BOADICEA breast cancer risk prediction model: updates to cancer incidences, tumour pathology and web interface.

BACKGROUND: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction model that is used to compute probabilities of carrying mutations in the high-risk breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, and to estimate the future risks of developing breast or ovarian cancer. In this paper, we describe updates to the BOADICEA model that extend its capabilities, make it easier to use in a clinical setting and yield more accurate predictions. METHODS: We describe: (1) updates to the statistical model to include cancer incidences from multiple populations; (2) updates to the distributions of tumour pathology characteristics using new data on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and women with breast cancer from the general population; (3) improvements to the computational efficiency of the algorithm so that risk calculations now run substantially faster; and (4) updates to the model's web interface to accommodate these new features and to make it easier to use in a clinical setting. RESULTS: We present results derived using the updated model, and demonstrate that the changes have a significant impact on risk predictions. CONCLUSION: All updates have been implemented in a new version of the BOADICEA web interface that is now available for general use: http://ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/boadicea/.

Allele losses in the region 17q12-21 in familial breast and ovarian cancer involve the wild-type chromosome.

A predisposing gene for breast and ovarian cancer has recently been mapped to chromosome 17q12-21. If this gene is a tumour suppressor gene, allele losses would be expected in the tumours of affected family members and the losses should affect the wild-type chromosome, reflecting the need for inactivation of the wild-type allele at the predisposing locus. In four multiple case breast-ovarian cancer families, we have found that in each of nine tumours which showed allele losses, the losses were from the wild-type chromosome. This suggests that the putative 'breast-ovarian' cancer gene is indeed a tumour suppressor gene.

A germline mutation in the androgen receptor gene in two brothers with breast cancer and Reifenstein syndrome.

Breast cancer in men is rare--among the risk factors that have been identified are a family history of breast cancer and evidence of androgen insufficiency. We report a family in which two brothers who both developed breast cancer had clinical and endocrinological evidence of androgen resistance. Sequence analysis revealed a mutation in the androgen receptor gene on the X chromosome, within the region encoding the DNA binding domain. This is the first report of a germline mutation in a member of the steroid/thyroid hormone receptor superfamily associated with the development of cancer.

Familial cylindromatosis (turban tumour syndrome) gene localised to chromosome 16q12-q13: evidence for its role as a tumour suppressor gene.

The human skin is a complex organ composed of the surface epidermis, the subjacent dermis (in which blood vessels, lymphatics and nerves are located) and the skin appendages. The latter include hair follicles, sebaceous glands (which secrete lipids that may serve as a permeability barrier, emollient or antimicrobial agent), apocrine glands (which secrete scents) and eccrine glands (which produce sweat for temperature control). Hereditary cylindromatosis (MIM 123850) is a rare autosomal dominant disease characterised by the development of multiple neoplasms originating from the skin appendages. These neoplasms have been termed cylindromas due to their characteristic microscopic architecture and are believed to exhibit apocrine or eccrine differentiation. We have carried out a genome search using two families with this disease, which has provided strong evidence for linkage of cylindromatosis to loci on chromosome 16q12-q13. Using markers close to the cylindromatosis gene, consistent loss of the wild-type allele was observed in 19 tumours from four individuals in the two families, indicating that the gene is likely to be a tumour suppressor gene.

A common variant in BRCA2 is associated with both breast cancer risk and prenatal viability.

Inherited mutations in the gene BRCA2 predispose carriers to early onset breast cancer, but such mutations account for fewer than 2% of all cases in East Anglia. It is likely that low penetrance alleles explain the greater part of inherited susceptibility to breast cancer; polymorphic variants in strongly predisposing genes, such as BRCA2, are candidates for this role. BRCA2 is thought to be involved in DNA double strand break-repair. Few mice in which Brca2 is truncated survive to birth; of those that do, most are male, smaller than their normal littermates and have high cancer incidence. Here we show that a common human polymorphism (N372H) in exon 10 of BRCA2 confers an increased risk of breast cancer: the HH homozygotes have a 1.31-fold (95% CI, 1.07-1.61) greater risk than the NN group. Moreover, in normal female controls of all ages there is a significant deficiency of homozygotes compared with that expected from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, whereas in males there is an excess of homozygotes: the HH group has an estimated fitness of 0.82 in females and 1.38 in males. Therefore, this variant of BRCA2 appears also to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner.

Ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 carriers is modified by the HRAS1 variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) locus.

Women who carry a mutation in the BRCA1 gene (on chromosome 17q21), have an 80% risk of breast cancer and a 40% risk of ovarian cancer by the age of 70 (ref. 1). The variable penetrance of BRCA1 suggests that other genetic and non-genetic factors play a role in tumourigenesis in these individuals. The HRAS1 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) polymorphism, located 1 kilobase (kb) downstream of the HRAS1 proto-oncogene (chromosome 11p15.5) is one possible genetic modifier of cancer penetrance. Individuals who have rare alleles of the VNTR have an increased risk of certain types of cancers, including breast cancer (2-4). To investigate whether the presence of rare HRAS1 alleles increases susceptibility to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, we have typed a panel of 307 female BRCA1 carriers at this locus using a PCR-based technique. The risk for ovarian cancer was 2.11 times greater for BRCA1 carriers harbouring one or two rare HRAS1 alleles, compared to carriers with only common alleles (P = 0.015). The magnitude of the relative risk associated with a rare HRAS1 allele was not altered by adjusting for the other known risk factors for hereditary ovarian cancer (5). Susceptibility to breast cancer did not appear to be affected by the presence of rare HRAS1 alleles. This study is the first to show the effect of a modifying gene on the penetrance of an inherited cancer syndrome.

Localization of the gene for Cowden disease to chromosome 10q22-23.

Cowden disease (CD) (MIM 158350), or multiple hamartoma syndrome, is a rare autosomal dominant familial cancer syndrome with a high risk of breast cancer. Its clinical features include a wide array of abnormalities but the main characteristics are hamartomas of the skin, breast, thyroid, oral mucosa and intestinal epithelium. The pathognomonic hamartomatous features of CD include multiple smooth facial papules, acral keratosis and multiple oral papillomas. The pathological hallmark of the facial papules are multiple trichilemmomas. Expression of the disease is variable and penetrance of the dermatological lesions is assumed to be virtually complete by the age of twenty. Central nervous system manifestations of CD were emphasized only recently and include megalencephaly, epilepsy and dysplastic gangliocytomas of the cerebellum (Lhermitte-Duclos disease, LDD). Early diagnosis is important since female patients with CD are at risk of developing breast cancer. Other lesions include benign and malignant disease of the thyroid, intestinal polyps and genitourinary abnormalities. To localize the gene for CD, an autosomal genome scan was performed. A total of 12 families were examined, resulting in a maximum lod score of 8.92 at theta = 0.02 with the marker D10S573 located on chromosome 10q22-23.

Localization to Xq27 of a susceptibility gene for testicular germ-cell tumours.

Testicular germ-cell tumours (TGCT) affect 1 in 500 men and are the most common cancer in males aged 15-40 in Western European populations. The incidence of TGCT has risen dramatically over the last century. Known risk factors for TGCT include a history of undescended testis (UDT), testicular dysgenesis, infertility, previously diagnosed TGCT (ref. 7) and a family history of the disease. Brothers of men with TGCT have an 8-10-fold risk of developing TGCT (refs 8,9), whereas the relative risk to fathers and sons is fourfold (ref. 9). This familial relative risk is much higher than that for most other types of cancer. We have collected samples from 134 families with two or more cases of TGCT, 87 of which are affected sibpairs. A genome-wide linkage search yielded a heterogeneity lod (hlod) score of 2.01 on chromosome Xq27 using all families compatible with X inheritance. We obtained a hlod score of 4.7 from families with at least one bilateral case, corresponding to a genome-wide significance level of P=0.034. The proportion of families with UDT linked to this locus was 73% compared with 26% of families without UDT (P=0.03). Our results provide evidence for a TGCT susceptibility gene on chromosome Xq27 that may also predispose to UDT.

Decreased breast cancer risk in systemic lupus erythematosus: the search for a genetic basis continues.

PURPOSE: Recent work has demonstrated an important decrease in breast cancers for women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The reason behind this phenomenon is unknown. Our purpose was to explore whether the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) predisposing to SLE might be protective against breast cancer (in women in the general population). METHODS: We focused on loci relevant to 10 SNPs associated with SLE (with a p value of <10(-9)). We determined whether we could establish a decreased frequency of these SNPs in breast cancer cases versus controls, within the general population. To do this we used a large breast cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS) dataset, involving 3,659 breast cancer cases and 4,897 controls. These subjects were all primarily of European ancestry. RESULTS: The population-based GWAS breast cancer data we examined suggested little evidence for important associations between breast cancer and SLE-related SNPs. Within the general population GWAS data, a cytosine(C) nucleotide substitution at rs9888739 (on chromosome 16p11.2) showed a very weak inverse association with breast cancer. The odds ratio (OR) for the rs9888739-C allele was 0.907551 (p value 0.049899) in the GWAS breast cancer sample, compared to controls. There was a slightly stronger, positive, association with breast cancer for rs6445975-G (Guanine) on chromosome 3p14.3, with a breast cancer OR of 1.0911 (p value 0.0097). CONCLUSIONS: Within this large breast cancer dataset, we did not demonstrate important associations with 10 lupus-associated SNPs. If decreased breast cancer risk in SLE is influenced by genetic profiles, this may be due to complex interactions and/or epigenetic factors.

Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening.

BACKGROUND: We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone. METHODS: We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N=31 and N=18, respectively). RESULTS: Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55-79: 10-year absolute risk ≥2%), personalised screening of men age 45-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47-79: 10-year absolute risk ≥2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases. CONCLUSION: Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening.

Lymphoid tumours and breast cancer in ataxia telangiectasia; substantial protective effect of residual ATM kinase activity against childhood tumours.

BACKGROUND: Immunodeficiency in ataxia telangiectasia (A-T) is less severe in patients expressing some mutant or normal ATM kinase activity. We, therefore, determined whether expression of residual ATM kinase activity also protected against tumour development in A-T. METHODS: From a total of 296 consecutive genetically confirmed A-T patients from the British Isles and the Netherlands, we identified 66 patients who developed a malignant tumour; 47 lymphoid tumours and 19 non-lymphoid tumours were diagnosed. We determined their ATM mutations, and whether cells from these patients expressed any ATM with residual ATM kinase activity. RESULTS: In childhood, total absence of ATM kinase activity was associated, almost exclusively, with development of lymphoid tumours. There was an overwhelming preponderance of tumours in patients <16 years without kinase activity compared with those with some residual activity, consistent with a substantial protective effect of residual ATM kinase activity against tumour development in childhood. In addition, the presence of eight breast cancers in A-T patients, a 30-fold increased risk, establishes breast cancer as part of the A-T phenotype. CONCLUSION: Overall, a spectrum of tumour types is associated with A-T, consistent with involvement of ATM in different mechanisms of tumour formation. Tumour type was influenced by ATM allelic heterogeneity, residual ATM kinase activity and age.

Evaluation of the XRCC1 gene as a phenotypic modifier in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Results from the consortium of investigators of modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2.

BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in DNA repair are good candidates to be tested as phenotypic modifiers for carriers of mutations in the high-risk susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. The base excision repair (BER) pathway could be particularly interesting given the relation of synthetic lethality that exists between one of the components of the pathway, PARP1, and both BRCA1 and BRCA2. In this study, we have evaluated the XRCC1 gene that participates in the BER pathway, as phenotypic modifier of BRCA1 and BRCA2. METHODS: Three common SNPs in the gene, c.-77C>T (rs3213245) p.Arg280His (rs25489) and p.Gln399Arg (rs25487) were analysed in a series of 701 BRCA1 and 576 BRCA2 mutation carriers. RESULTS: An association was observed between p.Arg280His-rs25489 and breast cancer risk for BRCA2 mutation carriers, with rare homozygotes at increased risk relative to common homozygotes (hazard ratio: 22.3, 95% confidence interval: 14.3-34, P<0.001). This association was further tested in a second series of 4480 BRCA1 and 3016 BRCA2 mutation carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1 and BRCA2. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERPRETATION: No evidence of association was found when the larger series was analysed which lead us to conclude that none of the three SNPs are significant modifiers of breast cancer risk for mutation carriers.

Identification of a novel prostate cancer susceptibility variant in the KLK3 gene transcript.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 30 prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. One of these (rs2735839) is located close to a plausible candidate susceptibility gene, KLK3, which encodes prostate-specific antigen (PSA). PSA is widely used as a biomarker for PrCa detection and disease monitoring. To refine the association between PrCa and variants in this region, we used genotyping data from a two-stage GWAS using samples from the UK and Australia, and the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) study. Genotypes were imputed for 197 and 312 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from HapMap2 and the 1000 Genome Project, respectively. The most significant association with PrCa was with a previously unidentified SNP, rs17632542 (combined P = 3.9 × 10(-22)). This association was confirmed by direct genotyping in three stages of the UK/Australian GWAS, involving 10,405 cases and 10,681 controls (combined P = 1.9 × 10(-34)). rs17632542 is also shown to be associated with PSA levels and it is a non-synonymous coding SNP (Ile179Thr) in KLK3. Using molecular dynamic simulation, we showed evidence that this variant has the potential to introduce alterations in the protein or affect RNA splicing. We propose that rs17632542 may directly influence PrCa risk.

Prostate cancer in BRCA2 germline mutation carriers is associated with poorer prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The germline BRCA2 mutation is associated with increased prostate cancer (PrCa) risk. We have assessed survival in young PrCa cases with a germline mutation in BRCA2 and investigated loss of heterozygosity at BRCA2 in their tumours. METHODS: Two cohorts were compared: one was a group with young-onset PrCa, tested for germline BRCA2 mutations (6 of 263 cases had a germline BRAC2 mutation), and the second was a validation set consisting of a clinical set from Manchester of known BRCA2 mutuation carriers (15 cases) with PrCa. Survival data were compared with a control series of patients in a single clinic as determined by Kaplan-Meier estimates. Loss of heterozygosity was tested for in the DNA of tumour tissue of the young-onset group by typing four microsatellite markers that flanked the BRCA2 gene, followed by sequencing. RESULTS: Median survival of all PrCa cases with a germline BRCA2 mutation was shorter at 4.8 years than was survival in controls at 8.5 years (P=0.002). Loss of heterozygosity was found in the majority of tumours of BRCA2 mutation carriers. Multivariate analysis confirmed that the poorer survival of PrCa in BRCA2 mutation carriers is associated with the germline BRCA2 mutation per se. CONCLUSION: BRCA2 germline mutation is an independent prognostic factor for survival in PrCa. Such patients should not be managed with active surveillance as they have more aggressive disease.

A recurrent truncating germline mutation in the BRIP1/FANCJ gene and susceptibility to prostate cancer.

Although prostate cancer (PrCa) is one of the most common cancers in men in Western countries, little is known about the inherited factors that influence PrCa risk. On the basis of the fact that BRIP1/FANCJ interacts with BRCA1 and functions as a regulator of DNA double-strand break repair pathways, and that germline mutations within the BRIP1/FANCJ gene predispose to breast cancer, we chose this gene as a candidate for mutation screening in familial and young-onset PrCa cases. We identified a truncating mutation, R798X, in the BRIP1/FANCJ gene in 4 out of 2714 UK PrCa cases enriched for familial (2 out of 641; 0.3%) and young-onset cases (2 out of 2073; 0.1%). On screening 2045 controls from the UK population, we found one R798X sequence alteration (0.05%; odds ratio 2.4 (95% CI 0.25-23.4)). In addition, using our data from a genome-wide association study, we analysed 25 SNPs in the genomic region of the BRIP1/FANCJ gene. Two SNPs showed evidence of association with familial and young-onset PrCa (rs6504074; P(trend)=0.04 and rs8076727; P(trend)=0.01). These results suggest that truncating mutations in BRIP1/FANCJ might confer an increased risk of PrCa and common SNPs might also contribute to the alteration of risk, but larger case-control series will be required to confirm or refute this association.

Tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate oncogenes and susceptibility to ovarian cancer.

Low-moderate risk alleles that are relatively common in the population may explain a significant proportion of the excess familial risk of ovarian cancer (OC) not attributed to highly penetrant genes. In this study, we evaluated the risks of OC associated with common germline variants in five oncogenes (BRAF, ERBB2, KRAS, NMI and PIK3CA) known to be involved in OC development. Thirty-four tagging SNPs in these genes were genotyped in approximately 1800 invasive OC cases and 3000 controls from population-based studies in Denmark, the United Kingdom and the United States. We found no evidence of disease association for SNPs in BRAF, KRAS, ERBB2 and PIK3CA when OC was considered as a single disease phenotype; but after stratification by histological subtype, we found borderline evidence of association for SNPs in KRAS and BRAF with mucinous OC and in ERBB2 and PIK3CA with endometrioid OC. For NMI, we identified a SNP (rs11683487) that was associated with a decreased risk of OC (unadjusted P(dominant)=0.004). We then genotyped rs11683487 in another 1097 cases and 1792 controls from an additional three case-control studies from the United States. The combined odds ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-0.99) and remained statistically significant (P(dominant)=0.032). We also identified two haplotypes in ERBB2 associated with an increased OC risk (P(global)=0.034) and a haplotype in BRAF that had a protective effect (P(global)=0.005). In conclusion, these data provide borderline evidence of association for common allelic variation in the NMI with risk of epithelial OC.

Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics.

OBJECTIVES: Genetic testing for the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 has important implications for the clinical management of people found to carry a mutation. However, genetic testing is expensive and may be associated with adverse psychosocial effects. To provide a cost-efficient and clinically appropriate genetic counselling service, genetic testing should be targeted at those individuals most likely to carry pathogenic mutations. Several algorithms that predict the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation are currently used in clinical practice to identify such individuals. DESIGN: We evaluated the performance of the carrier prediction algorithms BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, the Manchester scoring system and Myriad tables, using 1934 families seen in cancer genetics clinics in the UK in whom an index patient had been screened for BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 mutations. The models were evaluated for calibration, discrimination and accuracy of the predictions. RESULTS: Of the five algorithms, only BOADICEA predicted the overall observed number of mutations detected accurately (ie, was well calibrated). BOADICEA also provided the best discrimination, being significantly better (p<0.05) than all models except BRCAPRO (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics: BOADICEA = 0.77, BRCAPRO = 0.76, IBIS = 0.74, Manchester = 0.75, Myriad = 0.72). All models underpredicted the number of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the low estimated risk category. CONCLUSIONS: Carrier prediction algorithms provide a rational basis for counselling individuals likely to carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Their widespread use would improve equity of access and the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing.

Common variants in mismatch repair genes and risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The mismatch repair (MMR) genes are in charge of maintaining genomic integrity. Mutations in the MMR genes are at the origin of a familial form of colorectal cancer (CRC). This syndrome accounts for only a small proportion of the excess familial risk of CRC. The characteristics of the alleles that account for the remainder of cases are unknown. To assess the putative associations between common variants in MMR genes and CRC, we performed a genetic case-control study using a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) tagging approach. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 2299 cases and 2284 unrelated controls were genotyped for 68 tagging SNPs in seven MMR genes (MLH1, MLH3, MSH2, MSH3, MSH6, PMS1 and PMS2). Genotype frequencies were measured in cases and controls and analysed using univariate analysis. Haplotypes were constructed and analysed using logistic regression. We also carried out a two-locus interaction analysis and a global test analysis. RESULTS: Genotype frequencies were found to be marginally different in cases and controls for MSH3 rs26279 with a rare homozygote OR = 1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.62], p(trend) = 0.04. We found a rare MLH1 (frequency <5%) haplotype, increasing the risk of colorectal cancer: (OR = 9.76; 95% CI, 1.25 to 76.29; p = 0.03). The two-locus interaction analysis has exhibited signs of interaction between SNPs located in genes MSH6 and MSH2. Global testing has showed no evidence of interaction. CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that common variants in MMR genes contribute significantly to colorectal cancer.

Runs of homozygosity and testicular cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is highly heritable but > 50% of the genetic risk remains unexplained. Epidemiological observation of greater relative risk to brothers of men with TGCT compared to sons has long alluded to recessively acting TGCT genetic susceptibility factors, but to date none have been reported. Runs of homozygosity (RoH) are a signature indicating underlying recessively acting alleles and have been associated with increased risk of other cancer types. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether RoH are associated with TGCT risk. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide RoH analysis using GWAS data from 3206 TGCT cases and 7422 controls uniformly genotyped using the OncoArray platform. RESULTS: Global measures of homozygosity were not significantly different between cases and controls, and the frequency of individual consensus RoH was not significantly different between cases and controls, after correction for multiple testing. RoH at three regions, 11p13-11p14.3, 5q14.1-5q22.3 and 13q14.11-13q.14.13, were, however, nominally statistically significant at p < 0.01. Intriguingly, RoH200 at 11p13-11p14.3 encompasses Wilms tumour 1 (WT1), a recognized cancer susceptibility gene with roles in sex determination and developmental transcriptional regulation, processes repeatedly implicated in TGCT aetiology. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Overall, our data do not support a major role in the risk of TGCT for recessively acting alleles acting through homozygosity, as measured by RoH in outbred populations of cases and controls.

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers: updates and extensions.

Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920-1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program (http://www.srl.cam.ac.uk/genepi/boadicea/boadicea_home.html).