Spatially explicit power analysis for detecting occupancy trends for multiple species.

Assessing the statistical power to detect changes in wildlife populations is a crucial yet often overlooked step when designing and evaluating monitoring programs. Here, we developed a simulation framework to perform spatially explicit statistical power analysis of biological monitoring programs for detecting temporal trends in occupancy for multiple species. Using raster layers representing the spatial variation in current occupancy and species-level detectability for one or multiple observation methods, our framework simulates changes in occupancy over space and time, with the capacity to explicitly model stochastic disturbances at monitoring sites (i.e., dynamic landscapes). Once users specify the number and location of sites, the frequency and duration of surveys, and the type of detection method(s) for each species, our framework estimates power to detect occupancy trends, both across the landscape and/or within nested management units. As a case study, we evaluated the power of a long-term monitoring program to detect trends in occupancy for 136 species (83 birds, 33 reptiles, and 20 mammals) across and within Kakadu, Litchfield, and Nitmiluk National Parks in northern Australia. We assumed continuation of an original monitoring design implemented since 1996, with the addition of camera trapping. As expected, power to detect trends was sensitive to the direction and magnitude of the change in occupancy, detectability, initial occupancy levels, and the rarity of species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring has at least an 80% chance at detecting a 50% decline in occupancy for 22% of the modeled species across the three parks over the next 15 yr. Monitoring is more likely to detect increasing occupancy trends, with at least an 80% chance at detecting a 50% increase in 87% of species. The addition of camera-trapping increased average power to detect a 50% decline in mammals compared with using only live trapping by 63%. We provide a flexible tool that can help decision-makers design and evaluate monitoring programs for hundreds of species at a time in a range of ecological settings, while explicitly considering the distribution of species and alternative sampling methods.

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty.

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long-term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex-situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species' persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.

Effect of partial covering of the visitor viewing area window on positioning and orientation of zoo orangutans: A preference test.

The window of the visitor viewing area adjacent to an animal platform in an orangutan enclosure was altered to produce three viewing treatments in a randomized controlled experiment. These treatments were window uncovered, left side of the window covered or right side of the window covered. Observations were conducted on the orangutans present on the platform, and on their location (left or right side), and orientation (towards or away from the window) while on the platform. The partial covering of the window had little effect on the proportion of time orangutans spent on the viewing platform, or on the direction they faced when on the platform. When the orangutans were facing towards the window, and the right side was uncovered, irrespective of whether the left side was covered, they spent about three quarters of the time on the right side, suggesting a preference for the right side of the platform. However, when the right side was covered and the left side uncovered, the animals facing towards the window spent only about a quarter of the time on the right side, that is, they spent more time on the uncovered side. The results suggest that the orangutans have a preference to position themselves to face the window of the visitor viewing area.

Assortative mating among animals of captive and wild origin following experimental conservation releases.

Captive breeding is a high profile management tool used for conserving threatened species. However, the inevitable consequence of generations in captivity is broad scale and often-rapid phenotypic divergence between captive and wild individuals, through environmental differences and genetic processes. Although poorly understood, mate choice preference is one of the changes that may occur in captivity that could have important implications for the reintroduction success of captive-bred animals. We bred wild-caught house mice for three generations to examine mating patterns and reproductive outcomes when these animals were simultaneously released into multiple outdoor enclosures with wild conspecifics. At release, there were significant differences in phenotypic (e.g. body mass) and genetic measures (e.g. Gst and F) between captive-bred and wild adult mice. Furthermore, 83% of offspring produced post-release were of same source parentage, inferring pronounced assortative mating. Our findings suggest that captive breeding may affect mating preferences, with potentially adverse implications for the success of threatened species reintroduction programmes.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of drones, camera trapping and passive acoustic recorders in detecting changes in koala occupancy.

Quantifying the cost-effectiveness of alternative sampling methods is crucial for efficient biodiversity monitoring and detection of population trends. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of three novel sampling methods for detecting changes in koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) occupancy: thermal drones, passive acoustic recorders and camera trapping. Specifically, we fitted single-season occupancy-detection models to data recorded from 46 sites in eight bioregions of New South Wales, Australia, between 2018 and 2022. We explored the effect of weather variables on daily detection probability for each method and, using these estimates, calculated the statistical power to detect 30%, 50% and 80% declines in koala occupancy. We calculated power for different combinations of sites (1-200) and repeat surveys (2-40) and developed a cost model that found the cheapest survey design that achieved 80% power to detect change. On average, detectability of koalas was highest with one 24-h period of acoustic surveys (0.32, 95% CI's: 0.26, 0.39) compared to a 25-ha flight of drone surveys (0.28, 95% 0.15, 0.48) or a 24-h period of camera trapping consisting of six cameras (0.019, 95% CI's: 0.014, 0.025). We found a negative quadratic relationship between detection probability and air temperature for all three methods. Our power and cost analysis suggested that 148 sites surveyed with acoustic recorders deployed for 14 days would be the cheapest method to sufficiently detect a 30% decline in occupancy with 80% power. We recommend passive acoustic recorders as the most efficient sampling method for monitoring koala occupancy compared to cameras or drones. Further comparative studies are needed to compare the relative effectiveness of these methods and others when the monitoring objective is to detect change in koala abundance over time.

An invasive pathogen drives directional niche contractions in amphibians.

Global change is causing an unprecedented restructuring of ecosystems, with the spread of invasive species being a key driver. While population declines of native species due to invasives are well documented, much less is known about whether new biotic interactions reshape niches of native species. Here we quantify geographic range and realized-niche contractions in Australian frog species following the introduction of amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogen responsible for catastrophic amphibian declines worldwide. We show that chytrid-impacted species experienced proportionately greater contractions in niche breadth than geographic distribution following chytrid emergence. Furthermore, niche contractions were directional, with contemporary distributions of chytrid-impacted species characterized by higher temperatures, lower diurnal temperature range, higher precipitation and lower elevations. Areas with these conditions may enable host persistence with chytrid through lower pathogenicity of the fungus and/or greater demographic resilience. Nevertheless, contraction to a narrower subset of environmental conditions could increase host vulnerability to other threatening processes and should be considered in assessments of extinction risk and during conservation planning. More broadly, our results emphasize that biotic interactions can strongly shape species realized niches and that large-scale niche contractions due to new species interactions-particularly emerging pathogens-could be widespread.

Trophic cascade driven by behavioral fine-tuning as naïve prey rapidly adjust to a novel predator.

The arrival of novel predators can trigger trophic cascades driven by shifts in prey numbers. Predators also elicit behavioral change in prey populations, via phenotypic plasticity and/or rapid evolution, and such changes may also contribute to trophic cascades. Here, we document rapid demographic and behavioral changes in populations of a prey species (grassland melomys Melomys burtoni, a granivorous rodent) following the introduction of a novel marsupial predator (northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus). Within months of quolls appearing, populations of melomys exhibited reduced survival and population declines relative to control populations. Quoll-invaded populations were also significantly shyer than nearby, quoll-free populations of conspecifics. This rapid but generalized response to a novel threat was replaced over the following 2 yr with more threat-specific antipredator behaviors (i.e., predator-scent aversion). Predator-exposed populations, however, remained more neophobic than predator-free populations throughout the study. These behavioral responses manifested rapidly in changed rates of seed predation by melomys across treatments. Quoll-invaded melomys populations exhibited lower per-capita seed take rates, and rapidly developed an avoidance of seeds associated with quoll scent, with discrimination playing out over a spatial scale of tens of meters. Presumably the significant and novel predation pressure induced by quolls drove melomys populations to fine-tune behavioral responses to be more predator specific through time. These behavioral shifts could reflect individual plasticity (phenotypic flexibility) in behavior or may be adaptive shifts from natural selection imposed by quoll predation. Our study provides a rare insight into the rapid ecological and behavioral shifts enacted by prey to mitigate the impacts of a novel predator and shows that trophic cascades can be strongly influenced by behavioral as well as numerical responses.

A national-scale dataset for threats impacting Australia's imperiled flora and fauna.

Australia is in the midst of an extinction crisis, having already lost 10% of terrestrial mammal fauna since European settlement and with hundreds of other species at high risk of extinction. The decline of the nation's biota is a result of an array of threatening processes; however, a comprehensive taxon-specific understanding of threats and their relative impacts remains undocumented nationally. Using expert consultation, we compile the first complete, validated, and consistent taxon-specific threat and impact dataset for all nationally listed threatened taxa in Australia. We confined our analysis to 1,795 terrestrial and aquatic taxa listed as threatened (Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered) under Australian Commonwealth law. We engaged taxonomic experts to generate taxon-specific threat and threat impact information to consistently apply the IUCN Threat Classification Scheme and Threat Impact Scoring System, as well as eight broad-level threats and 51 subcategory threats, for all 1,795 threatened terrestrial and aquatic threatened taxa. This compilation produced 4,877 unique taxon-threat-impact combinations with the most frequently listed threats being Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation (n = 1,210 taxa), and Invasive species and disease (n = 966 taxa). Yet when only high-impact threats or medium-impact threats are considered, Invasive species and disease become the most prevalent threats. This dataset provides critical information for conservation action planning, national legislation and policy, and prioritizing investments in threatened species management and recovery.

A new velvet gecko (Oedura: Diplodactylidae) from Groote Eylandt, Northern Territory.

Over the last decade, the combination of biological surveys, genetic diversity assessments and systematic research has revealed a growing number of previously unrecognised vertebrate species endemic to the Australian Monsoonal Tropics. Here we describe a new species of saxicoline velvet gecko in the Oedura marmorata complex from Groote Eylandt, a large island off the eastern edge of the Top End region of the Northern Territory. Oedura nesos sp. nov. differs from all congeners in combination of moderate size, and aspects of tail morphology and colouration. It has not been reported from the nearby mainland regions (eastern Arnhem Land) suggesting it may be an insular endemic, although further survey work is required to confirm this. While Groote Eylandt is recognised as a contemporary ecological refuge for declining mammal species of northern Australia, newly detected endemic species suggest it may also be of significance as an evolutionary refuge for many taxa, especially those associated with sandstone escarpments.

Correction: Occupancy and detectability modelling of vertebrates in northern Australia using multiple sampling methods.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0203304.].

Occupancy and detectability modelling of vertebrates in northern Australia using multiple sampling methods.

Understanding where species occur and how difficult they are to detect during surveys is crucial for designing and evaluating monitoring programs, and has broader applications for conservation planning and management. In this study, we modelled occupancy and the effectiveness of six sampling methods at detecting vertebrates across the Top End of northern Australia. We fitted occupancy-detection models to 136 species (83 birds, 33 reptiles, 20 mammals) of 242 recorded during surveys of 333 sites in eight conservation reserves between 2011 and 2016. For modelled species, mean occupancy was highly variable: birds and reptiles ranged from 0.01-0.81 and 0.01-0.49, respectively, whereas mammal occupancy was lower, ranging from 0.02-0.30. Of the 11 environmental covariates considered as potential predictors of occupancy, topographic ruggedness, elevation, maximum temperature, and fire frequency were retained more readily in the top models. Using these models, we predicted species occupancy across the Top End of northern Australia (293,017 km2) and generated species richness maps for each species group. For mammals and reptiles, high richness was associated with rugged terrain, while bird richness was highest in coastal lowland woodlands. On average, detectability of diurnal birds was higher per day of surveys (0.33 ± 0.09) compared with nocturnal birds per night of spotlighting (0.13 ± 0.06). Detectability of reptiles was similar per day/night of pit trapping (0.30 ± 0.09) as per night of spotlighting (0.29 ± 0.11). On average, mammals were highly detectable using motion-sensor cameras for a week (0.36 ± 0.06), with exception of smaller-bodied species. One night of Elliott trapping (0.20 ± 0.06) and spotlighting (0.19 ± 0.06) was more effective at detecting mammals than cage (0.08 ± 0.03) and pit trapping (0.05 ± 0.04). Our estimates of species occupancy and detectability will help inform decisions about how best to redesign a long-running vertebrate monitoring program in the Top End of northern Australia.

Biodiversity responds to increasing climatic extremes in a biome-specific manner.

An unprecedented rate of global environmental change is predicted for the next century. The response to this change by ecosystems around the world is highly uncertain. To address this uncertainty, it is critical to understand the potential drivers and mechanisms of change in order to develop more reliable predictions. Australia's Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTERN) has brought together some of the longest running (10-60years) continuous environmental monitoring programs in the southern hemisphere. Here, we compare climatic variables recorded at five LTERN plot network sites during their period of operation and place them into the context of long-term climatic trends. Then, using our unique Australian long-term datasets (total 117 survey years across four biomes), we synthesize results from a series of case studies to test two hypotheses: 1) extreme weather events for each plot network have increased over the last decade, and; 2) trends in biodiversity will be associated with recent climate change, either directly or indirectly through climate-mediated disturbance (wildfire) responses. We examined the biodiversity responses to environmental change for evidence of non-linear behavior. In line with hypothesis 1), an increase in extreme climate events occurred within the last decade for each plot network. For hypothesis 2), climate, wildfire, or both were correlated with biodiversity responses at each plot network, but there was no evidence of non-linear change. However, the influence of climate or fire was context-specific. Biodiversity responded to recent climate change either directly or indirectly as a consequence of changes in fire regimes or climate-mediated fire responses. A national long-term monitoring framework allowed us to find contrasting species abundance or community responses to climate and disturbance across four of the major biomes of Australia, highlighting the need to establish and resource long-term monitoring programs across representative ecosystem types, which are likely to show context-specific responses.

Prevalence, genetic diversity and potential clinical impact of blood-borne and enteric protozoan parasites in native mammals from northern Australia.

A molecular survey was conducted to provide baseline information on the prevalence, genetic diversity and potential clinical impacts of blood-borne and enteric protozoans in native wild mammals from the Northern Territory (NT). A total of 209 blood and 167 faecal samples were collected from four target species; the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) and brush-tailed rabbit-rat (Conilurus penicillatus). Blood samples were screened by PCR at the 18S rRNA gene for trypanosomes, piroplasms and haemogregarines, with faecal samples tested for Cryptosporidium spp. at the 18S rRNA locus, and for Giardia spp. at the glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh) and 18S rRNA loci. The potential clinical impact was investigated by associating clinical, haematological and biochemical parameters with presence or absence of infection. Overall, 22.5% (95% CI: 17.0-28.8%) of the animals tested were positive for haemoprotozoans. Trypanosomes were found in 26.6% (95% CI: 18.7-35.7%) of the bandicoots and were identified as Trypanosoma vegrandis G6, except for one unique genotype, most similar to T. vegrandis G3 (genetic distance=7%). The prevalence of trypanosomes in possums was 23.7% (95% CI: 11.4-40.2%), and the genotypes identified clustered within the T. noyesi clade. The presence of Babesia sp. and Hepatozoon sp. was confirmed in bandicoots only, both at a prevalence of 9.7% (95% CI: 2.7-9.2%). The total prevalence of intestinal protozoan parasites observed was relatively low (3%; 95% CI: 1.0-6.9%). No evidence of clinical disease associated with protozoan parasitic infection was observed, however bandicoots positive for Trypanosoma exhibited a significantly lower packed cell volume (PCV) compared to negative bandicoots (p=0.046). To the authors' knowledge, this is the first research conducted in the NT to characterise protozoan parasites in threatened native mammals using both molecular and morphological tools; and to assess the potential clinical impacts of these agents. The absence of clear signs of major morbidity in infected animals seems to exclude a direct association between infections with these agents and possible population decline events in northern Australian native mammals. However until the cause(s) of population decline are ascertained for each individual mammal species, further studies are required. The outcome of the present investigation may be used to inform wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease programs.

Recursion to food plants by free-ranging Bornean elephant.

Plant recovery rates after herbivory are thought to be a key factor driving recursion by herbivores to sites and plants to optimise resource-use but have not been investigated as an explanation for recursion in large herbivores. We investigated the relationship between plant recovery and recursion by elephants (Elephas maximus borneensis) in the Lower Kinabatangan Wildlife Sanctuary, Sabah. We identified 182 recently eaten food plants, from 30 species, along 14 × 50 m transects and measured their recovery growth each month over nine months or until they were re-browsed by elephants. The monthly growth in leaf and branch or shoot length for each plant was used to calculate the time required (months) for each species to recover to its pre-eaten length. Elephant returned to all but two transects with 10 eaten plants, a further 26 plants died leaving 146 plants that could be re-eaten. Recursion occurred to 58% of all plants and 12 of the 30 species. Seventy-seven percent of the re-eaten plants were grasses. Recovery times to all plants varied from two to twenty months depending on the species. Recursion to all grasses coincided with plant recovery whereas recursion to most browsed plants occurred four to twelve months before they had recovered to their previous length. The small sample size of many browsed plants that received recursion and uneven plant species distribution across transects limits our ability to generalise for most browsed species but a prominent pattern in plant-scale recursion did emerge. Plant recovery time was a good predictor of time to recursion but varied as a function of growth form (grass, ginger, palm, liana and woody) and differences between sites. Time to plant recursion coincided with plant recovery time for the elephant's preferred food, grasses, and perhaps also gingers, but not the other browsed species. Elephants are bulk feeders so it is likely that they time their returns to bulk feed on these grass species when quantities have recovered sufficiently to meet their intake requirements. The implications for habitat and elephant management are discussed.

Optimisation of PCR reactions using primer chessboarding.

In-house polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays are now an integral part of the work of most diagnostic microbiological laboratories. Despite the availability of commercial reagent 'master-mixes' of some PCR reagents, the optimisation of primers still poses a significant problem. Here, we describe a simple method to assess the concentration of primer needed in single round, multiplex, nested and 'real-time' PCR procedures.

Management of cytomegalovirus infection by weekly surveillance after renal transplant: analysis of cost, rejection and renal function.

BACKGROUND: Recently published guidelines recommend anti-viral prophylaxis as the best method of preventing cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in the post-transplant period, but some authors have suggested that surveillance strategies may be as effective and less costly. The aim of the present study was to analyse the effectiveness and cost of a deferred treatment strategy using weekly CMV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) surveillance in high risk renal transplant recipients. METHODS: We used weekly surveillance for plasma CMV PCR positivity for the first 3 months in consecutive renal transplants between CMV seropositive donors and seronegative recipients, and analysed incidence of CMV infection, timing of infection, acute rejection and renal function at 1 year. RESULTS: There was evidence of CMV infection in 27/41 (65.9%) patients and of CMV disease in 20/41 (48.8%). Only 8/20 (40%) patients were PCR positive before disease onset. Patients were treated on the basis of clinical evidence of CMV disease (deferred strategy), but we used the data to compare the potential costs of a pre-emptive strategy (all patients PCR positive before the onset of clinical features of disease treated with intravenous ganciclovir) and prophylaxis (oral ganciclovir for 3 months in all patients). The deferred strategy cost pound 1159 per patient (excluding the cost of hospitalization) while a pre-emptive strategy would cost pound 1381 per patient. Prophylaxis costs pound 1500- pound 2213 per patient depending on published estimates of relative risk reduction. Mean estimated creatinine clearance at 1 year was 70.0 ml/min in patients who experienced no infection, 47.7 ml/min in patients who experienced infection but no disease, and 39.6 ml/min in patients who experienced CMV disease (P < 0.001). The incidence of acute rejection in these groups was 7.1, 14.3 and 35%, respectively (P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: CMV surveillance strategies may cost slightly less but may have a deleterious effect on long-term outcome compared with prophylaxis.