Scale of population synchrony confirms macroecological estimates of minimum viable range size.

Global ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis, necessitating robust approaches to quantifying species extinction risk. The lower limit of the macroecological relationship between species range and body size has long been hypothesized as an estimate of the relationship between the minimum viable range size (MVRS) needed for species persistence and the organismal traits that affect space and resource requirements. Here, we perform the first explicit test of this assumption by confronting the MVRS predicted by the range-body size relationship with an independent estimate based on the scale of synchrony in abundance among spatially separated populations of riverine fish. We provide clear evidence of a positive relationship between the scale of synchrony and species body size, and strong support for the MVRS set by the lower limit of the range-body size macroecological relationship. This MVRS may help prioritize first evaluations for unassessed or data-deficient taxa in global conservation assessments.

Historical citizen science to understand and predict climate-driven trout decline.

Historical species records offer an excellent opportunity to test the predictive ability of range forecasts under climate change, but researchers often consider that historical records are scarce and unreliable, besides the datasets collected by renowned naturalists. Here, we demonstrate the relevance of biodiversity records developed through citizen-science initiatives generated outside the natural sciences academia. We used a Spanish geographical dictionary from the mid-nineteenth century to compile over 10 000 freshwater fish records, including almost 4 000 brown trout (Salmo trutta) citations, and constructed a historical presence-absence dataset covering over 2 000 10 × 10 km cells, which is comparable to present-day data. There has been a clear reduction in trout range in the past 150 years, coinciding with a generalized warming. We show that current trout distribution can be accurately predicted based on historical records and past and present values of three air temperature variables. The models indicate a consistent decline of average suitability of around 25% between 1850s and 2000s, which is expected to surpass 40% by the 2050s. We stress the largely unexplored potential of historical species records from non-academic sources to open new pathways for long-term global change science.

Filling gaps in a large reserve network to address freshwater conservation needs.

Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are among the most threatened at global scale, but efforts for their conservation have been mostly peripheral to terrestrial conservation. For example, Natura 2000, the world's largest network of protected areas, fails to cover adequately the distribution of rare and endangered aquatic species, and lacks of appropriate spatial design to make conservation for freshwater biodiversity effective. Here, we develop a framework to identify a complementary set of priority areas and enhance the conservation opportunities of Natura 2000 for freshwater biodiversity, using the Iberian Peninsula as a case study. We use a systematic planning approach to identify a minimum set of additional areas that would help i) adequately represent all freshwater fish, amphibians and aquatic reptiles at three different target levels, ii) account for key ecological processes derived from riverscape connectivity, and iii) minimize the impact of threats, both within protected areas and propagated from upstream unprotected areas. Addressing all these goals would need an increase in area between 7 and 46%, depending on the conservation target used and strength of connectivity required. These new priority areas correspond to subcatchments inhabited by endangered and range restricted species, as well as additional subcatchments required to improve connectivity among existing protected areas and to increase protection against upstream threats. Our study should help guide future revisions of the design of Natura 2000, while providing a framework to address deficiencies in reserve networks for adequately protecting freshwater biodiversity elsewhere.

Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: Predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change.

Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwestern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the dependence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the potential effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including environmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to severely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that including the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.

Identifying freshwater priority areas for cross-taxa interactions.

Information about biotic interactions (e.g. competition, predation, parasitism, diseases, mutualism, allelopathy) is fundamental to better understand species distribution and abundance, ecosystem functioning, and ultimately guide conservation efforts. However, conservation planning often overlooks these important interactions. Here, we aim to demonstrate a new framework to include biotic interactions into Marxan. For that, we use freshwater mussels and fish interaction (as mussels rely on fishes to complete their life cycle) in the Douro River basin (Iberian Peninsula) as a case study. While doing that, we also test the importance of including biotic interactions into conservation planning exercises, by running spatial prioritisation analysis considering either: 1) only the target species (freshwater mussels); 2) freshwater mussels and their obligatory hosts (freshwater fishes); 3) freshwater mussels, fishes and their interactions. With this framework we found that biotic interactions tend to be underrepresented when the data on both freshwater mussels and fishes is not simultaneously included in the spatial prioritisation. Overall, the priority areas selected across all scenarios are mostly located in the western part of the Douro River basin, where most freshwater mussels and fishes still occur. Given the low overlap of priority areas identified here and the current Natura 2000 network, our approach may be useful for establishing (or enlarging) protected areas, especially in light of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Also, this work may provide guidance for future habitat restoration and management of main threats to freshwater biodiversity.

An accessible optimisation method for barrier removal planning in stream networks.

Barriers associated to human infrastructure are a widespread impact in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, disrupting connectivity along river networks and key processes. Restoration of connectivity has risen in the last decade, with thousands of dams, weirs and culverts removed. Spatial optimisation methods can help inform decision on what barriers to remove to maximise gain in connectivity under limited budgets. However, current optimisation approaches rely on programming skills that are not easily accessible to stakeholders, which restrict the use of these methods. We demonstrate how Marxan, a publicly available tool, can be used to prioritise the allocation of barrier removal projects. We mapped the distribution of >900 barriers in the Tagus River (Iberian Peninsula) and 29 freshwater fish species with different movement abilities and needs. We assessed the passability of each barrier by all species and relative removal cost. We then identified priority barriers for removal to increase connectivity of populations of all species simultaneously. We tested two alternative scenarios: i) locking out barriers assesses as non-removable for their high strategic value or removal cost and ii) making all barriers available for removal. We found that connectivity recovery targets could be achieved by removing a small proportion of barriers, and avoiding large infrastructure. However, for some species, large recovery targets could only be achieved by removing some of these large infrastructures at high increases in cost. We also found some spatial differences in the recovery value of particular barriers for improving upstream and downstream connectivity. Our study demonstrates how to use a robust optimisation approach in an accessible tool, to address the complexity of prioritisation exercises commonly faced by stakeholders when deciding where to invest in barrier removal projects. This will improve decision-making for river connectivity restoration through a transparent, reproducible, and better-informed approach than traditional opportunistic or ranking-based approaches.

The future of biotic indices in the ecogenomic era: Integrating (e)DNA metabarcoding in biological assessment of aquatic ecosystems.

The bioassessment of aquatic ecosystems is currently based on various biotic indices that use the occurrence and/or abundance of selected taxonomic groups to define ecological status. These conventional indices have some limitations, often related to difficulties in morphological identification of bioindicator taxa. Recent development of DNA barcoding and metabarcoding could potentially alleviate some of these limitations, by using DNA sequences instead of morphology to identify organisms and to characterize a given ecosystem. In this paper, we review the structure of conventional biotic indices, and we present the results of pilot metabarcoding studies using environmental DNA to infer biotic indices. We discuss the main advantages and pitfalls of metabarcoding approaches to assess parameters such as richness, abundance, taxonomic composition and species ecological values, to be used for calculation of biotic indices. We present some future developments to fully exploit the potential of metabarcoding data and improve the accuracy and precision of their analysis. We also propose some recommendations for the future integration of DNA metabarcoding to routine biomonitoring programs.

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times.

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy-detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time-to-detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time-to-first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval-censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time-to-detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval-censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P-values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval-censored time-to-detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy-detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.