Spectrally refined unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the Earth's global radiative cooling.

The Earth's radiative cooling is a key driver of climate. Determining how it is affected by greenhouse gas concentration is a core question in climate-change sciences. Due to the complexity of radiative transfer processes, current practices to estimate this cooling require the development and use of a suite of radiative transfer models whose accuracy diminishes as we move from local, instantaneous estimates to global estimates over the whole globe and over long periods of time (decades). Here, we show that recent advances in nonlinear Monte Carlo methods allow a paradigm shift: a completely unbiased estimate of the Earth's infrared cooling to space can be produced using a single model, integrating the most refined spectroscopic models of molecular gas energy transitions over a global scale and over years, all at a very low computational cost (a few seconds).

Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.

Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.

Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies.

Radiation parameterizations in GCMs are more accurate than their predecessorsErrors in estimates of 4 ×CO2 forcing are large, especially for solar radiationErrors depend on atmospheric state, so global mean error is unknown.

Coupling between lower-tropospheric convective mixing and low-level clouds: Physical mechanisms and dependence on convection scheme.

Several studies have pointed out the dependence of low-cloud feedbacks on the strength of the lower-tropospheric convective mixing. By analyzing a series of single-column model experiments run by a climate model using two different convective parametrizations, this study elucidates the physical mechanisms through which marine boundary-layer clouds depend on this mixing in the present-day climate and under surface warming. An increased lower-tropospheric convective mixing leads to a reduction of low-cloud fraction. However, the rate of decrease strongly depends on how the surface latent heat flux couples to the convective mixing and to boundary-layer cloud radiative effects: (i) on the one hand, the latent heat flux is enhanced by the lower-tropospheric drying induced by the convective mixing, which damps the reduction of the low-cloud fraction, (ii) on the other hand, the latent heat flux is reduced as the lower troposphere stabilizes under the effect of reduced low-cloud radiative cooling, which enhances the reduction of the low-cloud fraction. The relative importance of these two different processes depends on the closure of the convective parameterization. The convective scheme that favors the coupling between latent heat flux and low-cloud radiative cooling exhibits a stronger sensitivity of low-clouds to convective mixing in the present-day climate, and a stronger low-cloud feedback in response to surface warming. In this model, the low-cloud feedback is stronger when the present-day convective mixing is weaker and when present-day clouds are shallower and more radiatively active. The implications of these insights for constraining the strength of low-cloud feedbacks observationally is discussed.