Response to von Schmalensee et al.

Von Schmalensee et al. present two concerns about our study. While the first stems from a general disagreement about our simulation methodology, the second is a useful observation of a modelling choice we made that affected simulation outcomes, but in ways that do not invalidate our original conclusions.

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change.

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.

The gut microbiome reflects ancestry despite dietary shifts across a hybrid zone.

The microbiome is critical to an organism's phenotype, and its composition is shaped by, and a driver of, eco-evolutionary interactions. We investigated how host ancestry, habitat and diet shape gut microbial composition in a mammalian hybrid zone between Neotoma lepida and N. bryanti that occurs across an ecotone between distinct vegetation communities. We found that habitat is the primary determinant of diet, while host genotype is the primary determinant of the gut microbiome-a finding further supported by intermediate microbiome composition in first-generation hybrids. Despite these distinct primary drivers, microbial richness was correlated with diet richness, and individuals that maintained higher dietary richness had greater gut microbial community stability. Both relationships were stronger in the relative dietary generalist of the two parental species. Our findings show that host ancestry interacts with dietary habits to shape the microbiome, ultimately resulting in the phenotypic plasticity that host-microbial interactions allow.

Evolutionary genomics of gypsy moth populations sampled along a latitudinal gradient.

The European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) was first introduced to Massachusetts in 1869 and within 150 years has spread throughout eastern North America. This large-scale invasion across a heterogeneous landscape allows examination of the genetic signatures of adaptation potentially associated with rapid geographical spread. We tested the hypothesis that spatially divergent natural selection has driven observed changes in three developmental traits that were measured in a common garden for 165 adult moths sampled from six populations across a latitudinal gradient covering the entirety of the range. We generated genotype data for 91,468 single nucleotide polymorphisms based on double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing and used these data to discover genome-wide associations for each trait, as well as to test for signatures of selection on the discovered architectures. Genetic structure across the introduced range of gypsy moth was low in magnitude (FST  = 0.069), with signatures of bottlenecks and spatial expansion apparent in the rare portion of the allele frequency spectrum. Results from applications of Bayesian sparse linear mixed models were consistent with the presumed polygenic architectures of each trait. Further analyses indicated spatially divergent natural selection acting on larval development time and pupal mass, with the linkage disequilibrium component of this test acting as the main driver of observed patterns. The populations most important for these signals were two range-edge populations established less than 30 generations ago. We discuss the importance of rapid polygenic adaptation to the ability of non-native species to invade novel environments.

Geographic Variation in Larval Metabolic Rate Between Northern and Southern Populations of the Invasive Gypsy Moth.

Thermal regimes can diverge considerably across the geographic range of a species, and accordingly, populations can vary in their response to changing environmental conditions. Both local adaptation and acclimatization are important mechanisms for ectotherms to maintain homeostasis as environments become thermally stressful, which organisms often experience at their geographic range limits. The spatial spread of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) after introduction to North America provides an exemplary system for studying population variation in physiological traits given the gradient of climates encompassed by its current invasive range. This study quantifies differences in resting metabolic rate (RMR) across temperature for four populations of gypsy moth, two from the northern and two from southern regions of their introduced range in North America. Gypsy moth larvae were reared at high and low thermal regimes, and then metabolic activity was monitored at four temperatures using stop-flow respirometry to test for an acclimation response. For all populations, there was a significant increase in RMR as respirometry test temperature increased. Contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence for metabolic adaptation to colder environments based on our comparisons between northern and southern populations. We also found no evidence for an acclimation response of RMR to rearing temperature for three of the four pairwise comparisons examined. Understanding the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate in gypsy moth, and understanding the potential for changes in physiology at range extremes, is critical for estimating continued spatial spread of this invasive species both under current and potential future climatic constraints.

Environment predicts the maintenance of reproductive isolation in a mosaic hybrid zone of rubber rabbitbrush.

Widely distributed plants of western North America experience divergent selection across environmental gradients, have complex histories shaped by biogeographic barriers and distributional shifts and often illustrate continuums of reproductive isolation. Rubber rabbitbrush (Ericameria nauseosa) is a foundational shrub species that occurs across diverse environments of western North America. Its remarkable phenotypic diversity is currently ascribed to two subspecies-Ericameria nauseosa nauseosa and Ericameria nauseosa consimilis-and 22 named varieties. To understand how genetic variation is partitioned across subspecies, varieties, and environments, we used high throughput sequencing of reduced representation libraries. We found clear evidence for divergence between the two subspecies, despite largely sympatric distributions. Numerous locations exhibiting admixed ancestry were not geographically localized but were widely distributed across a mosaic hybrid zone. The occurrence of hybrid and subspecific ancestries was strongly predicted by environmental variables as well as the proximity to major ecotones between ecoregions. Although this repeatability illustrates the importance of environmental factors in shaping reproductive isolation, variability in the prevalence of hybridization also indicates these factors likely differ across ecological contexts. There was mixed evidence for the evolutionary cohesiveness of varieties, but several genetically distinct and narrow endemic varieties exhibited admixed subspecific ancestries, hinting at the possibility for transgressive hybridization to contribute to phenotypic novelty and the colonization of new environments in E. nauseosa.

Genomic and common garden approaches yield complementary results for quantifying environmental drivers of local adaptation in rubber rabbitbrush, a foundational Great Basin shrub.

The spatial structure of genomic and phenotypic variation across populations reflects historical and demographic processes as well as evolution via natural selection. Characterizing such variation can provide an important perspective for understanding the evolutionary consequences of changing climate and for guiding ecological restoration. While evidence for local adaptation has been traditionally evaluated using phenotypic data, modern methods for generating and analyzing landscape genomic data can directly quantify local adaptation by associating allelic variation with environmental variation. Here, we analyze both genomic and phenotypic variation of rubber rabbitbrush (Ericameria nauseosa), a foundational shrub species of western North America. To quantify landscape genomic structure and provide perspective on patterns of local adaptation, we generated reduced representation sequencing data for 17 wild populations (222 individuals; 38,615 loci) spanning a range of environmental conditions. Population genetic analyses illustrated pronounced landscape genomic structure jointly shaped by geography and environment. Genetic-environment association (GEA) analyses using both redundancy analysis (RDA) and a machine-learning approach (Gradient Forest) indicated environmental variables (precipitation seasonality, slope, aspect, elevation, and annual precipitation) influenced spatial genomic structure and were correlated with allele frequency shifts indicative of local adaptation at a consistent set of genomic regions. We compared our GEA-based inference of local adaptation with phenotypic data collected by growing seeds from each population in a greenhouse common garden. Population differentiation in seed weight, emergence, and seedling traits was associated with environmental variables (e.g., precipitation seasonality) that were also implicated in GEA analyses, suggesting complementary conclusions about the drivers of local adaptation across different methods and data sources. Our results provide a baseline understanding of spatial genomic structure for E. nauseosa across the western Great Basin and illustrate the utility of GEA analyses for detecting the environmental causes and genetic signatures of local adaptation in a widely distributed plant species of restoration significance.

Thermal Sensitivity of Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) During Larval and Pupal Development.

As global temperatures rise, thermal limits play an increasingly important role in determining the persistence and spread of invasive species. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L. Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in North America provides an ideal system for studying the effect of high temperatures on invasive species performance. Here, we used fluctuating temperature regimes and exposed gypsy moth at specific points in development (first-fourth instar, pupa) to cycles of favorable (22-28°C) or high-temperature treatments (30-36°C, 32-38°C, 34-40°C) for either 2 or 7 d. We measured survival, growth, and prolonged effects of exposure on development time and pupal mass. Survival generally decreased as the experimental temperature treatment and duration of exposure increased for all instars and pupae, with a narrow threshold for lethal effects. In response to increasing temperature and magnified by longer exposure times, growth abruptly declined for third instars and development time increased for pupae. For those surviving the 2-d exposure treatment, development time to pupation increased for all instars, but we did not find consistent effects on final pupal mass. These negative effects of high temperature provide important data on the susceptibility of gypsy moth to heat at different points in development. This work improves our understanding of thermal limits to growth and development in gypsy moth and can aid in determining invasion potential under current and future climates.

Performance of Wild and Laboratory-Reared Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): A Comparison between Foliage and Artificial Diet.

The effects of long-term mass rearing of laboratory insects on ecologically relevant traits is an important consideration when applying research conclusions to wild populations or developing management strategies. Laboratory strains of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), an invasive forest pest in North America, have been continuously reared since 1967. Selection on these strains has enhanced a variety of traits, resulting in faster development, shorter diapause, and greater fecundity. As in many mass-reared insects, laboratory strains of the gypsy moth are also reared exclusively on artificial diets that lack much of the phytochemical and nutritional complexity associated with natural foliage. We tested for differences in growth and development of wild gypsy moth populations from across the invasive range in comparison to laboratory strains when reared on artificial diet and a preferred foliage host species, northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.). Overall, caterpillars reared on foliage had higher survival and faster development rates, with smaller differences among populations. When reared on artificial diet, laboratory strains had the highest performance as expected. The response from the wild populations was mixed, with two populations performing poorly on artificial diet and another performing nearly as well as the laboratory strains. Performance on diet was enhanced when larvae received cubed portions changed regularly, as opposed to filled cups. Understanding these relationships between food source and population performance is important for informing studies that examine population comparisons using wild and laboratory-reared strains.