY. The ICER remained >£30,000/QALY in scenarios with and without non-fatal outcomes or increased drug costs, and under differing assumptions about the duration of QOF benefit following its hypothetical discontinuation. The ICER for continuing the programme fell below £30,000/QALY when QOF incentive payments were 36% lower (while preserving QOF mortality benefits), and in scenarios where the QOF resulted in substantial reductions in health-care spending or non-fatal cardiovascular disease events. Continuing the QOF was cost-effective in 18%, 3% and 0% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis iterations using thresholds of £30,000/QALY, £20,000/QALY and £13,000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to stopping the QOF and returning all associated incentive payments to the National Health Service, continuing the QOF is not cost-effective. To improve population health efficiently, the UK should redesign the QOF or pursue alternative interventions.

Chronic morbidity, deprivation and primary medical care spending in England in 2015-16: a cross-sectional spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary care provides the foundation for most modern health-care systems, and in the interests of equity, it should be resourced according to local need. We aimed to describe spatially the burden of chronic conditions and primary medical care funding in England at a low geographical level, and to measure how much variation in funding is explained by chronic condition prevalence and other patient and regional factors. METHODS: We used multiple administrative data sets including chronic condition prevalence and management data (2014/15), funding for primary-care practices (2015-16), and geographical and area deprivation data (2015). Data were assigned to a low geographical level (average 1500 residents). We investigated the overall morbidity burden across 19 chronic conditions and its regional variation, spatial clustering and association with funding and area deprivation. A linear regression model was used to explain local variation in spending using patient demographics, morbidity, deprivation and regional characteristics. RESULTS: Levels of morbidity varied within and between regions, with several clusters of very high morbidity identified. At the regional level, morbidity was modestly associated with practice funding, with the North East and North West appearing underfunded. The regression model explained 39% of the variability in practice funding, but even after adjusting for covariates, a large amount of variability in funding existed across regions. High morbidity and, especially, rural location were very strongly associated with higher practice funding, while associations were more modest for high deprivation and older age. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care funding in England does not adequately reflect the contemporary morbidity burden. More equitable resource allocation could be achieved by making better use of routinely available information and big data resources. Similar methods could be deployed in other countries where comparable data are collected, to identify morbidity clusters and to target funding to areas of greater need.

Association between a national primary care pay-for-performance scheme and suicide rates in England: spatial cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pay-for-performance policies aim to improve population health by incentivising improvements in quality of care.AimsTo assess the relationship between general practice performance on severe mental illness (SMI) and depression indicators under a national incentivisation scheme and suicide risk in England for the period 2006-2014. METHOD: Longitudinal spatial analysis for 32 844 small-area geographical units (lower super output areas, LSOAs), using population-structure adjusted numbers of suicide as the outcome variable. Negative binomial models were fitted to investigate the relationship between spatially estimated recorded quality of care and suicide risk at the LSOA level. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were adjusted for deprivation, social fragmentation, prevalence of depression and SMI as well as other 2011 Census variables. RESULTS: No association was found between practice performance on the mental health indicators and suicide incidence in practice localities (IRR=1.000, 95% CI 0.998-1.002). IRRs indicated elevated suicide risks linked with area-level social fragmentation (1.030; 95% CI 1.027-1.034), deprivation (1.013, 95% CI 1.012-1.014) and rurality (1.059, 95% CI 1.027-1.092). CONCLUSIONS: Primary care has an important role to play in suicide prevention, but we did not observe a link between practices' higher reported quality of care on incentivised mental health activities and lower suicide rates in the local population. It is likely that effective suicide prevention needs a more concerted, multiagency approach. Better training in suicide prevention for general practitioners is also essential. These findings pertain to the UK but have relevance to other countries considering similar programmes.Declaration of interestNone.

Long-term evidence for the effect of pay-for-performance in primary care on mortality in the UK: a population study.

BACKGROUND: Introduced in 2004, the UK's Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is the world's largest primary care pay-for-performance programme. We tested whether the QOF was associated with reduced population mortality. METHODS: We used population-level mortality statistics between 1994 and 2010 for the UK and other high-income countries that were not exposed to pay-for-performance. The primary outcome was age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality per 100,000 people for a composite outcome of chronic disorders that were targeted by the QOF. Secondary outcomes were age-adjusted and sex-adjusted mortality for ischaemic heart disease, cancer, and a composite of all non-targeted conditions. For each study outcome, we created a so-called synthetic UK as a weighted combination of comparison countries. We then estimated difference-in-differences models to test whether mortality fell more in the UK than in the synthetic UK after the QOF. FINDINGS: Introduction of the QOF was not significantly associated with changes in population mortality for the composite outcome (-3.68 per 100,000 population [95% CI -8.16 to 0.80]; p=0.107), ischaemic heart disease (-2.21 per 100,000 [-6.86 to 2.44]; p=0.357), cancer (0.28 per 100,000 [-0.99 to 1.55]; p=0.679), or all non-targeted conditions (11.60 per 100,000 [-3.91 to 27.11]; p=0.143). INTERPRETATION: Although we noted small mortality reductions for a composite outcome of targeted disorders, the QOF was not associated with significant changes in mortality. Our findings have implications for the probable effects of similar programmes on population health outcomes. The relation between incentives and mortality needs to be assessed in specific disease domains. FUNDING: None.

Impact of Provider Incentives on Quality and Value of Health Care.

The use of financial incentives to improve quality in health care has become widespread. Yet evidence on the effectiveness of incentives suggests that they have generally had limited impact on the value of care and have not led to better patient outcomes. Lessons from social psychology and behavioral economics indicate that incentive programs in health care have not been effectively designed to achieve their intended impact. In the United States, Medicare's Hospital Readmission Reduction Program and Hospital Value-Based Purchasing Program, created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), provide evidence on how variations in the design of incentive programs correspond with differences in effect. As financial incentives continue to be used as a tool to increase the value and quality of health care, improving the design of programs will be crucial to ensure their success.

Closing the mortality gap for severe mental illness: are we going in the right direction?

In this editorial, we discuss a UK-based cohort study examining the mortality gap for people with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from 2000 to 2014. There have been concerted efforts to improve physical and mental healthcare for this population in recent decades. Have these initiatives reduced mortality and 'closed the gap'?

Strategies to enable the adoption of animal biotechnology to sustainably improve global food safety and security.

The ability to generate transgenic animals has existed for over 30 years, and from those early days many predicted that the technology would have beneficial applications in agriculture. Numerous transgenic agricultural animals now exist, however to date only one product from a transgenic animal has been approved for the food chain, due in part to cumbersome regulations. Recently, new techniques such as precision breeding have emerged, which enables the introduction of desired traits without the use of transgenes. The rapidly growing human population, environmental degradation, and concerns related to zoonotic and pandemic diseases have increased pressure on the animal agriculture sector to provide a safe, secure and sustainable food supply. There is a clear need to adopt transgenic technologies as well as new methods such as gene editing and precision breeding to meet these challenges and the rising demand for animal products. To achieve this goal, cooperation, education, and communication between multiple stakeholders-including scientists, industry, farmers, governments, trade organizations, NGOs and the public-is necessary. This report is the culmination of concepts first discussed at an OECD sponsored conference and aims to identify the main barriers to the adoption of animal biotechnology, tactics for navigating those barriers, strategies to improve public perception and trust, as well as industry engagement, and actions for governments and trade organizations including the OECD to harmonize regulations and trade agreements. Specifically, the report focuses on animal biotechnologies that are intended to improve breeding and genetics and currently are not routinely used in commercial animal agriculture. We put forward recommendations on how scientists, regulators, and trade organizations can work together to ensure that the potential benefits of animal biotechnology can be realized to meet the future needs of agriculture to feed the world.

Glucose, blood pressure and cholesterol levels and their relationships to clinical outcomes in type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to describe the shape of observed relationships between risk factor levels and clinically important outcomes in type 2 diabetes after adjusting for multiple confounders. METHODS: We used retrospective longitudinal data on 246,544 adults with type 2 diabetes from 600 practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2006-2012. Proportional hazards regression models quantified the risks of mortality and microvascular or macrovascular events associated with four modifiable biological variables (HbA1c, systolic BP, diastolic BP and total cholesterol), while controlling for important patient and practice covariates. RESULTS: U-shaped relationships were observed between all-cause mortality and levels of the four biometric risk factors. Lowest risks were associated with HbA1c 7.25-7.75% (56-61 mmol/mol), total cholesterol 3.5-4.5 mmol/l, systolic BP 135-145 mmHg and diastolic BP 82.5-87.5 mmHg. Coronary and stroke mortality related to the four risk factors in a positive, curvilinear way, with the exception of systolic BP, which related to deaths in a U-shape. Macrovascular events showed a positive and curvilinear relationship with HbA1c but a U-shaped relationship with total cholesterol and systolic BP. Microvascular events related to the four risk factors in a curvilinear way: positive for HbA1c and systolic BP but negative for cholesterol and diastolic BP. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We identified several relationships that support a call for major changes to clinical practice. Most importantly, our results support trial data indicating that normalisation of glucose and BP can lead to poorer outcomes. This makes a strong case for target ranges for these risk factors rather than target levels.