Predicting ICU Mortality in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Patients Using Machine Learning: The Predicting Outcome and STratifiCation of severity in ARDS (POSTCARDS) Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the value of machine learning approaches in the development of a multivariable model for early prediction of ICU death in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). DESIGN: A development, testing, and external validation study using clinical data from four prospective, multicenter, observational cohorts. SETTING: A network of multidisciplinary ICUs. PATIENTS: A total of 1,303 patients with moderate-to-severe ARDS managed with lung-protective ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed and tested prediction models in 1,000 ARDS patients. We performed logistic regression analysis following variable selection by a genetic algorithm, random forest and extreme gradient boosting machine learning techniques. Potential predictors included demographics, comorbidities, ventilatory and oxygenation descriptors, and extrapulmonary organ failures. Risk modeling identified some major prognostic factors for ICU mortality, including age, cancer, immunosuppression, Pa o2 /F io2 , inspiratory plateau pressure, and number of extrapulmonary organ failures. Together, these characteristics contained most of the prognostic information in the first 24 hours to predict ICU mortality. Performance with machine learning methods was similar to logistic regression (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.91). External validation in an independent cohort of 303 ARDS patients confirmed that the performance of the model was similar to a logistic regression model (AUC, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Both machine learning and traditional methods lead to promising models to predict ICU death in moderate/severe ARDS patients. More research is needed to identify markers for severity beyond clinical determinants, such as demographics, comorbidities, lung mechanics, oxygenation, and extrapulmonary organ failure to guide patient management.

Depression and anxiety in systemic lupus erythematosus: A case-control study on prevalence and associated factors in a single-center cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence of self-perceived depression and anxiety in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and to explore associated factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of unselected patients with SLE (ACR-97 criteria) and controls with chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases. Both completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Demographic and clinical characteristics, comorbidity, and treatments were collected, and a multivariate analysis was performed to explore factors associated with depression and anxiety in SLE. RESULTS: The study population comprised 172 patients and 215 controls. Women accounted for 93% of the patients with SLE. Fibromyalgia was recorded in 12.8% and a history of depression in 17%. According to HADS, 37.2% fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for depression and 58.7% those for anxiety; prevalence was similar in the controls (32.6% and 55.1%, respectively). Up to a third of patients with self-perceived depression were not receiving antidepressants. There was no concordance between a previous history of depression and current depression. In the multivariate model, current depression was associated with single marital status (OR 2.69; 95% CI: 1.17-6.42; p = .022), fibromyalgia (7.69; 2.35-30.72; p = .001), smoking (3.12; 1.24-8.07; p = .016), severity of SLE (0.76; 0.6-0.94; p = .016), and organ damage (1.27; 1.01-1.61; p = .042). Current anxiety was only associated with fibromyalgia (3.97; 1.21-17.98; p = .036). CONCLUSIONS: Depression and anxiety are most likely underdiagnosed in SLE. Prevalence appears to be similar to that of other chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases. Anxiety is associated with fibromyalgia, while depression is also associated with single marital status, smoking, organ damage, and severity of SLE.

Analysis of ANRIL Isoforms and Key Genes in Patients with Severe Coronary Artery Disease.

ANRIL (Antisense Noncoding RNA in the INK4 Locus), also named CDKN2B-AS1, is a long non-coding RNA with outstanding functions that regulates genes involved in atherosclerosis development. ANRIL genotypes and the expression of linear and circular isoforms have been associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). The CDKN2A and the CDKN2B genes at the CDKN2A/B locus encode the Cyclin-Dependent Kinase inhibitor protein (CDKI) p16INK4a and the p53 regulatory protein p14ARF, which are involved in cell cycle regulation, aging, senescence, and apoptosis. Abnormal ANRIL expression regulates vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) gene expression, and upregulated Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) promotes angiogenesis by activating the NF-κB signaling pathway. Here, we explored associations between determinations of the linear, circular, and linear-to-circular ANRIL gene expression ratio, CDKN2A, VEGF and its receptor kinase insert domain-containing receptor (KDR) and cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mortality in high-risk coronary patients before they undergo coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). We found that the expression of ANRIL isoforms may help in the prediction of CAD outcomes. Linear isoforms were correlated with a worse cardiovascular risk profile while the expression of circular isoforms of ANRIL correlated with a decrease in oxidative stress. However, the determination of the linear versus circular ratio of ANRIL did not report additional information to that determined by the evaluation of individual isoforms. Although the expressions of the VEFG and KDR genes correlated with a decrease in oxidative stress, in binary logistic regression analysis it was observed that only the expression of linear isoforms of ANRIL and VEGF significantly contributed to the prediction of the number of surgical revascularizations.

Validation of thrombotic risk factors in 1381 patients with essential thrombocythaemia: A multicentre retrospective real-life study.

Thrombosis and haemorrhage are frequent in patients with essential thrombocythaemia (ET). The 2016 revised International Prognostic Score for Thrombosis in Essential Thrombocythaemia-thrombosis (r-IPSET-t) score stratifies patients into very-low- (VLR), low- (LR), intermediate- (IR) and high-risk (HR) groups. We validated the r-IPSET-t in the biggest population of patients with ET (n = 1381) to date and found it to be a better fit than the earlier IPSET-t score. With an average follow-up of 87.7 months, there were 0.578 thrombotic events/person-year and 0.286 bleeding events/person-year after diagnosis. The 10-year thrombosis-free survival was 88% and 99% for the r-IPSET-t LR and VLR groups (p < 0.001). Cytoreduction was a thrombotic risk factor in younger patients (aged <60 years, hazard ratio 9.49, p = 0.026; aged ≥60 years, hazard ratio 1.04, p = 0.93). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, anti-aggregation after diagnosis was protective for thrombosis (hazard ratio 0.31, p = 0.005) but a risk factor for major bleeding (hazard ratio 10.56, p = 0.021). Of the IPSET-t HR and LR groups, 132/780 and 249/301 were re-classified as LR and VLR respectively (p < 0.001). The European LeukemiaNET (ELN) does not recommend aspirin for VLR patients but in this real-life analysis 83.1% of VLR patients received it. Our results validate the r-IPSET-t score as more predictive for thrombosis than the ELN-recommended IPSET-t and raise concerns about unnecessary cytoreductive and anti-aggregative therapy.

Gamma-glutamyl transferase and cardiovascular events in patients with congenital heart disease.

INTRODUCTION: Serum gamma-glutamyl transferase activity (GGT) seems to predict cardiovascular events in different populations. However, no data exist on patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). METHODS: Observational, analytic, prospective cohort study design involving CHD patients and a control population to determine the effect of GGT levels on survival. RESULTS: A total of 589 CHD patients (58% males, 29 ± 14 years old) and 2745 matched control patients were followed up. A total of 69 (12%) CHD patients had a major acute cardiovascular event (MACE) during the follow-up time (6.1 [0.7-10.4] years). Patients with CHD and a GGT >60 U/L were significantly older, more hypertensive and dyslipidemic, had a worse NYHA functional class and a greater anatomical complexity than CHD patients with a GGT ≤60 U/L. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that age, a great CHD anatomical complexity, and having atrial fibrillation/flutter were the predictive factors of higher GGT levels (>60 U/L). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with CHD and a GGT concentration above 60 UL showed the lowest probability of survival compared to that of CHD with GGT ≤60 U/L and controls irrespective of their GGT concentrations (p < .001). Similarly, the multivariable Cox regression analysis found an independent association between higher GGT levels (>60 U/L) and a worse prognosis (HR 2.44 [1.34-4.44], p = .003) among patients with CHD. CONCLUSION: Patients with CHD showed significant higher GGT levels than patients in the control group having those with higher GGT concentrations (>60 U/L) the worst survival.

Clinical relevance of circulating angiogenic cells in patients with ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are circulating angiogenic cells with endothelial features associated with risk for stroke. We aimed to delve into their functional characteristics. EPCs were isolated and cultured from Ischemic Stroke (IS) patients and predictors of their variance evaluated. METHODS: This is a single-center observational study evaluating 187 consecutively hospitalized patients with IS. EPCs were isolated from blood samples. The number of circulating angiogenic cells (CACs), colony-forming units (CFU-ECs) and the emergence of late outgrowths endothelial cells (LOECs) were counted. We collected clinical variables and measured the stromal cell-derived factor 1 alpha (SDF1α) serum levels. We also examined the relative telomere length and the expression of osteogenic gene markers in CACs. RESULTS: CACs counts and CFU-ECs colony numbers were positively correlated (rho = 0.41, p < 0.001, n = 187). We found significant differences according to whether thrombolytic treatment was performed in the distribution of CFU-ECs (odds ratio (OR) = 2.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-6.35; p = 0.042) and CACs (OR = 4.45; 95% IC 1.2-15.5; p = 0.012). The main determinants of CACs variation were the number of risks factors, thrombolysis treatment, arterial hypertension, LOECs occurrence, and the vascular endothelial growth factor expression, whereas CFU-ECs variations depended on hemoglobin content and the relative reduction in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) criteria. The main predictors of LOECs appearance were thrombolysis and length of hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the relevance of patient risk factors and treatments in the analysis of the functional properties of EPCs.

Stratification for Identification of Prognostic Categories In the Acute RESpiratory Distress Syndrome (SPIRES) Score.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a scoring model for stratifying patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome into risk categories (Stratification for identification of Prognostic categories In the acute RESpiratory distress syndrome score) for early prediction of death in the ICU, independent of the underlying disease and cause of death. DESIGN: A development and validation study using clinical data from four prospective, multicenter, observational cohorts. SETTING: A network of multidisciplinary ICUs. PATIENTS: One-thousand three-hundred one patients with moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome managed with lung-protective ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The study followed Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines for prediction models. We performed logistic regression analysis, bootstrapping, and internal-external validation of prediction models with variables collected within 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis in 1,000 patients for model development. Primary outcome was ICU death. The Stratification for identification of Prognostic categories In the acute RESpiratory distress syndrome score was based on patient's age, number of extrapulmonary organ failures, values of end-inspiratory plateau pressure, and ratio of Pao2 to Fio2 assessed at 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis. The pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve across internal-external validations was 0.860 (95% CI, 0.831-0.890). External validation in a new cohort of 301 acute respiratory distress syndrome patients confirmed the accuracy and robustness of the scoring model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.870; 95% CI, 0.829-0.911). The Stratification for identification of Prognostic categories In the acute RESpiratory distress syndrome score stratified patients in three distinct prognostic classes and achieved better prediction of ICU death than ratio of Pao2 to Fio2 at acute respiratory distress syndrome onset or at 24 hours, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scale. CONCLUSIONS: The Stratification for identification of Prognostic categories In the acute RESpiratory distress syndrome score represents a novel strategy for early stratification of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients into prognostic categories and for selecting patients for therapeutic trials.

The incidence of skin melanoma in Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain) is lower than expected in Southern Europe despite high-risk environmental conditions: an island-wide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The Canary Islands are a leading European touristic destination. The ultraviolet index (UVI) in the region is the highest in Spain, and similar to indexes registered in Australia and New Zealand, which hold the highest incidence of skin melanoma worldwide. Yet according to cancer registry data, the incidence in the Canary Islands in the late 1990s was the lowest in Spain (among the lowest in Europe) and about six times lower than in New Zealand. PURPOSE: To analyze the incidence rates of skin melanoma in Gran Canaria island between 2007 and 2018. METHODS: The study was based in the two centres of the Canary Islands' Healthcare Service centralizing melanoma care in Gran Canaria. We analyzed crude and age-standardized (ASR) incidence rates of invasive cutaneous melanoma for the period 2007-2018 following the inclusion criteria of the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Clinical and histological characteristics of melanoma patients were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 1058 patients were included. The incidence rates obtained matched the latest available Canary Islands' cancer registry data, confirming its reliability (ASR, Segi-Doll world standard population: 6.4 cases per 100,000 habitants for 2008-2012). The incidence was also below the latest IARC predictions for Southern Europe (GLOBOCAN 2018). Histological characteristics of patients were similar to other Southern European series. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of skin melanoma in Gran Canaria is unexpectedly low for a Southern European population exposed to such a high UVI. Further research in the Canary Islands could provide insight into a better understanding of melanoma pathogenesis.

The risk of thrombosis in essential thrombocythemia is associated with the type of CALR mutation: A multicentre collaborative study.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET), after the JAK2V617F driver mutation, mutations in CALR are common (classified as type 1, 52-bp deletion or type 2, 5-bp insertion). CALR mutations have generally been associated with a lower risk of thrombosis. This study aimed to confirm the impact of CALR mutation type on thrombotic risk. METHODS: We retrospectively investigated 983 ET patients diagnosed in Spanish and Polish hospitals. RESULTS: With 7.5 years of median follow-up from diagnosis, 155 patients (15.8%) had one or more thrombotic event. The 5-year thrombosis-free survival (TFS) rate was 83.8%, 91.6% and 93.9% for the JAK2V617F, CALR-type 1 and CALR-type 2 groups, respectively (P = .002). Comparing CALR-type 1 and CALR-type 2 groups, TFS for venous thrombosis was lower in CALR-type 1 (P = .046), with no difference in TFS for arterial thrombosis observed. The cumulative incidence of thrombosis was significantly different comparing JAK2V617F vs CALR-type 2 groups but not JAK2V617F vs CALR-type 1 groups. Moreover, CALR-type 2 mutation was a statistically significant protective factor for thrombosis with respect to JAK2V617F in multivariate logistic regression (OR: 0.45, P = .04) adjusted by age. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that CALR mutation type has prognostic value for the stratification of thrombotic risk in ET patients.

Malnutrition is independently associated with an increased risk of major cardiovascular events in adult patients with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Malnutrition is found frequently during chronic diseases, and its prevalence and relation to disease outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort of 393 consecutive stable congenital heart disease (CHD) patients was followed up in a single dedicated clinical unit. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters, along with a nutritional risk index (NRI), were studied, as well as major acute cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as arterial thrombotic events, heart failure requiring hospitalization or cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. The median age of the patients was 23 years (17-35) and 225 (57%) were males. Median plasma albumin concentration was 4.5 (4.2-4.7) g/dL, the body mass index was 23 (21-27) kg/m2, the NRI was 112 (106-118), and 33 (8%) patients showed malnutrition (NIR<100). A worse NYHA functional class (II and III), total cholesterol and serum glucose levels were significant risk factors associated with malnutrition (NRI<100) in CHD patients. During a median follow-up of 8 (5-10) years, 39 (10%) CHD patients suffered a MACE. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that older patients (years) [HR 1.06 (1.04-1.09), p < 0.001], CHD patients with great anatomical complexity [HR 4.24 (2.17-8.27), p < 0.001] and those with a lower NRI [HR 0.95 (0.93-0.98), p = 0.001] had a significant worse MACE-free survival, being the NRI a better predictor of MACE than albumin concentration. CONCLUSIONS: A low NRI is independently associated with a significant increased risk of MACE in CHD patients.

Rotational forceps: a retrospective study evaluating anatomical and functional consequences for the pelvic floor.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: The use of Kielland's rotational forceps is considered to involve greater technical difficulty and may be associated with a higher rate of pelvic floor trauma. Our main objective was to evaluate the association between avulsion of the levator muscle and rotational and non-rotational forceps. METHODS: This was an observational study carried out at a tertiary hospital that recruited singleton cephalic vaginally primiparous women with previous Kielland's forceps delivery between March 2012 and May 2017. Patients were retrieved from a local database, contacted consecutively and blinded to all clinical data. Power calculations determined a sample of n = 160 patients. All women underwent a urogynecological interview, clinical examination and 4D translabial ultrasound (TLUS). The 4D TLUS volumes were stored and analyzed offline by an experienced ultrasound examiner who was blinded to all clinical data. RESULTS: A total of 165 patients were available for analysis. Rotational forceps accounted for 27.3% (45 out of 165) of the study sample. Avulsion was present in 41.8% (69 out of 165) of all forceps deliveries. On multivariate analysis, rotational forceps was associated with avulsion, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 2.57 (CI 95% 1.20-5.62, p = 0.016). Body mass index at the beginning of gestation was found to be a protective factor, with an adjusted OR of 0.918 (CI 95% 0.847-0.986, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: Rotational forceps is associated with a higher avulsion rate than non-rotational forceps, with an adjusted OR of over 2.5. Obstetricians need to consider the potential long-term consequences of performing a rotational forceps for mothers.

Tobacco smoking is an independent factor associated with retinal damage in systemic lupus erythematosus: a cross-sectional and retrospective study.

To analyze the influence of tobacco smoking on systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) clinical features and damage. Cross-sectional and retrospective, case-control study comparing SLE patients with and without tobacco exposure. Cumulative clinical data and comorbidities were collected, and severity (Katz index) and damage (SLICC/ACR damage index) (SDI) indices were calculated. Pack-years (PY) was used to estimate lifetime tobacco exposure. A logistic regression was carried out to explore the impact of tobacco use on retinal damage. 216 patients were included. The mean age was 49 years (± 12.7), 93% were females, and median disease duration was 17 years [interquartile range (IQR):9-25]. Fifty-three percent of patients were smokers at some point. The median PY was 13 (IQR: 6-20.5). Only 54.8% of active smokers recalled having been informed of the negative effects of smoking, versus 83.3% of never smokers (< 0.001). In a bivariant analysis, an association between tobacco use at any time and discoid lupus [OR: 3.5(95%CI 1.5-8.9); p = 0.002] photosensitivity [OR: 2.06(95%CI 1.16-3.7); p = 0.01] and peripheral arteriopathy (p = 0.007) was found. Considering SDI item by item, a significant association with retinal damage, adjusted for age [OR: 1.03(95%CI 1-1.07); p = 0.04], was found. Using PYs, an association was found with discoid lupus (p = 0.01), photosensitivity (p = 0.03) and peripheral arteriopathy (p = 0.01), global SDI > 0 (p = 0.002) and retinal damage (p = 0.02). In a multivariate analysis exploring factors associated with retinal damage, any previous smoking history and SDI remained associated with retinal damage. Tobacco smoking is associated with cutaneous manifestations and damage and is an independent predictor of retinal damage in SLE patients.

Systemic Effects Induced by Hyperoxia in a Preclinical Model of Intra-abdominal Sepsis.

Supplemental oxygen is a supportive treatment in patients with sepsis to balance tissue oxygen delivery and demand in the tissues. However, hyperoxia may induce some pathological effects. We sought to assess organ damage associated with hyperoxia and its correlation with the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in a preclinical model of intra-abdominal sepsis. For this purpose, sepsis was induced in male, Sprague-Dawley rats by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). We randomly assigned experimental animals to three groups: control (healthy animals), septic (CLP), and sham-septic (surgical intervention without CLP). At 18 h after CLP, septic (n = 39), sham-septic (n = 16), and healthy (n = 24) animals were placed within a sealed Plexiglas cage and randomly distributed into four groups for continuous treatment with 21%, 40%, 60%, or 100% oxygen for 24 h. At the end of the experimental period, we evaluated serum levels of cytokines, organ damage biomarkers, histological examination of brain and lung tissue, and ROS production in each surviving animal. We found that high oxygen concentrations increased IL-6 and biomarkers of organ damage levels in septic animals, although no relevant histopathological lung or brain damage was observed. Healthy rats had an increase in IL-6 and aspartate aminotransferase at high oxygen concentration. IL-6 levels, but not ROS levels, are correlated with markers of organ damage. In our study, the use of high oxygen concentrations in a clinically relevant model of intra-abdominal sepsis was associated with enhanced inflammation and organ damage. These findings were unrelated to ROS release into circulation. Hyperoxia could exacerbate sepsis-induced inflammation, and it could be by itself detrimental. Our study highlights the need of developing safer thresholds for oxygen therapy.

A Prognostic Enrichment Strategy for Selection of Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Clinical Trials.

OBJECTIVES: Incomplete or ambiguous evidence for identifying high-risk patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome for enrollment into randomized controlled trials has come at the cost of an unreasonable number of negative trials. We examined a set of selected variables early in acute respiratory distress syndrome to determine accurate prognostic predictors for selecting high-risk patients for randomized controlled trials. DESIGN: A training and testing study using a secondary analysis of data from four prospective, multicenter, observational studies. SETTING: A network of multidisciplinary ICUs. PATIENTS: We studied 1,200 patients with moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome managed with lung-protective ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We evaluated different thresholds for patient's age, PaO2/FIO2, plateau pressure, and number of extrapulmonary organ failures to predict ICU outcome at 24 hours of acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis. We generated 1,000 random scenarios as training (n = 900, 75% of population) and testing (n = 300, 25% of population) datasets and averaged the logistic coefficients for each scenario. Thresholds for age (< 50, 50-70, > 70 yr), PaO2/FIO2 (≤ 100, 101-150, > 150 mm Hg), plateau pressure (< 29, 29-30, > 30 cm H2O), and number of extrapulmonary organ failure (< 2, 2, > 2) stratified accurately acute respiratory distress syndrome patients into categories of risk. The model that included all four variables proved best to identify patients with the highest or lowest risk of death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.88). Decision tree analyses confirmed the accuracy and robustness of this enrichment model. CONCLUSIONS: Combined thresholds for patient's age, PaO2/FIO2, plateau pressure, and extrapulmonary organ failure provides prognostic enrichment accuracy for stratifying and selecting acute respiratory distress syndrome patients for randomized controlled trials.

Is Overall Mortality the Right Composite Endpoint in Clinical Trials of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome?

OBJECTIVES: Overall mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome is a composite endpoint because it includes death from multiple causes. In most acute respiratory distress syndrome trials, it is unknown whether reported deaths are due to acute respiratory distress syndrome or the underlying disease, unrelated to the specific intervention tested. We investigated the causes of death after contracting acute respiratory distress syndrome in a large cohort. DESIGN: A secondary analysis from three prospective, multicenter, observational studies. SETTING: A network of multidisciplinary ICUs. PATIENTS: We studied 778 patients with moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome treated with lung-protective ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We examined death in the ICU from individual causes. Overall ICU mortality was 38.8% (95% CI, 35.4-42.3). Causes of acute respiratory distress syndrome modified the risk of death. Twenty-three percent of deaths occurred from refractory hypoxemia due to nonresolving acute respiratory distress syndrome. Most patients died from causes unrelated to acute respiratory distress syndrome: 48.7% of nonsurvivors died from multisystem organ failure, and cancer or brain injury was involved in 37.1% of deaths. When quantifying the true burden of acute respiratory distress syndrome outcome, we identified 506 patients (65.0%) with one or more exclusion criteria for enrollment into current interventional trials. Overall ICU mortality of the "trial cohort" (21.3%) was markedly lower than the parent cohort (relative risk, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43-0.70; p < 0.000001). CONCLUSIONS: Most deaths in acute respiratory distress syndrome patients are not directly related to lung damage but to extrapulmonary multisystem organ failure. It would be challenging to prove that specific lung-directed therapies have an effect on overall survival.

Early Transthoracic Echocardiography after Cardiac Surgery Predicts Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation.

PURPOSE: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is frequent after cardiac surgery. We aimed to establish a predictive model of POAF based on postoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) findings. METHODS: This study included 147 patients (aged 67 ± 11 years; 109 men) undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or aortic valve replacement. TTE and Doppler tissue imaging were performed on intensive care unit arrival after surgery. All patients were continuously monitored during hospitalization. The end point was the appearance of POAF. RESULTS: POAF appeared in 37 patients (25.2%). These patients were older (69 ± 16 vs. 65 ± 12 years; P < 0.001) and had increased long axis of the left atrium (LA) dimension (5.4 ± 1 vs. 4.8 ± 0.9 cm, P = 0.02), lower early diastolic velocity of the mitral annulus (e') (6.9 ± 2.1 vs. 8 ± 1.8 cm/sec; P < 0.01), and higher early diastolic pulsed Doppler mitral ratio (E)/e' (E/e') (17.4 ± 6.8 vs. 13.8 ± 6; P = 0.01). Left ventricle diastolic dysfunction grade (DFG) of 2 or 3 relative to grade 0 was significant: odds ratio (OR) 22.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.52-57.2; P < 0.001, and OR: 23.6, 95% CI: 3.57-60.1; P = 0.001), respectively. On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of POAF were age (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01-1.18; P < 0.05), long-axis LA dimension (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 1.97-8.23; P = 0.0017), DFG-2 (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 1.57-15.81; P < 0.001), and DFG-3 (OR: 8.3, 95% CI: 4.11-25.37; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Apart from age, the simple determination by postoperative TTE of long-axis LA dimension and DFG after cardiac surgery proved to be powerful independent predictors of POAF and may be useful for risk stratification of these patients.