RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To develop a model of NIDDM for analyzing prevention strategies for NIDDM. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov type model with Monte Carlo techniques was used. Age, sex, and ethnicity of cohort was based on U.S. data. Incidence rates of complications were also based on community and population studies. RESULTS: Nonproliferative retinopathy, proliferative retinopathy, and macular edema are predicted in 79, 19, and 52%, respectively, of people with NIDDM; 19% are predicted to develop legal blindness. Microalbuminuria, gross proteinuria, and end-stage renal disease related to diabetes are predicted in 53, 40, and 17%, respectively. Symptomatic sensorimotor neuropathy and lower-extremity amputation are predicted in 31 and 17%, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is predicted in 39%. Higher rates of complications (1.1-3.0x) are predicted in minority populations. Predicted average life expectancy is 17 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: A probabilistic model of NIDDM predicts the vascular complications of NIDDM in a cohort representative of the incident cases of diabetes in the U.S. before age 75 years. Predictions of complications and mortality are consistent with the known epidemiology of NIDDM. The model is suitable for evaluating the effect of preventive interventions on the natural history of NIDDM.