A climate vulnerability assessment of the fish community in the Western Baltic Sea.

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.

Tracing growth patterns in cod (Gadus morhua L.) using bioenergetic modelling.

Understanding individual growth in commercially exploited fish populations is key to successful stock assessment and informed ecosystem-based fisheries management. Traditionally, growth rates in marine fish are estimated using otolith age-readings in combination with age-length relationships from field samples, or tag-recapture field experiments. However, for some species, otolith-based approaches have been proven unreliable and tag-recapture experiments suffer from high working effort and costs as well as low recapture rates. An important alternative approach for estimating fish growth is represented by bioenergetic modelling which in addition to pure growth estimation can provide valuable insights into the processes leading to temporal growth changes resulting from environmental and related behavioural changes. We here developed an individual-based bioenergetic model for Western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), traditionally a commercially important fish species that however collapsed recently and likely suffers from climate change effects. Western Baltic cod is an ideal case study for bioenergetic modelling because of recently gained in-situ process knowledge on spatial distribution and feeding behaviour based on highly resolved data on stomachs and fish distribution. Additionally, physiological processes such as gastric evacuation, consumption, net-conversion efficiency and metabolic rates have been well studied for cod in laboratory experiments. Our model reliably reproduced seasonal growth patterns observed in the field. Importantly, our bioenergetic modelling approach implementing depth-use patterns and food intake allowed us to explain the potentially detrimental effect summer heat periods have on the growth of Western Baltic cod that likely will increasingly occur in the future. Hence, our model simulations highlighted a potential mechanism on how warming due to climate change affects the growth of a key species that may apply for similar environments elsewhere.