Shorter Treatment for Nonsevere Tuberculosis in African and Indian Children.

BACKGROUND: Two thirds of children with tuberculosis have nonsevere disease, which may be treatable with a shorter regimen than the current 6-month regimen. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, treatment-shortening, noninferiority trial involving children with nonsevere, symptomatic, presumably drug-susceptible, smear-negative tuberculosis in Uganda, Zambia, South Africa, and India. Children younger than 16 years of age were randomly assigned to 4 months (16 weeks) or 6 months (24 weeks) of standard first-line antituberculosis treatment with pediatric fixed-dose combinations as recommended by the World Health Organization. The primary efficacy outcome was unfavorable status (composite of treatment failure [extension, change, or restart of treatment or tuberculosis recurrence], loss to follow-up during treatment, or death) by 72 weeks, with the exclusion of participants who did not complete 4 months of treatment (modified intention-to-treat population). A noninferiority margin of 6 percentage points was used. The primary safety outcome was an adverse event of grade 3 or higher during treatment and up to 30 days after treatment. RESULTS: From July 2016 through July 2018, a total of 1204 children underwent randomization (602 in each group). The median age of the participants was 3.5 years (range, 2 months to 15 years), 52% were male, 11% had human immunodeficiency virus infection, and 14% had bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis. Retention by 72 weeks was 95%, and adherence to the assigned treatment was 94%. A total of 16 participants (3%) in the 4-month group had a primary-outcome event, as compared with 18 (3%) in the 6-month group (adjusted difference, -0.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -2.2 to 1.5). The noninferiority of 4 months of treatment was consistent across the intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and key secondary analyses, including when the analysis was restricted to the 958 participants (80%) independently adjudicated to have tuberculosis at baseline. A total of 95 participants (8%) had an adverse event of grade 3 or higher, including 15 adverse drug reactions (11 hepatic events, all but 2 of which occurred within the first 8 weeks, when the treatments were the same in the two groups). CONCLUSIONS: Four months of antituberculosis treatment was noninferior to 6 months of treatment in children with drug-susceptible, nonsevere, smear-negative tuberculosis. (Funded by the U.K. Medical Research Council and others; SHINE ISRCTN number, ISRCTN63579542.).

Estimating the impact of alternative programmatic cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality among children born to mothers with HIV: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend cotrimoxazole prophylaxis for children who are HIV-exposed until infection is excluded and vertical transmission risk has ended. While cotrimoxazole has benefits for children with HIV, there is no mortality benefit for children who are HIV-exposed but uninfected, prompting a review of global guidelines. Here, we model the potential impact of alternative cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality in children who are HIV-exposed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a deterministic compartmental model, we estimated mortality in children who are HIV-exposed from 6 weeks to 2 years of age in 4 high-burden countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Vertical transmission rates, testing rates, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake were derived from UNAIDS data, trial evidence, and meta-analyses. We explored 6 programmatic strategies: maintaining current recommendations; shorter cotrimoxazole provision for 3, 6, 9, or 12 months; and starting cotrimoxazole only for children diagnosed with HIV. Modelled alternatives to the current strategy increased mortality to varying degrees; countries with high vertical transmission had the greatest mortality. Compared to current recommendations, starting cotrimoxazole only after a positive HIV test had the greatest predicted increase in mortality: Mozambique (961 excess annual deaths; excess mortality 339 per 100,000 HIV-exposed children; risk ratio (RR) 1.06), Uganda (491; 221; RR 1.04), Zimbabwe (352; 260; RR 1.05), and Côte d'Ivoire (125; 322; RR 1.06). Similar effects were observed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month strategies. Increased mortality persisted but was attenuated when modelling lower cotrimoxazole uptake, smaller mortality benefits, higher testing coverage, and lower vertical transmission rates. The study is limited by uncertain estimates of cotrimoxazole coverage in programmatic settings; an inability to model increases in mortality arising from antimicrobial resistance due to limited surveillance data in sub-Saharan Africa; and lack of a formal health economic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Changing current guidelines from universal cotrimoxazole provision for children who are HIV-exposed increased predicted mortality across the 4 modelled high-burden countries, depending on test-to-treat cascade coverage and vertical transmission rates. These findings can help inform policymaker deliberations on cotrimoxazole strategies, recognising that the risks and benefits differ across settings.

Dolutegravir as First- or Second-Line Treatment for HIV-1 Infection in Children.

BACKGROUND: Children with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have limited options for effective antiretroviral treatment (ART). METHODS: We conducted an open-label, randomized, noninferiority trial comparing three-drug ART based on the HIV integrase inhibitor dolutegravir with standard care (non-dolutegravir-based ART) in children and adolescents starting first- or second-line ART. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with virologic or clinical treatment failure by 96 weeks, as estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Safety was assessed. RESULTS: From September 2016 through June 2018, a total of 707 children and adolescents who weighed at least 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir-based ART (350 participants) or standard care (357). The median age was 12.2 years (range, 2.9 to 18.0), the median weight was 30.7 kg (range, 14.0 to 85.0), and 49% of the participants were girls. By design, 311 participants (44%) started first-line ART (with 92% of those in the standard-care group receiving efavirenz-based ART), and 396 (56%) started second-line ART (with 98% of those in the standard-care group receiving boosted protease inhibitor-based ART). The median follow-up was 142 weeks. By 96 weeks, 47 participants in the dolutegravir group and 75 in the standard-care group had treatment failure (estimated probability, 0.14 vs. 0.22; difference, -0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.14 to -0.03; P = 0.004). Treatment effects were similar with first- and second-line therapies (P = 0.16 for heterogeneity). A total of 35 participants in the dolutegravir group and 40 in the standard-care group had at least one serious adverse event (P = 0.53), and 73 and 86, respectively, had at least one adverse event of grade 3 or higher (P = 0.24). At least one ART-modifying adverse event occurred in 5 participants in the dolutegravir group and in 17 in the standard-care group (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving children and adolescents with HIV-1 infection who were starting first- or second-line treatment, dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard care. (Funded by ViiV Healthcare; ODYSSEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02259127; EUDRACT number, 2014-002632-14; and ISRCTN number, ISRCTN91737921.).

Association of in utero HIV exposure with child brain structure and language development: a South African birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing population of children with in utero HIV exposure who are at risk of poor neurodevelopmental outcomes despite avoiding HIV infection. However, the underlying neurobiological pathways are not understood and neuroimaging studies are lacking. We aimed to investigate the cortical brain structure of children who are HIV-exposed and uninfected (HEU) compared to HIV-unexposed (HU) children and to examine the relationship with neurodevelopment. METHODS: The Drakenstein Child Health birth cohort study enrolled pregnant women from a high HIV prevalence area in South Africa with longitudinal follow-up of mother-child pairs. High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging scans from 162 children (70 HEU; 92 HU) were acquired at 2-3 years of age. All HEU children were born to mothers taking antiretroviral therapy. Measures of brain structure (cortical thickness and surface area) in the prefrontal cortex regions were extracted from T1-weighted images and compared between groups using multivariate analysis of variance and linear regression. Child development, assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III, was correlated with cortical structure, and mediation analyses were performed. RESULTS: Analyses demonstrated an association between HIV exposure and cortical thickness across the prefrontal cortex (p = 0.035). Children who were HEU had thicker cortices in prefrontal regions, with significantly greater cortical thickness in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) bilaterally compared to HU children (3.21 mm versus 3.14 mm, p = 0.009, adjusted effect size 0.44 [95% CI 0.12 to 0.75]). Estimates held across multiple sensitivity analyses. There were no group differences in cortical surface area. Language scores, which were lower in HEU versus HU children (81.82 versus 86.25, p = 0.011, effect size - 0.44 [95% CI - 0.78 to - 0.09]), negatively correlated with prefrontal cortical thickness in both groups. Cortical thickness in the mOFC mediated the relationship between HIV exposure and poor language outcomes (Sobel test p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort study, exposure to HIV during pregnancy was associated with altered cortical structure in early life. Our findings indicate that differences in cortical thickness development in the prefrontal region in children who are HEU may be a pathway leading to language impairment. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine the lasting impact.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outcomes of HIV-exposed neonates: a Zimbabwean tertiary hospital experience.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally impacted health service access, delivery and resources. There are limited data regarding the impact on the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service delivery in low-resource settings. Neotree ( www.neotree.org ) combines data collection, clinical decision support and education to improve care for neonates. Here we evaluate impacts of COVID-19 on care for HIV-exposed neonates. METHODS: Data on HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, between 01/06/2019 and 31/12/2021 were analysed, with pandemic start defined as 21/03/2020 and periods of industrial action (doctors (September 2019-January 2020) and nurses (June 2020-September 2020)) included, resulting in modelling during six time periods: pre-doctors' strike (baseline); doctors' strike; post-doctors' strike and pre-COVID; COVID and pre-nurses' strike; nurses' strike; post nurses' strike. Interrupted time series models were used to explore changes in indicators over time. RESULTS: Of 8,333 neonates admitted to the NNU, 904 (11%) were HIV-exposed. Mothers of 706/765 (92%) HIV-exposed neonates reported receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy. Compared to the baseline period when average admissions were 78 per week (95% confidence interval (CI) 70-87), significantly fewer neonates were admitted during all subsequent periods until after the nurses' strike, with the lowest average number during the nurses' strike (28, 95% CI 23-34, p < 0.001). Across all time periods excluding the nurses strike, average mortality was 20% (95% CI 18-21), but rose to 34% (95% CI 25, 46) during the nurses' strike. There was no evidence for heterogeneity (p > 0.22) in numbers of admissions or mortality by HIV exposure status. Fewer HIV-exposed neonates received a PCR test during the pandemic (23%) compared to the pre-pandemic periods (40%) (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.84, p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV-exposed neonates who received antiretroviral prophylaxis during admission was high throughout, averaging between 84% and 95% in each time-period. CONCLUSION: While antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-exposed neonates remained high throughout, concerning data on low admissions and increased mortality, similar in HIV-exposed and unexposed neonates, and reduced HIV testing, suggest some aspects of care may have been compromised due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Spontaneous Clearance of Vertically Acquired Hepatitis C Infection: Implications for Testing and Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend that infants born to women with hepatitis C virus (HCV) viremia be screened for HCV antibody at age 18 months and, if positive, referred for RNA testing at 3 years to confirm chronic infection. This policy is based, in part, on analyses that suggest that 25%-40% of vertically acquired HCV infections clear spontaneously within 4-5 years. METHODS: Data on 179 infants with HCV RNA and/or anti-HCV evidence of vertically acquired infection in 3 prospective European cohorts were investigated. Ages at clearance of infection were estimated taking account of interval censoring and delayed entry. We also investigated clearance in initially HCV RNA-negative infants in whom RNA was not detectable until after 6 weeks. RESULTS: Clearance rates were initially high then declined slowly. Apparently, many infections clear before they can be confirmed. An estimated 65.9% (95% credible interval [CrI], 50.1-81.6) of confirmed infections cleared by 5 years, at a median 12.4 (CrI, 7.1-18.9) months. If treatment were to begin at age 6 months, 18 months, or 3 years, at least 59.0% (CrI, 42.0-76.9), 39.7% (CrI, 17.9-65.9), and 20.9% (CrI, 4.6-44.8) of those treated would clear without treatment. In 7 (6.6%) confirmed infections, RNA was not detectable until after 6 weeks and not until after 6 months in 2 (1.9%). However, all such cases subsequently cleared. CONCLUSIONS: Most confirmed infection cleared by age 3 years. Treatment before age 3, if it was available, would avoid loss to follow-up but would result in substantial overtreatment.

Overall Vertical Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus, Transmission Net of Clearance, and Timing of Transmission.

BACKGROUND: It is widely accepted that the risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) vertical transmission (VT) is 5%-6% in monoinfected women, and that 25%-40% of HCV infection clears spontaneously within 5 years. However, there is no consensus on how VT rates should be estimated, and there is a lack of information on VT rates "net" of clearance. METHODS: We reanalyzed data on 1749 children in 3 prospective cohorts to obtain coherent estimates of overall VT rate and VT rates net of clearance at different ages. Clearance rates were used to impute the proportion of uninfected children who had been infected and then cleared before testing negative. The proportion of transmission early in utero, late in utero, and at delivery was estimated from data on the proportion of HCV RNA positive within 3 days of birth, and differences between elective cesarean and nonelective cesarean deliveries. RESULTS: Overall VT rates were 7.2% (95% credible interval [CrI], 5.6%-8.9%) in mothers who were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative and 12.1% (95% CrI, 8.6%-16.8%) in HIV-coinfected women. The corresponding rates net of clearance at 5 years were 2.4% (95% CrI, 1.1%-4.1%), and 4.1% (95% CrI, 1.7%-7.3%). We estimated that 24.8% (95% CrI, 12.1%-40.8%) of infections occur early in utero, 66.0% (95% CrI, 42.5%-83.3%) later in utero, and 9.3% (95% CrI, 0.5%-30.6%) during delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Overall VT rates are about 24% higher than previously assumed, but the risk of infection persisting beyond age 5 years is about 38% lower. The results can inform design of trials of interventions to prevent or treat pediatric HCV infection, and strategies to manage children exposed in utero.

Pharmacokinetic Data of Dolutegravir in Second-line Treatment of Children With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Results From the CHAPAS4 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG), combined with a backbone of 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, is currently the preferred first-line treatment for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in childhood. CHAPAS4 is an ongoing randomized controlled trial investigating second-line treatment options for children with HIV. We did a nested pharmacokinetic (PK) substudy within CHAPAS4 to evaluate the DTG exposure in children with HIV taking DTG with food as part of their second-line treatment. METHODS: Additional consent was required for children on DTG enrolled in the CHAPAS4 trial to participate in this PK substudy. Children weighing 14-19.9 kg took 25 mg DTG as dispersible tablets and children ≥20 kg took 50 mg film-coated tablets. Steady-state 24-hour DTG plasma concentration-time PK profiling was done at t = 0 and 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, and 24 hours after observed DTG intake with food. Reference adult PK data and pediatric data from the ODYSSEY trial were used primarily for comparison. The individual target trough concentration (Ctrough) was defined as 0.32 mg/L. RESULTS: Thirty-nine children on DTG were included in this PK substudy. The geometric mean (GM) area under the concentration-time curve over the dosing interval (AUC0-24h) was 57.1 hours × mg/L (coefficient of variation [CV%], 38.4%), which was approximately 8% below the average AUC0-24h in children in the ODYSSEY trial with comparable dosages, but above the adult reference. The GM (CV%) Ctrough was 0.82 mg/L (63.8%), which was comparable to ODYSSEY and adult reference values. CONCLUSIONS: This nested PK substudy shows that the exposure of DTG taken with food in children on second-line treatment is comparable with that of children in the ODYSSEY trial and adult references. Clinical Trials Registration.ISRCTN22964075.

First Pharmacokinetic Data of Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate and Tenofovir With Dolutegravir or Boosted Protease Inhibitors in African Children: A Substudy of the CHAPAS-4 Trial.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the pharmacokinetics of tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) and tenofovir in a subset of African children enrolled in the CHAPAS-4 trial. METHODS: Children aged 3-15 years with human immunodeficiency virus infection failing first-line antiretroviral therapy were randomized to emtricitabine/TAF versus standard-of-care nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor combination, plus dolutegravir, atazanavir/ritonavir, darunavir/ritonavir, or lopinavir/ritonavir. Daily emtricitabine/TAF was dosed according to World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended weight bands: 120/15 mg in children weighing 14 to <25 kg and 200/25 mg in those weighing ≥25 kg. At steady state, 8-9 blood samples were taken to construct pharmacokinetic curves. Geometric mean (GM) area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and the maximum concentration (Cmax) were calculated for TAF and tenofovir and compared to reference exposures in adults. RESULTS: Pharmacokinetic results from 104 children taking TAF were analyzed. GM (coefficient of variation [CV%]) TAF AUClast when combined with dolutegravir (n = 18), darunavir/ritonavir (n = 34), or lopinavir/ritonavir (n = 20) were 284.5 (79), 232.0 (61), and 210.2 (98) ng*hour/mL, respectively, and were comparable to adult reference values. When combined with atazanavir/ritonavir (n = 32), TAF AUClast increased to 511.4 (68) ng*hour/mL. For each combination, tenofovir GM (CV%) AUCtau and Cmax remained below reference values in adults taking 25 mg TAF with a boosted protease inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In children, TAF combined with boosted PIs or dolutegravir and dosed according to WHO-recommended weight bands provides TAF and tenofovir concentrations previously demonstrated to be well tolerated and effective in adults. These data provide the first evidence for use of these combinations in African children. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN22964075.

Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

Transfusion Volume for Children with Severe Anemia in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Severe anemia (hemoglobin level, <6 g per deciliter) is a leading cause of hospital admission and death in children in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Health Organization recommends transfusion of 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight for anemia, regardless of hemoglobin level. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label trial, we randomly assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with a hemoglobin level of less than 6 g per deciliter and severity features (e.g., respiratory distress or reduced consciousness) to receive immediate blood transfusion with 20 ml per kilogram or 30 ml per kilogram. Three other randomized analyses investigated immediate as compared with no immediate transfusion, the administration of postdischarge micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3196 eligible children (median age, 37 months; 2050 [64.1%] with malaria) were assigned to receive a transfusion of 30 ml per kilogram (1598 children) or 20 ml per kilogram (1598 children) and were followed for 180 days. A total of 1592 children (99.6%) in the higher-volume group and 1596 (99.9%) in the lower-volume group started transfusion (median, 1.2 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) volume of total blood transfused per child was 475±385 ml and 353±348 ml, respectively; 197 children (12.3%) and 300 children (18.8%) in the respective groups received additional transfusions. Overall, 55 children (3.4%) in the higher-volume group and 72 (4.5%) in the lower-volume group died before 28 days (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 1.08; P = 0.12 by log-rank test). This finding masked significant heterogeneity in 28-day mortality according to the presence or absence of fever (>37.5°C) at screening (P=0.001 after Sidak correction). Among the 1943 children (60.8%) without fever, mortality was lower with a transfusion volume of 30 ml per kilogram than with a volume of 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.69). Among the 1253 children (39.2%) with fever, mortality was higher with 30 ml per kilogram than with 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.49). There was no evidence of differences between the randomized groups in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Overall mortality did not differ between the two transfusion strategies. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, United Kingdom; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

Immediate Transfusion in African Children with Uncomplicated Severe Anemia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends not performing transfusions in African children hospitalized for uncomplicated severe anemia (hemoglobin level of 4 to 6 g per deciliter and no signs of clinical severity). However, high mortality and readmission rates suggest that less restrictive transfusion strategies might improve outcomes. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with uncomplicated severe anemia to immediate transfusion with 20 ml or 30 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight, as determined in a second simultaneous randomization, or no immediate transfusion (control group), in which transfusion with 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram was triggered by new signs of clinical severity or a drop in hemoglobin to below 4 g per deciliter. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Three other randomizations investigated transfusion volume, postdischarge supplementation with micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. RESULTS: A total of 1565 children (median age, 26 months) underwent randomization, with 778 assigned to the immediate-transfusion group and 787 to the control group; 984 children (62.9%) had malaria. The children were followed for 180 days, and 71 (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. During the primary hospitalization, transfusion was performed in all the children in the immediate-transfusion group and in 386 (49.0%) in the control group (median time to transfusion, 1.3 hours vs. 24.9 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) total blood volume transfused per child was 314±228 ml in the immediate-transfusion group and 142±224 ml in the control group. Death had occurred by 28 days in 7 children (0.9%) in the immediate-transfusion group and in 13 (1.7%) in the control group (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22 to 1.36; P = 0.19) and by 180 days in 35 (4.5%) and 47 (6.0%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.15), without evidence of interaction with other randomizations (P>0.20) or evidence of between-group differences in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. The mean length of hospital stay was 0.9 days longer in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of differences in clinical outcomes over 6 months between the children who received immediate transfusion and those who did not. The triggered-transfusion strategy in the control group resulted in lower blood use; however, the length of hospital stay was longer, and this strategy required clinical and hemoglobin monitoring. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

Children living with HIV in Europe: do migrants have worse treatment outcomes?

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of migrant status on treatment outcomes among children living with HIV in Europe. METHODS: Children aged < 18 years at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in European paediatric HIV observational cohorts where ≥ 5% of children were migrants (defined as born abroad) were included. Three outcomes were considered: (i) severe immunosuppression-for-age; (ii) viraemic viral load (≥ 400 copies/mL) at 1 year after ART initiation; and (iii) AIDS/death after ART initiation. The effect of migrant status was assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox models. RESULTS: Of 2620 children included across 12 European countries, 56% were migrants. At ART initiation, migrant children were older than domestic-born children (median 6.1 vs. 0.9 years, p < 0.001), with slightly higher proportions being severely immunocompromised (35% vs. 33%) and with active tuberculosis (2% vs. 1%), but a lower proportion with an AIDS diagnosis (14% vs. 19%) (all p < 0.001). At 1 year after beginning ART, a lower proportion of migrant children were viraemic (18% vs. 24%) but there was no difference in multivariable analysis (p = 0.702), and no difference in severe immunosuppression (p = 0.409). However, there was a trend towards higher risk of AIDS/death in migrant children (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.96-2.38, p = 0.072). CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for characteristics at ART initiation, migrant children have virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year of ART that are comparable to those who are domestic-born, possibly indicating equity in access to healthcare in Europe. However, there was some evidence of a difference in AIDS-free survival, which warrants further monitoring.

A predictive algorithm for identifying children with sickle cell anemia among children admitted to hospital with severe anemia in Africa.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is common in sub-Saharan Africa where approximately 1% of births are affected. Severe anemia is a common cause for hospital admission within the region yet few studies have investigated the contribution made by SCA. The Transfusion and Treatment of severe anemia in African Children Trial (ISRCTN84086586) investigated various treatment strategies in 3983 children admitted with severe anemia (hemoglobin < 6.0 g/dl) based on two severity strata to four hospitals in Africa (three Uganda and one Malawi). Children with known-SCA were excluded from the uncomplicated stratum and capped at 25% in the complicated stratum. All participants were genotyped for SCA at trial completion. SCA was rare in Malawi (six patients overall), so here we focus on the participants recruited in Uganda. We present baseline characteristics by SCA status and propose an algorithm for identifying children with unknown-SCA. Overall, 430 (12%) and 608 (17%) of the 3483 Ugandan participants had known- or unknown-SCA, respectively. Children with SCA were less likely to be malaria-positive and more likely to have an affected sibling, have gross splenomegaly, or to have received a previous blood transfusion. Most outcomes, including mortality and readmission, were better in children with either known or unknown-SCA than non-SCA children. A simple algorithm based on seven admission criteria detected 73% of all children with unknown-SCA with a number needed to test to identify one new SCA case of only two. Our proposed algorithm offers an efficient and cost-effective approach to identifying children with unknown-SCA among all children admitted with severe anemia to African hospitals where screening is not widely available.

Borrowing information across patient subgroups in clinical trials, with application to a paediatric trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial investigators may need to evaluate treatment effects in a specific subgroup (or subgroups) of participants in addition to reporting results of the entire study population. Such subgroups lack power to detect a treatment effect, but there may be strong justification for borrowing information from a larger patient group within the same trial, while allowing for differences between populations. Our aim was to develop methods for eliciting expert opinions about differences in treatment effect between patient populations, and to incorporate these opinions into a Bayesian analysis. METHODS: We used an interaction parameter to model the relationship between underlying treatment effects in two subgroups. Elicitation was used to obtain clinical opinions on the likely values of the interaction parameter, since this parameter is poorly informed by the data. Feedback was provided to experts to communicate how uncertainty about the interaction parameter corresponds with relative weights allocated to subgroups in the Bayesian analysis. The impact on the planned analysis was then determined. RESULTS: The methods were applied to an ongoing non-inferiority trial designed to compare antiretroviral therapy regimens in 707 children living with HIV and weighing ≥ 14 kg, with an additional group of 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg in whom the treatment effect will be estimated separately. Expert clinical opinion was elicited and demonstrated that substantial borrowing is supported. Clinical experts chose on average to allocate a relative weight of 78% (reduced from 90% based on sample size) to data from children weighing ≥ 14 kg in a Bayesian analysis of the children weighing < 14 kg. The total effective sample size in the Bayesian analysis was 386 children, providing 84% predictive power to exclude a difference of more than 10% between arms, whereas the 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg provided only 20% power in a standalone frequentist analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Borrowing information from a larger subgroup or subgroups can facilitate estimation of treatment effects in small subgroups within a clinical trial, leading to improved power and precision. Informative prior distributions for interaction parameters are required to inform the degree of borrowing and can be informed by expert opinion. We demonstrated accessible methods for obtaining opinions.

Combining factorial and multi-arm multi-stage platform designs to evaluate multiple interventions efficiently.

BACKGROUND: Factorial designs and multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform designs have many advantages, but the practical advantages and disadvantages of combining the two designs have not been explored. METHODS: We propose practical methods for a combined design within the platform trial paradigm where some interventions are not expected to interact and could be given together. RESULTS: We describe the combined design and suggest diagrams that can be used to represent it. Many properties are common both to standard factorial designs, including the need to consider interactions between interventions and the impact of intervention efficacy on power of other comparisons, and to standard multi-arm multi-stage designs, including the need to pre-specify procedures for starting and stopping intervention comparisons. We also identify some specific features of the factorial-MAMS design: timing of interim and final analyses should be determined by calendar time or total observed events; some non-factorial modifications may be useful; eligibility criteria should be broad enough to include any patient eligible for any part of the randomisation; stratified randomisation may conveniently be performed sequentially; and analysis requires special care to use only concurrent controls. CONCLUSION: A combined factorial-MAMS design can combine the efficiencies of factorial trials and multi-arm multi-stage platform trials. It allows us to address multiple research questions under one protocol and to test multiple new treatment options, which is particularly important when facing a new emergent infection such as COVID-19.

Transfusion management of severe anaemia in African children: a consensus algorithm.

The phase III Transfusion and Treatment of severe anaemia in African Children Trial (TRACT) found that conservative management of uncomplicated severe anaemia [haemoglobin (Hb) 40-60 g/l] was safe, and that transfusion volume (20 vs. 30 ml/kg whole blood equivalent) for children with severe anaemia (Hb <60 g/l) had strong but opposing effects on mortality, depending on fever status (>37·5°C). In 2020 a stakeholder meeting of paediatric and blood transfusion groups from Africa reviewed the results and additional analyses. Among all 3196 children receiving an initial transfusion there was no evidence that nutritional status, presence of shock, malaria parasite burden or sickle cell disease status influenced outcomes or modified the interaction with fever status on volume required. Fever status at the time of ordering blood was a reliable determinant of volume required for optimal outcome. Elevated heart and respiratory rates normalised irrespective of transfusion volume and without diuretics. By consensus, a transfusion management algorithm was developed, incorporating three additional measurements of Hb post-admission, alongside clinical monitoring. The proposed algorithm should help clinicians safely implement findings from TRACT. Further research should assess its implementation in routine clinical practice.

ODYSSEY clinical trial design: a randomised global study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children, with nested pharmacokinetic sub-studies to evaluate pragmatic WHO-weight-band based dolutegravir dosing.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir (DTG)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is highly effective and well-tolerated in adults and is rapidly being adopted globally. We describe the design of the ODYSSEY trial which evaluates the efficacy and safety of DTG-based ART compared with standard-of-care in children and adolescents. The ODYSSEY trial includes nested pharmacokinetic (PK) sub-studies which evaluated pragmatic World Health Organization (WHO) weight-band-based DTG dosing and opened recruitment to children < 14 kg while dosing was in development. METHODS: ODYSSEY (Once-daily DTG based ART in Young people vS. Standard thErapY) is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority, basket trial comparing the efficacy and safety of DTG + 2 nucleos(t) ides (NRTIs) versus standard-of-care (SOC) in HIV-infected children < 18 years starting first-line ART (ODYSSEY A) or switching to second-line ART (ODYSSEY B). The primary endpoint is clinical or virological failure by 96 weeks. RESULTS: Between September 2016 and June 2018, 707 children weighing ≥14 kg were enrolled; including 311 ART-naïve children and 396 children starting second-line. 47% of children were enrolled in Uganda, 21% Zimbabwe, 20% South Africa, 9% Thailand, 4% Europe. 362 (51%) participants were male; median age [range] at enrolment was 12.2 years [2.9-18.0]. 82 (12%) children weighed 14 to < 20 kg, 135 (19%) 20 to < 25 kg, 206 (29%) 25 to < 35 kg, 284 (40%) ≥35 kg. 128 (18%) had WHO stage 3 and 60 (8%) WHO stage 4 disease. Challenges encountered include: (i) running the trial across high- to low-income countries with differing frequencies of standard-of-care viral load monitoring; (ii) evaluating pragmatic DTG dosing in PK sub-studies alongside FDA- and EMA-approved dosing and subsequently transitioning participants to new recommended doses; (iii) delays in dosing information for children weighing 3 to < 14 kg and rapid recruitment of ART-naïve older/heavier children, which led to capping recruitment of participants weighing ≥35 kg in ODYSSEY A and extending recruitment (above 700) to allow for ≥60 additional children weighing between 3 to < 14 kg with associated PK; (iv) a safety alert associated with DTG use during pregnancy, which required a review of the safety plan for adolescent girls. CONCLUSIONS: By employing a basket design, to include ART-naïve and -experienced children, and nested PK sub-studies, the ODYSSEY trial efficiently evaluates multiple scientific questions regarding dosing and effectiveness of DTG-based ART in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT, NCT02259127 , registered 7th October 2014; EUDRACT, 2014-002632-14, registered 18th June 2014 ( https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2014-002632-14/ES ); ISRCTN, ISRCTN91737921 , registered 4th October 2014.

Early ART-initiation and longer ART duration reduces HIV-1 proviral DNA levels in children from the CHER trial.

BACKGROUND: Reduction of the reservoir of latent HIV-infected cells might increase the possibility of long-term remission in individuals living with HIV. We investigated factors associated with HIV-1 proviral DNA levels in children receiving different antiretroviral therapy (ART) strategies in the children with HIV early antiretroviral therapy (CHER) trial. METHODS: Infants with HIV < 12 weeks old with CD4% ≥ 25% were randomized in the CHER trial to early limited ART for 40 or 96 weeks (ART-40 W, ART-96 W), or deferred ART (ART-Def). For ART-Def infants or following ART interruption in ART-40 W/ART-96 W, ART was started/re-started for clinical progression or CD4% < 25%. In 229 participants, HIV-1 proviral DNA was quantified by PCR from stored peripheral blood mononuclear cells from children who had received ≥ 24 weeks ART and two consecutive undetectable HIV-1 RNA 12-24 weeks apart. HIV-1 proviral DNA was compared between ART-Def and ART-96 W at week 96, and in all arms at week 248. Factors associated with HIV-1 proviral DNA levels were evaluated using linear regression. FINDINGS: Longer duration of ART was significantly associated with lower HIV-1 proviral DNA at both 96 (p = 0.0003) and 248 weeks (p = 0.0011). Higher total CD8 count at ART initiation was associated with lower HIV-1 proviral DNA at both 96 (p = 0.0225) and 248 weeks (p = 0.0398). Week 248 HIV-1 proviral DNA was significantly higher in those with positive HIV-1 serology at week 84 than those with negative serology (p = 0.0042). INTEPRETATION: Longer ART duration is key to HIV-1 proviral DNA reduction. Further understanding is needed of the effects of "immune-attenuation" through early HIV-1 exposure. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council.

Incidence and predictors of hospital readmission in children presenting with severe anaemia in Uganda and Malawi: a secondary analysis of TRACT trial data.

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 6 g/dL) is a leading cause of recurrent hospitalisation in African children. We investigated predictors of readmission in children hospitalised with severe anaemia in the TRACT trial (ISRCTN84086586) in order to identify potential future interventions. METHODS: Secondary analyses of the trial examined 3894 children from Uganda and Malawi surviving a hospital episode of severe anaemia. Predictors of all-cause readmission within 180 days of discharge were identified using multivariable regression with death as a competing risk. Groups of children with similar characteristics were identified using hierarchical clustering. RESULTS: Of the 3894 survivors 682 (18%) were readmitted; 403 (10%) had ≥2 re-admissions over 180 days. Three main causes of readmission were identified: severe anaemia (n = 456), malaria (n = 252) and haemoglobinuria/dark urine syndrome (n = 165). Overall, factors increasing risk of readmission included HIV-infection (hazard ratio 2.48 (95% CI 1.63-3.78), p < 0.001); ≥2 hospital admissions in the preceding 12 months (1.44(1.19-1.74), p < 0.001); history of transfusion (1.48(1.13-1.93), p = 0.005); and missing ≥1 trial medication dose (proxy for care quality) (1.43 (1.21-1.69), p < 0.001). Children with uncomplicated severe anaemia (Hb 4-6 g/dL and no severity features), who never received a transfusion (per trial protocol) during the initial admission had a substantially lower risk of readmission (0.67(0.47-0.96), p = 0.04). Malaria (among children with no prior history of transfusion) (0.60(0.47-0.76), p < 0.001); younger-age (1.07 (1.03-1.10) per 1 year younger, p < 0.001) and known sickle cell disease (0.62(0.46-0.82), p = 0.001) also decreased risk of readmission. For anaemia re-admissions, gross splenomegaly and enlarged spleen increased risk by 1.73(1.23-2.44) and 1.46(1.18-1.82) respectively compared to no splenomegaly. Clustering identified four groups of children with readmission rates from 14 to 20%. The cluster with the highest readmission rate was characterised by very low haemoglobin (mean 3.6 g/dL). Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) predominated in two clusters associated with chronic repeated admissions or severe, acute presentations in largely undiagnosed SCD. The final cluster had high rates of malaria (78%), severity signs and very low platelet count, consistent with acute severe malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Younger age, HIV infection and history of previous hospital admissions predicted increased risk of readmission. However, no obvious clinical factors for intervention were identified. As missing medication doses was highly predictive, attention to care related factors may be important. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN84086586 .