Adjunctive Dexamethasone for Tuberculous Meningitis in HIV-Positive Adults.

BACKGROUND: Adjunctive glucocorticoids are widely used to treat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculous meningitis despite limited data supporting their safety and efficacy. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial involving HIV-positive adults (≥18 years of age) with tuberculous meningitis in Vietnam and Indonesia. Participants were randomly assigned to receive a 6-to-8-week tapering course of either dexamethasone or placebo in addition to 12 months of antituberculosis chemotherapy. The primary end point was death from any cause during the 12 months after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 520 adults were randomly assigned to receive either dexamethasone (263 participants) or placebo (257 participants). The median age was 36 years; 255 of 520 participants (49.0%) had never received antiretroviral therapy, and 251 of 484 participants (51.9%) with available data had a baseline CD4 count of 50 cells per cubic millimeter or less. Six participants withdrew from the trial, and five were lost to follow-up. During the 12 months of follow-up, death occurred in 116 of 263 participants (44.1%) in the dexamethasone group and in 126 of 257 participants (49.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.10; P = 0.22). Prespecified analyses did not reveal a subgroup that clearly benefited from dexamethasone. The incidence of secondary end-point events, including cases of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome during the first 6 months, was similar in the two trial groups. The numbers of participants with at least one serious adverse event were similar in the dexamethasone group (192 of 263 participants [73.0%]) and the placebo group (194 of 257 participants [75.5%]) (P = 0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV-positive adults with tuberculous meningitis, adjunctive dexamethasone, as compared with placebo, did not confer a benefit with respect to survival or any secondary end point. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust; ACT HIV ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03092817.).

Two biases in incubation time estimation related to exposure.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution is hampered by incomplete data about infection. We discuss two biases that may result from incorrect handling of such data. Notified cases may recall recent exposures more precisely (differential recall). This creates bias if the analysis is restricted to observations with well-defined exposures, as longer incubation times are more likely to be excluded. Another bias occurred in the initial estimates based on data concerning travellers from Wuhan. Only individuals who developed symptoms after their departure were included, leading to under-representation of cases with shorter incubation times (left truncation). This issue was not addressed in the analyses performed in the literature. METHODS: We performed simulations and provide a literature review to investigate the amount of bias in estimated percentiles of the SARS-CoV-2 incubation time distribution. RESULTS: Depending on the rate of differential recall, restricting the analysis to a subset of narrow exposure windows resulted in underestimation in the median and even more in the 95th percentile. Failing to account for left truncation led to an overestimation of multiple days in both the median and the 95th percentile. CONCLUSION: We examined two overlooked sources of bias concerning exposure information that the researcher engaged in incubation time estimation needs to be aware of.

A novel diagnostic model for tuberculous meningitis using Bayesian latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is hampered by the lack of a gold standard. Current microbiological tests lack sensitivity and clinical diagnostic approaches are subjective. We therefore built a diagnostic model that can be used before microbiological test results are known. METHODS: We included 659 individuals aged [Formula: see text] years with suspected brain infections from a prospective observational study conducted in Vietnam. We fitted a logistic regression diagnostic model for TBM status, with unknown values estimated via a latent class model on three mycobacterial tests: Ziehl-Neelsen smear, Mycobacterial culture, and GeneXpert. We additionally re-evaluated mycobacterial test performance, estimated individual mycobacillary burden, and quantified the reduction in TBM risk after confirmatory tests were negative. We also fitted a simplified model and developed a scoring table for early screening. All models were compared and validated internally. RESULTS: Participants with HIV, miliary TB, long symptom duration, and high cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lymphocyte count were more likely to have TBM. HIV and higher CSF protein were associated with higher mycobacillary burden. In the simplified model, HIV infection, clinical symptoms with long duration, and clinical or radiological evidence of extra-neural TB were associated with TBM At the cutpoints based on Youden's Index, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing TBM for our full and simplified models were 86.0% and 79.0%, and 88.0% and 75.0% respectively. CONCLUSION: Our diagnostic model shows reliable performance and can be developed as a decision assistant for clinicians to detect patients at high risk of TBM. Diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis is hampered by the lack of gold standard. We developed a diagnostic model using latent class analysis, combining confirmatory test results and risk factors. Models were accurate, well-calibrated, and can support both clinical practice and research.

Incidence and Clearance of Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection in 16 164 Individuals, According to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Sex, and Male Sexuality: An International Pooled Analysis of 34 Longitudinal Studies.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the natural history of anal high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is key for designing anal cancer prevention programs but has not been systematically characterized. METHODS: We reanalyzed data from 34 studies including 16 164 individuals in 6 risk groups defined by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, sex, and male sexuality: men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with HIV (MSMWH), HIV-negative MSM, women with HIV (WWH), HIV-negative women, men who have sex with women (MSW) with HIV (MSWWH), and HIV-negative MSW. We used Markov models to estimate incidence and clearance of 13 hrHPV types and their determinants. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 had the highest incidence-clearance ratio of the hrHPV types. MSMWH had the highest hrHPV incidence (eg, 15.5% newly HPV-16 infected within 2 years), followed by HIV-negative MSM (7.5%), WWH (6.6%), HIV-negative women (2.9%), MSWWH (1.7%), and HIV-negative MSW (0.7%). Determinants of HPV-16 incidence included HIV status and number of sexual partners for MSM, women, and MSW, and anal sex behavior for MSM only. HPV-16 clearance was lower for people with HIV (PWH) and lower for prevalent than incident infection. Among MSM, increasing age was associated with lower clearance of prevalent, but not incident, HPV-16 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This robust and unifying analysis of anal hrHPV natural history is essential to designing and predicting the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening programs on anal cancer prevention, particularly in MSM and PWH. Importantly, it demonstrates the higher carcinogenic potential of longstanding anal prevalent hrHPV infection than more recent incident infection.

Towards robust and accurate estimates of the incubation time distribution, with focus on upper tail probabilities and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Quarantine length for individuals who have been at risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been based on estimates of the incubation time distribution. The time of infection is often not known exactly, yielding data with an interval censored time origin. We give a detailed account of the data structure, likelihood formulation and assumptions usually made in the literature: (i) the risk of infection is assumed constant on the exposure window and (ii) the incubation time follows a specific parametric distribution. The impact of these assumptions remains unclear, especially for the right tail of the distribution which informs quarantine policy. We quantified bias in percentiles by means of simulation studies that mimic reality as close as possible. If assumption (i) is not correct, then median and upper percentiles are affected similarly, whereas misspecification of the parametric approach (ii) mainly affects upper percentiles. The latter may yield considerable bias. We suggest a semiparametric method that provides more robust estimates without the need of a parametric choice. Additionally, we used a simulation study to evaluate a method that has been suggested if all infection times are left censored. It assumes that the width of the interval from infection to latest possible exposure follows a uniform distribution. This assumption gave biased results in the exponential phase of an outbreak. Our application to open source data suggests that focus should be on the level of information in the observations, as expressed by the width of exposure windows, rather than the number of observations.

Effectiveness of Continuous Endotracheal Cuff Pressure Control for the Prevention of Ventilator-Associated Respiratory Infections: An Open-Label Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: An endotracheal tube cuff pressure between 20 and 30 cmH2O is recommended to prevent ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI). We aimed to evaluate whether continuous cuff pressure control (CPC) was associated with reduced VARI incidence compared with intermittent CPC. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial in intensive care unit (ICU) patients within 24 hours of intubation in Vietnam. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either continuous CPC using an automated electronic device or intermittent CPC using a manually hand-held manometer. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of VARI, evaluated by an independent reviewer blinded to the CPC allocation. RESULTS: We randomized 600 patients; 597 received the intervention or control and were included in the intention to treat analysis. Compared with intermittent CPC, continuous CPC did not reduce the proportion of patients with at least one episode of VARI (74/296 [25%] vs 69/301 [23%]; odds ratio [OR] 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] .77-1.67]. There were no significant differences between continuous and intermittent CPC concerning the proportion of microbiologically confirmed VARI (OR 1.40; 95% CI .94-2.10), the proportion of intubated days without antimicrobials (relative proportion [RP] 0.99; 95% CI .87-1.12), rate of ICU discharge (cause-specific hazard ratio [HR] 0.95; 95% CI .78-1.16), cost of ICU stay (difference in transformed mean [DTM] 0.02; 95% CI -.05 to .08], cost of ICU antimicrobials (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.25 to .28), cost of hospital stay (DTM 0.02; 95% CI -.04 to .08), and ICU mortality risk (OR 0.96; 95% CI .67-1.38). CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining CPC through an automated electronic device did not reduce VARI incidence. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02966392.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases.

BACKGROUND: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory. METHODS: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment. RESULTS: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

A novel method for measuring phenotypic colistin resistance in Escherichia coli populations from chicken flocks.

Colistin is extensively used in animal production in many low- and middle-income countries. There is a need to develop methodologies to benchmark and monitor changes in resistance among mixed commensal bacterial populations in farms. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a broth microdilution method based on culturing a pooled Escherichia coli suspension (30-50 organisms) obtained from each sample. To confirm the biological basis and sensitivity of the method, we cultured 16 combinations of one colistin-susceptible and one mcr-1 encoded colistin-resistant E. coli in the presence of 2mg/L colistin. Optical density (OD600nm) readings over time were used to generate a growth curve, and these values were adjusted to the values obtained in the absence of colistin (adjusted Area Under the Curve, AUCadj). The median limit of detection was 1 resistant in 104 susceptible colonies [1st - 3rd quartile, 102:1 -105:1]. We applied this method to 108 pooled faecal samples from 36 chicken flocks from the Mekong Delta (Vietnam), and determined the correlation between this method and the prevalence of colistin resistance in individual colonies harvested from field samples, determined by the Minimum Inhibitory Concentration. The overall prevalence of colistin resistance at sample and isolate level (estimated from the AUCadj) was 38.9% [95%CI, 29.8-48.8%] and 19.4% (SD± 26.3%), respectively. Increased colistin resistance was associated with recent (2 weeks) use of colistin (OR=3.67) and other, non-colistin antimicrobials (OR=1.84). Our method is a sensitive and affordable approach to monitor changes in colistin resistance in E. coli populations from faecal samples over time.IMPORTANCE Colistin (polymyxin E) is an antimicrobial with poor solubility in agar-based media, and therefore broth microdilution is the only available method for phenotypic resistance. However, estimating colistin resistance in mixed Escherichia coli populations is laborious since it requires individual colony isolation, identification and susceptibility testing. We developed a growth-based microdilution method suitable for pooled faecal samples. We validated the method by comparing it with individual MIC of 909 E. coli isolates; we then tested 108 pooled faecal samples from 36 healthy chicken flocks collected over their production cycle. A higher level of resistance was seen in flocks recently treated with colistin in water, although the observed generated resistance was short-lived. Our method is affordable, and may potentially be integrated into surveillance systems aiming at estimating the prevalence of resistance at colony level in flocks/herds. Furthermore, it may also be adapted to other complex biological systems, such as farms and abattoirs.

Using the geometric average hazard ratio in sample size calculation for time-to-event data with composite endpoints.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculation is a key point in the design of a randomized controlled trial. With time-to-event outcomes, it's often based on the logrank test. We provide a sample size calculation method for a composite endpoint (CE) based on the geometric average hazard ratio (gAHR) in case the proportional hazards assumption can be assumed to hold for the components, but not for the CE. METHODS: The required number of events, sample size and power formulae are based on the non-centrality parameter of the logrank test under the alternative hypothesis which is a function of the gAHR. We use the web platform, CompARE, for the sample size computations. A simulation study evaluates the empirical power of the logrank test for the CE based on the sample size in terms of the gAHR. We consider different values of the component hazard ratios, the probabilities of observing the events in the control group and the degrees of association between the components. We illustrate the sample size computations using two published randomized controlled trials. Their primary CEs are, respectively, progression-free survival (time to progression of disease or death) and the composite of bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or Staphylococcus aureus related death by 12 weeks. RESULTS: For a target power of 0.80, the simulation study provided mean (± SE) empirical powers equal to 0.799 (±0.004) and 0.798 (±0.004) in the exponential and non-exponential settings, respectively. The power was attained in more than 95% of the simulated scenarios and was always above 0.78, regardless of compliance with the proportional-hazard assumption. CONCLUSIONS: The geometric average hazard ratio as an effect measure for a composite endpoint has a meaningful interpretation in the case of non-proportional hazards. Furthermore it is the natural effect measure when using the logrank test to compare the hazard rates of two groups and should be used instead of the standard hazard ratio.

Biphasic pattern in the effect of severe measles infection; the difference between additive and multiplicative scale.

BACKGROUND: Infection with measles virus (MeV) causes immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infectious diseases. Only few studies reported a duration of immunosuppression, with varying results. We investigated the effect of immunosuppression on the incidence of hospital admissions for infectious diseases in Vietnamese children. METHODS: We used retrospective data (2005 to 2015; N = 4419) from the two pediatric hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We compared the age-specific incidence of hospital admission for infectious diseases before and after hospitalization for measles. We fitted a Poisson regression model that included gender, current age, and time since measles to obtain a multiplicative effect measure. Estimates were transformed to the additive scale. RESULTS: We observed two phases in the incidence of hospital admission after measles. The first phase started with a fourfold increased rate of admissions during the first month after measles, dropping to a level quite comparable to children of the same age before measles. In the second phase, lasting until at least 6 years after measles, the admission rate decreased further, with values up to 20 times lower than in children of the same age before measles. However, on the additive scale the effect size in the second phase was much smaller than in the first phase. CONCLUSION: The first phase highlights the public health benefits of measles vaccination by preventing measles and immune amnesia. The beneficial second phase is interesting, but its strength strongly depends on the scale. It suggests a complicated interaction between MeV infection and the host immunity.

Dynamic Prediction of Death in Patients With Tuberculous Meningitis Using Time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale and Plasma Sodium Measurements.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment predictors of death from tuberculous meningitis (TBM) are well established, but whether outcome can be predicted more accurately after the start of treatment by updated clinical variables is unknown. Hence, we developed and validated models that dynamically predict mortality using time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and plasma sodium measurements, together with patient baseline characteristics. METHODS: We included 1048 adults from 4 TBM studies conducted in southern Vietnam from 2004 to 2016. We used a landmarking approach to predict death within 120 days after treatment initiation using time-updated data during the first 30 days of treatment. Separate models were built for patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate performance of the models at days 10, 20, and 30 of treatment to predict mortality by 60, 90, and 120 days. Our internal validation was corrected for overoptimism using bootstrap. We provide a web-based application that computes mortality risk within 120 days. RESULTS: Higher GCS indicated better prognosis in all patients. In HIV-infected patients, higher plasma sodium was uniformly associated with good prognosis, whereas in HIV-uninfected patients the association was heterogeneous over time. The bias-corrected AUC of the models ranged from 0.82 to 0.92 and 0.81 to 0.85 in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively. The models outperformed the previously published baseline models. CONCLUSIONS: Time-updated GCS and plasma sodium measurements improved predictions based solely on information obtained at diagnosis. Our models may be used in practice to define those with poor prognosis during treatment.

The Natural History and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the natural history of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study at a quarantine center for coronavirus disease 2019 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We enrolled quarantined people with reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, collecting clinical data, travel and contact history, and saliva at enrollment and daily nasopharyngeal/throat swabs (NTSs) for RT-PCR testing. We compared the natural history and transmission potential of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals. RESULTS: Between 10 March and 4 April 2020, 14 000 quarantined people were tested for SARS-CoV-2; 49 were positive. Of these, 30 participated in the study: 13 (43%) never had symptoms and 17 (57%) were symptomatic. Seventeen (57%) participants imported cases. Compared with symptomatic individuals, asymptomatic people were less likely to have detectable SARS-CoV-2 in NTS collected at enrollment (8/13 [62%] vs 17/17 [100%]; P = .02). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 20 of 27 (74%) available saliva samples (7 of 11 [64%] in the asymptomatic group and 13 of 16 [81%] in the symptomatic group; P = .56). Analysis of RT-PCR positivity probability showed that asymptomatic participants had faster viral clearance than symptomatic participants (P < .001 for difference over the first 19 days). This difference was most pronounced during the first week of follow-up. Two of the asymptomatic individuals appeared to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to 4 contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is common and can be detected by analysis of saliva or NTSs. The NTS viral loads fall faster in asymptomatic individuals, but these individuals appear able to transmit the virus to others.

Do Intracerebral Cytokine Responses Explain the Harmful Effects of Dexamethasone in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-associated Cryptococcal Meningitis?

BACKGROUND: The CryptoDex trial showed that dexamethasone caused poorer clinical outcomes and slowed fungal clearance in human immunodeficiency virus-associated cryptococcal meningitis. We analyzed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cytokine concentrations from participants over the first week of treatment to investigate mechanisms of harm and test 2 hypotheses: (1) dexamethasone reduced proinflammatory cytokine concentrations, leading to poorer outcomes and (2) leukotriene A4 hydrolase (LTA4H) genotype influenced the clinical impact of dexamethasone, as observed in tuberculous meningitis. METHODS: We included participants from Vietnam, Thailand, and Uganda. Using the Luminex system, we measured CSF concentrations of the following: interferon γ, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, monocyte chemoattractant 1, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α, and interleukin 6, 12p70, 8, 4, 10, and 17. We determined the LTA4H genotype based on the promoter region single-nucleotide polymorphism rs17525495. We assessed the impact of dexamethasone on cytokine concentration dynamics and the association between cytokine concentration dynamics and fungal clearance with mixed effect models. We measured the influence of LTA4H genotype on outcomes with Cox regression models. RESULTS: Dexamethasone increased the rate TNF-α concentration's decline in (-0.13 log2pg/mL/d (95% confidence interval, -.22 to -.06 log2pg/mL/d; P = .03), which was associated with slower fungal clearance (correlation, -0.62; 95% confidence interval, -.83 to -.26). LTA4H genotype had no statistically significant impact on outcome or response to dexamethasone therapy. Better clinical outcomes were associated with higher baseline concentrations of interferon γ. CONCLUSIONS: Dexamethasone may slow fungal clearance and worsen outcomes by increasing TNF-α concentration's rate of decline.

Risk of Parkinson's disease dementia related to level I MDS PD-MCI.

BACKGROUND: The International Parkinson and Movement Disorders Society criteria for mild cognitive impairment in PD need validation. The objectives of this present study were to evaluate prognostic validity of level I (abbreviated) International Parkinson and Movement Disorders Society mild cognitive impairment in PD criteria for development of PD dementia and compared them with level II (comprehensive) criteria. METHODS: We analyzed data from 8 international studies (1045 patients) from our consortium that included baseline data on demographics, motor signs, depression, detailed neuropsychological testing, and longitudinal follow-up for conversion to Parkinson's disease dementia. Survival analysis evaluated their contribution to the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia. RESULTS: Level I mild cognitive impairment in PD, increasing age, male sex, and severity of PD motor signs independently increased the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia. Level I and level II mild cognitive impairment in PD classification had similar discriminative ability with respect to the time to Parkinson's disease dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Level I mild cognitive impairment in PD classification independently contributes to the hazard of Parkinson's disease dementia. This finding supports the prognostic validity of the abbreviated mild cognitive impairment in PD criteria. © 2019 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

A novel prognostic model for transplant-free survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: Most prognostic models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are based on patients referred to tertiary care and may not be applicable for the majority of patients with PSC. The aim of this study was to construct and externally validate a novel, broadly applicable prognostic model for transplant-free survival in PSC, based on a large, predominantly population-based cohort using readily available variables. DESIGN: The derivation cohort consisted of 692 patients with PSC from the Netherlands, the validation cohort of 264 patients with PSC from the UK. Retrospectively, clinical and biochemical variables were collected. We derived the prognostic index from a multivariable Cox regression model in which predictors were selected and parameters were estimated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The composite end point of PSC-related death and liver transplantation was used. To quantify the models' predictive value, we calculated the C-statistic as discrimination index and established its calibration accuracy by comparing predicted curves with Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: The final model included the variables: PSC subtype, age at PSC diagnosis, albumin, platelets, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin. The C-statistic was 0.68 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.85). Calibration was satisfactory. The model was robust in the sense that the C-statistic did not change when prediction was based on biochemical variables collected at follow-up. CONCLUSION: The Amsterdam-Oxford model for PSC showed adequate performance in estimating PSC-related death and/or liver transplant in a predominantly population-based setting. The transplant-free survival probability can be recalculated when updated biochemical values are available.

Prognostic Models for 9-Month Mortality in Tuberculous Meningitis.

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. We developed and validated prognostic models for 9-month mortality in adults with TBM, with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Methods: We included 1699 subjects from 4 randomized clinical trials and 1 prospective observational study conducted at 2 major referral hospitals in Southern Vietnam from 2001-2015. Modeling was based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The final prognostic models were validated internally and temporally and were displayed using nomograms and a Web-based app (https://thaole.shinyapps.io/tbmapp/). Results: 951 HIV-uninfected and 748 HIV-infected subjects with TBM were included; 219 of 951 (23.0%) and 384 of 748 (51.3%) died during 9-month follow-up. Common predictors for increased mortality in both populations were higher Medical Research Council (MRC) disease severity grade and lower cerebrospinal fluid lymphocyte cell count. In HIV-uninfected subjects, older age, previous tuberculosis, not receiving adjunctive dexamethasone, and focal neurological signs were additional risk factors; in HIV-infected subjects, lower weight, lower peripheral blood CD4 cell count, and abnormal plasma sodium were additional risk factors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the final prognostic models were 0.77 (HIV-uninfected population) and 0.78 (HIV-infected population), demonstrating better discrimination than the MRC grade (AUC, 0.66 and 0.70) or Glasgow Coma Scale score (AUC, 0.68 and 0.71) alone. Conclusions: The developed models showed good performance and could be used in clinical practice to assist physicians in identifying patients with TBM at high risk of death and with increased need of supportive care.

Modeling time-varying exposure using inverse probability of treatment weights.

For estimating the causal effect of treatment exposure on the occurrence of adverse events, inverse probability weights (IPW) can be used in marginal structural models to correct for time-dependent confounding. The R package ipw allows IPW estimation by modeling the relationship between the exposure and confounders via several regression models, among which is the Cox model. For right-censored data and time-dependent exposures such as treatment switches, the ipw package allows a single switch, assuming that patients are treated once and for all. However, to accommodate multiple switches, we extend this package by implementing a function that allows for multiple and intermittent exposure status in the estimation of IPW using a survival model. This extension allows for the whole exposure treatment trajectory in the estimation of IPW. The impact of the estimated weights on the estimated causal effect, with both methods, is assessed in a simulation study. Then, the function is illustrated on a real dataset from a nationwide prospective observational cohort including patients with inflammatory bowel disease. In this study, patients received one or multiple medications (thiopurines, methotrexate, and anti-TNF) over time. We used a Cox marginal structural model to assess the effect of thiopurines exposure on the cause-specific hazard for cancer incidence considering other treatments as confounding factors. To this end, we used our extended function which is available online in the Supporting Information.

Mild cognitive impairment as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease dementia.

BACKGROUND: The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society criteria for mild cognitive impairment in PD were recently formulated. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this international study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the comprehensive (level II) version of these criteria by assessment of their contribution to the hazard of PD dementia. METHODS: Individual patient data were selected from four separate studies on cognition in PD that provided information on demographics, motor examination, depression, neuropsychological examination suitable for application of level II criteria, and longitudinal follow-up for conversion to dementia. Survival analysis evaluated the predictive value of level II criteria for cognitive decline toward dementia as expressed by the relative hazard of dementia. RESULTS: A total of 467 patients were included. The analyses showed a clear contribution of impairment according to level II mild cognitive impairment criteria, age, and severity of PD motor symptoms to the hazard of dementia. There was a trend of increasing hazard of dementia with declining neuropsychological performance. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first large international study evaluating the predictive validity of level II mild cognitive impairment criteria for PD. The results showed a clear and unique contribution of classification according to level II criteria to the hazard of PD dementia. This finding supports their predictive validity and shows that they contribute important new information on the hazard of dementia, beyond known demographic and PD-specific factors of influence. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Increase in the prevalence of mutations associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected from early to late pregnancy in Nanoro, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are a high-risk group for Plasmodium falciparum infections, which may result in maternal anaemia and low birth weight newborns, among other adverse birth outcomes. Intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during pregnancy (IPTp-SP) is widely implemented to prevent these negative effects of malaria. However, resistance against SP by P. falciparum may decrease efficacy of IPTp-SP. Combinations of point mutations in the dhps (codons A437, K540) and dhfr genes (codons N51, C59, S108) of P. falciparum are associated with SP resistance. In this study the prevalence of SP resistance mutations was determined among P. falciparum found in pregnant women and the general population (GP) from Nanoro, Burkina Faso and the association of IPTp-SP dosing and other variables with mutations was studied. METHODS: Blood spots on filter papers were collected from pregnant women at their first antenatal care visit (ANC booking) and at delivery, from an ongoing trial and from the GP in a cross-sectional survey. The dhps and dhfr genes were amplified by nested PCR and products were sequenced to identify mutations conferring resistance (ANC booking, n = 400; delivery, n = 223; GP, n = 400). Prevalence was estimated with generalized estimating equations and for multivariate analyses mixed effects logistic regression was used. RESULTS: The prevalence of the triple dhfr mutation was high, and significantly higher in the GP and at delivery than at ANC booking, but it did not affect birth weight. Furthermore, quintuple mutations (triple dhfr and double dhps mutations) were found for the first time in Burkina Faso. IPTp-SP did not significantly affect the occurrence of any of the mutations, but high transmission season was associated with increased mutation prevalence in delivery samples. It is unclear why the prevalence of mutations was higher in the GP than in pregnant women at ANC booking. CONCLUSION: The high number of mutants and the presence of quintuple mutants in Burkina Faso confirm concerns about the efficacy of IPTp-SP in the near future. Other drug combinations to tackle malaria in pregnancy should, therefore, be explored. An increase in mutation prevalence due to IPTp-SP dosing could not be confirmed.