Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. METHODS: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. RESULTS: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

Childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: socioeconomic inequalities in symptoms, impact, diagnosis and medication.

BACKGROUND: Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are at greater risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)-related symptoms, being diagnosed with ADHD, and being prescribed ADHD medications. We aimed to examine how inequalities manifest across the 'patient journey', from perceptions of impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, to the propensity to seek and receive a diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: We investigated four 'stages': (1) symptoms, (2) caregiver perception of impact, (3) diagnosis and (4) medication, in two data sets: UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, analytic n ~ 9,000), with relevant (parent-reported) information on all four stages (until 14 years); and a population-wide 'administrative cohort', which includes symptoms (child health checks) and prescriptions (dispensing records), born in Scotland, 2010-2012 (analytic n ~ 100,000), until ~6 years. We described inequalities according to maternal occupational status, with percentages and relative indices of inequality (RII). RESULTS: The prevalence of ADHD symptoms and medication receipt was considerably higher in the least compared to the most advantaged children in the administrative cohort (RIIs of 5.9 [5.5-6.4] and 8.1 [4.2-15.6]) and the MCS (3.08 [2.68-3.55], 3.75 [2.21-6.36]). MCS analyses highlighted complexities between these two stages, however, those from least advantaged backgrounds, with ADHD symptoms, were the least likely to perceive impacts on daily life (15.7% vs. average 19.5%) and to progress from diagnosis to medication (44.1% vs. average 72.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite large inequalities in ADHD symptoms and medication, parents from the least advantaged backgrounds were less likely to report impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, and their children were less likely to have received medication postdiagnosis, highlighting how patient journeys differed according to socioeconomic circumstances.

Biases arising from linked administrative data for epidemiological research: a conceptual framework from registration to analyses.

Linked administrative data offer a rich source of information that can be harnessed to describe patterns of disease, understand their causes and evaluate interventions. However, administrative data are primarily collected for operational reasons such as recording vital events for legal purposes, and planning, provision and monitoring of services. The processes involved in generating and linking administrative datasets may generate sources of bias that are often not adequately considered by researchers. We provide a framework describing these biases, drawing on our experiences of using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (100MCohort) which contains records of more than 131 million people whose families applied for social assistance between 2001 and 2018. Datasets for epidemiological research were derived by linking the 100MCohort to health-related databases such as the Mortality Information System and the Hospital Information System. Using the framework, we demonstrate how selection and misclassification biases may be introduced in three different stages: registering and recording of people's life events and use of services, linkage across administrative databases, and cleaning and coding of variables from derived datasets. Finally, we suggest eight recommendations which may reduce biases when analysing data from administrative sources.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows.

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Differences in ill health and in socioeconomic inequalities in health by ethnic groups: a cross-sectional study using 2011 Scottish census.

Objectives: We compare rates of ill health and socioeconomic inequalities in health by ethnic groups in Scotland by age. We focus on ethnic differences in socioeconomic inequalities in health. There is little evidence of how socioeconomic inequalities in health vary by ethnicity, especially in Scotland, where health inequalities are high compared to other European countries.Design: A cross-sectional study using the 2011 Scottish Census (population 5.3 million) was conducted. Directly standardized rates were calculated for two self-rated health outcomes (poor general health and limiting long-term illness) separately by ethnicity, age and small-area deprivation. Slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure socioeconomic inequalities in health.Results: The results show that the White Scottish population tend to have worse health and higher socioeconomic inequalities in health than many other ethnic groups, while White Polish and Chinese people tend to have better health and low socioeconomic inequalities in health. These results are more salient for ages 30-44. The Pakistani population has high rates of poor health similar to the White Scottish for ages 15-44, but at ages 45 and above Pakistani people have the highest rates of poor self-rated health. Compared to other ethnicities, Pakistani people are also more likely to experience poor health in the least deprived areas, particularly at ages 45 and above.Conclusions: There are statistically significant and substantial differences in poor self-rated health and in socioeconomic inequalities in health between ethnicities. Rates of ill health vary between ethnic groups at any age. The better health of the younger minority population should not be taken as evidence of better health outcomes in later life. Since socioeconomic gradients in health vary by ethnicity, policy interventions for health improvement in Scotland that focus only on deprived areas may inadvertently exclude minority populations.

Socio-economic inequalities in rates of amenable mortality in Scotland: Analyses of the fundamental causes using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, 1991-2010.

Socio-economic inequalities in amenable mortality rates are increasing across Europe, which is an affront to universal healthcare systems where the numbers of, and inequalities in, amenable deaths should be minimal and declining over time. However, the fundamental causes theory proposes that inequalities in health will be largest across preventable causes, where unequally distributed resources can be used to gain an advantage. Information on individual-level inequalities that may better reflect the fundamental causes remains limited. We used the Scottish Longitudinal Study, with follow-up to 2010 to examine trends in amenable mortality by a range of socioeconomic position measures. Large inequalities were found for all measures of socioeconomic position and were lowest for educational attainment, higher for social class and highest for social connection. To reduce inequalities, amenable mortality needs to be interpreted both as an indicator of healthcare quality and as a reflection of the unequal distribution of socio-economic resources.

The long-term health effects of attending a selective school: a natural experiment.

BACKGROUND: Education is widely associated with better physical and mental health, but isolating its causal effect is difficult because education is linked with many socioeconomic advantages. One way to isolate education's effect is to consider environments where similar students are assigned to different educational experiences based on objective criteria. Here we measure the health effects of assignment to selective schooling based on test score, a widely debated educational policy. METHODS: In 1960s Britain, children were assigned to secondary schools via a test taken at age 11. We used regression discontinuity analysis to measure health differences in 5039 people who were separated into selective and non-selective schools this way. We measured selective schooling's effect on six outcomes: mid-life self-reports of health, mental health, and life limitation due to health, as well as chronic disease burden derived from hospital records in mid-life and later life, and the likelihood of dying prematurely. The analysis plan was accepted as a registered report while we were blind to the health outcome data. RESULTS: Effect estimates for selective schooling were as follows: self-reported health, 0.1 worse on a 4-point scale (95%CI - 0.2 to 0); mental health, 0.2 worse on a 16-point scale (- 0.5 to 0.1); likelihood of life limitation due to health, 5 percentage points higher (- 1 to 10); mid-life chronic disease diagnoses, 3 fewer/100 people (- 9 to + 4); late-life chronic disease diagnoses, 9 more/100 people (- 3 to + 20); and risk of dying before age 60, no difference (- 2 to 3 percentage points). Extensive sensitivity analyses gave estimates consistent with these results. In summary, effects ranged from 0.10-0.15 standard deviations worse for self-reported health, and from 0.02 standard deviations better to 0.07 worse for records-derived health. However, they were too imprecise to allow the conclusion that selective schooling was detrimental. CONCLUSIONS: We found that people who attended selective secondary school had more advantaged economic backgrounds, higher IQs, higher likelihood of getting a university degree, and better health. However, we did not find that selective schooling itself improved health. This lack of a positive influence of selective secondary schooling on health was consistent despite varying a wide range of model assumptions.

Deaths of despair: cause-specific mortality and socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality among young men in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Increasing mortality among men from drugs, alcohol and suicides is a growing public health concern in many countries. Collectively known as "deaths of despair", they are seen to stem from unprecedented economic pressures and a breakdown in social support structures. METHODS: We use high-quality population wide Scottish data to calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates for men aged 15-44 between 1980 and 2018 for 15 leading causes of mortality. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality by cause are calculated using small-area deprivation and the slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RIIL) for the years 2001-2018. RESULTS: Since 1980 there have been only small reductions in mortality among men aged 15-44 in Scotland. In that period drug-related deaths have increased from 1.2 (95% CI 0.7-1.4) to 44.9 (95% CI 42.5-47.4) deaths per 100,000 and are now the leading cause of mortality. Between 2001 and 2018 there have been small reductions in absolute but not in relative inequalities in all-cause mortality. However, absolute inequalities in mortality from drugs have doubled from SII = 66.6 (95% CI 61.5-70.9) in 2001-2003 to SII = 120.0 (95% CI 113.3-126.8) in 2016-2018. Drugs are the main contributor to inequalities in mortality, and together with alcohol harm and suicides make up 65% of absolute inequalities in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the substantial reductions in mortality across all ages in the past decades, deaths among young men are increasing from preventable causes. Attempts to reduce external causes of mortality have focused on a single cause of death and not been effective in reducing mortality or inequalities in mortality from external causes in the long-run. To reduce deaths of despair, action should be taken to address social determinants of health and reduce socioeconomic inequalities.

Theory driven analysis of social class and health outcomes using UK nationally representative longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: Social class is frequently used as a means of ranking the population to expose inequalities in health, but less often as a means of understanding the social processes of causation. We explored how effectively different social class mechanisms could be measured by longitudinal cohort data and whether those measures were able to explain health outcomes. METHODS: Using a theoretically informed approach, we sought to map variables within the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to five different social class mechanisms: social background and early life circumstances; habitus and distinction; exploitation and domination; location within market relations; and power relations. Associations between the SF-36 physical, emotional and general health outcomes at age 50 years and the social class measures within NCDS were then assessed through separate multiple linear regression models. R2 values were used to quantify the proportion of variance in outcomes explained by the independent variables. RESULTS: We were able to map the NCDS variables to the each of the social class mechanisms except 'Power relations'. However, the success of the mapping varied across mechanisms. Furthermore, although relevant associations between exposures and outcomes were observed, the mapped NCDS variables explained little of the variation in health outcomes: for example, for physical functioning, the R2 values ranged from 0.04 to 0.10 across the four mechanisms we could map. CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated both the potential and the limitations of available cohort studies in measuring aspects of social class theory. The relatively small amount of variation explained in the outcome variables in this study suggests that these are imperfect measures of the different social class mechanisms. However, the study lays an important foundation for further research to understand the complex interactions, at various life stages, between different aspects of social class and subsequent health outcomes.

A methodology for small area prevalence estimation based on survey data.

BACKGROUND: Brazil conducts many health surveys to provide estimates by national level, macro-regions, states, metropolitan regions and capitals. However, estimates for smaller areas are lacking due to their high cost. The Health Vulnerability Index (in Portuguese, Índice de Vulnerabilidade em Saúde, IVS) is a measure that combines socioeconomic and environmental variables in the same indicator and allows for the analysis of the characteristics of population groups residing in census tracts, grouping them into four health risk areas (low, medium, high and very high risk) in addition to showing inequalities in the epidemiological profile of different social groups. This index was developed by the Municipal Health Secretariat of Belo Horizonte to guide health planning. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to produce a methodology for obtaining reliable estimates for tobacco smoking in small areas for which the IVS was not designed. METHODS: The Vigitel dataset from 2006 to 2013 was used to obtain estimates of the prevalence of smokers based on the IVS employing small area estimation methods that use data from a larger domain to obtain estimates in smaller areas. For indirect estimates, the covariates included were sanitation, housing, education, income, and social and health factors. Post-stratification weights were used according to the IVS based on the population of the 2010 census. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2009, 16.2% (95% CI: 13.6-14.8%) of the adult population in Belo Horizonte were smokers, and 14.8% (95% CI: 14.0-15.6%) were smokers between 2010 and 2013. The very high-risk population maintained a high prevalence over the same period of 21.1% (95% CI: 17.1-25.0%) between 2006 and 2009 and 20.8% (95% CI: 17.0-24.6%) between 2010 and 2013, while in the low-risk group, the prevalence in the same period fell from 14.9% (95% CI: 13.7-16.2%) to 11.8% (95% CI, 10.6-13.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The present study identified differences in the profile of smokers by the IVS in the city of Belo Horizonte. While the smoking prevalence declined in richer areas, it remained high in poor areas. This methodology can be used to produce reliable estimates for subgroups with greater vulnerability in small areas and thus subsidize the formulation, monitoring and evaluation of public health policies and programmes aimed at smoking.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality in Scotland 1981-2011 by age, sex and deprivation: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Average life expectancy has stopped increasing for many countries. This has been attributed to causes such as influenza, austerity policies and deaths of despair (drugs, alcohol and suicide). Less is known on the inequality of life expectancy over time using reliable, whole population, data. This work examines all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Scotland to assess the patterning of relative and absolute inequalities across three decades. METHODS: Using routinely collected Scottish mortality and population records we calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates by age group, sex and deprivation fifths for all-cause and cause-specific deaths around each census 1981-2011. RESULTS: All-cause mortality rates in the most deprived areas in 2011 (472 per 100 000 population) remained higher than in the least deprived in 1981 (422 per 100 000 population). For those aged 0-64, deaths from circulatory causes more than halved between 1981 and 2011 and cancer mortality decreased by a third (with greater relative declines in the least deprived areas). Over the same period, alcohol- and drug-related causes and male suicide increased (with greater absolute and relative increases in more deprived areas). There was also a significant increase in deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's disease for those aged 75+. CONCLUSIONS: Despite reductions in mortality, relative (but not absolute) inequalities widened between 1981 and 2011 for all-cause mortality and for several causes of death. Reducing relative inequalities in Scotland requires faster mortality declines in deprived areas while countering increases in mortality from causes such as drug- and alcohol-related harm and male suicide.

Early-life school, neighborhood, and family influences on adult health: a multilevel cross-classified analysis of the Aberdeen children of the 1950s study.

Lifetime exposures to adverse social environments influence adult health, as do exposures in early life. It is usual to examine the influences of school on teenage health and of adult area of residence on adult health. We examined the combined long-term association of the school attended, as well as the area of residence in childhood, with adult health. A total of 6,285 children from Aberdeen, Scotland, who were aged 5-12 years in 1962, were followed up at a mean age of 47 years in 2001. Cross-classified multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the associations of family, school, and area of residence with self-reported adult health and mental health, adjusting for childhood family-, school-, and neighborhood-level factors, as well as current adult occupational position. Low early-life social position (as determined by the father's occupational level) was associated with poor adult self-rated health but not poor mental health. There were small contextual associations between childhood school environment (median odds ratio = 1.08) and neighborhood environment (median odds ratio = 1.05) and adult self-rated health. The share of the total variance in health at the family level was 10.1% compared with 89.6% at the individual level. Both socioeconomic context and composition in early life appear to have an influence on adult health, even after adjustment for current occupational position.

A comparison of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2004 with the 2009 + 1 SIMD: does choice of measure affect the interpretation of inequality in mortality?

BACKGROUND: There is a growing international literature assessing inequalities in health and mortality by area based measures. However, there are few works comparing measures available to inform research design. The analysis here seeks to begin to address this issue by assessing whether there are important differences in the relationship between deprivation and inequalities in mortality when measures that have been constructed at different time points are compared. METHODS: We contrast whether the interpretation of inequalities in all-cause mortality between the years 2008-10 changes in Scotland if we apply the earliest (2004) and the 2009 + 1 releases of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) to make this comparison. The 2004 release is based on data from 2001/2 and the 2009 + 1 release is based on data from 2008/9. The slope index of inequality (SII) and 1:10 ratio are used to summarise inequalities standardised by age/sex using population and mortality records. RESULTS: The 1:10 ratio suggests some differences in the magnitude of inequalities measured using SIMD at different time points. However, the SII shows much closer correspondence. CONCLUSIONS: Overall the findings show that substantive conclusions in relation to inequalities in all-cause mortality are little changed by the updated measure. This information is beneficial to researchers as the most recent measures are not always available. This adds to the body of literature showing stability in inequalities in health and mortality by geographical deprivation over time.

Is Austerity Responsible for the Stalled Mortality Trends Across Many High-Income Countries? A Systematic Review.

This article systematically reviews evidence evaluating whether macroeconomic austerity policies impact mortality, reviewing high-income country data compiled through systematic searches of nine databases and gray literature using pre-specified methods (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020226609). Eligible studies were quantitatively assessed to determine austerity's impact on mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias using ROBINS-I. Synthesis without meta-analysis was conducted due to heterogeneity. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE framework. Of 5,720 studies screened, seven were included, with harmful effects of austerity policies demonstrated in six, and no effect in one. Consistent harmful impacts of austerity were demonstrated for all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality across studies and different austerity measures. Excess mortality was higher in countries with greater exposure to austerity. Certainty of evidence was low. Risk of bias was moderate to critical. A typical austerity dose was associated with 74,090 [-40,632, 188,792] and 115,385 [26,324, 204,446] additional deaths per year. Austerity policies are consistently associated with adverse mortality outcomes, but the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain and may depend on how austerity is implemented (e.g., balance between public spending reductions or tax rises, and distributional consequences). Policymakers should be aware of potential harmful health effects of austerity policies.

Healthy Prenatal Dietary Pattern and Offspring Autism.

Importance: Prenatal diet may be causally related to autism; however, findings are inconsistent, with a limited body of research based on small sample sizes and retrospective study designs. Objective: To investigate the associations of prenatal dietary patterns with autism diagnosis and autism-associated traits in 2 large prospective cohorts, the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from MoBa and ALSPAC birth cohort studies conducted across Norway and in the Southwest of England, respectively. Participants were people with singleton pregnancies with self-reported food frequency questionnaire responses. MoBa recruited between 2002 and 2008, and ALSPAC recruited between 1990 and 1992, and children were followed-up until age 8 years or older. Recruitment rates were 41% (95 200 of 277 702 eligible pregnancies) in MoBa and 72% (14 541 of 20 248 eligible pregnancies) in ALSPAC. Data analysis occurred February 1, 2022, to August 1, 2023. Exposure: A healthy prenatal dietary pattern was derived using factor analysis and modeled as low, medium, and high adherence. Main Outcomes and Measures: In MoBa, the offspring outcomes were autism diagnosis and elevated social communication questionnaire score at ages 3 years and 8 years, with further analysis of the social communication difficulties and restrictive and repetitive behaviors subdomains. In ALSPAC, offspring outcomes were elevated social communication difficulties checklist score at age 8 years. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using generalized nonlinear models. Results: MoBa included 84 548 pregnancies (mean [SD] age, 30.2 [4.6] years; 43 277 [51.2%] male offspring) and ALSPAC had 11 760 pregnancies (mean [SD] age, 27.9 [4.7] years; 6034 [51.3%] male offspring). In the final adjusted models, high adherence to a healthy dietary pattern, compared with low adherence, was associated with reduced odds of autism diagnosis (OR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66-0.92) and social communication difficulties at age 3 years in MoBa (OR 0.76, 95% CI, 0.70-0.82) and age 8 years in ALSPAC (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.98). There was no consistent evidence of association with the other outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of mother-child dyads, adherence to a healthy prenatal dietary pattern was associated with a lower odds of autism diagnosis and social communication difficulties but not restrictive and repetitive behaviors.

The health impact of Scotland's Baby Box Scheme: a natural experiment evaluation using national linked health data.

BACKGROUND: Scotland's Baby Box Scheme (SBBS) is a national programme offering a box of essential items to all pregnant women in Scotland intended to improve infant and maternal health. We aimed to evaluate the effect of SBBS on selected infant and maternal health outcomes at population and subgroup levels (maternal age and area deprivation). METHODS: Our complete-case, intention-to-treat evaluation used national health data (from the Scottish Morbidity Record [SMR] 01, SMR02, and the Child Health Surveillance Programme-Pre School), linking birth records to postnatal hospitalisation and universal health visitor records in Scotland. We considered maternal-infant pairs of all live-singleton births 2 years either side of SBBS introduction (Aug 17, 2015, to Aug 11, 2019). We estimated step-changes and trend-changes in outcomes (hospital admission and self-reported exclusive breastfeeding, tobacco smoke exposure, and infant sleeping position) by week of birth using segmented Poisson regression, adjusting for over-dispersion and seasonality where necessary. FINDINGS: The analysis comprised 182 122 maternal-infant pairs. The prevalence of tobacco smoke exposure reduced after SBBS introduction: step decrease of 10% (prevalence ratio 0·904 [95% CI 0·865-0·946]; absolute decrease of 1·6% 1 month post-introduction) for infants and 9% (0·905 [0·862-0·950]; absolute decrease of 1·9% 1 month post-introduction) for the primary carer. There was no evidence of changes in infant and maternal all-cause hospital admissions or infant sleeping position. Among mothers younger than 25 years, there was a 10% step-increase in breastfeeding prevalence (1·095 [1·004-1·195]; absolute increase of 2·2% 1 month post-introduction) at 10 days and 17% (1·174 [1·037-1·328]) at 6-8 weeks postnatal. Although associations were robust to most sensitivity analyses, for smoke exposure associations were only observed early in the postnatal period. INTERPRETATION: SBBS reduced infant and primary carer tobacco smoke exposure, and increased breastfeeding among young mothers in Scotland. However, absolute effects were small. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and National Records of Scotland.

Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.

BACKGROUND: The UK Government's 'welfare reform' programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012-2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales. METHODS: Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects. RESULTS: Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.

Using administrative data to evaluate national policy impacts on child and maternal health: a research framework from the Maternal and Child Health Network (MatCHNet).

Reducing health inequalities by addressing the social circumstances in which children are conceived and raised is a societal priority. Early interventions are key to improving outcomes in childhood and long-term into adulthood. Across the UK nations, there is strong political commitment to invest in the early years. National policy interventions aim to tackle health inequalities and deliver health equity for all children. Evidence to determine the effectiveness of socio-structural policies on child health outcomes is especially pressing given the current social and economic challenges facing policy-makers and families with children. As an alternative to clinical trials or evaluating local interventions, we propose a research framework that supports evaluating the impact of whole country policies on child health outcomes. Three key research challenges must be addressed to enable such evaluations and improve policy for child health: (1) policy prioritisation, (2) identification of comparable data and (3) application of robust methods.