NRG-GY012: Randomized phase 2 study comparing olaparib, cediranib, and the combination of cediranib/olaparib in women with recurrent, persistent, or metastatic endometrial cancer.

PURPOSE: This paper reports the efficacy of the poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor olaparib alone and in combination with the antiangiogenesis agent cediranib compared with cediranib alone in patients with advanced endometrial cancer. METHODS: This was open-label, randomized, phase 2 trial (NCT03660826). Eligible patients had recurrent endometrial cancer, received at least one (<3) prior lines of chemotherapy, and were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 to 2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1), stratified by histology (serous vs. other) to receive cediranib alone (reference arm), olaparib, or olaparib and cediranib for 28-day cycles until progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary end point was progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. Homologous repair deficiency was explored using the BROCA-GO sequencing panel. RESULTS: A total of 120 patients were enrolled and all were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Median age was 66 (range, 41-86) years and 47 (39.2%) had serous histology. Median progression-free survival for cediranib was 3.8 months compared with 2.0 months for olaparib (hazard ratio, 1.45 [95% CI, 0.91-2.3] p = .935) and 5.5 months for olaparib/cediranib (hazard ratio, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.43-1.14] p = .064). Four patients receiving the combination had a durable response lasting more than 20 months. The most common grade 3/4 toxicities were hypertension in the cediranib (36%) and olaparib/cediranib (33%) arms, fatigue (20.5% olaparib/cediranib), and diarrhea (17.9% cediranib). The BROCA-GO panel results were not associated with response. CONCLUSION: The combination of cediranib and olaparib demonstrated modest clinical efficacy; however, the primary end point of the study was not met. The combination was safe without unexpected toxicity.

Phase II trial of pembrolizumab and epacadostat in recurrent clear cell carcinoma of the ovary: An NRG oncology study GY016.

INTRODUCTION: Early reports of PD-1 inhibition in ovarian clear cell carcinomas (OCCC) demonstrate promising response. We evaluated the combination of pembrolizumab and IDO-1 inhibitor epacadostat in patients with recurrent OCCC. METHODS: This single arm, two-stage, phase 2 trial included those with measurable disease and 1-3 prior regimens. Patients received intravenous pembrolizumab 200 mg every 3 weeks and oral epacadostat 100 mg twice a day. Primary endpoint was overall response rate (ORR), secondary endpoints were toxicity, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The study was powered to detect an absolute 25% increase in response (15% to 40%). RESULTS: Between September 28, 2018 and April 10, 2019, 14 patients enrolled at first stage. Rate of accrual was 2.3 patients per month. Median age was 65 years (44-89), 10 (71.4%) had ≥2 prior regimens. ORR was 21% (95% CI 5-51%) within 7 months of study entry with 3 partial responses, and 4 had stable disease (disease control rate 50%). Median PFS was 4.8 months (95% CI: 1.9-9.6), OS 18.9 months (95% CI: 1.9-NR). Most common grade ≥ 3 adverse events were electrolyte abnormalities and gastrointestinal pain, nausea, vomiting, bowel obstruction. In July 2019, the study reached the pre-specified criteria to re-open to second stage; however, the study closed prematurely in February 2021 due to insufficient drug supply. CONCLUSIONS: Pembrolizumab and epacadostat demonstrated an ORR of 21% in this small cohort of recurrent OCCC. The rapid rate of accrual highlights the enthusiasm and need for therapeutic studies in patients with OCCC.

Temporal Trends in the Remaining Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Middle-Aged Adults Across 6 Decades: The Framingham Study.

BACKGROUND: The remaining lifetime risk (RLR) is the probability of developing an outcome over the remainder of one's lifespan at any given age. The RLR for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in three 20-year periods were assessed using data from a single community-based cohort study of predominantly White participants. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Framingham study in 3 epochs (epoch 1, 1960-1979; epoch 2, 1980-1999; epoch 3, 2000-2018) were evaluated. The RLR of a first ASCVD event (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or stroke) from 45 years of age (adjusting for competing risk of death) in the 3 epochs were compared overall, and according to the following strata: sex, body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol categories, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score groups. RESULTS: There were 317 849 person-years of observations during the 3 epochs (56% women; 94% White) and 4855 deaths occurred. Life expectancy rose by 10.1 years (men) to 11.9 years (women) across the 3 epochs. There were 1085 ASCVD events over the course of 91 330 person-years in epoch 1, 1330 ASCVD events over the course of 107 450 person-years in epoch 2, and 775 ASCVD events over the course of 119 069 person-years in epoch 3. The mean age at onset of first ASCVD event was greater in the third epoch by 8.1 years (men) to 10.3 years (women) compared with the first epoch. The RLR of ASCVD from 45 years of age declined from 43.7% in epoch 1 to 28.1% in epoch 3 (P<0.0001), a finding that was consistent in both sexes (RLR [epoch 1 versus epoch 3], 36.3% versus 26.5% [women]; 52.5% versus 30.1% [men]; P<0.001 for both). The lower RLR of ASCVD in the last 2 epochs was observed consistently across body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, smoking, and Framingham risk score strata (P<0.001 for all). The RLR of coronary heart disease events and stroke declined in both sexes (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 6 decades, mean life expectancy increased and the RLR of ASCVD decreased in the community-based, predominantly White Framingham study. The residual burden of ASCVD underscores the importance of continued and effective primary prevention efforts with better screening for risk factors and their effective treatment.

Secondary Surgical Cytoreduction for Recurrent Ovarian Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Secondary surgical cytoreduction in women with platinum-sensitive, recurrent epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian-tube ("ovarian") cancer is widely practiced but has not been evaluated in phase 3 investigation. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with recurrent ovarian cancer who had received one previous therapy, had an interval during which no platinum-based chemotherapy was used (platinum-free interval) of 6 months or more, and had investigator-determined resectable disease (to no macroscopic residual disease) to undergo secondary surgical cytoreduction and then receive platinum-based chemotherapy or to receive platinum-based chemotherapy alone. Adjuvant chemotherapy (paclitaxel-carboplatin or gemcitabine-carboplatin) and use of bevacizumab were at the discretion of the investigator. The primary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 485 patients underwent randomization, 240 to secondary cytoreduction before chemotherapy and 245 to chemotherapy alone. The median follow-up was 48.1 months. Complete gross resection was achieved in 67% of the patients assigned to surgery who underwent the procedure. Platinum-based chemotherapy with bevacizumab followed by bevacizumab maintenance was administered to 84% of the patients overall and was equally distributed between the two groups. The hazard ratio for death (surgery vs. no surgery) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.72; P = 0.08), which corresponded to a median overall survival of 50.6 months and 64.7 months, respectively. Adjustment for platinum-free interval and chemotherapy choice did not alter the effect. The hazard ratio for disease progression or death (surgery vs. no surgery) was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.01; median progression-free survival, 18.9 months and 16.2 months, respectively). Surgical morbidity at 30 days was 9%; 1 patient (0.4%) died from postoperative complications. Patient-reported quality of life decreased significantly after surgery but did not differ significantly between the two groups after recovery. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving patients with platinum-sensitive, recurrent ovarian cancer, secondary surgical cytoreduction followed by chemotherapy did not result in longer overall survival than chemotherapy alone. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; GOG-0213 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00565851.).

Prognostic significance of ethnicity and age in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer: An NRG oncology/gynecologic oncology group study.

BACKGROUND: Age and ethnicity are among several factors that influence overall survival (OS) in ovarian cancer. The study objective was to determine whether ethnicity and age were of prognostic significance in women enrolled in a clinical trial evaluating the addition of bevacizumab to front-line therapy. METHODS: Women with advanced stage ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer were enrolled in a phase III clinical trial. All women had surgical staging and received adjuvant chemotherapy with one of three regimens. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between OS with age and race/ethnicity among the study participants. RESULTS: One-thousand-eight-hundred-seventy-three women were enrolled in the study. There were 280 minority women and 328 women over the age of 70. Women age 70 and older had a 34% increase risk for death when compared to women under 60 (HR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.16-1.54). Non-Hispanic Black women had a 54% decreased risk of death with the addition of maintenance bevacizumab (HR = 0.46, 95% CI:0.26-0.83). Women of Asian descent had more hematologic grade 3 or greater adverse events and a 27% decrease risk of death when compared to non-Hispanic Whites (HR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.59-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Non-Hispanic Black women showed a decreased risk of death with the addition of bevacizumab and patients of Asian ancestry had a lower death rate than all other minority groups, but despite these clinically meaningful improvements there was no statistically significant difference in OS among the groups.

Correlation of imaging and plasma based biomarkers to predict response to bevacizumab in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

PURPOSE: Increasing measures of adiposity have been correlated with poor oncologic outcomes and a lack of response to anti-angiogenic therapies. Limited data exists on the impact of subcutaneous fat density (SFD) and visceral fat density (VFD) on oncologic outcomes. This ancillary analysis of GOG-218, evaluates whether imaging markers of adiposity were predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab (bev) use in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 1249 patients (67%) from GOG-218 with imaging measurements. SFD and VFD were calculated utilizing Hounsfield units (HU). Proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between SFD and VFD with overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Increased SFD and VFD showed an increased HR for death (HR per 1-SD increase 1.12, 95% CI:1.05-1.19 p = 0.0009 and 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-1.20 p = 0.0006 respectively). In the predictive analysis for response to bev, high VFD showed an increased hazard for death in the placebo group (HR per 1-SD increase 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09-1.37; p = 0.025). However, in the bev group there was no effect seen (HR per 1-SD increase: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.90-1.14) Median OS was 45 vs 47 months in the VFD low groups and 36 vs 42 months in the VFD high groups on placebo versus bev, respectively. CONCLUSION: High VFD and SFD have a negative prognostic impact on patients with EOC. High VFD appears to be a predictive marker of bev response and patients with high VFD may be more likely to benefit from initial treatment with bev.

Standardization of lower extremity quantitative lymphedema measurements and associated patient-reported outcomes in gynecologic cancers.

Practice changing standardization of lower extremity lymphedema quantitative measurements with integrated patient reported outcomes will likely refine and redefine the optimal risk-reduction strategies to diminish the devastating limb-related dysfunction and morbidity associated with treatment of gynecologic cancers. The National Cancer Institute (NCI), Division of Cancer Prevention brought together a diverse group of cancer treatment, therapy and patient reported outcomes experts to discuss the current state-of-the-science in lymphedema evaluation with the potential goal of incorporating new strategies for optimal evaluation of lymphedema in future developing gynecologic clinical trials.

The addition of paclitaxel to doxorubicin and cisplatin and volume-directed radiation does not improve overall survival (OS) or long-term recurrence-free survival (RFS) in advanced endometrial cancer (EC): A randomized phase III NRG/Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if the addition of paclitaxel (P) to cisplatin and doxorubicin (CD) following surgical debulking and volume-directed radiation therapy improved long-term, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced-stage endometrial cancer (EC). METHODS: Prospective, randomized GOG trial comparing (CD) (50 mg/m2)/(45 mg/m2) +/- (P) (160 mg/m2) following volume-directed radiation and surgery in advanced EC. A Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis characterized the relationship between treatment arms and the OS outcome, a log-rank test assessed the independence of treatment with the OS outcome, and the treatment effect on estimated OS was determined using a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model stratified by stage. The PH assumption was assessed using a test of interaction between treatment variable and the natural logarithm of survival time. Adverse events, regardless of attribution, were graded. RESULTS: Since initial publication, 60 deaths occurred, leaving 311 patients alive with 290 (93.8%) recurrence- free. There was no significant decrease in the risk of recurrence or death associated with the CDP treatment regimen stratified for stage (p = 0.14, one-tail). The exploratory analysis for OS and the corresponding homogeneity tests for different effects across subgroups revealed only EFRT and EFRT & GRD status to have significantly different treatment effects (p = 0.027 and p = 0.017, respectively). Second primary malignancies were identified in 17/253 (6.4%) and 19/263 (7.0%) of patients treated with CD and CDP respectively. Breast (2.4%) followed by colon (1%) were the two cancers most frequently diagnosed in this setting. CONCLUSION: No significant difference between treatment arms was identified. Subgroup analysis both in the initial and current reports demonstrated a trend towards improved RFS and OS in patients treated with CDP and EFRT. This long-term analysis of outcomes also identified the necessity of providing on-going cancer screening to patients enrolled in trials.

Measures for evaluation of prognostic improvement under multivariate normality for nested and nonnested models.

When comparing performances of two risk prediction models, several metrics exist to quantify prognostic improvement, including the change in the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement, the Net Reclassification Index at event rate, the change in Standardized Net Benefit, the change in Brier score, and the change in scaled Brier score. We explore the behavior and interrelationships between these metrics under multivariate normality in nested and nonnested model comparisons. We demonstrate that, within the framework of linear discriminant analysis, all six statistics are functions of squared Mahalanobis distance, a robust metric that properly measures discrimination by quantifying the separation between the risk scores of events and nonevents. These relationships are important for overall interpretability and clinical usefulness. Through simulation, we demonstrate that the performance of the theoretical estimators under normality is comparable or superior to empirical estimation methods typically used by investigators. In particular, the theoretical estimators for the Net Reclassification Index and the change in Standardized Net Benefit exhibit less variability in their estimates as compared to their empirically estimated counterparts. Finally, we explore how these metrics behave with potentially nonnormal data by applying these methods in a practical example based on the sex-specific cardiovascular disease risk models from the Framingham Heart Study. Our findings aim to give greater insight into the behavior of these measures and the connections existing among them and to provide additional estimation methods with less variability for the Net Reclassification Index and the change in Standardized Net Benefit.

Recontact practices of cancer genetic counselors and an exploration of professional, legal, and ethical duty.

The duty to recontact continues to be revisited in the field of clinical genetics and is currently relevant for cancer genetic counseling given the transition from single-gene to multi-gene panel testing. We recruited cancer genetic counselors through the National Society of Genetic Counselors list-serv to complete an online survey assessing current practices and perspectives regarding recontacting patients about diagnostic genetic tests. Forty-one percent of respondents reported that they have recontacted patients to offer updated (new) diagnostic genetic testing (40/97). A majority (61%, 17/28), of genetic counselors who reported recontact specifically for panel testing indicated that the availability of management recommendations for genes not previously tested routinely was an important factor in the decision to recontact. All respondents who recontacted patients reported "improved patient care" as a perceived benefit. Respondents indicated that recontact is mostly a patient responsibility (49%), followed by a shared responsibility between the provider and patient (43%). Few respondents (2%) reported a uniform ethical duty to recontact patients regarding new and updated testing, while the majority (89%) felt that there was some degree of ethical duty. A greater percentage of those who reported past recontact practices reported intention to recontact in the future (p = 0.001). There is little consensus among the genetic counselor respondents about how to approach the recontacting of patients to offer updated genetic testing.

Association of Exhaled Carbon Monoxide With Stroke Incidence and Subclinical Vascular Brain Injury: Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) is associated with cardiometabolic traits, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular disease, but its specific relations with stroke are unexplored. We related exhaled CO to magnetic resonance imaging measures of subclinical cerebrovascular disease cross-sectionally and to incident stroke/transient ischemic attack prospectively in the Framingham Offspring study. METHODS: We measured exhaled CO in 3313 participants (age 59±10 years; 53% women), and brain magnetic resonance imaging was available in 1982 individuals (age 58±10 years; 54% women). Participants were analyzed according to tertiles of exhaled CO concentration. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted models, the highest tertile of exhaled CO was associated with lower total cerebral brain volumes, higher white-matter hyperintensity volumes, and greater prevalence of silent cerebral infarcts (P<0.05 for all). The results for total cerebral brain volume and white-matter hyperintensity volume were consistent after removing smokers from the sample, and the association with white-matter hyperintensity volume persisted after multivariable adjustment (P=0.04). In prospective analyses (mean follow-up 12.9 years), higher exhaled CO was associated with 67% (second tertile) and 97% (top tertile) increased incidence of stroke/transient ischemic attack relative to the first tertile that served as referent (P<0.01 for both). These results were consistent in nonsmokers and were partially attenuated upon adjustment for vascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, community-based sample of individuals without clinical stroke/transient ischemic attack at baseline, higher exhaled CO was associated with a greater burden of subclinical cerebrovascular disease cross-sectionally and with increased risk of stroke/transient ischemic attack prospectively. Further investigation is necessary to explore the biological mechanisms linking elevated CO with stroke.

Association of Ideal Cardiovascular Health With Vascular Brain Injury and Incident Dementia.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The American Heart Association developed the ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) index as a simple tool to promote CVH; yet, its association with brain atrophy and dementia remains unexamined. METHODS: Our aim was to investigate the prospective association of ideal CVH with vascular brain injury, including the 10-year risks of incident stroke and dementia, as well as cognitive decline and brain atrophy on magnetic resonance imaging, measured for ≈7 years. We studied 2750 stroke- and dementia-free Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort participants (mean age, 62±9 years; 45% men). Ideal CVH was quantified on a 7-point scale with 1 point awarded for each of the following: nonsmoking status, ideal body mass index, regular physical activity, healthy diet, as well as optimum blood pressure, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose. Both recent (baseline) and remote (6.9 years earlier) ideal CVH scores were examined. RESULTS: Recent ideal CVH was associated with stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.95), vascular dementia (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.81), frontal brain atrophy (P=0.003), and cognitive decline on tasks measuring visual memory and reasoning (P<0.05). In addition to predicting stroke, vascular dementia, whole-brain atrophy, and cognitive decline, remote ideal CVH was associated with the incidence of all-cause dementia (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.97) and Alzheimer disease (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to the American Heart Association's ideal CVH factors and behaviors, particularly in midlife, may protect against cerebrovascular disease and dementia.

Ideal cardiovascular health: associations with biomarkers and subclinical disease and impact on incidence of cardiovascular disease in the Framingham Offspring Study.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association Cardiovascular Health score (CVH score) is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but the mechanisms underlying this association warrant exploration. METHODS AND RESULTS: We related the CVH score to circulating biomarkers and prevalent subclinical CVD (defined as ≥1 of the following: increased carotid intima-media thickness or stenosis, left ventricular hypertrophy [by ECG or echocardiography], left ventricular systolic dysfunction, microalbuminuria, and a reduced ankle-brachial index) in 2680 Framingham Study participants (mean age, 58 years; 55% women). After adjustment for age and sex, an ideal CVH score (nonsmoking status, ideal body mass index, regular physical activity, healthy diet, and an optimal profile of serum cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose; 1 point for each) was associated with higher circulating concentrations of natriuretic peptides (N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and B-type natriuretic peptide) and lower blood concentrations of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, aldosterone, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, fibrinogen, homocysteine, and growth differentiation factor-15 levels (P<0.001 for all), as well as lower odds of subclinical disease (odds ratio, 0.74 per 1-unit increase in CVH score; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.80). The incidence of CVD (267 events over 16 years) was inversely associated with the CVH score in age- and sex-adjusted models (hazard ratio, 0.77 per 1-unit increase in CVH score; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.86), which was slightly attenuated upon adjustment for biomarkers and subclinical disease (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). CONCLUSION: In our prospective community-based study, the inverse association between an ideal cardiovascular health score and CVD incidence was partly attributable to its favorable impact on CVD biomarker levels and subclinical disease.

Association of exhaled carbon monoxide with subclinical cardiovascular disease and their conjoint impact on the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes.

AIMS: Whereas endogenous carbon monoxide (CO) is cytoprotective at physiologic levels, excess CO concentrations are associated with cardiometabolic risk and may represent an important marker of progression from subclinical to clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1926 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (aged 57 ± 10 years, 46% women), we investigated the relationship of exhaled CO, a surrogate of blood CO concentration, with both prevalent subclinical CVD and incident clinical CVD events. Presence of subclinical CVD was determined using a comprehensive panel of diagnostic tests used to assess cardiac and vascular structure and function. Individuals with the highest (>5 p.p.m.) compared with lowest (≤4 p.p.m.) CO exposure were more likely to have subclinical CVD [odds ratios (OR): 1.67, 95% CI: 1.32-2.12; P < 0.001]. During the follow-up period (mean 5 ± 3 years), 193 individuals developed overt CVD. Individuals with both high CO levels and any baseline subclinical CVD developed overt CVD at an almost four-fold higher rate compared with those with low CO levels and no subclinical disease (22.1 vs. 6.3%). Notably, elevated CO was associated with incident CVD in the presence [hazards ration (HR): 1.83, 95% CI: 1.08-3.11; P = 0.026] but not in the absence (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.42-1.53; P = 0.51) of subclinical CVD (Pinteraction = 0.019). Similarly, subclinical CVD was associated with incident CVD in the presence of high but not low CO exposure. CONCLUSION: Our findings in a community-based sample suggest that elevated CO is a marker of greater subclinical CVD burden and, furthermore, a potential key component in the progression from subclinical to clinical CVD.

Radiation Therapy With or Without Cisplatin for Local Recurrences of Endometrial Cancer: Results From an NRG Oncology/GOG Prospective Randomized Multicenter Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: Pelvic recurrence is a frequent pattern of relapse for women with endometrial cancer. A randomized trial compared progression-free survival (PFS) after treatment with radiation therapy alone as compared with concurrent chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between February 2008 and August 2020, 165 patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either radiation treatment alone or a combination of chemotherapy and radiation treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine whether chemoradiation therapy was more effective than radiation therapy alone at improving PFS. RESULTS: The majority of patients had low-grade (1 or 2) endometrioid histology (82%) and recurrences confined to the vagina (86%). External beam with either the three-dimensional or intensity modulated radiation treatment technique was followed by a boost delivered with brachytherapy or external beam. Patients randomly assigned to receive chemotherapy were treated with once weekly cisplatin (40 mg/m2). Rates of acute toxicity were higher in patients treated with chemoradiation as compared with radiation treatment alone. Median PFS was longer for patients treated with radiation therapy alone as compared with chemotherapy and radiation (median PFS was not reached for RT v 73 months for chemoradiation, hazard ratio of 1.25 (95% CI, 0.75 to 2.07). At 3 years, 73% of patients treated definitively with radiation and 62% of patients treated with chemoradiation were alive and free of disease progression. CONCLUSION: Excellent outcomes can be achieved for women with localized recurrences of endometrial cancer when treated with radiation therapy. The addition of chemotherapy does not improve PFS for patients treated with definitive radiation therapy for recurrent endometrial cancer and increases acute toxicity. Patients with low-grade and vaginal recurrences who constituted the majority of those enrolled are best treated with radiation therapy alone.

Missing repeated measures data in clinical trials.

Clinical trials typically collect longitudinal data, data that are collected repeated over time, such as laboratories, scans, or patient-reported outcomes. Due to a variety of reasons, this data can be missing, whether a patient stops attending clinical visits (ie, dropout) or misses assessments intermittently. Understanding the reasons for missing data as well as predictors of missing data can aid in determination of the missing data mechanism. The analysis methods used are dependent on the missing data mechanism and may make certain assumptions about the missing data itself. Methods for nonignorable missing data, which assumes that the missing data depend on the missing data itself, make stronger assumptions and include pattern-mixture models and shared parameter models. Missing data that are ignorable after adjusting for other covariates can be analyzed using methods that adjust for covariates, such as mixed-effects models or multiple imputation. Missing data that are ignorable can be analyzed using standard approaches that require complete case data, such as change from baseline or proportion of patients who declined at a specified time point. In clinical trials, truly ignorable data are rare, resulting in additional analysis methods required for proper interpretation of the results. Conducting several analyses under different assumptions, called sensitivity analyses, can determine the extent of the impact of the missing data.

Lifetime Risk of Heart Failure Among Participants in the Framingham Study.

BACKGROUND: The residual lifetime risk (RLR) of developing heart failure (HF) may have changed over time because of the increasing population burden of hypertension, obesity, and diabetes; greater survival after myocardial infarction; and a greater lifespan. OBJECTIVES: The authors assessed changes in the RLR for HF in two 25-year epochs (1965-1989 and 1990-2014). METHODS: We compared the RLR of HF at age 50 years (adjusting for competing risk of death) in the 2 epochs in Framingham Study participants overall and in the following strata: sex, body mass index, blood pressure, and diabetes. RESULTS: Mean life expectancy increased from 75.9 to 82.1 years in women and 72.5 to 78.1 years in men. We observed 624 HF events over 111,351 person-observations in epoch 1, and 875 HF events over 128,903 person-observations in epoch 2. The mean age at onset of HF increased across the epochs by 6.6 years (women) to 7.2 years (men). The RLR of HF at age 50 years increased across epochs from 18.86% to 22.55% (absolute increase 3.69; 95% CI: 0.90-6.49; P = 0.01) in women, and from 19.19% to 25.25% (absolute increase 6.06; 95% CI: 3.08-9.04; P < 0.001) in men. The increase in RLR of HF in the second epoch was consistent across strata with excess body mass index or higher blood pressure (relative increase of 28%-47%) and in participants without prior myocardial infarction (relative increase of 23%). CONCLUSIONS: The RLR of HF has increased in our community-based sample of White individuals over the last 5 decades, possibly caused by an increase in life expectancy.

Clinical course after a first episode of heart failure: insights from the Framingham Heart Study.

AIMS: We sought to describe the frequency, type and timing of clinical events, and delineate patterns in their transitions, after a first episode of heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1036 Framingham participants with new-onset HF (mean age 79 years; 53% women), we used mixture models to estimate probabilities of, and time to cardiac death, other cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, recurrent HF, cardiac events and other CVD events, accounting for age, sex, HF type (preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction), and prevalent cardiac/CVD events. The most common first events after new-onset HF were cardiac (36%), recurrent HF (28%) and death (29%). Compared with recurrent HF (referent transition state), prevalent cardiac events were associated with higher odds of fatal [odds ratio (OR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-3.23] and non-fatal (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.52-3.00) cardiac events; prevalent CVD increased odds of other CVD death (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.04-3.47). Among 715 participants without a fatal initial event, there were 3337 distinct epochs (inter-event time periods), with median 3.0 epochs/participant [49% cardiac (n = 1639); 27% recurrent HF (n = 912)]. Median inter-event times varied between 12 to 285 days (recurrent HF to other CVD death and non-fatal other CVD, respectively). Prior HF, cardiac and other CVD events significantly increased odds of developing the same event-type (OR ∼ 5-7-fold), with shortened time to recurrence, indicating 'rapid cycling loops' of the same event type. HF type did not impact the nature or timing of future events. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities but not HF type impact clinical course of HF by influencing the type and timing of subsequent events, denoting 'natural history loops' within the overall HF population.

Sequential Ipilimumab After Chemoradiotherapy in Curative-Intent Treatment of Patients With Node-Positive Cervical Cancer.

IMPORTANCE: Despite standard chemoradiotherapy (CRT), most women with lymph node (LN)-positive cervical cancer experience disease recurrence. Immunotherapy is being investigated in the up-front treatment setting. OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety of sequential immunotherapy after CRT and to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype and HLA allele status on survival and programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) expression before and after CRT and sequential immunotherapy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective phase 1 trial conducted in 29 Gynecology Oncology Cooperative Group member institutions enrolled participants from December 18, 2012, to August 31, 2016, with a 14.8-month median follow-up and translational end points. Thirty-four women with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage IB2 to IVA cervical cancer with positive pelvic LNs, para-aortic LNs, or both were enrolled; 13 did not receive ipilimumab and were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from January 21 to April 4, 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment consisted of 6 weekly doses of cisplatin, 40 mg/m2, concurrent with radiotherapy. After completion of chemotherapy, sequential ipilimumab was given every 21 days for 4 doses. Two dosage levels of ipilimumab, 3 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg, were studied to identify the maximum tolerated dose. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was safety, and the secondary end points were overall survival and progression-free survival. Exploratory end points included HPV genotype, HLA allele status, and PD-1 expression measured in peripheral blood. RESULTS: The median age of the 32 participants included in the intent-to-treat analysis was 50 (range, 26-61) years, and 22 patients (69%) were white. Of the 21 patients who received ipilimumab, all had positive pelvic LN, and 6 (29%) had positive para-aortic LNs. All patients completed CRT, and of the 21 patients who received at least 2 cycles of ipilimumab, 18 (86%) completed 4 cycles of ipilimumab, and 3 (14%) completed 2 cycles. The maximum tolerated dose was 10 mg/kg. Two of the 21 patients (9.5%) who received ipilimumab had self-limiting grade 3 toxic effects (lipase increase; dermatitis). The 12-month overall survival was 90%, and progression-free survival was 81%. Human papillomavirus genotype and HLA subtype were not associated with progression-free survival or overall survival. T cells expressing PD-1 increased after CRT, and levels were sustained with ipilimumab. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study's findings suggest that the use of immunotherapy after CRT for curative-intent treatment of patients with cervical cancer is tolerable and effective. The results indicated that PD-1 was upregulated after CRT and sustained with sequential ipilimumab therapy. These immune findings may help guide future therapies to harness the activated T-cell phenotype in patients with node-positive cervical cancer.

Immune Activation in Patients with Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Treated with Ipilimumab Following Definitive Chemoradiation (GOG-9929).

PURPOSE: A phase I clinical trial (GOG-9929) examined the safety and efficacy of adjuvant immune-modulation therapy with the checkpoint inhibitor ipilimumab [anti-CTL antigen-4 (anti-CTLA-4)] following chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for newly diagnosed node-positive human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cervical cancer. To better understand the mechanism of action and to identify predictive biomarkers, immunologic and viral correlates were assessed before, during, and after treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-one patients who received CRT and ≥2 doses of ipilimumab and 5 patients who received CRT only were evaluable for translational endpoints. Circulating T-cell subsets were evaluated by multiparameter flow cytometry. Cytokines were evaluated by multiplex ELISA. HPV-specific T cells were evaluated in a subset of patients by IFNγ ELISpot. RESULTS: Expression of the activation markers ICOS and PD-1 significantly increased on T-cell subsets following CRT and were sustained or increased following ipilimumab treatment. Combined CRT/ipilimumab treatment resulted in a significant expansion of both central and effector memory T-cell populations. Genotype-specific E6/E7-specific T-cell responses increased post-CRT in 1 of 8 HPV16+ patients and in 2 of 3 HPV18+ patients. Elevation in levels of tumor-promoting circulating cytokines (TNFα, IL6, IL8) post-CRT was significantly associated with worse progression-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that CRT alone and combined with ipilimumab immunotherapy show immune-modulating activity in women with locally advanced cervical cancer and may be a promising therapeutic option for the enhancement of antitumor immune cell function after primary CRT for this population at high risk for recurrence and metastasis. Several key immune biomarkers were identified that were associated with clinical response.