Predicting medical usage rate at mass gathering events in Belgium: development and validation of a nonlinear multivariable regression model.

BACKGROUND: Every year, volunteers of the Belgian Red Cross provide onsite medical care at more than 8000 mass gathering events and other manifestations. Today standardized planning tools for optimal preventive medical resource use during these events are lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of patient presentation rate (PPR) and transfer to hospital rate (TTHR) at mass gatherings in Belgium. METHODS: More than 200,000 medical interventions from 2006 to 2018 were pooled in a database. We used a subset of 28 different mass gatherings (194 unique events) to develop a nonlinear prediction model. Using regression trees, we identified potential predictors for PPR and TTHR at these mass gatherings. The additional effect of ambient temperature was studied by linear regression analysis. Finally, we validated the prediction models using two other subsets of the database. RESULTS: The regression tree for PPR consisted of 7 splits, with mass gathering category as the most important predictor variable. Other predictor variables were attendance, number of days, and age class. Ambient temperature was positively associated with PPR at outdoor events in summer. Calibration of the model revealed an R2 of 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.60-0.75). For TTHR, the most determining predictor variables were mass gathering category and predicted PPR (R2 = 0.48). External validation indicated limited predictive value for other events (R2 = 0.02 for PPR; R2 = 0.03 for TTHR). CONCLUSIONS: Our nonlinear model performed well in predicting PPR at the events used to build the model on, but had poor predictive value for other mass gatherings. The mass gathering categories "outdoor music" and "sports event" warrant further splitting in subcategories, and variables such as attendance, temperature and resource deployment need to be better recorded in the future to optimize prediction of medical usage rates, and hence, of resources needed for onsite emergency medical care.

Mass gathering events: a retrospective analysis of the triage categories, type of injury or medical complaint and medical usage rates.

BACKGROUND: Adequate on-site first aid delivery at mass gatherings (MGs) is one of the cornerstones to ensure safe and healthy MGs. We investigated medical usage rates, frequency of triage categories and type of injury or medical complaint, among attendees at MGs in Belgium. METHODS: We analysed the Medical Triage and Registration Informatics System database, which includes prospectively collected person-level data regarding individuals visiting on-site posts at MGs in Belgium. MGs attended by >10 000 people and organised ≥5 times between 2009 and 2018 were included. We determined the proportion of patients in each triage category ('first aid' vs 'medical condition' vs 'medical emergency' vs 'no treatment') and each type of injury or medical complaint, and we calculated patient presentation rate (PPR) and transfer to hospital rate (TTHR). RESULTS: Twenty-eight MGs, totalling 194 events, were included involving 148 265 patient visits. 'First aid' was the most common triage category (80%, n=118 514). The need for a nurse/physician ('medical condition'), and for the treatment of life-threatening conditions ('medical emergency') was rare (8.9%, n=13 052, and 0.6%, n=860, of all patient presentations, respectively), but remarkably higher during indoor electronic dance music (EDM) events (17.8% (n=26 391) and 4.0% (n=5930), of all patient presentations, respectively). 'Skin wounds' were the most common injury category (42.4%, n=62 275). 'Respiratory problems', 'neurological problems', 'intoxication', 'heart complaints' and 'gastrointestinal complaints' were more frequent during indoor (electronic) dance, whereas 'burns', 'fracture/contusion' and 'skin wounds' were higher during outdoor music, sports events and city festivals, respectively. PPR (per 10 000 attendees) was highest for outdoor EDM and outdoor music (median 130 (IQR 79) and 129 (IQR 104), respectively). TTHR (per 10 000 attendees) was highest for indoor EDM (median 4.4 (IQR 8.5)). CONCLUSION: Medical usage rates, proportion of patients in triage and injury or medical complaint categories varied across different MG categories, suggesting opportunities for planning medical coverage at these events.