More than $1 billion needed annually to secure Africa's protected areas with lions.

Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in conserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, yet their effectiveness is undermined by funding shortfalls. Using lions (Panthera leo) as a proxy for PA health, we assessed available funding relative to budget requirements for PAs in Africa's savannahs. We compiled a dataset of 2015 funding for 282 state-owned PAs with lions. We applied three methods to estimate the minimum funding required for effective conservation of lions, and calculated deficits. We estimated minimum required funding as $978/km2 per year based on the cost of effectively managing lions in nine reserves by the African Parks Network; $1,271/km2 based on modeled costs of managing lions at ≥50% carrying capacity across diverse conditions in 115 PAs; and $2,030/km2 based on Packer et al.'s [Packer et al. (2013) Ecol Lett 16:635-641] cost of managing lions in 22 unfenced PAs. PAs with lions require a total of $1.2 to $2.4 billion annually, or ∼$1,000 to 2,000/km2, yet received only $381 million annually, or a median of $200/km2 Ninety-six percent of range countries had funding deficits in at least one PA, with 88 to 94% of PAs with lions funded insufficiently. In funding-deficit PAs, available funding satisfied just 10 to 20% of PA requirements on average, and deficits total $0.9 to $2.1 billion. African governments and the international community need to increase the funding available for management by three to six times if PAs are to effectively conserve lions and other species and provide vital ecological and economic benefits to neighboring communities.

The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

Estimating wildlife disease dynamics in complex systems using an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework.

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife are of increasing concern to managers and conservation policy makers, but are often difficult to study and predict due to the complexity of host-disease systems and a paucity of empirical data. We demonstrate the use of an Approximate Bayesian Computation statistical framework to reconstruct the disease dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in Kruger National Park's lion population, despite limited empirical data on the disease's effects in lions. The modeling results suggest that, while a large proportion of the lion population will become infected with bovine tuberculosis, lions are a spillover host and long disease latency is common. In the absence of future aggravating factors, bovine tuberculosis is projected to cause a lion population decline of ~3% over the next 50 years, with the population stabilizing at this new equilibrium. The Approximate Bayesian Computation framework is a new tool for wildlife managers. It allows emerging infectious diseases to be modeled in complex systems by incorporating disparate knowledge about host demographics, behavior, and heterogeneous disease transmission, while allowing inference of unknown system parameters.

Evaluation of microsatellite markers for populations studies and forensic identification of African lions (Panthera leo).

The South African lion (Panthera leo) population is highly fragmented. One-third of its wild lions occur in small (<1000 km(2)) reserves. These lions were reintroduced from other areas of the species' historical range. Management practices on these reserves have not prioritized genetic provenance or heterozygosity. These trends potentially constrain the conservation value of these lions. To ensure the best management and long-term survival of these subpopulations as a viable collective population, the provenance and current genetic diversity must be described. Concurrently, poaching of lions to supply a growing market for lion bones in Asia may become a serious conservation challenge in the future. Having a standardized, validated method for matching confiscated lion parts with carcasses will be a key tool in investigating these crimes. We evaluated 28 microsatellites in the African lion using samples from 18 small reserves and 1 captive facility in South Africa, two conservancies in Zimbabwe, and Kruger National and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Parks to determine the loci most suited for population management and forensic genetic applications. Twelve microsatellite loci with a match probability of 1.1×10(-5) between siblings were identified for forensics. A further 10 could be added for population genetics studies.

The evolutionary dynamics of the lion Panthera leo revealed by host and viral population genomics.

The lion Panthera leo is one of the world's most charismatic carnivores and is one of Africa's key predators. Here, we used a large dataset from 357 lions comprehending 1.13 megabases of sequence data and genotypes from 22 microsatellite loci to characterize its recent evolutionary history. Patterns of molecular genetic variation in multiple maternal (mtDNA), paternal (Y-chromosome), and biparental nuclear (nDNA) genetic markers were compared with patterns of sequence and subtype variation of the lion feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV(Ple)), a lentivirus analogous to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In spite of the ability of lions to disperse long distances, patterns of lion genetic diversity suggest substantial population subdivision (mtDNA Phi(ST) = 0.92; nDNA F(ST) = 0.18), and reduced gene flow, which, along with large differences in sero-prevalence of six distinct FIV(Ple) subtypes among lion populations, refute the hypothesis that African lions consist of a single panmictic population. Our results suggest that extant lion populations derive from several Pleistocene refugia in East and Southern Africa ( approximately 324,000-169,000 years ago), which expanded during the Late Pleistocene ( approximately 100,000 years ago) into Central and North Africa and into Asia. During the Pleistocene/Holocene transition ( approximately 14,000-7,000 years), another expansion occurred from southern refugia northwards towards East Africa, causing population interbreeding. In particular, lion and FIV(Ple) variation affirms that the large, well-studied lion population occupying the greater Serengeti Ecosystem is derived from three distinct populations that admixed recently.

Ecological drivers of female lion (Panthera leo) reproduction in the Kruger National Park.

The role of social cues in the reproduction of social mammals, particularly carnivores, has been thoroughly studied and documented in literature. However, environmental cues such as resources of water, food, and shelter have been identified to a lesser extent. Pregnant lions (Panthera leo) are notoriously secretive during the final stages of pregnancy and postpartum. Behavioral indicators depicted by movement patterns obtained by remote detection of collared female lions in the Kruger National Park were necessary for the monitoring of birth timing. Over the study period, eight plus a potential three parturition incidences of collared females were recorded. Of the variables measured (step length, range size, duration, prey biomass, and rainfall), range size during the month of parturition was the most indicative movement pattern of a successful birth. By backdating the potential birth month of the litters, date of conception was calculated and our results revealed a correlation between the birthing peaks of preferred prey during the month of conception. Birth timing in conjunction with remote sensing and ecological factors were thus identified behaviors associated with denning.

Simplified large African carnivore density estimators from track indices.

BACKGROUND: The range, population size and trend of large carnivores are important parameters to assess their status globally and to plan conservation strategies. One can use linear models to assess population size and trends of large carnivores from track-based surveys on suitable substrates. The conventional approach of a linear model with intercept may not intercept at zero, but may fit the data better than linear model through the origin. We assess whether a linear regression through the origin is more appropriate than a linear regression with intercept to model large African carnivore densities and track indices. METHODS: We did simple linear regression with intercept analysis and simple linear regression through the origin and used the confidence interval for ß in the linear model y = αx + ß, Standard Error of Estimate, Mean Squares Residual and Akaike Information Criteria to evaluate the models. RESULTS: The Lion on Clay and Low Density on Sand models with intercept were not significant (P > 0.05). The other four models with intercept and the six models thorough origin were all significant (P < 0.05). The models using linear regression with intercept all included zero in the confidence interval for ß and the null hypothesis that ß = 0 could not be rejected. All models showed that the linear model through the origin provided a better fit than the linear model with intercept, as indicated by the Standard Error of Estimate and Mean Square Residuals. Akaike Information Criteria showed that linear models through the origin were better and that none of the linear models with intercept had substantial support. DISCUSSION: Our results showed that linear regression through the origin is justified over the more typical linear regression with intercept for all models we tested. A general model can be used to estimate large carnivore densities from track densities across species and study areas. The formula observed track density = 3.26 × carnivore density can be used to estimate densities of large African carnivores using track counts on sandy substrates in areas where carnivore densities are 0.27 carnivores/100 km2 or higher. To improve the current models, we need independent data to validate the models and data to test for non-linear relationship between track indices and true density at low densities.

Fenced and Fragmented: Conservation Value of Managed Metapopulations.

Population fragmentation is threatening biodiversity worldwide. Species that once roamed vast areas are increasingly being conserved in small, isolated areas. Modern management approaches must adapt to ensure the continued survival and conservation value of these populations. In South Africa, a managed metapopulation approach has been adopted for several large carnivore species, all protected in isolated, relatively small, reserves that are fenced. As far as possible these approaches are based on natural metapopulation structures. In this network, over the past 25 years, African lions (Panthera leo) were reintroduced into 44 fenced reserves with little attention given to maintaining genetic diversity. To examine the situation, we investigated the current genetic provenance and diversity of these lions. We found that overall genetic diversity was similar to that in a large national park, and included a mixture of four different southern African evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). This mixing of ESUs, while not ideal, provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of mixing ESUs over the long term. We propose a strategic managed metapopulation plan to ensure the maintenance of genetic diversity and improve the long-term conservation value of these lions. This managed metapopulation approach could be applied to other species under similar ecological constraints around the globe.

Social structure of lions (Panthera leo) is affected by management in Pendjari Biosphere Reserve, Benin.

Lion populations have undergone a severe decline in West Africa. As baseline for conservation management, we assessed the group structure of lions in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve in Benin. This reserve, composed of one National Park and two Hunting Zones, is part of the WAP transboundary complex of protected areas. Overall mean group size was 2.6±1.7 individuals (n = 296), it was significantly higher in the National Park (2.7±1.7, n = 168) than in the Hunting Zones (2.2±1.5, n = 128). Overall adult sex ratio was even, but significantly biased towards females (0.67) in the National Park and towards males (1.67) in the Hunting Zones. Our results suggest that the Pendjari lion population is affected by perturbations, such as trophy hunting.

Insights into the management of large carnivores for profitable wildlife-based land uses in African savannas.

Large African predators, especially lions (Panthera leo) and leopards (Panthera pardus), are financially valuable for ecotourism and trophy hunting operations on land also utilized for the production of other wildlife species for the same purpose. Predation of ungulates used for trophy hunting can create conflict with landholders and trade off thus exists between the value of lions and leopards and their impact on ungulate populations. Therefore productionist and conservation trade-offs are complexly graded and difficult to resolve. We investigated this with a risk-benefit analysis on a large private wildlife production area in Zimbabwe. Our model showed that lions result in substantial financial costs through predation on wild ungulates that may not be offset by profits from hunting them, whereas the returns from trophy hunting of leopards are projected to exceed the costs due to leopard predation. In the absence of additional income derived from photo-tourism the number of lions may need to be managed to minimize their impact. Lions drive important ecological processes, but there is a need to balance ecological and financial imperatives on wildlife ranches, community wildlife lands and other categories of multiple use land used for wildlife production. This will ensure the competitiveness of wildlife based land uses relative to alternatives. Our findings may thus be limited to conservancies, community land-use areas and commercial game ranches, which are expansive in Africa, and should not necessarily applied to areas where biodiversity conservation is the primary objective, even if hunting is allowed there.

The trophy hunting of African lions: scale, current management practices and factors undermining sustainability.

The trophy hunting of lions Panthera leo is contentious due to uncertainty concerning conservation impacts and because of highly polarised opinions about the practice. African lions are hunted across at least ~558,000 km(2), which comprises 27-32% of the lion range in countries where trophy hunting of the species is permitted. Consequently, trophy hunting has potential to impart significant positive or negative impacts on lions. Several studies have demonstrated that excessive trophy harvests have driven lion population declines. There have been several attempts by protectionist non-governmental organisations to reduce or preclude trophy hunting via restrictions on the import and export of lion trophies. We document the management of lion hunting in Africa and highlight challenges which need addressing to achieve sustainability. Problems include: unscientific bases for quota setting; excessive quotas and off-takes in some countries; fixed quotas which encourage over-harvest; and lack of restrictions on the age of lions that can be hunted. Key interventions needed to make lion hunting more sustainable, include implementation of: enforced age restrictions; improved trophy monitoring; adaptive management of quotas and a minimum length of lion hunts of at least 21 days. Some range states have made important steps towards implementing such improved management and off-takes have fallen steeply in recent years. For example age restrictions have been introduced in Tanzania and in Niassa in Mozambique, and are being considered for Benin and Zimbabwe, several states have reduced quotas, and Zimbabwe is implementing trophy monitoring. However, further reforms are needed to ensure sustainability and reduce conservation problems associated with the practice while allowing retention of associated financial incentives for conservation.

Parallels between playbacks and Pleistocene tar seeps suggest sociality in an extinct sabretooth cat, Smilodon.

Inferences concerning the lives of extinct animals are difficult to obtain from the fossil record. Here we present a novel approach to the study of extinct carnivores, using a comparison between fossil records (n=3324) found in Late Pleistocene tar seeps at Rancho La Brea in North America and counts (n=4491) from playback experiments used to estimate carnivore abundance in Africa. Playbacks and tar seep deposits represent competitive, potentially dangerous encounters where multiple predators are lured by dying herbivores. Consequently, in both records predatory mammals and birds far outnumber herbivores. In playbacks, two large social species, lions, Panthera leo, and spotted hyenas, Crocuta crocuta, actively moved towards the sounds of distressed prey and made up 84 per cent of individuals attending. Small social species (jackals) were next most common and solitary species of all sizes were rare. In the La Brea record, two species dominated, the presumably social dire wolf Canis dirus (51%), and the sabretooth cat Smilodon fatalis (33%). As in the playbacks, a smaller social canid, the coyote Canis latrans, was third most common (8%), and known solitary species were rare (<4%). The predominance of Smilodon and other striking similarities between playbacks and the fossil record support the conclusion that Smilodon was social.

Home range utilisation and territorial behaviour of lions (Panthera leo) on Karongwe Game Reserve, South Africa.

Interventionist conservation management of territorial large carnivores has increased in recent years, especially in South Africa. Understanding of spatial ecology is an important component of predator conservation and management. Spatial patterns are influenced by many, often interacting, factors making elucidation of key drivers difficult. We had the opportunity to study a simplified system, a single pride of lions (Panthera leo) after reintroduction onto the 85 km(2) Karongwe Game Reserve, from 1999-2005, using radio-telemetry. In 2002 one male was removed from the paired coalition which had been present for the first three years. A second pride and male were in a fenced reserve adjacent of them to the east. This made it possible to separate social and resource factors in both a coalition and single male scenario, and the driving factors these seem to have on spatial ecology. Male ranging behaviour was not affected by coalition size, being driven more by resource rather than social factors. The females responded to the lions on the adjacent reserve by avoiding the area closest to them, therefore females may be more driven by social factors. Home range size and the resource response to water are important factors to consider when reintroducing lions to a small reserve, and it is hoped that these findings lead to other similar studies which will contribute to sound decisions regarding the management of lions on small reserves.