Computational, Experimental, and Clinical Evidence of a Specific but Peculiar Evolutionary Nature of (COVID-19) SARS-CoV-2.

The shell disorder models have predicted that SARS-CoV-2 is of a specific but peculiar evolutionary nature. All coronaviruses (CoVs) closely related to SARS-CoV-2 have been found to have the hardest outer shells (M protein) among CoVs. This hard shell (low M percentage of intrinsic disorder (PID)) is associated with burrowing animals, for example, pangolins, and is believed to be responsible for the high contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 because it will be more resistant to antimicrobial enzymes found in saliva/mucus. Incoming clinical and experimental data do support this along with a prediction based on another aspect of the shell (N, inner shell) disorder models that SARS-CoV-1 is more virulent than SARS-CoV-2 because SARS-CoV-2 produces fewer virus copies in vital organs even if large amounts of infections particles are shed orally and nasally. A phylogenetic study using M reveals a closer relationship of SARS-CoV to pangolin-CoVs than the bat-RaTG13 found in Yunnan, China. Previous studies may have been confused by recombinations that were poorly handled. The shell disorder models suggest that a pangolin-CoV strain may have entered the human population in 2017 or before as an attenuated virus, which could explain why SARS-CoV is found to be highly adapted to humans.

A Novel Strategy for the Development of Vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and Other Viruses Using AI and Viral Shell Disorder.

A model that predicts levels of coronavirus (CoV) respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials based on the shell disorder has been built using neural network (artificial intelligence, AI) analysis of the percentage of disorder (PID) in the nucleocapsid, N, and membrane, M, proteins of the inner and outer viral shells, respectively. Using primarily the PID of N, SARS-CoV-2 is grouped as having intermediate levels of both respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials. Related studies, using similar methodologies, have found strong positive correlations between virulence and inner shell disorder among numerous viruses, including Nipah, Ebola, and Dengue viruses. There is some evidence that this is also true for SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have N PIDs of 48% and 50%, and case-fatality rates of 0.5-5% and 10.9%, respectively. The underlying relationship between virulence and respiratory potentials has to do with the viral loads of vital organs and body fluids, respectively. Viruses can spread by respiratory means only if the viral loads in saliva and mucus exceed certain minima. Similarly, a patient is likelier to die when the viral load overwhelms vital organs. Greater disorder in inner shell proteins has been known to play important roles in the rapid replication of viruses by enhancing the efficiency pertaining to protein-protein/DNA/RNA/lipid bindings. This paper suggests a novel strategy in attenuating viruses involving comparison of disorder patterns of inner shells (N) of related viruses to identify residues and regions that could be ideal for mutation. The M protein of SARS-CoV-2 has one of the lowest M PID values (6%) in its family, and therefore, this virus has one of the hardest outer shells, which makes it resistant to antimicrobial enzymes in body fluid. While this is likely responsible for its greater contagiousness, the risks of creating an attenuated virus with a more disordered M are discussed.

Shell Disorder Analysis Suggests That Pangolins Offered a Window for a Silent Spread of an Attenuated SARS-CoV-2 Precursor among Humans.

A model to predict the relative levels of respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials of coronaviruses (CoVs) by measuring the percentage of protein intrinsic disorder (PID) of the M (Membrane) and N (Nucleoprotein) proteins in their outer and inner shells, respectively, was built before the MERS-CoV outbreak. With MPID = 8.6% and NPID = 50.2%, the 2003 SARS-CoV falls into group B, which consists of CoVs with intermediate levels of both fecal-oral and respiratory transmission potentials. Further validation of the model came with MERS-CoV (MPID = 9%, NPID = 44%) and SARS-CoV-2 (MPID = 5.5%, NPID = 48%) falling into the groups C and B, respectively. Group C contains CoVs with higher fecal-oral but lower respiratory transmission potentials. Unlike SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 with MPID = 5.5% has one of the hardest outer shells among CoVs. Because the hard shell is able to resist the antimicrobial enzymes in body fluids, the infected person is able to shed large quantities of viral particles via saliva and mucus, which could account for the higher contagiousness of SARS-COV-2. Further searches have found that high rigidity of the outer shell is characteristic for the CoVs of burrowing animals, such as rabbits (MPID = 5.6%) and pangolins (MPID = 5-6%), which are in contact with the buried feces. A closer inspection of pangolin-CoVs from 2017 to 2019 reveals that pangolins provided a unique window of opportunity for the entry of an attenuated SARS-CoV-2 precursor into the human population in 2017 or earlier, with the subsequent slow and silent spread as a mild cold that followed by its mutations into the current more virulent form. Evidence of this lies in both the genetic proximity of the pangolin-CoVs to SARS-CoV-2 (∼90%) and differences in N disorder. A 2017 pangolin-CoV strain shows evidence of higher levels of attenuation and higher fecal-oral transmission associated with lower human infectivity via having lower NPID (44.8%). Our shell disorder model predicts this to be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine strain, as lower inner shell disorder is associated with the lesser virulence in a variety of viruses.

Shell disorder analysis predicts greater resilience of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) outside the body and in body fluids.

The coronavirus (CoV) family consists of viruses that infects a variety of animals including humans with various levels of respiratory and fecal-oral transmission levels depending on the behavior of the viruses' natural hosts and optimal viral fitness. A model to classify and predict the levels of respective respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials of the various viruses was built before the outbreak of MERS-CoV using AI and empirically-based molecular tools to predict the disorder level of proteins. Using the percentages of intrinsic disorder (PID) of the nucleocapsid (N) and membrane (M) proteins of CoV, the model easily clustered the viruses into three groups with the SARS-CoV (M PID = 8%, N PID = 50%) falling into Category B, in which viruses have intermediate levels of both respiratory and fecal-oral transmission potentials. Later, MERS-CoV (M PID = 9%, N PID = 44%) was found to be in Category C, which consists of viruses with lower respiratory transmission potential but with higher fecal-oral transmission capabilities. Based on the peculiarities of disorder distribution, the SARS-CoV-2 (M PID = 6%, N PID = 48%) has to be placed in Category B. Our data show however, that the SARS-CoV-2 is very strange with one of the hardest protective outer shell, (M PID = 6%) among coronaviruses. This means that it might be expected to be highly resilient in saliva or other body fluids and outside the body. An infected body is likelier to shed greater numbers of viral particles since the latter is more resistant to antimicrobial enzymes in body fluids. These particles are also likelier to remain active longer. These factors could account for the greater contagiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 and have implications for efforts to prevent its spread.

Nipah shell disorder, modes of infection, and virulence.

The Nipah Virus (NiV) was first isolated during a 1998-9 outbreak in Malaysia. The outbreak initially infected farm pigs and then moved to humans from pigs with a case-fatality rate (CFR) of about 40%. After 2001, regular outbreaks occurred with higher CFRs (~71%, 2001-5, ~93%, 2008-12). The spread arose from drinking virus-laden palm date sap and human-to-human transmission. Intrinsic disorder analysis revealed strong correlation between the percentage of disorder in the N protein and CFR (Regression: r2 = 0.93, p < 0.01, ANOVA: p < 0.01). Distinct disorder and, therefore, genetic differences can be found in all three group of strains. The fact that the transmission modes of the Malaysia strain are different from those of the Bangladesh strains suggests that the correlations may also be linked to the modes of viral transmission. Analysis of the NiV and related viruses suggests links between modes of transmission and disorder of not just the N protein but, also, of M shell protein. The links among shell disorder, transmission modes, and virulence suggest mechanisms by which viruses are attenuated as they passed through different cell hosts from different animal species. These have implications for development of vaccines and epidemiological molecular analytical tools to contain outbreaks.

Shell disorder and the HIV vaccine mystery: lessons from the legendary Oswald Avery.

The search for a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine has spanned nearly four decades without much success. A much needed paradigm shift can be found in the abnormally high levels of intrinsic disorder in the outer shells of HIVs, the hepatitis C virus (HCV), and herpes simplex viruses (HSVs), for which successful vaccines have not been established. On the other hand, this feature (high levels of intrinsic disorder in the outer shells) is completely absent in classic viruses for which effective vaccines are found, such as the rabies virus. The motions arising from the disordered outer shell result in the inability of antibodies to bind tightly to the polysaccharides on the viral surface proteins, and, therefore, induce inadequate immune response. Experiments conducted by the legendary Avery Oswald in the 1920s form the theoretical underpinning of this new model. Failures of the vaccines based on the HIV glycoprotein Gp120 and other vaccines can be traced back to the lack of understanding of the important roles of shell disorder in a "Trojan-horse" immune evasion mechanism utilized by the virus.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Shell Disorder Models Detect That Omicron Has Harder Shells with Attenuation but Is Not a Descendant of the Wuhan-Hu-1 SARS-CoV-2.

Before the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence, shell disorder models (SDM) suggested that an attenuated precursor from pangolins may have entered humans in 2017 or earlier. This was based on a shell disorder analysis of SARS-CoV-1/2 and pangolin-Cov-2017. The SDM suggests that Omicron is attenuated with almost identical N (inner shell) disorder as pangolin-CoV-2017 (N-PID (percentage of intrinsic disorder): 44.8% vs. 44.9%-lower than other variants). The outer shell disorder (M-PID) of Omicron is lower than that of other variants and pangolin-CoV-2017 (5.4% vs. 5.9%). COVID-19-related CoVs have the lowest M-PIDs (hardest outer shell) among all CoVs. This is likely to be responsible for the higher contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron, since hard outer shell protects the virion from salivary/mucosal antimicrobial enzymes. Phylogenetic study using M reveals that Omicron branched off from an ancestor of the Wuhan-Hu-1 strain closely related to pangolin-CoVs. M, being evolutionarily conserved in COVID-19, is most ideal for COVID-19 phylogenetic study. Omicron may have been hiding among burrowing animals (e.g., pangolins) that provide optimal evolutionary environments for attenuation and increase shell hardness, which is essential for fecal-oral-respiratory transmission via buried feces. Incoming data support SDM e.g., the presence of fewer infectious particles in the lungs than in the bronchi upon infection.

A Study on the Nature of SARS-CoV-2 Using the Shell Disorder Models: Reproducibility, Evolution, Spread, and Attenuation.

The basic tenets of the shell disorder model (SDM) as applied to COVID-19 are that the harder outer shell of the virus shell (lower PID-percentage of intrinsic disorder-of the membrane protein M, PIDM) and higher flexibility of the inner shell (higher PID of the nucleocapsid protein N, PIDN) are correlated with the contagiousness and virulence, respectively. M protects the virion from the anti-microbial enzymes in the saliva and mucus. N disorder is associated with the rapid replication of the virus. SDM predictions are supported by two experimental observations. The first observation demonstrated lesser and greater presence of the Omicron particles in the lungs and bronchial tissues, respectively, as there is a greater level of mucus in the bronchi. The other observation revealed that there are lower viral loads in 2017-pangolin-CoV, which is predicted to have similarly low PIDN as Omicron. The abnormally hard M, which is very rarely seen in coronaviruses, arose from the fecal-oral behaviors of pangolins via exposure to buried feces. Pangolins provide an environment for coronavirus (CoV) attenuation, which is seen in Omicron. Phylogenetic study using M shows that COVID-19-related bat-CoVs from Laos and Omicron are clustered in close proximity to pangolin-CoVs, which suggests the recurrence of interspecies transmissions. Hard M may have implications for long COVID-19, with immune systems having difficulty degrading viral proteins/particles.

Feasibility of the vaccine development for SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses using the shell disorder analysis.

Several related viral shell disorder (disorder of shell proteins of viruses) models were built using a disorder predictor via AI. The parent model detected the presence of high levels of disorder at the outer shell in viruses, for which vaccines are not available. Another model found correlations between inner shell disorder and viral virulence. A third model was able to positively correlate the levels of respiratory transmission of coronaviruses (CoVs). These models are linked together by the fact that they have uncovered two novel immune evading strategies employed by the various viruses. The first involve the use of highly disordered "shape-shifting" outer shell to prevent antibodies from binding tightly to the virus thus leading to vaccine failure. The second usually involves a more disordered inner shell that provides for more efficient binding in the rapid replication of viral particles before any host immune response. This "Trojan horse" immune evasion often backfires on the virus, when the viral load becomes too great at a vital organ, which leads to death of the host. Just as such virulence entails the viral load to exceed at a vital organ, a minimal viral load in the saliva/mucus is necessary for respiratory transmission to be feasible. As for the SARS-CoV-2, no high levels of disorder can be detected at the outer shell membrane (M) protein, but some evidence of correlation between virulence and inner shell (nucleocapsid, N) disorder has been observed. This suggests that not only the development of vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, unlike HIV, HSV and HCV, is feasible but its attenuated vaccine strain can either be found in nature or generated by genetically modifying N.

Rigidity of the Outer Shell Predicted by a Protein Intrinsic Disorder Model Sheds Light on the COVID-19 (Wuhan-2019-nCoV) Infectivity.

The world is currently witnessing an outbreak of a new coronavirus spreading quickly across China and affecting at least 24 other countries. With almost 65,000 infected, a worldwide death toll of at least 1370 (as of 14 February 2020), and with the potential to affect up to two-thirds of the world population, COVID-19 is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be a global health emergency. The speed of spread and infectivity of COVID-19 (also known as Wuhan-2019-nCoV) are dramatically exceeding those of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). In fact, since September 2012, the WHO has been notified of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, whereas the 2002-2003 epidemic of SARS affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8000 cases. Therefore, although SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 are all the result of coronaviral infections, the causes of the coronaviruses differ dramatically in their transmissibility. It is likely that these differences in infectivity of coronaviruses can be attributed to the differences in the rigidity of their shells which can be evaluated using computational tools for predicting intrinsic disorder predisposition of the corresponding viral proteins.

Protein intrinsic disorder and influenza virulence: the 1918 H1N1 and H5N1 viruses.

BACKGROUND: The 1918 H1N1 virus was a highly virulent strain that killed 20-50 million people. The cause of its virulence remains poorly understood. METHODS: Intrinsic disorder predictor PONDR VLXT was used to compare various influenza subtypes and strains. Three-dimensional models using data from X-ray crystallographic studies annotated with disorder prediction were used to characterize the proteins. RESULTS: The protein of interest is hemagglutin (HA), which is a surface glycoprotein that plays a vital role in viral entry. Distinct differences between HA proteins of the virulent and non-virulent strains are seen, especially in the region near residues 68-79 of the HA2. This region represents the tip of the stalk that is in contact with the receptor chain, HA1, and therefore likely to provide the greatest effect on the motions of the exposed portion of HA. Comparison of this region between virulent strains (1918 H1N1 and H5N1) and less virulent ones (H3N2 and 1930 H1N1) reveals that predicted disorder can be seen at this region among the more virulent strains and subtypes but is remarkably absent among the distinctly less virulent ones. CONCLUSION: The motions created by disorder at crucial regions are likely to impair recognition by immunological molecules and increase the virulence of both the H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 viruses. The results help explain many puzzling features of the H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 viruses. Summarizing, HA (and especially its intrinsically disordered regions) can serve as a predictor of the influenza A virulence, even though there may be other proteins that contribute to or exacerbate the virulence.

Zika and Flavivirus Shell Disorder: Virulence and Fetal Morbidity.

Zika virus (ZIKV) was first discovered in 1947 in Africa. Since then, sporadic ZIKV infections of humans have been reported in Africa and Asia. For a long time, this virus was mostly unnoticed due to its mild symptoms and low fatality rates. However, during the 2015-2016 epidemic in Central and South America, when millions of people were infected, it was discovered that ZIKV causes microcephaly in the babies of mothers infected during pregnancy. An examination of the M and C proteins of the ZIKV shell using the disorder predictor PONDR VLXT revealed that the M protein contains relatively high disorder levels comparable only to those of the yellow fever virus (YFV). On the other hand, the disorder levels in the C protein are relatively low, which can account for the low case fatality rate (CFR) of this virus in contrast to the more virulent YFV, which is characterized by high disorder in its C protein. A larger variation was found in the percentage of intrinsic disorder (PID) in the C protein of various ZIKV strains. Strains of African lineage are characterized by higher PIDs. Using both in vivo and in vitro experiments, laboratories have also previously shown that strains of African origin have a greater potential to inflict higher fetal morbidity than do strains of Asian lineage, with dengue-2 virus (DENV-2) having the least potential. Strong correlations were found between the potential to inflict fetal morbidity and shell disorder in ZIKV (r2 = 0.9) and DENV-2 (DENV-2 + ZIKV, r2 = 0.8). A strong correlation between CFR and PID was also observed when ZIKV was included in an analysis of sets of shell proteins from a variety of flaviviruses (r2 = 0.8). These observations have potential implications for antiviral vaccine development and for the design of cancer therapeutics in terms of developing therapeutic viruses that penetrate hard-to-reach organs.

HIV Vaccine Mystery and Viral Shell Disorder.

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent for over three decades in the search for an effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccine with no success. There are also at least two other sexually transmitted viruses, for which no vaccine is available, the herpes simplex virus (HSV) and the hepatitis C virus (HCV). Traditional textbook explanatory paradigm of rapid mutation of retroviruses cannot adequately address the unavailability of vaccine for many sexually transmissible viruses, since HSV and HCV are DNA and non-retroviral RNA viruses, respectively, whereas effective vaccine for the horsefly-transmitted retroviral cousin of HIV, equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV), was found in 1973. We reported earlier the highly disordered nature of proteins in outer shells of the HIV, HCV, and HSV. Such levels of disorder are completely absent among the classical viruses, such as smallpox, rabies, yellow fever, and polio viruses, for which efficient vaccines were discovered. This review analyzes the physiology and shell disorder of the various related and non-related viruses to argue that EIAV and the classical viruses need harder shells to survive during harsher conditions of non-sexual transmissions, thus making them vulnerable to antibody detection and neutralization. In contrast, the outer shell of the HIV-1 (with its preferential sexual transmission) is highly disordered, thereby allowing large scale motions of its surface glycoproteins and making it difficult for antibodies to bind to them. The theoretical underpinning of this concept is retrospectively traced to a classical 1920s experiment by the legendary scientist, Oswald Avery. This concept of viral shapeshifting has implications for improved treatment of cancer and infections via immune evasion.

Protein intrinsic disorder toolbox for comparative analysis of viral proteins.

To examine the usefulness of protein disorder predictions as a tool for the comparative analysis of viral proteins, a relational database has been constructed. The database includes proteins from influenza A and HIV-related viruses. Annotations include viral protein sequence, disorder prediction, structure, and function. Location of each protein within a virion, if known, is also denoted. Our analysis reveals a clear relationship between proximity to the RNA core and the percentage of predicted disordered residues for a set of influenza A virus proteins. Neuraminidases (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) of major influenza A pandemics tend to pair in such a way that both proteins tend to be either ordered-ordered or disordered-disordered by prediction. This may be the result of these proteins evolving from being lipid-associated. High abundance of intrinsic disorder in envelope and matrix proteins from HIV-related viruses likely represents a mechanism where HIV virions can escape immune response despite the availability of antibodies for the HIV-related proteins. This exercise provides an example showing how the combined use of intrinsic disorder predictions and relational databases provides an improved understanding of the functional and structural behaviour of viral proteins.

A comparative analysis of viral matrix proteins using disorder predictors.

BACKGROUND: A previous study (Goh G.K.-M., Dunker A.K., Uversky V.N. (2008) Protein intrinsic disorder toolbox for comparative analysis of viral proteins. BMC Genomics. 9 (Suppl. 2), S4) revealed that HIV matrix protein p17 possesses especially high levels of predicted intrinsic disorder (PID). In this study, we analyzed the PID patterns in matrix proteins of viruses related and unrelated to HIV-1. RESULTS: Both SIVmac and HIV-1 p17 proteins were predicted by PONDR VLXT to be highly disordered with subtle differences containing 50% and 60% disordered residues, respectively. SIVmac is very closely related to HIV-2. A specific region that is predicted to be disordered in HIV-1 is missing in SIVmac. The distributions of PID patterns seem to differ in SIVmac and HIV-1 p17 proteins. A high level of PID for the matrix does not seem to be mandatory for retroviruses, since Equine Infectious Anemia Virus (EIAV), an HIV cousin, has been predicted to have low PID level for the matrix; i.e. its matrix protein p15 contains only 21% PID residues. Surprisingly, the PID percentage and the pattern of predicted disorder distribution for p15 resemble those of the influenza matrix protein M1 (25%). CONCLUSION: Our data might have important implications in the search for HIV vaccines since disorder in the matrix protein might provide a mechanism for immune evasion.

Correlating Flavivirus virulence and levels of intrinsic disorder in shell proteins: protective roles vs. immune evasion.

Computational analyses revealed correlations between the intrinsic disorder propensity of shell proteins and case fatality rates (CFRs) among Flaviviruses and within at least two Flavivirus species, such as tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and dengue virus (DENV). The shell proteins analyzed in this study are capsid (C) and membrane (PrM, Pr, and M) proteins. The highest correlations can be found when regression analyses were conducted using Pr (Flavivirus: r(2) = 0.78, p < 0.01) or M (Flavivirus: r(2) = 0.91, p < 0.01) as an independent variable with C and CFR as co-explanatory and dependent variables, respectively. Interestingly, while predicted intrinsic disorder levels (PIDs) of both C and M are positively correlated with the virulence, the PIDs of Pr and CFR are negatively correlated. This is likely due to the fact that the Pr portion of PrM plays various roles in protecting the virion from damage, whereas M and C are assisted by greater potential in binding promiscuity as a result of greater disorder. The C protein of yellow fever virus (YFV), which is the most virulent virus in the sample, has the highest PID levels, whereas the second most virulent TBEV FE subtype has the second highest PID score due to its C protein, and the least virulent West Nile virus (WNV) has the least disordered C protein. This knowledge can be used while working on the development and identification of attenuated strains for vaccine. Curiously, unlike Flaviviruses, a disordered outer shell was described for hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and human simplex virus 2 (HSV-2), which currently have no effective vaccine.

Shell disorder, immune evasion and transmission behaviors among human and animal retroviruses.

This study involves measurements of percentages of intrinsic disorder (PIDs) in the GAG protein shells of various retroviruses. Unique patterns of shell protein disorder can be seen especially when GAG proteins (matrix M, capsid C, and nucleocapsid N) of primate and non-primate retroviruses are compared. HIV-1 presents the most unique pattern of disorder distribution with generally high levels of disorder in all three proteins, while EIAV (PIDs:: 26, 29, 13) is diametrically different from HIV-1 (N C M PIDs: 39.5 ± 3.0, 44.5 ± 2.6, 56.5 ± 10.8). The HTLV viruses (CPID: 32.8 ± 3.4) resemble HIV-2 (C PID: 26.6 ± 2.9) with a moderately disordered capsid. Totally distinct patterns, however, are seen for the non-primate retroviruses. They generally have highly disordered nucleocapsids (PID > 65%) and more ordered outer shells especially the matrix. These characteristics might be attributed to the differences in the way the retroviruses are transmitted, with non-primate viruses having greater non-sexual transmission components such as oral-fecal transmission. These differences are also evolutionarily related to the ways the viruses evade the host immune systems, and thus, have implications for oncolytic virotherapy and animal models in vaccine research. The importance of protein shell disorder in immune evasion, as related to the case of HIV-1, and the difficult search for its vaccines are highlighted.

Detection of links between Ebola nucleocapsid and virulence using disorder analysis.

The underlying reasons for the differences in the virulence of various types of Ebola virus (EBOV) remain unknown. Comparison of the percentage of disorder (PID) in nucleocapsid proteins VP30 and NP reveals high correlation between nucleocapsid PIDs and the case-fatality rates of EBOV. The higher disorder of these proteins is likely to be needed for more efficient multiplication of virus copies via more efficient viral RNA transcription and more promiscuous protein binding potential. This is important for the more efficient assistance of nucleocapsid in viral particle budding and of the assembly and mobility of viral proteins across the host membrane and within the cytoplasm. A more comprehensive knowledge of the molecular mechanisms of EBOV virulence would also lead to new and more effective strategies in vaccine development.

Prediction of Intrinsic Disorder in MERS-CoV/HCoV-EMC Supports a High Oral-Fecal Transmission.

A novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV (NCoV, HCoV-EMC/2012), originating from the Middle-East, has been discovered. Incoming data reveal that the virus is highly virulent to humans. A model that categorizes coronaviuses according to the hardness of their shells was developed before the discovery of MERS-CoV. Using protein intrinsic disorder prediction, coronaviruses were categorized into three groups that can be linked to the levels of oral-fecal and respiratory transmission regardless of genetic proximity. Using this model, MERS-CoV is placed into disorder group C, which consists of coronaviruses that have relatively hard inner and outer shells. The members of this group are likely to persist in the environment for a longer period of time and possess the highest oral-fecal components but relatively low respiratory transmission components. Oral-urine and saliva transmission are also highly possible since both require harder protective shells. Results show that disorder prediction can be used as a tool that suggests clues to look for in further epidemiological investigations.

Understanding Viral Transmission Behavior via Protein Intrinsic Disorder Prediction: Coronaviruses.

Besides being a common threat to farm animals and poultry, coronavirus (CoV) was responsible for the human severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2002-4. However, many aspects of CoV behavior, including modes of its transmission, are yet to be fully understood. We show that the amount and the peculiarities of distribution of the protein intrinsic disorder in the viral shell can be used for the efficient analysis of the behavior and transmission modes of CoV. The proposed model allows categorization of the various CoVs by the peculiarities of disorder distribution in their membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N). This categorization enables quick identification of viruses with similar behaviors in transmission, regardless of genetic proximity. Based on this analysis, an empirical model for predicting the viral transmission behavior is developed. This model is able to explain some behavioral aspects of important coronaviruses that previously were not fully understood. The new predictor can be a useful tool for better epidemiological, clinical, and structural understanding of behavior of both newly emerging viruses and viruses that have been known for a long time. A potentially new vaccine strategy could involve searches for viral strains that are characterized by the evolutionary misfit between the peculiarities of the disorder distribution in their shells and their behavior.