Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations.

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants' runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12-24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

Improvements in modeling sagebrush concentrations of radioiodine released from the Hanford site.

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project estimated the radiation dose to individuals from historical emissions of radioactive materials from the Hanford Site in Washington State. Project validation studies using predicted activity concentrations of 131I on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) showed a systematic underestimation against historical data during cold weather months, indicating a need for sagebrush model improvement. A deposition model for semi-volatile organic materials presented by Komp and McLachlen (Environ. Sci. Tech. 31 (1997) 886-890) is adapted here for gaseous iodine onto sagebrush. The deposition model includes a temperature-dependent term based on an integrated van't Hoff equation. Calibration data for the model are obtained from a release of 131I in 1963. Modeling results for releases in 1946 show a good match between historical data and predicted results using the new model. The new model shows improvement over interception-fraction type models, but requires plant-type-specific calibration data.

Potential impact of releases from a new molybdenum-99 production facility on regional measurements of airborne xenon isotopes.

The monitoring of the radioactive xenon isotopes (131m)Xe, (133)Xe, (133m)Xe, and (135)Xe is important for the detection of nuclear explosions. While backgrounds of the xenon isotopes are short-lived, they are constantly replenished from activities dominated by the fission-based production of (99)Mo used for medical procedures. At present, one of the most critical locations on earth for the monitoring of nuclear explosions is the Korean peninsula where the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has announced that it conducted three nuclear tests between 2006 and 2013. This paper explores the backgrounds that would be caused by the medium to large scale production of (99)Mo in the region of the Korean peninsula.

Source term estimation of radioxenon released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactors using measured air concentrations and atmospheric transport modeling.

Systems designed to monitor airborne radionuclides released from underground nuclear explosions detected radioactive fallout across the northern hemisphere resulting from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011. Sampling data from multiple International Modeling System locations are combined with atmospheric transport modeling to estimate the magnitude and time sequence of releases of (133)Xe. Modeled dilution factors at five different detection locations were combined with 57 atmospheric concentration measurements of (133)Xe taken from March 18 to March 23 to estimate the source term. This analysis suggests that 92% of the 1.24 × 10(19) Bq of (133)Xe present in the three operating reactors at the time of the earthquake was released to the atmosphere over a 3 d period. An uncertainty analysis bounds the release estimates to 54-129% of available (133)Xe inventory.

Analysis of data from sensitive U.S. monitoring stations for the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactor accident.

The March 11, 2011 9.0 magnitude undersea megathrust earthquake off the coast of Japan and subsequent tsunami waves triggered a major nuclear event at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. At the time of the event, units 1, 2, and 3 were operating and units 4, 5, and 6 were in a shutdown condition for maintenance. Loss of cooling capacity to the plants along with structural damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami resulted in a breach of the nuclear fuel integrity and release of radioactive fission products to the environment. Fission products started to arrive in the United States via atmospheric transport on March 15, 2011 and peaked by March 23, 2011. Atmospheric activity concentrations of (131)I reached levels of 3.0×10(-2) Bqm(-3) in Melbourne, FL. The noble gas (133)Xe reached atmospheric activity concentrations in Ashland, KS of 17 Bqm(-3). While these levels are not health concerns, they were well above the detection capability of the radionuclide monitoring systems within the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

Elevated radioxenon detected remotely following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

We report on the first measurements of short-lived gaseous fission products detected outside of Japan following the Fukushima nuclear releases, which occurred after a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. The measurements were conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), (46°16'47″N, 119°16'53″W) located more than 7000 km from the emission point in Fukushima Japan (37°25'17″N, 141°1'57″E). First detections of (133)Xe were made starting early March 16, only four days following the earthquake. Maximum concentrations of (133)Xe were in excess of 40 Bq/m(3), which is more than ×40,000 the average concentration of this isotope is this part of the United States.