Temperature and non-communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system.

Climate change induced rising temperatures will pose a detrimental threat to decent health in the coming decades. Especially at risk are individuals with chronic diseases, since heat can exacerbate a variety of health conditions. In this article, I examine the heat-morbidity relationship in the context of Indonesia, focusing on chronic, non-communicable diseases, namely diabetes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Using a novel dataset from the Indonesian national health insurance scheme Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional/Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial (BPJS) and linking it with meteorological data on the daily-district level, I estimate the causal effect of high temperatures on the daily number of primary health care visits. The results show that on a hot day all-cause visits and visits with a diagnosis of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases increase by 8%, 25% and 14%, respectively. These increases are permanent and not offset by visit displacement or 'harvesting'. Visits related to respiratory diseases seem not to be affected by high temperatures. I use several climate change scenarios to predict the increase in visits and costs by the end of the century, which all forecast a substantial financial burden for the health care system. These results might have relevance for other middle-income countries with similar climatic conditions.

Effectiveness of community-based diabetes and hypertension prevention and management programmes in Indonesia and Viet Nam: a quasi-experimental study.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have surpassed infectious diseases as the leading global cause of death, with the Southeast Asian region experiencing a significant rise in NCD prevalence over the past decades. Despite the escalating burden, screening for NCDs remains at very low levels, resulting in undetected cases, premature mortality and high public healthcare costs. We investigate whether community-based NCD prevention and management programmes are an effective solution. METHODS: In Indonesia, we compare participants in the community-based NCD screening and management programme Pos Pembinaan Terpadu-Penyakit Tidak Menular with matched non-participants with respect to their uptake of screening activities, health-related behaviour and knowledge and metabolic risk factors. We use statistical matching to redress a possible selection bias (n=1669). In Viet Nam, we compare members of Intergenerational Self-Help Clubs, which were offered similar NCD health services, with members of other community groups, where such services were not offered. We can rely on two waves of data and use a double-difference approach to redress a possible selection bias and to measure the impacts of participation (n=1710). We discuss strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches in Indonesia and Viet Nam. RESULTS: In Indonesia, participants have significantly higher uptake of screening for hypertension and diabetes (+13% from a control mean of 88% (95% CI 9% to 17%); +93% from a control mean of 48% (95% CI 79% to 108%)). In both countries, participants show a higher knowledge about risk factors, symptoms and complications of NCDs (Indonesia: +0.29 SD (0.13-0.45), Viet Nam: +0.17 SD (0.03-0.30)). Yet, the improved knowledge is only partly reflected in improved health behaviour (Viet Nam: fruit consumption +0.33 SD (0.15-0.51), vegetable consumption +0.27 SD (0.04-0.50)), body mass index (BMI) (Viet Nam: BMI -0.07 SD (-0.13 to -0.00)) or metabolic risk factors (Indonesia: systolic blood pressure: -0.13 SD (-0.26 to -0.00)). CONCLUSION: Community-based NCD programmes are well suited to increase screening and to transmit health knowledge. Due to their extensive outreach within the community, they can serve as a valuable complement to the screening services provided at the primary healthcare level. Yet, limited coverage, insufficient resources and a high staff turnover remain a problem. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05239572.

How to dampen the surge of non-communicable diseases in Southeast Asia: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases, have overtaken infectious diseases as the number one cause of death worldwide. The rise of these diseases is especially grave in Southeast Asia, where existing research however falls short on offering guidance on how policy can best prevent and control NCDs in the region. Additionally, low- and middle-income countries in Southeast Asia cannot directly incorporate lessons drawn from interventions in richer countries, since health system capacities and human and financial resources are thoroughly different. Preventive interventions, thus, need to correspond to local capacities and require contextual solutions. In this article, we provide a systematic review of a wide scope of NCD interventions conducted in Southeast Asia to inform about existing intervention designs and to derive sound evidence of their effectiveness. Our literature search results in 51 studies from five Southeast Asian countries from which we can extract 204 estimates. We sort the studies into six intervention categories and analyse them with respect to 23 different health and behavioural outcomes. While we find positive and significant average effects across all six types of interventions, we also document evidence of substantial publication bias. Using a meta-regression approach in which we correct for the publication bias, we instead fail to confirm positive average effects for some interventions. Especially dietary and physical activity interventions fail to achieve improvements in analysed health outcomes, while programs focusing on smoking cessation, on the take-up of preventive screening activities or educating patients on how to cope with NCDs achieve sizeable effects. We also present evidence that the size of the effect differs with the participants' characteristics as well as with design features of the intervention. For local policymakers, the results provide important knowledge on how to address the increasing NCD burden in the coming years.