Evaluating the relationship between conditional cash transfer programme on preterm births: a retrospective longitudinal study using the 100 million Brazilian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Preterm births increase mortality and morbidity during childhood and later life, which is closely associated with poverty and the quality of prenatal care. Therefore, income redistribution and poverty reduction initiatives may be valuable in preventing this outcome. We assessed whether receipt of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme - Bolsa Familia Programme, the largest in the world - reduces the occurrence of preterm births, including their severity categories, and explored how this association differs according to prenatal care and the quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed involving the first live singleton births to mothersenrolled in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort from 2004 to 2015, who had at least one child before cohort enrollment. Only the first birth during the cohort period was included, but born from 2012 onward. A deterministic linkage with the Bolsa Familia Programme payroll dataset and a similarity linkage with the Brazilian Live Birth Information System were performed. The exposed group consisted of newborns to mothers who received Bolsa Familia from conception to delivery. Our outcomes were infants born with a gestational age < 37 weeks: (i) all preterm births, (ii) moderate-to-late (32-36), (iii) severe (28-31), and (iv) extreme (< 28) preterm births compared to at-term newborns. We combined propensity score-based methods and weighted logistic regressions to compare newborns to mothers who did and did not receive Bolsa Familia, controlling for socioeconomic conditions. We also estimated these effects separately, according to the adequacy of prenatal care and the index of quality of Bolsa Familia Programme management. RESULTS: 1,031,053 infants were analyzed; 65.9% of the mothers were beneficiaries. Bolsa Familia Programme was not associated with all sets of preterm births, moderate-to-late, and severe preterm births, but was associated with a reduction in extreme preterm births (weighted OR: 0.69; 95%CI: 0.63-0.76). This reduction can also be observed among mothers receiving adequate prenatal care (weighted OR: 0.66; 95%CI: 0.59-0.74) and living in better Bolsa Familia management municipalities (weighted OR: 0.56; 95%CI: 0.43-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: An income transfer programme for pregnant women of low-socioeconomic status, conditional to attending prenatal care appointments, has been associated with a reduction in extremely preterm births. These programmes could be essential in achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

Ethnoracial disparities in childhood growth trajectories in Brazil: a longitudinal nationwide study of four million children.

BACKGROUND: The literature contains scarce data on inequalities in growth trajectories among children born to mothers of diverse ethnoracial background in the first 5 years of life. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate child growth according to maternal ethnoracial group using a nationwide Brazilian database. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study employed linked data from the CIDACS Birth Cohort and the Brazilian Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN). Children born at term, aged 5 years or younger who presented two or more measurements of length/height (cm) and weight (kg) were followed up between 2008 and 2017. Prevalence of stunting, underweight, wasting, and thinness were estimated. Nonlinear mixed effect models were used to estimate childhood growth trajectories, among different maternal ethnoracial groups (White, Asian descent, Black, Pardo, and Indigenous), using the raw measures of weight (kg) and height (cm) and the length/height-for-age (L/HAZ) and weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ). The analyses were also adjusted for mother's age, educational level, and marital status. RESULTS: A total of 4,090,271 children were included in the study. Children of Indigenous mothers exhibited higher rates of stunting (26.74%) and underweight (5.90%). Wasting and thinness were more prevalent among children of Pardo, Asian, Black, and Indigenous mothers than those of White mothers. Regarding children's weight (kg) and length/height (cm), those of Indigenous, Pardo, Black, and Asian descent mothers were on average shorter and weighted less than White ones. Regarding WAZ and L/HAZ growth trajectories, a sharp decline in average z-scores was evidenced in the first weeks of life, followed by a period of recovery. Over time, z-scores for most of the subgroups analyzed trended below zero. Children of mother in greater social vulnerability showed less favorable growth. CONCLUSION: We observed racial disparities in nutritional status and childhood growth trajectories, with children of Indigenous mothers presenting less favorable outcomes compared to their White counterparts. The strengthening of policies aimed at protecting Indigenous children should be urgently undertaken to address systematic ethnoracial health inequalities.

Mortality in children under 5 years of age with congenital syphilis in Brazil: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Congenital syphilis (CS) is a major and avoidable cause of neonatal death worldwide. In this study, we aimed to estimate excess all-cause mortality in children under 5 years with CS compared to those without CS. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked, routinely collected data from Brazil from January 2011 to December 2017. Cox survival models were adjusted for maternal region of residence, maternal age, education, material status, self-declared race and newborn sex, and year of birth and stratified according to maternal treatment status, non-treponemal titers and presence of signs and symptoms at birth. Over 7 years, a total of 20 057 013 live-born children followed up (through linkage) to 5 years of age, 93 525 were registered with CS, and 2 476 died. The all-cause mortality rate in the CS group was 7·84/1 000 person-years compared with 2·92/1 000 person-years in children without CS, crude hazard ratio (HR) = 2·41 (95% CI 2·31 to 2·50). In the fully adjusted model, the highest under-five mortality risk was observed among children with CS from untreated mothers HR = 2·82 (95% CI 2·63 to 3·02), infants with non-treponemal titer higher than 1:64 HR = 8·87 (95% CI 7·70 to 10·22), and children with signs and symptoms at birth HR = 7·10 (95% CI 6·60 to 7·63). Among children registered with CS, CS was recorded as the underlying cause of death in 33% (495/1 496) of neonatal, 11% (85/770) of postneonatal, and 2·9% (6/210) of children 1 year of age. The main limitations of this study were the use of a secondary database without additional clinical information and the potential misclassification of exposure status. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed an increased mortality risk among children with CS that goes beyond the first year of life. It also reinforces the importance of maternal treatment that infant non-treponemal titers and the presence of signs and symptoms of CS at birth are strongly associated with subsequent mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Observational study.

Cesarean sections and early-term births according to Robson classification: a population-based study with more than 17 million births in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean section (CS) rates are increasing worldwide and are associated with negative maternal and child health outcomes when performed without medical indication. However, there is still limited knowledge about the association between high CS rates and early-term births. This study explored the association between CSs and early-term births according to the Robson classification. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed with routine registration data of live births in Brazil between 2012 and 2019. We used the Robson classification system to compare groups with expected high and low CS rates. We used propensity scores to compare CSs to vaginal deliveries (1:1) and estimated associations with early-term births using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 17,081,685 live births were included. Births via CS had higher odds of early-term birth (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.32-1.32) compared to vaginal deliveries. Births by CS to women in Group 2 (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.49-1.51) and 4 (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.56-1.58) showed the highest odds of early-term birth, compared to vaginal deliveries. Increased odds of an early-term birth were also observed among births by CS to women in Group 3 (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.29-1.31), compared to vaginal deliveries. In addition, live births by CS to women with a previous CS (Group 5 - OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.35-1.37), a single breech pregnancy (Group 6 - OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11-1.21, and Group 7 - OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.23), and multiple pregnancies (Group 8 - OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52) had high odds of an early-term birth, compared to live births by vaginal delivery. CONCLUSIONS: CSs were associated with increased odds of early-term births. The highest odds of early-term birth were observed among those births by CS in Robson Groups 2 and 4.

New statistical process control charts for overdispersed count data based on the Bell distribution.

Poisson distribution is a popular discrete model used to describe counting information, from which traditional control charts involving count data, such as the c and u charts, have been established in the literature. However, several studies recognize the need for alternative control charts that allow for data overdispersion, which can be encountered in many fields, including ecology, healthcare, industry, and others. The Bell distribution, recently proposed by Castellares et al. (2018), is a particular solution of a multiple Poisson process able to accommodate overdispersed data. It can be used as an alternative to the usual Poisson (which, although not nested in the Bell family, is approached for small values of the Bell distribution) Poisson, negative binomial, and COM-Poisson distributions for modeling count data in several areas. In this paper, we consider the Bell distribution to introduce two new exciting, and useful statistical control charts for counting processes, which are capable of monitoring count data with overdispersion. The performance of the so-called Bell charts, namely Bell-c and Bell-u charts, is evaluated by the average run length in numerical simulation. Some artificial and real data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts.

Differences in risk factors for incident and recurrent preterm birth: a population-based linkage of 3.5 million births from the CIDACS birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (PTB) is a syndrome resulting from a complex list of underlying causes and factors, and whether these risk factors differ in the context of prior PTB history is less understood. The aim of this study was to explore whether PTB risk factors in a second pregnancy were different in women with versus without previous PTB. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from the birth cohort of the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS) for the period 2001 to 2015. We used longitudinal transition models with multivariate logistic regression to investigate whether risk factors varied between incident and recurrent PTB. RESULTS: A total of 3,528,050 live births from 1,764,025 multiparous women were analyzed. We identified different risk factors (Pdifference <0.05) between incident and recurrent PTB. The following were associated with an increased chance for PTB incidence, but not recurrent: household overcrowding (OR 1.09), maternal race/ethnicity [(Black/mixed-OR 1.04) and (indigenous-OR 1.34)], young maternal age (14 to 19 years-OR 1.16), and cesarean delivery (OR 1.09). The following were associated with both incident and recurrent PTB, respectively: single marital status (OR 0.85 vs 0.90), reduced number of prenatal visits [(no visit-OR 2.56 vs OR 2.16) and (1 to 3 visits-OR 2.44 vs OR 2.24)], short interbirth interval [(12 to 23 months-OR 1.04 vs OR 1.22) and (<12 months, OR 1.89, 95 vs OR 2.58)], and advanced maternal age (35-49 years-OR 1.42 vs OR 1.45). For most risk factors, the point estimates were higher for incident PTB than recurrent PTB. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for PTB in the second pregnancy differed according to women's first pregnancy PTB status. The findings give the basis for the development of specific prevention strategies for PTB in a subsequent pregnancy.

Conditional cash transfer program and child mortality: A cross-sectional analysis nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Brazil has made great progress in reducing child mortality over the past decades, and a parcel of this achievement has been credited to the Bolsa Família program (BFP). We examined the association between being a BFP beneficiary and child mortality (1-4 years of age), also examining how this association differs by maternal race/skin color, gestational age at birth (term versus preterm), municipality income level, and index of quality of BFP management. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a cross-sectional analysis nested within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, a population-based cohort primarily built from Brazil's Unified Registry for Social Programs (Cadastro Único). We analyzed data from 6,309,366 children under 5 years of age whose families enrolled between 2006 and 2015. Through deterministic linkage with the BFP payroll datasets, and similarity linkage with the Brazilian Mortality Information System, 4,858,253 children were identified as beneficiaries (77%) and 1,451,113 (23%) were not. Our analysis consisted of a combination of kernel matching and weighted logistic regressions. After kernel matching, 5,308,989 (84.1%) children were included in the final weighted logistic analysis, with 4,107,920 (77.4%) of those being beneficiaries and 1,201,069 (22.6%) not, with a total of 14,897 linked deaths. Overall, BFP participation was associated with a reduction in child mortality (weighted odds ratio [OR] = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.88; p < 0.001). This association was stronger for preterm children (weighted OR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.90; p < 0.001), children of Black mothers (weighted OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.97; p < 0.001), children living in municipalities in the lowest income quintile (first quintile of municipal income: weighted OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.82; p < 0.001), and municipalities with better index of BFP management (5th quintile of the Decentralized Management Index: weighted OR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.88; p < 0.001). The main limitation of our methodology is that our propensity score approach does not account for possible unmeasured confounders. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis showed that loss of nameless death records before linkage may have resulted in overestimation of the associations between BFP participation and mortality, with loss of statistical significance in municipalities with greater losses of data and change in the direction of the association in municipalities with no losses. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed a significant association between BFP participation and child mortality in children aged 1-4 years and found that this association was stronger for children living in municipalities in the lowest quintile of wealth, in municipalities with better index of program management, and also in preterm children and children of Black mothers. These findings reinforce the evidence that programs like BFP, already proven effective in poverty reduction, have a great potential to improve child health and survival. Subgroup analysis revealed heterogeneous results, useful for policy improvement and better targeting of BFP.

Shifts towards overweight and double burden of malnutrition among socio-economically vulnerable children: a longitudinal ecological analysis of Brazilian municipalities.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the shifts and factors associated with different scenarios resulting from the prevalence of child stunting and overweight in Brazilian municipalities. DESIGN: This is an ecological study using municipality-level panel data of stunting and overweight prevalence and socio-economic characteristics from 2008 to 2014. The municipalities were classified according to the WHO-UNICEF prevalence thresholds for stunting and overweight and were categorised into four nutritional scenarios: no burden (prevalence of stunting < 20 % and overweight < 10 %), stunting burden (prevalence of stunting ≥ 20 % and overweight < 10 %), overweight burden (prevalence of stunting < 20 % and overweight ≥ 10 %) and double burden (prevalence of stunting ≥ 20 % and overweight ≥ 10 %). SETTING: Totally, 4443 Brazilian municipalities. PARTICIPANTS: Aggregated data of children under 5 years old enrolled in the Brazil's conditional cash transfer programme (Bolsa Família). RESULTS: A mean reduction from 14·2 % to 12·7 % in the prevalence of stunting and an increase from 17·2 % to 18·4 % in the prevalence of overweight were observed. The predominant scenarios were overweight burden and double burden. The odds of both scenarios increased with higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and decreased with higher unemployment rates. Stunting and double burden decreased with higher expected years of schooling, and stunting burden increased with household crowding. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate an advanced nutrition transition stage in Brazil, associated mainly with municipal GDP per capita growth, which has contributed to increasing the burden of overweight alone or coexisting with stunting (double burden) among children in the most socio-economically vulnerable strata of the population.

Time trends and social inequalities in child malnutrition: nationwide estimates from Brazil's food and nutrition surveillance system, 2009-2017.

OBJECTIVE: In Brazil, national estimates of childhood malnutrition have not been updated since 2006. The use of health information systems is an important complementary data source for analysing time trends on health and nutrition. This study aimed to examine temporal trends and socio-demographic inequalities in the prevalence of malnutrition in children attending primary health care services between 2009 and 2017. DESIGN: Time trends study based on data from Brazil's Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. Malnutrition prevalence (stunting, wasting, overweight and double burden) was annually estimated by socio-demographic variables. Prais-Winsten regression models were used to analyse time trends. Annual percent change (APC) and 95 % CI were calculated. SETTING: Primary health care services, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Children under 5 years old. RESULTS: In total, 15,239,753 children were included. An increase in the prevalence of overweight (APC = 3·4 %; P = 0·015) and a decline in the prevalence of wasting (-6·2 %; P = 0·002) were observed. The prevalence of stunting (-3·2 %, P = 0·359) and double burden (-1·4 %, P = 0·630) had discrete and non-significant reductions. Despite the significant reduction in the prevalence of undernutrition among children in the most vulnerable subgroups (black, conditional cash transfer's recipients and residents of poorest and less developed areas), high prevalence of stunting and wasting persist alongside a disproportionate increase in the prevalence of overweight in these groups. CONCLUSIONS: The observed pattern in stunting (high and persistent prevalence) and increase in overweight elucidate setbacks in advances already observed in previous periods and stresses the need for social and political strategies to address multiple forms of malnutrition.

Conditional Cash Transfer Program and Leprosy Incidence: Analysis of 12.9 Million Families From the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort.

Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease predominately affecting poor and marginalized populations. To test the hypothesis that poverty-alleviating policies might be associated with reduced leprosy incidence, we evaluated the association between the Brazilian Bolsa Familia (BFP) conditional cash transfer program and new leprosy case detection using linked records from 12,949,730 families in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2007-2014). After propensity score matching BFP beneficiary to nonbeneficiary families, we used Mantel-Haenszel tests and Poisson regressions to estimate incidence rate ratios for new leprosy case detection and secondary endpoints related to operational classification and leprosy-associated disabilities at diagnosis. Overall, cumulative leprosy incidence was 17.4/100,000 person-years at risk (95% CI: 17.1, 17.7) and markedly higher in "priority" (high-burden) versus "nonpriority" (low-burden) municipalities (22.8/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% confidence interval (CI): 22.2, 23.3, compared with 14.3/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% CI: 14.0, 14.7). After matching, BFP participation was not associated with leprosy incidence overall (incidence rate ratio (IRR)Poisson = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.04) but was associated with lower leprosy incidence when restricted to families living in high-burden municipalities (IRRPoisson = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.96). In high-burden municipalities, the association was particularly pronounced for paucibacillary cases (IRRPoisson = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.98) and cases with leprosy-associated disabilities (IRRPoisson = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.97). These findings provide policy-relevant evidence that social policies might contribute to ongoing leprosy control efforts in high-burden communities.

Factors associated with low birth weight at term: a population-based linkage study of the 100 million Brazilian cohort.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with low birth weight at term (TLBW), a proxy for intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), are not well-elucidated in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with TLBW in impoverished Brazilian women. METHODS: Records in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort database were linked to those in the National System of Information on Live Births (SINASC) to obtain obstetric, maternal, birth and socioeconomic data between 2001 and 2015. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate associations between variables of exposure and TLBW. RESULTS: Of 8,768,930 term live births analyzed, 3.7% presented TLBW. The highest odds of TLBW were associated with female newborns (OR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.47-1.50), whose mothers were black (OR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.18-1.22), had a low educational level (OR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53-1.62), were aged ≥35 years (OR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.43-1.46), had a low number of prenatal care visits (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 2.42-2.54) and were primiparous (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.60-1.64). Lower odds of TLBW were found among infants whose mothers lived in the North, Northeast and Center-West regions of Brazil compared to those in the South. CONCLUSION: Multiple aspects were associated with TLBW, highlighting the need to comprehensively examine the mechanisms underlying these factors, especially in more vulnerable Brazilian populations, in order to contribute to the elaboration of health policies and promote better conditions of life for poor and extremely poor mothers and children.

CIDACS-RL: a novel indexing search and scoring-based record linkage system for huge datasets with high accuracy and scalability.

BACKGROUND: Record linkage is the process of identifying and combining records about the same individual from two or more different datasets. While there are many open source and commercial data linkage tools, the volume and complexity of currently available datasets for linkage pose a huge challenge; hence, designing an efficient linkage tool with reasonable accuracy and scalability is required. METHODS: We developed CIDACS-RL (Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health - Record Linkage), a novel iterative deterministic record linkage algorithm based on a combination of indexing search and scoring algorithms (provided by Apache Lucene). We described how the algorithm works and compared its performance with four open source linkage tools (AtyImo, Febrl, FRIL and RecLink) in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value using gold standard dataset. We also evaluated its accuracy and scalability using a case-study and its scalability and execution time using a simulated cohort in serial (single core) and multi-core (eight core) computation settings. RESULTS: Overall, CIDACS-RL algorithm had a superior performance: positive predictive value (99.93% versus AtyImo 99.30%, RecLink 99.5%, Febrl 98.86%, and FRIL 96.17%) and sensitivity (99.87% versus AtyImo 98.91%, RecLink 73.75%, Febrl 90.58%, and FRIL 74.66%). In the case study, using a ROC curve to choose the most appropriate cut-off value (0.896), the obtained metrics were: sensitivity = 92.5% (95% CI 92.07-92.99), specificity = 93.5% (95% CI 93.08-93.8) and area under the curve (AUC) = 97% (95% CI 96.97-97.35). The multi-core computation was about four times faster (150 seconds) than the serial setting (550 seconds) when using a dataset of 20 million records. CONCLUSION: CIDACS-RL algorithm is an innovative linkage tool for huge datasets, with higher accuracy, improved scalability, and substantially shorter execution time compared to other existing linkage tools. In addition, CIDACS-RL can be deployed on standard computers without the need for high-speed processors and distributed infrastructures.

Origin and dynamics of admixture in Brazilians and its effect on the pattern of deleterious mutations.

While South Americans are underrepresented in human genomic diversity studies, Brazil has been a classical model for population genetics studies on admixture. We present the results of the EPIGEN Brazil Initiative, the most comprehensive up-to-date genomic analysis of any Latin-American population. A population-based genome-wide analysis of 6,487 individuals was performed in the context of worldwide genomic diversity to elucidate how ancestry, kinship, and inbreeding interact in three populations with different histories from the Northeast (African ancestry: 50%), Southeast, and South (both with European ancestry >70%) of Brazil. We showed that ancestry-positive assortative mating permeated Brazilian history. We traced European ancestry in the Southeast/South to a wider European/Middle Eastern region with respect to the Northeast, where ancestry seems restricted to Iberia. By developing an approximate Bayesian computation framework, we infer more recent European immigration to the Southeast/South than to the Northeast. Also, the observed low Native-American ancestry (6-8%) was mostly introduced in different regions of Brazil soon after the European Conquest. We broadened our understanding of the African diaspora, the major destination of which was Brazil, by revealing that Brazilians display two within-Africa ancestry components: one associated with non-Bantu/western Africans (more evident in the Northeast and African Americans) and one associated with Bantu/eastern Africans (more present in the Southeast/South). Furthermore, the whole-genome analysis of 30 individuals (42-fold deep coverage) shows that continental admixture rather than local post-Columbian history is the main and complex determinant of the individual amount of deleterious genotypes.

Effect of dietary consumption as a modifier on the association between FTO gene variants and excess body weight in children from an admixed population in Brazil: the Social Changes, Asthma and Allergy in Latin America (SCAALA) cohort study.

Previous studies have shown associations of variants of the FTO gene with body weight, but none of these have involved Latin American populations with a high level of miscegenation, as is seen in the north-eastern Brazilian population. This study evaluated the association between SNP in the FTO gene and excess weight in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. In addition, the effect of diet as a modifier on this association was also investigated. This cross-sectional study included 1191 participants aged 4-11 years, who were genotyped for 400 variants of the FTO gene. Direct anthropometric measures were made and dietary data were obtained by 24-h food recall. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations of interest. Overall, 11·2 % of the individuals included in the study were overweight/obese. Interactions were identified between the percentage energy intake from proteins and obesity risk linked to the rs62048379 SNP (P interaction=0·01) and also between fat intake (PUFA:SFA ratio) and obesity risk linked to the rs62048379 SNP (P interaction=0·01). The T allele for the variant rs62048379 was positively associated with overweight/obesity in individuals whose percentage energy intake from protein was above the median (OR 2·00; 95 % CI 1·05, 3·82). The rs62048379 SNP was also associated with overweight/obesity in individuals whose PUFA:SFA ratio was below the median (OR 1·63; 95 % CI 1·05, 2·55). The association between FTO gene variants and excess body weight can be modulated by dietary characteristics, particularly by fatty acid distribution and dietary protein intake in children.

Evaluation of record linkage of two large administrative databases in a middle income country: stillbirths and notifications of dengue during pregnancy in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Due to the increasing availability of individual-level information across different electronic datasets, record linkage has become an efficient and important research tool. High quality linkage is essential for producing robust results. The objective of this study was to describe the process of preparing and linking national Brazilian datasets, and to compare the accuracy of different linkage methods for assessing the risk of stillbirth due to dengue in pregnancy. METHODS: We linked mothers and stillbirths in two routinely collected datasets from Brazil for 2009-2010: for dengue in pregnancy, notifications of infectious diseases (SINAN); for stillbirths, mortality (SIM). Since there was no unique identifier, we used probabilistic linkage based on maternal name, age and municipality. We compared two probabilistic approaches, each with two thresholds: 1) a bespoke linkage algorithm; 2) a standard linkage software widely used in Brazil (ReclinkIII), and used manual review to identify further links. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were estimated using a subset of gold-standard data created through manual review. We examined the characteristics of false-matches and missed-matches to identify any sources of bias. RESULTS: From records of 678,999 dengue cases and 62,373 stillbirths, the gold-standard linkage identified 191 cases. The bespoke linkage algorithm with a conservative threshold produced 131 links, with sensitivity = 64.4% (68 missed-matches) and PPV = 92.5% (8 false-matches). Manual review of uncertain links identified an additional 37 links, increasing sensitivity to 83.7%. The bespoke algorithm with a relaxed threshold identified 132 true matches (sensitivity = 69.1%), but introduced 61 false-matches (PPV = 68.4%). ReclinkIII produced lower sensitivity and PPV than the bespoke linkage algorithm. Linkage error was not associated with any recorded study variables. CONCLUSION: Despite a lack of unique identifiers for linking mothers and stillbirths, we demonstrate a high standard of linkage of large routine databases from a middle income country. Probabilistic linkage and manual review were essential for accurately identifying cases for a case-control study, but this approach may not be feasible for larger databases or for linkage of more common outcomes.

Factors associated with nutritional outcomes in the mother-child dyad: a population-based cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate factors associated with double burden of nutritional outcomes in the mother-child dyad at the household level (child stunting and/or maternal overweight). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey. Nutritional outcomes were: mother with normal weight and child with normal height; overweight mother and child with normal height; mother with normal weight and short-stature child; and overweight mother and child with short stature (double burden). The child was classified as short when height-for-age Z-score was <-2 and the mother as overweight when BMI was ≥25·00 kg/m2. Socio-economic status, environment, social vulnerability, maternal characteristics and the child's food intake were the exposure factors. The hierarchical approach for multinomial logistic regression modelling was used to assess the associations. SETTING: National Demographic and Health Survey of Children and Women conducted in Brazil, 2006-2007. SUBJECTS: Mother-child dyads (n 3676). RESULTS: After adjustments, lower maternal educational level (OR=3·53; 95 % CI 1·33, 9·33) and inadequate household (non-masonry house; OR=2·54; 95 % CI 1·39, 4·66) were associated with the double burden of malnutrition. Mother's short stature (OR=3·41; 95 % CI 1·76, 6·61), child's vegetable intake on less than or equal to 4 d/week (OR=2·21; 95 % CI 1·03, 4·75) and inadequate household (non-masonry house; OR=2·29; 95 % CI 1·36, 3·87) were associated with child's short stature. The lack of breast-feeding (OR=2·00; 95 % CI 1·07, 3·72) was associated with maternal overweight. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings contribute to establishing strategies promoting health and healthy diets, by considering the growth deficit and overweight/obesity concomitantly.

The association between intimate partner domestic violence and the food security status of poor families in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between physical intimate partner violence and household food security within households with schoolchildren. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Salvador, Bahia, north-eastern Brazil. SUBJECTS: The study was conducted in 1019 households with students. Violence between couples was evaluated using the Portuguese version of the revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2), previously adapted and validated for use in Brazil. The Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale (BFIS) was used to identify food insecurity. We also obtained socio-economic information for each participant. We used multivariate Poisson regression to assess the associations of interest. RESULTS: According to the results of the BFIS, 62·5% of the households were found to experience food insecurity, including 19·5% moderate food insecurity and 6·5% severe food insecurity. The prevalence of minor physical violence was 9·6% (95% CI 7·8, 11·4%) and of severe physical violence was 4·7% (95% CI 3·4, 6·0%) among the couples. In the final multivariate model, it was found that couples reporting minor (prevalence ratio=1·23; 95% CI 1·12, 1·35) and severe (prevalence ratio=1·16; 95% CI 1·00, 1·34) physical violence were more likely to be experiencing household food insecurity, compared with those not reporting physical violence. CONCLUSIONS: Physical intimate partner violence was associated with food insecurity of households. The present study brings new data to the subject of the role of violence in the context of food insecurity.

A genome-wide association study of asthma symptoms in Latin American children.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a chronic disease of the airways and, despite the advances in the knowledge of associated genetic regions in recent years, their mechanisms have yet to be explored. Several genome-wide association studies have been carried out in recent years, but none of these have involved Latin American populations with a high level of miscegenation, as is seen in the Brazilian population. METHODS: 1246 children were recruited from a longitudinal cohort study in Salvador, Brazil. Asthma symptoms were identified in accordance with an International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire. Following quality control, 1,877,526 autosomal SNPs were tested for association with childhood asthma symptoms by logistic regression using an additive genetic model. We complemented the analysis with an estimate of the phenotypic variance explained by common genetic variants. Replications were investigated in independent Mexican and US Latino samples. RESULTS: Two chromosomal regions reached genome-wide significance level for childhood asthma symptoms: the 14q11 region flanking the DAD1 and OXA1L genes (rs1999071, MAF 0.32, OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.45-2.18, p-value 2.83 × 10(-8)) and 15q22 region flanking the FOXB1 gene (rs10519031, MAF 0.04, OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.02-4.49, p-value 6.68 × 10(-8) and rs8029377, MAF 0.03, OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.76-3.53, p-value 2.45 × 10(-7)). eQTL analysis suggests that rs1999071 regulates the expression of OXA1L gene. However, the original findings were not replicated in the Mexican or US Latino samples. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the 14q11 and 15q22 regions may be associated with asthma symptoms in childhood.

Explained variation for recurrent event data.

Although there are many suggested measures of explained variation for single-event survival data, there has been little attention to explained variation for recurrent event data. We describe an existing rank-based measure and we investigate a new statistic based on observed and expected event count processes. Both methods can be used for all models. Adjustments for missing data are proposed and demonstrated through simulation to be effective. We compare the population values of the two statistics and illustrate their use in comparing an array of non-nested models for data on recurrent episodes of infant diarrhoea.

Penalised logistic regression and dynamic prediction for discrete-time recurrent event data.

We consider methods for the analysis of discrete-time recurrent event data, when interest is mainly in prediction. The Aalen additive model provides an extremely simple and effective method for the determination of covariate effects for this type of data, especially in the presence of time-varying effects and time varying covariates, including dynamic summaries of prior event history. The method is weakened for predictive purposes by the presence of negative estimates. The obvious alternative of a standard logistic regression analysis at each time point can have problems of stability when event frequency is low and maximum likelihood estimation is used. The Firth penalised likelihood approach is stable but in removing bias in regression coefficients it introduces bias into predicted event probabilities. We propose an alterative modified penalised likelihood, intermediate between Firth and no penalty, as a pragmatic compromise between stability and bias. Illustration on two data sets is provided.