Targeting trachoma control through risk mapping: the example of Southern Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1-9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. CONCLUSION: In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention.

Estimation of population coverage for antibiotic distribution for trachoma control: a comparison of methods.

Trachoma control includes mass drug administration (MDA) with antibiotics targeting coverage of at least 80%. Coverage is traditionally calculated by dividing doses distributed by population estimate, which is unreliable. We compared a verifiable coverage assessment method against self-reported participation and the traditional calculation, and examined factors associated with MDA participation in Akobo County, Southern Sudan. During MDA, recipients were marked with indelible ink and followed-up using a two-stage household survey: 25 clusters from three districts, and 10 households per cluster. All household members were enumerated; asked about self-reported participation and observed for indelible marks. Household heads were interviewed to assess factors associated with MDA. Overall 11 419 treatments were given and 1358 residents from 247 households surveyed. By traditional methods MDA coverage was 20.9% (95% CI: 20.6-21.3); 61.5% (95 % CI: 49.4-73.6) by self-reporting; and 37.5% (95% CI: 25.1%-49.9%) from observed ink marks. Controlling for other factors, presence of a health worker (OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.5-3.6); head of household knowledge of azithromycin (OR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.5-3.1); and head of household advance notice of MDA (OR 34.9, 18.1-66.3) were independent predictors of participation. Cluster randomised surveys can estimate MDA coverage better than the traditional method and implementation of indelible marking merits investigation.

Risk factors for trachomatous trichiasis in children: cross-sectional household surveys in Southern Sudan.

We have previously documented blinding trachoma to be a serious public health problem in Southern Sudan, with an unusually high prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) among children. We aimed to investigate risk factors for TT in children in Southern Sudan. Cross-sectional surveys were undertaken in 11 districts between 2001 and 2006, and eligible participants were examined for trachoma signs. Risk factors were assessed through interviews and observations. Using logistic regression, associations between TT in children and potential risk factors were investigated. In total, 11155 children aged 1-14 years from 3950 households were included in the analysis. Overall prevalence of TT was 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-2.1). Factors independently associated with increased odds of TT in children aged 1-14 years were: increasing age (P(trend)<0.001); female gender (odds ratio=1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.1); increasing proportion of children in the household with trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI) (P(trend)=0.002); and increasing number of adults in the household with TT (P(trend)<0.001). Our study revealed risk factors for TT in children consistent with those previously reported for TT in adults. While the associations of TT in children with TI in siblings and TT in adult relatives merit further investigation, there is an urgent need for trachoma prevention interventions and trichiasis surgery services that are tailored to cater for young children in Southern Sudan.

The burden of trachoma in Ayod County of Southern Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Blindness due to trachoma is avoidable through Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial hygiene and Environmental improvements (SAFE). Recent surveys have shown trachoma to be a serious cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. We conducted this survey in Ayod County of Jonglei State to estimate the need for intervention activities to eliminate blinding trachoma. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: A cross-sectional two-stage cluster random survey was conducted in November 2006. All residents of selected households were clinically assessed for trachoma using the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified grading scheme. A total of 2,335 people from 392 households were examined, of whom 1,107 were over 14 years of age. Prevalence of signs of active trachoma in children 1-9 years of age was: trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) = 80.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 73.9-86.3); trachomatous inflammation intense (TI) = 60.7% (95% CI, 54.6-66.8); and TF and/or TI (active trachoma) = 88.3% (95% CI, 83.7-92.9). Prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) was 14.6% (95% CI, 10.9-18.3) in adults over 14 years of age; 2.9% (95% CI, 0.4-5.3) in children 1-14 years of age; and 8.4% (95% CI, 5.5-11.3) overall. The prevalence of corneal opacity in persons over 14 years of age with TT was 6.4% (95% CI, 4.5-8.3). No statistically significant difference was observed in the prevalence of trachoma signs between genders. Trachoma affected almost all households surveyed: 384/392 (98.0%) had at least one person with active trachoma and 130 (33.2%) had at least one person with trichiasis. CONCLUSIONS: Trachoma is an unnecessary public health problem in Ayod. The high prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis confirms the severe burden of blinding trachoma found in other post-conflict areas of Southern Sudan. Based on WHO recommended thresholds, all aspects of the SAFE strategy are indicated to eliminate blinding trachoma in Ayod.