The Inverse U-Shaped Religion-Health Connection Among Israeli Jews.

A growing body of evidence indicates an association between religion and health. However, few have studied the connection between the extent of an individual's religiosity and his health. Analysis of the 2004 Israel National Health Survey was performed. Religiosity was self-identified using five continuous categories, distinctive to Israeli Jews. Bivariate and multivariate analyses examined the relationship between the extent of Religious commitment and several health outcomes. The relationship took the shape of an inverse U function: Israeli Jews in the middle religiously have the worst physical and mental health status on both unadjusted and adjusted bases. Israeli Jews exhibit a non-trivial connection between religiosity and health whereby the most Secular and the most Religious individuals seem to be healthier than individuals in between.

A Welfare Measure of "Offset Effects" in Health Insurance.

Changing health insurance coverage for one service may affect use of other insured services. When improving coverage for one service reduces use of another, the savings are referred to as "offset effects." For example, costs of better coverage for prescription drugs may be partly "offset" by reductions in hospital costs. Offset effects have welfare implications but it has not been clear how to value these impacts in design of health insurance. We show that plan-paid - rather than total -- spending is the right welfare measure of the offset effect, and go on to develop a "sufficient statistic" for evaluating the welfare effects of change in coverage in the presence of multiple goods. We derive a simple rule for when a coverage improvement increases welfare due to offset effects.

Modest risk-sharing significantly reduces health plans' incentives for service distortion.

Public payers often use payment mechanisms as a way to improve the efficiency of the healthcare system. One source of inefficiency is service distortion (SD) in which health plans over/underprovide services in order to affect the mix of their enrollees. Using Israeli data, we apply a new measure of SD to show that a mixed payment scheme, with a modest level of cost-sharing, yields a significant improvement over a pure risk-adjustment scheme. This observation implies that even though mixed systems induce overprovision of some services, their benefits far outweigh their costs.

Using global ratings of health plans to improve the quality of health care.

Global ratings, such as those based on consumer satisfaction, are a commonly used form of report on the performance of health plans and providers. A simple averaging of the global rating by plan members leads to a problem: it gives a plan greater incentives to improve services used by low-cost members than services used by high-cost members. This paper presents a formal model of consumer formation of global ratings and the incentives these rating convey to plans. We use this model to characterize weights on consumer respondents to correct the incentive problem. We implement our proposed solution using data from the Consumer Assessments of Health Care Providers and Systems (CAHPS) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Our correction is low-cost, easily implemented on an on-going basis, and insensitive to assumptions about why health plans care about quality ratings.

Using performance measures to motivate 'report-averse' and 'report-loving' agents.

In designing a quality report, a health plan needs to account for the report's effect on the doctor, hospital or other provider. This paper proposes a simple model of how quality reporting affects a health care provider, using the example of a doctor subject to reporting with a "cut point" that designates the doctor as above or below some standard. Choice of cut point affects the doctor's welfare through the doctor's preferences about income and by affecting market demand for the doctor's services. These factors lead doctors to be "report-averse" or "report-loving," a determination that affects a health plan's cost to enlist a doctor in a contract with reporting and that guides choice of a cut point to maximize the doctors' effort to improve her quality.

Paying Medicare Advantage plans: To level or tilt the playing field.

Medicare beneficiaries are eligible for health insurance through the public option of traditional Medicare (TM) or may join a private Medicare Advantage (MA) plan. Both are highly subsidized but in different ways. Medicare pays for most of costs directly in TM, and subsidizes MA plans based on a "benchmark" for each beneficiary choosing a private plan. The level of this benchmark is arguably the most important policy decision Medicare makes about the MA program. Many analysts recommend equalizing Medicare's subsidy across the options - referred to in policy circles as a "level playing field." This paper studies the normative question of how to set the level of the benchmark, applying the versatile model developed by Einav and Finkelstein (EF) to Medicare. The EF framework implies unequal subsidies to counteract risk selection across plan types. We also study other reasons to tilt the field: the relative efficiency of MA vs. TM, market power of MA plans, and institutional features of the way Medicare determines subsidies and premiums. After review of the empirical and policy literature, we conclude that in areas where the MA market is competitive, the benchmark should be set below average costs in TM, but in areas characterized by imperfect competition in MA, it should be raised in order to offset output (enrollment) restrictions by plans with market power. We also recommend specific modifications of Medicare rules to make demand for MA more price elastic.

Optimal quality reporting in markets for health plans.

Quality reports about health plans and providers are becoming more prevalent in health care markets. This paper casts the decision about what information to report to consumers about health plans as a policy decision. In a market with adverse selection, complete information about quality leads to inefficient outcomes. In a Rothschild-Stiglitz model, we show that averaging quality information into a summary report can enforce pooling in health insurance, and by choice of the right weights in the averaged report, a payer or regulator can induce first-best quality choices. The optimal quality report is as powerful as optimal risk adjustment in correcting adverse selection inefficiencies.

Multiple payers, commonality and free-riding in health care: Medicare and private payers.

Managed health care plans and providers in the US and elsewhere sell their services to multiple payers. For example, the three largest groups of purchasers from health plans in the US are employers, Medicaid plans, and Medicare, with the first two accounting for over 90% of the total enrollees. In the case of hospitals, Medicare is the largest buyer, but it alone only accounts for 40% of the total payments. While payers have different objectives and use different contracting practices, the plans and providers set some elements of the quality in common for all payers. In this paper, we study the interactions between a public payer, modeled on Medicare, which sets a price and takes any willing provider, a private payer, which limits providers and pays a price on the basis of quality, and a provider/plan, in the presence of shared elements of quality. The provider compromises in response to divergent incentives from payers. The private sector dilutes Medicare payment initiatives, and may, under some circumstances, repair Medicare payment policy mistakes. If Medicare behaves strategically in the presence of private payers, it can free-ride on the private payer and set its prices too low. Our paper has many testable implications, including a new hypothesis for why Medicare has failed to gain acceptance of health plans in the US.

Making Medicare advantage a middle-class program.

This paper studies the role of Medicare's premium policy in sorting beneficiaries between traditional Medicare (TM) and managed care plans in the Medicare advantage (MA) program. Beneficiaries vary in their demand for care. TM fully accommodates demand but creates a moral hazard inefficiency. MA rations care but disregards some elements of the demand. We describe an efficient assignment of beneficiaries to these two options, and argue that efficiency requires an MA program oriented to serve the large middle part of the distribution of demand: the "middle class." Current Medicare policy of a "single premium" for MA plans cannot achieve efficient sorting. We characterize the demand-based premium policy that can implement the efficient assignment of enrollees to plans. If only a single premium is feasible, the second-best policy involves too many of the low-demand individuals in MA and a too low level of services relative to the first best. We identify approaches to using premium policy to revitalize MA and improve the efficiency of Medicare.

Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).

A Prescription for Drug Formulary Evaluation: An Application of Price Indexes.

Existing economic approaches to the design and evaluation of health insurance do not readily apply to coverage decisions in the multi-tiered drug formularies characterizing drug coverage in private health insurance and Medicare. This paper proposes a method for evaluating a change in the value of a formulary to covered members based on the economic theory of price indexes. A formulary is cast as a set of demand-side prices, and our measure approximates the compensation (positive or negative) that would need to be paid to consumers to accept the new set of prices. The measure also incorporates any effect of the formulary change on plan drug acquisition costs and "offset effects" on non-drug services covered by the plan. Data needed to calculate formulary value are known or can be forecast by a health plan. We illustrate the method with data from a move from a two- to a three-tier formulary.

Gold and silver health plans: accommodating demand heterogeneity in managed competition.

New regulation of health insurance markets creates multiple levels of health plans, with designations like "Gold" and "Silver." The underlying rationale for the heavy-metal approach to insurance regulation is that heterogeneity in demand for health care is not only due to health status (sick demand more than the healthy) but also to other, "taste" related factors (rich demand more than the poor). This paper models managed competition with demand heterogeneity to consider plan payment and enrollee premium policies in relation to efficiency (net consumer benefit) and fairness (the European concept of "solidarity"). Specifically, this paper studies how to implement a "Silver" and "Gold" health plan efficiently and fairly in a managed competition context. We show that there are sharp tradeoffs between efficiency and fairness. When health plans cannot or may not (because of regulation) base premiums on any factors affecting demand, enrollees do not choose the efficient plan. When taste (e.g., income) can be used as a basis of payment, a simple tax can achieve both efficiency and fairness. When only health status (and not taste) can be used as a basis of payment, health status-based taxes and subsidies are required and efficiency can only be achieved with a modified version of fairness we refer to as "weak solidarity." An overriding conclusion is that the regulation of premiums for both the basic and the higher level plans is necessary for efficiency.

Mitigating the Problem of Unmeasured Outcomes in Quality Reports.

Quality reports or profiles of health care providers are inevitably based on only a measurable subset of the "outputs" of the organization. Hospitals, for example, are being profiled on their mortality in the cardiac area but not in some other areas where mortality does not seem to be the appropriate measure of quality. If inputs used for outputs included in the profile also affect outputs outside the scope of the profile, it can be taken into account in constructing a profile of the measured outputs. This paper presents a theory for how such a commonality in production should be taken into account in designing a profile for a hospital or other health care provider. We distinguish between "conventional" weights in a quality profile, and "optimal" weights that take into account a commonality in the production process. The basic idea is to increase the weights on discharges for which output is measured that use inputs that are important to other discharges whose outputs are not included in the profile.