Deportations and departures: Undocumented Mexican immigrants' return migration during three presidential administrations.

This study examines changes in the sociodemographic patterns of deportation and voluntary return of undocumented immigrants from the United States to Mexico during three US presidential administrations (2001 to 2019) with different immigration policies. Most previous studies examining these migration flows for the United States as a whole have relied exclusively on counts of deportees and returnees, thereby ignoring changes over the past 20 y in the characteristics of the undocumented population itself, i.e., the population at risk of deportation or voluntary return. We estimate Poisson models based on two data sources that permit us to compare changes in the sex, age, education, and marital status distributions of both deportees and voluntary return migrants with the corresponding changes in the undocumented population during the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations: the Migration Survey on the Borders of Mexico-North (Encuesta sobre Migración en las Fronteras de México-Norte) for counts of deportees and voluntary return migrants and the Current Population Survey's Annual Social and Economic Supplement for estimated counts of the undocumented population living in the United States. We find that whereas disparities by sociodemographic characteristics in the likelihood of deportation generally increased beginning in Obama's first term, sociodemographic disparities in the likelihood of voluntary return generally decreased over this period. Despite heightened antiimmigrant rhetoric during the Trump administration, the changes in deportation and voluntary return migration to Mexico among the undocumented during Trump's term were part of a trend that began early in the Obama administration.

Life expectancy among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic: estimates, uncertainty, and obstacles.

Few reliable estimates have been available for assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among Native Americans. Using deidentified publicly available data on deaths and populations by age, we estimated life expectancy for the years 2019-2022 for single-race non-Hispanic Native Americans. Life expectancy in 2022 was 67.8 years, 2.3 years higher than in 2021 but a huge 4-year loss from 2019. Although our life expectancy estimates for 2022 varied under different assumptions about racial/ethnic classification and age misreporting errors, all estimates were lower than the average for middle-income countries. Estimates of losses and gains in life expectancy were consistent across assumptions. Large reductions in COVID-19 death rates between 2021 and 2022 were largely offset by increases in rates of death from unintentional injuries (particularly drug overdoses), chronic liver disease, diabetes, and heart disease, underscoring the difficulties facing Native Americans in achieving reductions in mortality, let alone returning to levels of mortality prior to the pandemic. Serious data problems have persisted for many years, but the scarcity and inadequacy of estimates during the pandemic have underscored the urgent need for timely and accurate demographic data on the Native American population.

Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations.

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths-one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black-White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Life expectancy loss among Native Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: There has been little systematic research on the mortality impact of COVID-19 in the Native American population. OBJECTIVE: We provide estimates of loss of life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 for the Native American population. METHODS: We use data on age-specific all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER and the 2019 life table recently released by the National Vital Statistics System for Native Americans to calculate life tables for the Native American population in 2020 and 2021 and to obtain estimates of life expectancy reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic has set Native Americans further behind other major racial/ethnic groups in terms of life expectancy. The estimated loss in life expectancy at birth for Native Americans is 4.5 years in 2020 and 6.4 years in 2021 relative to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: These results underscore the disproportionate share of deaths experienced by Native Americans: a loss in life expectancy at birth in 2020 that is more than three years above that for Whites and about 1.5 years above the losses for the Black and Latino populations. Despite a successful vaccination campaign among Native Americans, the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth in 2021 unexpectedly exceeds that in 2020. CONTRIBUTION: The increased loss in life expectancy in 2021, despite higher vaccination rates than in other racial/ethnic groups, highlights the huge challenges faced by Native Americans in their efforts to control the deleterious consequences of the pandemic.

Declining mental health among disadvantaged Americans.

Although there is little dispute about the impact of the US opioid epidemic on recent mortality, there is less consensus about whether trends reflect increasing despair among American adults. The issue is complicated by the absence of established scales or definitions of despair as well as a paucity of studies examining changes in psychological health, especially well-being, since the 1990s. We contribute evidence using two cross-sectional waves of the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) study to assess changes in measures of psychological distress and well-being. These measures capture negative emotions such as sadness, hopelessness, and worthlessness, and positive emotions such as happiness, fulfillment, and life satisfaction. Most of the measures reveal increasing distress and decreasing well-being across the age span for those of low relative socioeconomic position, in contrast to little decline or modest improvement for persons of high relative position.

Intergenerational Change in Birthweight: Effects of Foreign-born Status and Race/Ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: Foreign-born women have heavier infants than US-born women, but it is unclear whether this advantage persists across generations for all races and ethnicities. METHODS: Using 1971-2015 Florida birth records, we linked records of female infants within families to assess intergenerational changes in birthweight and prevalence of low birthweight by grandmother's race/ethnicity and foreign-born status. We also assessed educational gradients in low birthweight in two generations. RESULTS: Compared with daughters of US-born black women, daughters of foreign-born black women had substantially higher birthweights (3,199 vs. 3,083 g) and lower prevalence of low birthweight (7.8% vs. 11.8%). Daughters of foreign-born Hispanic women had moderately higher birthweights (3,322 vs. 3,268 grams) and lower prevalence of low birthweight (4.5% vs. 6.2%) than daughters of US-born Hispanic women. In the next generation, a Hispanic foreign-origin advantage persisted in low birthweight prevalence (6.1% vs. 7.2%), but the corresponding black foreign-origin advantage was almost eliminated (12.2% vs. 13.1%). Findings were robust to adjustment for sociodemographic and medical risk factors. In contrast to patterns for other women, the prevalence of low birthweight varied little by maternal education for foreign-born black women. However, a gradient emerged among their US-born daughters. CONCLUSIONS: The convergence of birthweight between descendants of foreign-born and US-born black women is consistent with theories positing that lifetime exposure to discrimination and socioeconomic inequality is associated with adverse health outcomes for black women. The emergence of a distinct educational gradient in low birthweight prevalence between generations underscores hypothesized adverse effects of multiple dimensions of disadvantage.

Calloused hands, shorter life? Occupation and older-age survival in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Inequalities in mortality are often attributed to socioeconomic differences in education level, income, and wealth. Low socioeconomic status (SES) is generally related to worse health and survival across the life course. Yet, disadvantaged people are also more likely to hold jobs requiring heavy physical labor, repetitive movement, ergonomic strain, and safety hazards. OBJECTIVE: We examine the link between primary lifetime occupation, together with education and net worth, on survival among older adults in Mexico. METHODS: We use data from four waves (2001, 2003, 2012, and 2015) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). We estimate age-specific mortality rates for ages 50 and over using a hazards model based on a two-parameter Gompertz function. RESULTS: Primary lifetime occupations have a stronger association with survival for women than men. Women with higher socioeconomic status have significantly lower mortality rates than lower status women, whether SES is assessed in terms of schooling, wealth, or occupation. Occupational categories are not jointly related to survival among men, even without controls for education and wealth. There are significant survival differences by wealth among men, but no disparities in mortality by education. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with recent studies of the Mexican population, we fail to find the expected gradient in the association between some measures of SES and better survival among men. CONTRIBUTION: Our estimates extend this anomalous pattern among Mexican men to another dimension of SES, occupation. SES differentials in mortality are substantially larger for Mexican women, highlighting an important gender disparity.

The effect of adult children living in the United States on the likelihood of cognitive impairment for older parents living in Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: The increased risk for poor physical and mental health outcomes for older parents in Mexico who have an adult child living in the United States may contribute to an increased risk for cognitive impairment in this population. The objective of this study was to examine if older adults in Mexico who have one or more adult children living in the United States are more or less likely to develop cognitive impairment over an 11-year period compared to older adults who do not have any adult children living in the United States. DESIGN: Data for this study came from Wave I (2001) and Wave III (2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study. The final sample included 2609 participants aged 60 and over who were not cognitively impaired in 2001 and had one or more adult children (age ≥15). Participants were matched using a propensity score that was estimated with a multivariable logistic regression model that included sociodemographic characteristics and migration history of the older parents. RESULTS: Having one or more adult children living in the United States is associated with lower socioeconomic status and higher number of depressive symptoms, but greater social engagement for older parents living in Mexico. No significant differences in the odds for developing cognitive impairment according to having one or more adult children living in the United States were detected. CONCLUSION: In summary, having one or more adult children living in the United States was associated with characteristics that may increase and decrease the risk for cognitive impairment. This may contribute to the non-significant relationship between migration status of adult children and likelihood for cognitive impairment for older parents living in Mexico.

Return Migration to Mexico: Does Health Matter?

We use data from three rounds of the Mexican Family Life Survey to examine whether migrants in the United States returning to Mexico in the period 2005-2012 have worse health than those remaining in the United States. Despite extensive interest by demographers in health-related selection, this has been a neglected area of study in the literature on U.S.-Mexico migration, and the few results to date have been contradictory and inconclusive. Using five self-reported health variables collected while migrants resided in the United States and subsequent migration history, we find direct evidence of higher probabilities of return migration for Mexican migrants in poor health as well as lower probabilities of return for migrants with improving health. These findings are robust to the inclusion of potential confounders reflecting the migrants' demographic characteristics, economic situation, family ties, and origin and destination characteristics. We anticipate that in the coming decade, health may become an even more salient issue in migrants' decisions about returning to Mexico, given the recent expansion in access to health insurance in Mexico.

Disease and weight loss: a prospective study of middle-aged and older adults in Costa Rica and England.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether disease predicts weight loss in population-based studies, as this may confound the relationship between weight and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used longitudinal data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study (CRELES) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We defined two overlapping outcomes of measured weight loss between waves: >1.0 point of body mass index (BMI) and >2.0 BMI points. Logistic regression models estimated the associations with disease, adjusting for age (range 52-79), sex, smoking, and initial BMI. RESULTS: In ELSA, onset of diabetes, cancer, or lung disease is associated with loss >2.0 points (respectively, OR=2.25 [95%CI: 1.34-3.80]; OR=2.70 [95%CI: 1.49-4.89]; OR=1.82 [95%CI: 1.02-3.26]). In CRELES, disease-onset reports are not associated with weight loss at 5% significance, but statistical power to detect associations is poor. CONCLUSION: Although it is known that some diseases cause weight loss, at the population level these associations vary considerably across samples.

Performance-based measures of physical function as mortality predictors: Incremental value beyond self-reports.

BACKGROUND: Although previous studies have indicated that performance assessments strongly predict future survival, few have evaluated the incremental value in the presence of controls for self-reported activity and mobility limitations. OBJECTIVE: We assess and compare the added value of four tests - walking speed, chair stands, grip strength, and peak expiratory flow (PEF) - for predicting all-cause mortality. METHODS: Using population-based samples of older adults in Costa Rica (n = 2290, aged 60+) and Taiwan (n = 1219, aged 53+), we estimate proportional hazards models of mortality for an approximate five-year period. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves are used to assess the prognostic value of each performance assessment. RESULTS: Self-reported measures of physical limitations contribute substantial gains in mortality prediction, whereas performance-based assessments yield modest incremental gains. PEF provides the greatest added value, followed by grip strength. Our results suggest that including more than two performance assessments may provide little improvement in mortality prediction. CONCLUSIONS: PEF and grip strength are often simpler to administer in home interview settings, impose less of a burden on some respondents, and, in the presence of self-reported limitations, appear to be better predictors of mortality than do walking speed or chair stands. COMMENTS: Being unable to perform the test is often a strong predictor of mortality, but these indicators are not well-defined. Exclusion rates vary by the specific task and are likely to depend on the underlying demographic, health, social and cultural characteristics of the sample.

Microbial-mammalian cometabolites dominate the age-associated urinary metabolic phenotype in Taiwanese and American populations.

Understanding the metabolic processes associated with aging is key to developing effective management and treatment strategies for age-related diseases. We investigated the metabolic profiles associated with age in a Taiwanese and an American population. ¹H NMR spectral profiles were generated for urine specimens collected from the Taiwanese Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (SEBAS; n = 857; age 54-91 years) and the Mid-Life in the USA study (MIDUS II; n = 1148; age 35-86 years). Multivariate and univariate linear projection methods revealed some common age-related characteristics in urinary metabolite profiles in the American and Taiwanese populations, as well as some distinctive features. In both cases, two metabolites--4-cresyl sulfate (4CS) and phenylacetylglutamine (PAG)--were positively associated with age. In addition, creatine and ß-hydroxy-ß-methylbutyrate (HMB) were negatively correlated with age in both populations (p < 4 × 10⁻6). These age-associated gradients in creatine and HMB reflect decreasing muscle mass with age. The systematic increase in PAG and 4CS was confirmed using ultraperformance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS). Both are products of concerted microbial-mammalian host cometabolism and indicate an age-related association with the balance of host-microbiome metabolism.

Do interviewer and physician health ratings predict mortality?: a comparison with self-rated health.

BACKGROUND: Despite the serious biases that characterize self-rated health, researchers rely heavily on these ratings to predict mortality. Using newly collected survey data, we examine whether simple ratings of participants' health provided by interviewers and physicians can markedly improve mortality prediction. METHODS: We use data from a prospective cohort study based on a nationally representative sample of older adults in Taiwan. We estimate proportional-hazard models of all-cause mortality between the 2006 interview and 30 June 2011 (mean 4.7 years' follow-up). RESULTS: Interviewer ratings were more strongly associated with mortality than physician or self-ratings, even after controlling for a wide range of covariates. Neither respondent nor physician ratings substantially improve mortality prediction in models that include interviewer ratings. The predictive power of interviewer ratings likely arises in part from interviewers' incorporation of information about the respondents' physical and mental health into their assessments. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study support the routine inclusion of a simple question at the end of face-to-face interviews, comparable to self-rated health, asking interviewers to provide an assessment of respondents' overall health. The costs of such an undertaking are minimal and the potential gains substantial for demographic and health researchers. Future work should explore the strength of the link between interviewer ratings and mortality in other countries and in surveys that collect less detailed information on respondent health, functioning, and well-being.

Perceived stress and mortality in a Taiwanese older adult population.

Perceived stress is associated with poor health outcomes including negative affect, increased susceptibility to the common cold and cardiovascular disease; the consequences of perceived stress for mortality, however, have received less attention. This study characterizes the relationship between perceived stress and 11-year mortality in a population of Taiwanese adults aged 53+ years. Using the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Near Elderly and Elderly of Taiwan, we calculated a composite measure of perceived stress based on six items pertaining to the health, financial situation, and occupation of the respondents and their families. Proportional hazard models were used to determine whether perceived stress predicted mortality. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors only, we found that a one standard deviation increase in perceived stress was associated with a 19% increase in all-cause mortality risk during the 11-year follow-up period (hazard ratio, HR = 1.19, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.13-1.26). The relationship was greatly attenuated when perceptions of stress regarding health were excluded, and was not significant after adjusting for medical conditions, mobility limitations and depressive symptoms. We conclude that the association between perceived stress and mortality is explained by an individual's current health; however, our data do not allow us to distinguish between two possible interpretations of this conclusion: (a) the relationship between perceived stress and mortality is spurious, or (b) poor health acts as the mediator.

Perceived stress and biological risk: is the link stronger in Russians than in Taiwanese and Americans?

Allostatic load theory implies a relationship between exposure to psychological stress and multi-system physiological dysregulation. We used data from population-based samples of men and women in Russia (Moscow; n = 1800; age, mean 68.6 years), Taiwan (n = 1036; 65.6 years) and the United States (US; n = 1054; 58.0 years) -- which are likely to vary widely with respect to levels of stress exposure and biological markers -- to determine the magnitude of the association between perceived stress and physiological dysregulation. The measure of overall dysregulation was based on 15 markers including standard cardiovascular/metabolic risk factors as well as markers of inflammation and neuroendocrine activity. Subjective psychological stress was measured by the perceived stress scale. Only the Moscow sample demonstrated a positive association with overall dysregulation in both sexes. In the US, we found an association among women but not men. Among the Taiwanese, who report the lowest perceived stress, there was no association in women but an unexpected inverse relationship in men. The effects also varied across system-level subscores: the association with perceived stress was most consistent for standard cardiovascular/metabolic factors. Perceived stress was associated with inflammation and neuroendocrine activity in some samples. Although the evidence that perceived stress is the primary source of physiological dysregulation is generally modest, it was stronger in Russia where the level of perceived stress was particularly high. For Russia only, we had information about heart function based on a 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram; perceived stress was consistently associated with heart rate dysregulation in Russian men and women.

Does exposure to stressors predict changes in physiological dysregulation?

BACKGROUND: The allostatic load framework implies that cumulative exposure to stressors results in multi-system physiological dysregulation. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of stress burden on subsequent changes (2000-2006) in physiological dysregulation. METHODS: Data came from a population-based cohort study in Taiwan (n = 521, aged 54+ in 2000, re-examined in 2006). Measures of stressful events and chronic strain were based on questions asked in 1996, 1999, and 2000. A measure of trauma was based on exposure to the 1999 earthquake. Dysregulation was based on 17 biomarkers (e.g., metabolic, inflammatory, neuroendocrine). RESULTS: There were some small effects among men: chronic strain was associated with subsequent increases in dysregulation (standardized ß = 0.08, 95 % CI = 0.01 to 0.20), particularly inflammation; life events were also associated with increased inflammation (ß = 0.10, CI = 0.01 to 0.26). There were no significant effects in women. CONCLUSIONS: We found weak evidence that stress burden is associated with changes in dysregulation.

Underestimation of adolescent obesity.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies assessing the validity of adolescent self-reported height and weight for estimating obesity prevalence have not accounted for, potential bias due to nonresponse in self-reports. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the implications of selective nonresponse in self-reports of height and weight for estimates of adolescent obesity. METHODS: The authors analyzed 613 adolescents ages 12-17 years from the 2006-2008 Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey, a longitudinal study of Los Angeles County households with an oversample of poor neighborhoods. Obesity prevalence estimates were compared based on (a) self-report, (b) measured height and weight for those who did report, and (c) measured height and weight for those who did report. RESULTS: Among younger teens, measured obesity prevalence was higher for those who did not report height and weight compared with those who did (40% vs. 30%). Consequently, obesity prevalence based on self-reported height and weight underestimated measured prevalence by 12 percentage points (when accounting for nonresponse) versus 9 percentage points (when nonresponse was not accounted for). Results were robust to the choice of difference child growth references. DISCUSSION: Adolescent obesity surveillance and prevention efforts must take into account selective nonresponse for self-reported height and weight, particularly for younger teens. Results should be replicated in a nationally representative sample.

Sex differences in trajectories of depressive symptoms among older Taiwanese: the contribution of selected stressors and social factors.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed female-male differences in depressive symptoms among older Taiwanese and quantified the contribution of sex differences in exposure and response to selected covariates in explaining the gap. METHODS: Using data from six survey waves over 18 years for a nationally representative cohort of 4049 Taiwanese aged 60+, we employed growth curve analysis to model individual-level trajectories of depressive symptoms across age. RESULTS: Among older Taiwanese, women's disadvantage with respect to social position and employment accounted for about 40% of the sex difference in depressive symptoms. Sex differences in decision control and exposure to widowhood and financial decline played surprisingly little role. Although we found no evidence that the effects of marriage, recent widowhood or recent child death varied by sex, living apart from one's children appeared to be more detrimental for women than for men in this society. Moreover, the effect of living with children depended on the arrangement: living with an unmarried son was more strongly associated with depressive symptoms than living with a married son and daughter-in-law. CONCLUSION: Sex differentials in social position and employment are major contributors to the sex difference in depressive symptoms among older Taiwanese, yet sex differences in exposure or response to selected stressors appear to play little role. Differential vulnerabilities to particular living arrangements may also contribute to women's excess psychological distress, although more research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms by which living arrangements influence depressive symptoms in Taiwan.

Physical Work Exposures of Older Workers: Does Measurement Make a Difference?

Physically demanding work at later ages, which is especially prevalent among disadvantaged groups, is associated with long-term health outcomes and may contribute to health inequality over the life course. Past studies of these issues have relied on occupational characteristics from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET), but few have assessed how O*NET compares to survey reports when measuring occupational exposures in analyses of socioeconomic status, work conditions, and health. We compare Health and Retirement Study (HRS, N = 16,683 working respondents) and O*NET measurements of general physical activity, frequency of lifting/handling objects, and frequency of stooping-related postures required at work. Pearson correlations between the HRS items and corresponding O*NET items vary from weak to moderate for lifting/handling and stooping-related postures to relatively large for general physical activity. Though they are measured on different scales, both the HRS and O*NET measures of physical demands reveal similar sex, racial/ethnic, and educational differentials in exposure to physically strenuous work. We fit random effects Poisson models to assess how these measures predict accumulation of functional limitations, a potential long-term consequence of strenuous working conditions. Comparable HRS and O*NET measures have similar associations with functional limitations. We also consider an average of physical demand items available in O*NET, finding that this measure has similar associations with functional limitations as the O*NET measure of general physical activity. These results suggest that O*NET characteristics and HRS respondent reports produce comparable disparities in physical work exposures (PWEs) and associations between physically demanding work and declines in physical functioning.