Ongoing Decline in Continuity With GPs in English General Practices: A Longitudinal Study Across the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: Relationship continuity of care has declined across English primary health care, with cross-sectional and longitudinal variations between general practices predicted by population and service factors. We aimed to describe cross-sectional and longitudinal variations across the COVID-19 pandemic and determine whether practice factors predicted the variations. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal, ecological study of English general practices during 2018-2022 with continuity data, excluding practices with fewer than 750 patients or National Health Service (NHS) payments exceeding £500 per patient. Variables were derived from published data. The continuity measure was the product of weighted responses to 2 General Practice Patient Survey questions. In a multilevel mixed-effects model, the fixed effects were 11 variables' interactions with time: baseline continuity, NHS region, deprivation, location, percentage White ethnicity, list size, general practitioner and nurse numbers, contract type, NHS payments per patient, and percentage of patients seen on the same day as booking. The random effects were practices. RESULTS: Main analyses were based on 6,010 practices (out of 7,190 active practices). During 2018-2022, mean continuity in these practices declined (from 29.3% to 19.0%) and the coefficient of variation across practices increased (from 48.1% to 63.6%). Both slopes were steepest between 2021 and 2022. Practices having more general practitioners and higher percentages of patients seen the same day had slower declines. Practices having higher baseline continuity, located in certain non-London regions, and having higher percentages of White patients had faster declines. The remaining variables were not predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Variables potentially associated with greater appointment availability predicted slower declines in continuity, with worsening declines and relative variability immediately after the COVID-19 lockdown, possibly reflecting surges in demand. To achieve better levels of continuity for those seeking it, practices can increase appointment availability within appointment systems that prioritize continuity.Annals Early Access article.

Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining. AIM: To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015-2019. METHOD: Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non-correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity). RESULTS: Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females. CONCLUSION: The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.