Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests.

The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south-eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process-based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (-12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (-18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was -6.6% across 48-years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Changes in soil moisture drive soil methane uptake along a fire regeneration chronosequence in a eucalypt forest landscape.

Disturbance associated with severe wildfires (WF) and WF simulating harvest operations can potentially alter soil methane (CH4 ) oxidation in well-aerated forest soils due to the effect on soil properties linked to diffusivity, methanotrophic activity or changes in methanotrophic bacterial community structure. However, changes in soil CH4 flux related to such disturbances are still rarely studied even though WF frequency is predicted to increase as a consequence of global climate change. We measured in-situ soil-atmosphere CH4 exchange along a wet sclerophyll eucalypt forest regeneration chronosequence in Tasmania, Australia, where the time since the last severe fire or harvesting disturbance ranged from 9 to >200 years. On all sampling occasions, mean CH4 uptake increased from most recently disturbed sites (9 year) to sites at stand 'maturity' (44 and 76 years). In stands >76 years since disturbance, we observed a decrease in soil CH4 uptake. A similar age dependency of potential CH4 oxidation for three soil layers (0.0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.15 m) could be observed on incubated soils under controlled laboratory conditions. The differences in soil CH4 uptake between forest stands of different age were predominantly driven by differences in soil moisture status, which affected the diffusion of atmospheric CH4 into the soil. The observed soil moisture pattern was likely driven by changes in interception or evapotranspiration with forest age, which have been well described for similar eucalypt forest systems in south-eastern Australia. Our results imply that there is a large amount of variability in CH4 uptake at a landscape scale that can be attributed to stand age and soil moisture differences. An increase in severe WF frequency in response to climate change could potentially increase overall forest soil CH4 sinks.

Plant traits linked to field-scale flammability metrics in prescribed burns in Eucalyptus forest.

Vegetation is a key determinant of wildfire behaviour at field scales as it functions as fuel. Past studies in the laboratory show that plant flammability, the ability of plants to ignite and maintain combustion, is a function of their traits. However, the way the traits of individual plants combine in a vegetation community to affect field flammability has received little attention. This study aims to bridge the gap between the laboratory and field by linking plant traits to metrics of field-scale flammability. Across three prescribed burns, in Eucalyptus-dominated damp and dry forest, we measured pre-burn plant species abundance and post-burn field flammability metrics (percentage area burnt, char and scorch height). For understory species with dominant cover-abundance, we measured nine traits that had been demonstrated to influence flammability in the laboratory. We used fourth-corner ordination to evaluate covariation between the plant traits, species abundance and flammability. We found that several traits covaried at the species level. In some instances, these traits (e.g. specific leaf area and bulk density) could have cumulative effects on the flammability of a species while in other instances (e.g. moisture and specific leaf area) they may have counteractive effects, assuming trait effects on flammability are akin to previous research. At field scales, species with similar traits tended to co-occur, suggesting that the effects of individual traits accumulate within a plant community. Fourth-corner analyses found the trait-field flammability relationship to be statistically significant. Traits significantly associated with increasing field flammability metrics were: bulk density (negatively associated) and hydrocarbon quantity, specific leaf area and surface area to volume ratio (all positively associated). Our study demonstrates that some traits known to influence flammability in the laboratory can be associated with field-scale flammability metrics. Further research is needed to isolate the contributions of individual traits to understand how species composition drives forest flammability.