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The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.
Assuntos
Distribuição Animal , Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Gafanhotos/fisiologia , África , Animais , Ásia , Clima , Gafanhotos/classificação , Dinâmica Populacional , RiscoRESUMO
Under environmental stress, previously hidden additive genetic variation can be unmasked and exposed to selection. The amount of hidden variation is expected to be higher for life history traits, which strongly correlate to individual fitness, than for morphological traits, in which fitness effects are more ambiguous. However, no consensual pattern has been recovered yet, and this idea is still debated in the literature. Here, we hypothesize that the classical categorization of traits (i.e., life history and morphology) may fail to capture their proximity to fitness. In the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, a model organism for the study of insect polyphenism, we quantified changes in additive genetic variation elicited by lifetime thermal stress for ten traits, in which evolutionary significance is known. Irrespective of their category, traits under strong stabilizing selection showed genetic invariance with environmental stress, while traits more loosely associated with fitness showed a marked increase in additive genetic variation in the stressful environment. Furthermore, traits involved in adaptive phenotypic plasticity (growth compensation) showed either no change in additive genetic variance or a change of moderate magnitude across thermal environments. We interpret this mitigated response of plastic traits in the context of integrated evolution to adjust the entire phenotype in heterogeneous environments (i.e., adaptiveness of initial plasticity, compromise of phenotypic compensation with stress, and shared developmental pathway). Altogether, our results indicate, in agreement with theoretical expectations, that environmental stress can increase available additive genetic variance in some desert locust traits, but those closely linked to fitness are largely unaffected. Our study also highlights the importance of assessing the proximity to fitness of a trait on a case-by-case basis and in an ecologically relevant context, as well as considering the processes of canalization and plasticity, involved in the control of phenotypic variation.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Environmental parental effects can have important ecological and evolutionary consequences, yet little is known about genetic variation among populations in the plastic responses of offspring phenotypes to parental environmental conditions. This type of variation may lead to rapid phenotypic divergence among populations and facilitate speciation. With respect to density-dependent phenotypic plasticity, locust species (Orthoptera: family Acrididae), exhibit spectacular developmental and behavioural shifts in response to population density, called phase change. Given the significance of phase change in locust outbreaks and control, its triggering processes have been widely investigated. Whereas crowding within the lifetime of both offspring and parents has emerged as a primary causal factor of phase change, less is known about intraspecific genetic variation in the expression of phase change, and in particular in response to the parental environment. We conducted a laboratory experiment that explicitly controlled for the environmental effects of parental rearing density. This design enabled us to compare the parental effects on offspring expression of phase-related traits between two naturally-occurring, genetically distinct populations of Locusta migratoria that differed in their historical patterns of high population density outbreak events. RESULTS: We found that locusts from a historically outbreaking population of L. migratoria expressed parentally-inherited density-dependent phase changes to a greater degree than those from a historically non-outbreaking population. CONCLUSION: Because locusts from both populations were raised in a common environment during our experiment, a genetically-based process must be responsible for the observed variation in the propensity to express phase change. This result emphasizes the importance of genetic factors in the expression of phase traits and calls for further investigations on density-dependent parental effects in locust phase change. More population samples with different outbreak histories need to be analyzed to demonstrate that differences in propensity to gregarise evolve because of different outbreak histories.
Assuntos
Variação Genética , Locusta migratoria/genética , Animais , Comportamento Animal , Tamanho Corporal , Análise Discriminante , Locusta migratoria/anatomia & histologia , Locusta migratoria/fisiologia , Isolamento SocialRESUMO
West Nile virus (WNV) has a history of irregular but recurrent epizootics in countries of Mediterranean and of Central and Eastern Europe. We have investigated the temporal enzootic activity of WNV in free-ranging birds over a 3-year period in an area with sporadic occurrences of WNV outbreaks in Southern France. We conducted an intensive serologic survey on several wild bird populations (>4000 serum samples collected from 3300 birds) selected as potential indicators of the WNV circulation. WNV antibodies were detected by seroneutralization and/or plaque reduction neutralization in house sparrows, black-billed magpies, and scops owls, but these species appeared to be insufficient indicators of WNV circulation. Overall seroprevalence was low (<1%), including in birds that had been potentially exposed to the virus during recent outbreaks. However, the detection of a seroconversion in one bird, as well as the detection of seropositive birds in all years of our monitoring, including juveniles, indicate a constant annual circulation of WNV at a low level, including in years without any detectable emergence of WN fever in horses or humans.