An epidemiological model for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in Europe.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71% for a model based on age alone to 77% (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.

No association between fish consumption and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain): a 13·8-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the associations between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish intakes and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain). DESIGN: Fish intake was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the intakes of lean fish, fatty fish and total fish and stroke risk. Models were run separately for men and women. SETTING: Five Spanish regions (Asturias, San Sebastian, Navarra, Granada and Murcia). SUBJECTS: Individuals (n 41 020; 15 490 men and 25 530 women) aged 20-69 years, recruited from 1992 to 1996 and followed-up until December 2008 (December 2006 in the case of Asturias). Only participants with definite incident stroke were considered as cases. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13·8 years, 674 strokes were identified and subsequently validated by record linkage with hospital discharge databases, primary-care records and regional mortality registries, comprising 531 ischaemic, seventy-nine haemorrhagic, forty-two subarachnoid and twenty-two unspecific strokes. After multiple adjustments, no significant associations were observed between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and the risk of stroke in men or women. In men, results revealed a non-significant trend towards an inverse association between lean fish (hazard ratio=0·84; 95 % CI 0·55, 1·29, P trend=0·06) and total fish consumption (hazard ratio=0·77; 95 % CI 0·51, 1·16, P trend=0·06) and risk of total stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In the EPIC-Spain cohort, no association was found between lean fish, fatty fish and total fish consumption and risk of stroke.

Association between different obesity measures and the risk of stroke in the EPIC Spanish cohort.

INTRODUCTION: There is still a scientific debate on the exact role played by obesity on stroke risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to analyze the association between obesity, measured by different indices such as body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and a new one called A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and the risk of total and ischemic stroke. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 41,020 subjects (15,490 men and 25,530 women) aged 29-69 years participated in the study. All participants were recruited between 1992 and 1996 and followed up until 2008 to ascertain incident cerebrovascular disease events. Cox proportional hazards models were designed to estimate the relative risk and 95% CI between obesity and cerebrovascular disease incidence. RESULTS: After 13.8 years of follow-up, a total of 674 stroke cases (55.3% in men) were registered (531 ischemic, 79 hemorrhagic, 42 subarachnoid hemorrhage and 22 unspecified). WC fourth quartile (HR 1.95; 95% CI 1.20-3.19) and WHR fourth quartile (HR 1.58; 95% CI 1.12-2.25) were positively associated with total stroke only in men. BMI was not associated with stroke incidence. The new index, ABSI, was significantly associated with total stroke incidence only in men (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.06-2.23). CONCLUSIONS: Data from the Spanish EPIC cohort study show a strong association of WC and WHR with the relative risk of suffering a stroke only in men, while no associations were found for BMI. It supports the suggestion of other authors of using more than one obesity index in the study of stroke risk prediction.

Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

A Prospective Evaluation of Early Detection Biomarkers for Ovarian Cancer in the European EPIC Cohort.

PURPOSE: About 60% of ovarian cancers are diagnosed at late stage, when 5-year survival is less than 30% in contrast to 90% for local disease. This has prompted search for early detection biomarkers. For initial testing, specimens taken months or years before ovarian cancer diagnosis are the best source of information to evaluate early detection biomarkers. Here we evaluate the most promising ovarian cancer screening biomarkers in prospectively collected samples from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We measured CA125, HE4, CA72.4, and CA15.3 in 810 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 1,939 controls. We calculated the sensitivity at 95% and 98% specificity as well as area under the receiver operator curve (C-statistic) for each marker individually and in combination. In addition, we evaluated marker performance by stage at diagnosis and time between blood draw and diagnosis. RESULTS: We observed the best discrimination between cases and controls within 6 months of diagnosis for CA125 (C-statistic = 0.92), then HE4 (0.84), CA72.4 (0.77), and CA15.3 (0.73). Marker performance declined with longer time between blood draw and diagnosis and for earlier staged disease. However, assessment of discriminatory ability at early stage was limited by small numbers. Combinations of markers performed modestly, but significantly better than any single marker. CONCLUSIONS: CA125 remains the single best marker for the early detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, but can be slightly improved by combining with other markers. Identifying novel markers for ovarian cancer will require studies including larger numbers of early-stage cases. Clin Cancer Res; 22(18); 4664-75. ©2016 AACRSee related commentary by Skates, p. 4542.