Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. METHODS: We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. FINDINGS: We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. INTERPRETATION: We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. FUNDING: NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

Outcomes in biomarker-selected subgroups from the KESTREL study of durvalumab and tremelimumab in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Selective biomarkers may improve outcomes in patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. We investigated three independent biomarkers for association with efficacy in the randomized, phase III KESTREL study (NCT02551159) of first-line durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus the EXTREME regimen: programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1) immunohistochemistry, blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB) via circulating tumor DNA, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). METHODS: Tumor or blood samples from patients enrolled in the KESTREL study were analyzed for PD-L1, bTMB, and NLR. Associations with overall survival (OS) or objective response rates (ORRs) were evaluated based on prespecified cut-offs for PD-L1 (tumor cell [TC] ≥ 50%/immune cell ≥ 25% or TC ≥ 25%), bTMB (≥ 16 mutations [mut] per megabase [Mb]), and NLR (≤ 7). Ad hoc analyses of exploratory cut-offs were performed. RESULTS: Prespecified or exploratory cut-offs for PD-L1 did not enrich for ORR or OS for durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME. In the bTMB ≥ 16 mut/Mb subgroup, OS hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for durvalumab monotherapy and durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME were 0.90 (0.48-1.72) and 0.69 (0.39-1.25), respectively. Complete response rates were 8.6% with durvalumab plus tremelimumab and 4.3% with EXTREME (≥ 16 mut/Mb subgroup). No improvement in OS was observed for durvalumab monotherapy or durvalumab plus tremelimumab versus EXTREME at prespecified or exploratory NLR cut-offs. CONCLUSIONS: bTMB demonstrated potential utility for selecting patients with R/M HNSCC who benefited from durvalumab with or without tremelimumab versus EXTREME. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02551159.

Elucidating immune-related gene transcriptional programs via factorization of large-scale RNA-profiles.

Recent developments in immunotherapy, including immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) and adoptive cell therapy (ACT), have encountered challenges such as immune-related adverse events and resistance, especially in solid tumors. To advance the field, a deeper understanding of the molecular mechanisms behind treatment responses and resistance is essential. However, the lack of functionally characterized immune-related gene sets has limited data-driven immunological research. To address this gap, we adopted non-negative matrix factorization on 83 human bulk RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) datasets and constructed 28 immune-specific gene sets. After rigorous immunologist-led manual annotations and orthogonal validations across immunological contexts and functional omics data, we demonstrated that these gene sets can be applied to refine pan-cancer immune subtypes, improve ICB response prediction and functionally annotate spatial transcriptomic data. These functional gene sets, informing diverse immune states, will advance our understanding of immunology and cancer research.

Elucidating immune-related gene transcriptional programs via factorization of large-scale RNA-profiles.

Recent developments in immunotherapy, including immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) and adoptive cell therapy, have encountered challenges such as immune-related adverse events and resistance, especially in solid tumors. To advance the field, a deeper understanding of the molecular mechanisms behind treatment responses and resistance is essential. However, the lack of functionally characterized immune-related gene sets has limited data-driven immunological research. To address this gap, we adopted non-negative matrix factorization on 83 human bulk RNA-seq datasets and constructed 28 immune-specific gene sets. After rigorous immunologist-led manual annotations and orthogonal validations across immunological contexts and functional omics data, we demonstrated that these gene sets can be applied to refine pan-cancer immune subtypes, improve ICB response prediction and functionally annotate spatial transcriptomic data. These functional gene sets, informing diverse immune states, will advance our understanding of immunology and cancer research.

Oncogenic Oral Human Papillomavirus Clearance Patterns over 10 Years.

BACKGROUND: Effective screening for oropharyngeal cancer is lacking. Four oncogenic HPV clearance definitions were explored to understand long-term natural history for persistent oncogenic oral HPV (oncHPV), the precursor of oropharyngeal cancer. METHODS: Prospective multicenter cohort of participants living with/at-risk for HIV, with oral rinse and gargle samples collected every 6 to 12 months for up to 10 years and tested for oncHPV. HPV clearance definitions included 1 (clear1), 2 (clear2), 3 (clear3) consecutive negatives, or being negative at last two visits (clearlast). RESULTS: Median time to clearance of oncHPV exceeded 2 years for conservative definitions (clear3: 2.38, clearlast: 2.43), but not lenient (clear1: 0.68, clear2: 1.15). By clear3, most incident infections cleared at 2, 5, 8 years (55.1%, 75.6%, 79.1%), contrary to prevalent infections (37.1%, 52.5%, 59.5%, respectively). In adjusted analysis, prevalent oncHPV, older age, male sex, and living with HIV were associated with reduced clearance. Of 1,833 subjects screened, 13.8% had prevalent oncHPV and 47.5% of those infections persisted ≥5 years, representing 6.5% of persons screened. Two men with prevalent oral HPV16 developed incident oropharyngeal cancer [IR = 1.62 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.41-6.4]. Many with oral HPV16 persisted ≥5 years (and/or developed HPV-oropharyngeal cancer) among those with 2 (72.2%), ≥2 of first 3 (65.7%), or 3 (80.0%) consecutive positive oHPV16 tests, but not after 1 (39.4%). CONCLUSIONS: In our 10-year study, most incident infections cleared quickly. However, half of prevalent oncHPV persisted ≥5 years, suggesting increased risk with persistent oncHPV at >2 visits. IMPACT: We identified groups with persistent oncHPV at increased risk of oropharyngeal cancer and contextualized risk levels for those with oral HPV16 infection.