Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong Province, China.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and was first reported in central China in December 2019. Extensive molecular surveillance in Guangdong, China's most populous province, during early 2020 resulted in 1,388 reported RNA-positive cases from 1.6 million tests. In order to understand the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in China, we generated 53 genomes from infected individuals in Guangdong using a combination of metagenomic sequencing and tiling amplicon approaches. Combined epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate multiple independent introductions to Guangdong, although phylogenetic clustering is uncertain because of low virus genetic variation early in the pandemic. Our results illustrate how the timing, size, and duration of putative local transmission chains were constrained by national travel restrictions and by the province's large-scale intensive surveillance and intervention measures. Despite these successes, COVID-19 surveillance in Guangdong is still required, because the number of cases imported from other countries has increased.

Genomic Insights into Zika Virus Emergence and Spread.

The emergence and spread of Zika virus in the Americas continues to challenge our disease surveillance systems. Virus genome sequencing during the epidemic uncovered the timescale of Zika virus transmission and spread. Yet, we are only beginning to explore how genomics can enhance our responses to emerging viruses.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus.

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here, we propose adding 2 sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present assignment tools to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national, and subnational discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

Molecular Epidemiology of Mayaro Virus among Febrile Patients, Roraima State, Brazil, 2018-2021.

We detected Mayaro virus (MAYV) in 3.4% (28/822) of febrile patients tested during 2018-2021 from Roraima State, Brazil. We also isolated MAYV strains and confirmed that these cases were caused by genotype D. Improved surveillance is needed to better determine the burden of MAYV in the Amazon Region.

Neural stem cells traffic functional mitochondria via extracellular vesicles.

Neural stem cell (NSC) transplantation induces recovery in animal models of central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Although the replacement of lost endogenous cells was originally proposed as the primary healing mechanism of NSC grafts, it is now clear that transplanted NSCs operate via multiple mechanisms, including the horizontal exchange of therapeutic cargoes to host cells via extracellular vesicles (EVs). EVs are membrane particles trafficking nucleic acids, proteins, metabolites and metabolic enzymes, lipids, and entire organelles. However, the function and the contribution of these cargoes to the broad therapeutic effects of NSCs are yet to be fully understood. Mitochondrial dysfunction is an established feature of several inflammatory and degenerative CNS disorders, most of which are potentially treatable with exogenous stem cell therapeutics. Herein, we investigated the hypothesis that NSCs release and traffic functional mitochondria via EVs to restore mitochondrial function in target cells. Untargeted proteomics revealed a significant enrichment of mitochondrial proteins spontaneously released by NSCs in EVs. Morphological and functional analyses confirmed the presence of ultrastructurally intact mitochondria within EVs with conserved membrane potential and respiration. We found that the transfer of these mitochondria from EVs to mtDNA-deficient L929 Rho0 cells rescued mitochondrial function and increased Rho0 cell survival. Furthermore, the incorporation of mitochondria from EVs into inflammatory mononuclear phagocytes restored normal mitochondrial dynamics and cellular metabolism and reduced the expression of pro-inflammatory markers in target cells. When transplanted in an animal model of multiple sclerosis, exogenous NSCs actively transferred mitochondria to mononuclear phagocytes and induced a significant amelioration of clinical deficits. Our data provide the first evidence that NSCs deliver functional mitochondria to target cells via EVs, paving the way for the development of novel (a)cellular approaches aimed at restoring mitochondrial dysfunction not only in multiple sclerosis, but also in degenerative neurological diseases.

Multiplex qPCR discriminates variants of concern to enhance global surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

With the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants that may increase transmissibility and/or cause escape from immune responses, there is an urgent need for the targeted surveillance of circulating lineages. It was found that the B.1.1.7 (also 501Y.V1) variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, could be serendipitously detected by the Thermo Fisher TaqPath COVID-19 PCR assay because a key deletion in these viruses, spike Δ69-70, would cause a "spike gene target failure" (SGTF) result. However, a SGTF result is not definitive for B.1.1.7, and this assay cannot detect other variants of concern (VOC) that lack spike Δ69-70, such as B.1.351 (also 501Y.V2), detected in South Africa, and P.1 (also 501Y.V3), recently detected in Brazil. We identified a deletion in the ORF1a gene (ORF1a Δ3675-3677) in all 3 variants, which has not yet been widely detected in other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Using ORF1a Δ3675-3677 as the primary target and spike Δ69-70 to differentiate, we designed and validated an open-source PCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 VOC. Our assay can be rapidly deployed in laboratories around the world to enhance surveillance for the local emergence and spread of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.

Predicting Exacerbations in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency Using Clinical and Pulmonary Function Tests: Portuguese EARCO Registry.

INTRODUCTION: Exacerbations are common in individuals with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD)-related lung disease. This study intended to identify independent predictive factors for exacerbations in AATD using the Portuguese European Alpha-1 Research Collaboration (EARCO) registry. METHODS: This study includes patients from the Portuguese EARCO registry, a prospective multicenter cohort (NCT04180319). From October 2020 to April 2023, this registry enrolled 137 patients, 14 of whom were excluded for analysis for either missing 12 months of follow-up or baseline pulmonary function. RESULTS: Among the 123 AATD patients, 27 (22.0%) had at least one exacerbation in the last 12 months of follow-up. Patients with Pi*ZZ phenotype were three times more likely than the rest of the population to experience any exacerbation (32.7 vs. 14.1%, p = 0.014; OR 3.0). BODE index was significantly higher in exacerbators than in non-exacerbators (3.9 ± 2.4 vs. 1.3 ± 1.2; p < 0.001), including on multivariate analysis (p = 0.002). Similar results were found for BODEx (multivariate p < 0.001). DLCO was the only functional parameter independently associated with exacerbations (p = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: DLCO, BODE, and BODEx were independent predictors of exacerbations at 12 months in AATD patients. Understanding these risk factors can aid decision-making on AATD-related lung disease management and improve patient outcomes.

Real-time RT-PCR for Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex, Madariaga, and Eastern equine encephalitis viruses: application in human and mosquito public health surveillance in Panama.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), Madariaga virus (MADV), and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus complex (VEEV) are New World alphaviruses transmitted by mosquitoes. They cause febrile and sometimes severe neurological diseases in human and equine hosts. Detecting them during the acute phase is hindered by non-specific symptoms and limited diagnostic tools. We designed and clinically assessed real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays (rRT-PCRs) for VEEV complex, MADV, and EEEV using whole-genome sequences. Validation involved 15 retrospective serum samples from 2015 to 2017 outbreaks, 150 mosquito pools from 2015, and 118 prospective samples from 2021 to 2022 surveillance in Panama. The rRT-PCRs detected VEEV complex RNA in 10 samples (66.7%) from outbreaks, with one having both VEEV complex and MADV RNAs. VEEV complex RNA was found in five suspected dengue cases from disease surveillance. The rRT-PCR assays identified VEEV complex RNA in three Culex (Melanoconion) vomerifer pools, leading to VEEV isolates in two. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the VEEV ID subtype in positive samples. Notably, 11.9% of dengue-like disease patients showed VEEV infections. Together, our rRT-PCR validation in human and mosquito samples suggests that this method can be incorporated into mosquito and human encephalitic alphavirus surveillance programs in endemic regions.

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 after Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant, Brazilian Amazon, 2020-2021.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant has been hypothesized to cause more severe illness than previous variants, especially in children. Successive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serosurveys in the Brazilian Amazon showed that age-specific attack rates and proportions of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections were similar before and after Gamma variant emergence.

Relax, Keep Walking - A Practical Guide to Continuous Phylogeographic Inference with BEAST.

Spatially explicit phylogeographic analyses can be performed with an inference framework that employs relaxed random walks to reconstruct phylogenetic dispersal histories in continuous space. This core model was first implemented 10 years ago and has opened up new opportunities in the field of phylodynamics, allowing researchers to map and analyze the spatial dissemination of rapidly evolving pathogens. We here provide a detailed and step-by-step guide on how to set up, run, and interpret continuous phylogeographic analyses using the programs BEAUti, BEAST, Tracer, and TreeAnnotator.

A Phylodynamic Workflow to Rapidly Gain Insights into the Dispersal History and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented number of genomic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 have been generated and shared with the scientific community. The unparalleled volume of available genetic data presents a unique opportunity to gain real-time insights into the virus transmission during the pandemic, but also a daunting computational hurdle if analyzed with gold-standard phylogeographic approaches. To tackle this practical limitation, we here describe and apply a rapid analytical pipeline to analyze the spatiotemporal dispersal history and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. As a proof of concept, we focus on the Belgian epidemic, which has had one of the highest spatial densities of available SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our pipeline has the potential to be quickly applied to other countries or regions, with key benefits in complementing epidemiological analyses in assessing the impact of intervention measures or their progressive easement.

Genomic Surveillance of Yellow Fever Virus Epizootic in São Paulo, Brazil, 2016 - 2018.

São Paulo, a densely inhabited state in southeast Brazil that contains the fourth most populated city in the world, recently experienced its largest yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in decades. YFV does not normally circulate extensively in São Paulo, so most people were unvaccinated when the outbreak began. Surveillance in non-human primates (NHPs) is important for determining the magnitude and geographic extent of an epizootic, thereby helping to evaluate the risk of YFV spillover to humans. Data from infected NHPs can give more accurate insights into YFV spread than when using data from human cases alone. To contextualise human cases, identify epizootic foci and uncover the rate and direction of YFV spread in São Paulo, we generated and analysed virus genomic data and epizootic case data from NHPs in São Paulo. We report the occurrence of three spatiotemporally distinct phases of the outbreak in São Paulo prior to February 2018. We generated 51 new virus genomes from YFV positive cases identified in 23 different municipalities in São Paulo, mostly sampled from NHPs between October 2016 and January 2018. Although we observe substantial heterogeneity in lineage dispersal velocities between phylogenetic branches, continuous phylogeographic analyses of generated YFV genomes suggest that YFV lineages spread in São Paulo at a mean rate of approximately 1km per day during all phases of the outbreak. Viral lineages from the first epizootic phase in northern São Paulo subsequently dispersed towards the south of the state to cause the second and third epizootic phases there. This alters our understanding of how YFV was introduced into the densely populated south of São Paulo state. Our results shed light on the sylvatic transmission of YFV in highly fragmented forested regions in São Paulo state and highlight the importance of continued surveillance of zoonotic pathogens in sentinel species.

A Novel Ferritin-Core Analog Is a Safe and Effective Alternative to Oral Ferrous Iron for Treating Iron Deficiency during Pregnancy in Mice.

BACKGROUND: Many women enter pregnancy with iron stores that are insufficient to maintain maternal iron balance and support fetal development and consequently, often require iron supplements. However, the side effects associated with many currently available iron supplements can limit compliance. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to test the safety and efficacy of a novel nanoparticulate iron supplement, a dietary ferritin analog termed iron hydroxide adipate tartrate (IHAT), in pregnant mice. METHODS: Female C57BL/6 mice were maintained on either an iron-deficient or a control diet for 2 wk prior to timed mating to develop iron-deficient or iron-sufficient pregnancy models, respectively. Mice from each model were then gavaged daily with 10 mg iron/kg body weight as either IHAT or ferrous sulfate, or with water only, beginning on embryonic day (E) 4.5. Mice were killed on E18.5 and maternal iron and hematological parameters were measured. The expression of genes encoding iron transporters and oxidative stress markers in the duodenum and placenta were determined, along with hepatic expression of the gene encoding the iron regulatory hormone hepcidin and fetal iron. RESULTS: Oral IHAT and ferrous sulfate were equally effective at increasing maternal hemoglobin (20.2% and 16.9%, respectively) and hepatic iron (30.2% and 29.3%, respectively), as well as total fetal iron (99.7% and 83.8%, respectively), in iron-deficient pregnant mice compared with those gavaged with water only, with no change in oxidative stress markers seen with either treatment. However, there was a significant increase in the placental expression of the oxidative stress marker heme oxygenase 1 in iron-replete pregnant mice treated with ferrous sulfate when compared with iron-replete pregnant mice gavaged with IHAT (96.9%, P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: IHAT has proved a safe and effective alternative to oral ferrous sulfate in mice, and it has potential for treating iron deficiency in human pregnancy.

Reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in blood donors in Manaus, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The city of Manaus, north Brazil, was stricken by a second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 despite high seroprevalence estimates, coinciding with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant. Reinfections were postulated as a partial explanation for the second surge. However, accurate calculation of reinfection rates is difficult when stringent criteria as two time-separated RT-PCR tests and/or genome sequencing are required. To estimate the proportion of reinfections caused by Gamma during the second wave in Manaus and the protection conferred by previous infection, we identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody boosting in repeat blood donors as a mean to infer reinfection. METHODS: We tested serial blood samples from unvaccinated repeat blood donors in Manaus for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using two assays that display waning in early convalescence, enabling the detection of reinfection-induced boosting. Donors were required to have three or more donations, being at least one during each epidemic wave. We propose a strict serological definition of reinfection (reactivity boosting following waning like a V-shaped curve in both assays or three spaced boostings), probable (two separate boosting events) and possible (reinfection detected by only one assay) reinfections. The serial samples were used to divide donors into six groups defined based on the inferred sequence of infection and reinfection with non-Gamma and Gamma variants. RESULTS: From 3655 repeat blood donors, 238 met all inclusion criteria, and 223 had enough residual sample volume to perform both serological assays. We found 13.6% (95% CI 7.0-24.5%) of all presumed Gamma infections that were observed in 2021 were reinfections. If we also include cases of probable or possible reinfections, these percentages increase respectively to 22.7% (95% CI 14.3-34.2%) and 39.3% (95% CI 29.5-50.0%). Previous infection conferred a protection against reinfection of 85.3% (95% CI 71.3-92.7%), decreasing to respectively 72.5% (95% CI 54.7-83.6%) and 39.5% (95% CI 14.1-57.8%) if probable and possible reinfections are included. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfection by Gamma is common and may play a significant role in epidemics where Gamma is prevalent, highlighting the continued threat variants of concern pose even to settings previously hit by substantial epidemics.

Association between inflammatory cytokines and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients may experience "cytokine storm" when human immune system produces excessive cytokines/chemokines. However, it remains unclear whether early responses of inflammatory cytokines would lead to high or low titers of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled a cohort of 272 hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Laboratory assessments of serum cytokines (IL-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α), anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM antibodies, and peripheral blood biomarkers were conducted during hospitalization. RESULTS: At hospital admission, 36.4% patients were severely ill, 51.5% patients were ≥ 65 years, and 60.3% patients had comorbidities. Higher levels of IL-2R and IL-6 were observed in older patients (≥65 years). Significant differences of IL-2R (week 2 to week ≥5 from symptom onset), IL-6 (week 1 to week ≥5), IL-8 (week 2 to week ≥5), and IL-10 (week 1 to week 3) were observed between moderately-ill and severely ill patients. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers were significantly higher in severely ill patients than in moderately ill patients, but such difference was not observed for IgM. High titers of early-stage IL-6, IL-8, and TNF-α (≤2 weeks after symptom onset) were positively correlated with high titers of late-stage IgG (≥5 weeks after symptom onset). Deaths were mostly observed in severely ill older patients (45.9%). Survival analyses revealed risk factors of patient age, baseline COVID-19 severity, and baseline IL-6 that affected survival time, especially in severely ill older patients. CONCLUSION: Early responses of elevated cytokines such as IL-6 reflect the active immune responses, leading to high titers of IgG antibodies against COVID-19.

Molecular characterization and sequecing analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in Wuhan, China, is the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its first notification in São Paulo state (SP) on 26th February 2020, more than 22,300,000 cases and 619,000 deaths were reported in Brazil. In early pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 spread locally, however, over time, this virus was disseminated to other regions of the country. Herein, we performed genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 using 20 clinical samples of COVID-19 confirmed cases from 9 cities of Minas Gerais state (MG), in order to evaluate the molecular properties of circulating viral strains in this locality from March to May 2020. Our analyses demonstrated the circulation of B.1 lineage isolates in the investigated locations and nucleotide substitutions were observed into the genomic regions related to important viral structures. Additionally, sequences generated in this study clustered with isolates from SP, suggesting a dissemination route between these two states. Alternatively, monophyletic groups of sequences from MG and other states or country were observed, indicating independent events of virus introduction. These results reinforce the need of genomic surveillance for understand the ongoing spread of emerging viral pathogens.