Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability.

Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate model simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent these regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality. Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern North America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy. Our reconstruction shows that a large majority (31 out of 44) of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

Role of Mixed-Species Stands in Attenuating the Vulnerability of Boreal Forests to Climate Change and Insect Epidemics.

We investigated whether stand species mixture can attenuate the vulnerability of eastern Canada's boreal forests to climate change and insect epidemics. For this, we focused on two dominant boreal species, black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in stands dominated by black spruce or trembling aspen ("pure stands"), and mixed stands (M) composed of both species within a 36 km2 study area in the Nord-du-Québec region. For each species in each stand composition type, we tested climate-growth relations and assessed the impacts on growth by recorded insect epidemics of a black spruce defoliator, the spruce budworm (SBW) [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)], and a trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar (FTC; Malacosoma disstria Hübn.). We implemented linear models in a Bayesian framework to explain baseline and long-term trends in tree growth for each species according to stand composition type and to differentiate the influences of climate and insect epidemics on tree growth. Overall, we found climate vulnerability was lower for black spruce in mixed stands than in pure stands, while trembling aspen was less sensitive to climate than spruce, and aspen did not present differences in responses based on stand mixture. We did not find any reduction of vulnerability for mixed stands to insect epidemics in the host species, but the non-host species in mixed stands could respond positively to epidemics affecting the host species, thus contributing to stabilize ecosystem-scale growth over time. Our findings partially support boreal forest management strategies including stand species mixture to foster forests that are resilient to climate change and insect epidemics.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Author Correction: Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the Data Availability section, which incorrectly read 'All data will be freely available via https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html .' The correct version states ' http://www.ams.ethz.ch/research/published-data.html ' in place of ' https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html '. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE.

Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770-780 and 990-1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.